The battle for Mosul has finally begun. Prime Minister
Haidar Abadi announced
the beginning of the operation on October 16. Kurdish President Massoud Barzani
called it a “historic day,” and it was. While the Islamic State still holds
territory in western Anbar along the Syrian border and the Hawija and Riyad
areas of southern Kirkuk, Mosul is the organization’s unofficial capital. It
was the first major city that the group took when it launched its summer
offensive in 2014, and holds great symbolic significance for both it and the
Iraqi government. Taking it back will not mean the death knell of IS, but it
will be a huge setback to lose a key piece in its caliphate.
Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi promised to free Mosul by the end
of the year, so there was immense pressure to get the forces in place and reach
a broad agreement amongst all the stakeholders, facilitated
by the United States, about their different roles. As a result, the Iraqi
Security Forces (ISF) is supposed to be
the only ones that enter Mosul itself. The Peshmerga and Hashd
are to hold the perimeter. The fear is that if either of those two would go
into the city it could turn the population against not only the liberating
forces, but the government as well. As Michael Knights of the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy recently noted
this operation offers Baghdad a great opportunity to win over the population of
Mosul, which has been a hotbed of anti-government and insurgent activity since
the U.S. invasion.
The question as ever is whether these agreements will hold.
A similar
one was made before the Fallujah operation that the Hashd would stay out of
the city. As it turned out, Badr members in the Federal Police took
part in the battle. The Hashd also claimed
that they fought to liberate the Jolan neighborhood in the north of the city.
Mosul is such a prize to all the forces involved that they may not be able to
resist the temptation to enter it.
That also hints at the difficulties that might emerge after
Mosul is taken. Many of the fighting parties would like to claim the city and
parts of Ninewa as well. The central government wants to re-integrate Mosul into
the country after it has been under the Islamic State’s control for two years.
The Kurds may not be interested in running the city itself, but are interested
in annexing much of the territory around it and to the south that they say are
parts of the disputed areas. Masrour Barzani for example, the son of the
Kurdish president said that they
would not give up any of the land that it freed from the militants. In turn, members
of the pro-Iranian factions of the Hashd have responded
that they would not allow the Kurds to seize anything during the Mosul
offensive. Former Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi would also like to play a part
in his attempt to return to power. As a result, his Hashd al-Watani expressed that they
would join in the campaign. He and the Barzanis’ Kurdistan Democratic Party
(KDP) are aligned with Turkey, which has a small camp in Bashiqa to the
northeast. It wants to use the offensive to assert its hegemony over Ninewa.
There is also the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) from Turkey, which is based in
Sinjar to the west. They have said
that they too will attack Mosul along with their Yazidi allies. While some
suggested that Mosul should be put off due to all of these conflicting agendas
and some sort of political deal be made beforehand that probably would have not
worked. Whatever agreement was made could have been overturned by facts on the
ground after the battle was over. Negotiations on the future of Mosul and
Ninewa therefore are best done afterward.
The actual campaign could be a long one. That’s due to the
sheer size of Mosul, which is almost as big as Baghdad. Surrounding it and
coordinating between the various groups, many of which do not get along could
be a difficult task.
So far the Iraqi forces are advancing along two axes, with
the Kurds in the east. Up to 10,000
Peshmerga have set out along the Irbil-Mosul highway. They entered
the Khazir area heading towards Bartella and Hamdaniya. The Islamic State set
oil wells in the latter on fire to try to
prevent air strikes by blocking aerial views of the battlefield. The Kurds claimed
they freed ten
villages on the first day. In the process they fought off several car
and suicide
bombings. The press reported that a total of 8 Peshmerga were killed and 11
wounded in the process.
To the south the ISF and Hashd are moving forward from its
base in Qayara. The elite Golden Division and army brigades are going up
the eastern side of the Tigris River, which leads to Mosul, while other army
units and Interior Ministry forces are to the east of the river. The army’s 9th
Division said that it liberated
six villages on October 16. The ISF also claimed
to have killed six suicide bombes. Overall, the media reported that one soldier
lots his life and two others were injured during the fighting.
It didn’t appear that there were many IS fighters on either
axis. In at least one village it was said
that people rose up against the Islamic State and expelled them.
Until the joint forces reach Mosul itself the areas to the
west are still under the insurgents control. That will give them an escape
route. One Iraqi official told the Washington Post that they were hoping that
the militants would give up and flee that way, while an Iraqi general said that
the western regions would be targeted by Iraqi aircraft to kill IS elements
that might be moving through there.
In Mosul itself there are continued stories of hardships.
Its been said
that there are only a few hours of electricity available, some areas lack
running water, the schools did not open this year, and that IS is carrying out
recruiting drives of both young and old to bolster their defenses. Kurdish
sources claimed that up to 300 suspected IS deserters have been caught in the
last month amongst displaced people. Finally, there are many reports of
resistance groups carrying out scattered attacks upon IS in Mosul and the
surrounding areas. Islamic State propaganda
on the other hand, is trying to portray life as going on normally within the
city.
Overall, the first day of the Mosul operation made good
progress with little resistance. That will likely change in the coming period
when the insurgents’ first line of defense is met. When the city itself is
reached the sheer size of it will also pose new challenges as well. The Fallujah
campaign however may show that Mosul will go down quicker than some believe. In
the former, most of the residents remained in the city along with IS families
and leadership. That meant that the group could not build its usual defense in
depth right into the heart of the urban areas because there were people in the
way. The group for example, couldn’t lay down IED fields in populated districts
or booby trap as many homes. What civilians can be used for are human shields,
but that is no substitute for sound military preparations. In the end, the city
will fall. It is only a matter of time.
SOURCES
Arango, Tim, “A Tour
of Falluja Reveals Grim Remnants of Life Under ISIS,” New York Times, 6/22/16
Bas News, “Sunni
Forces Trained by Turkey Participating in Mosul Assault: Official,” 10/17/16
eKurd, “Iraqi
Kurdistan News in brief – October 17, 2016,” 10/17/16
Iraqi News, “Forces
advance to liberate ISIS’ last bastion in central Fallujah,” 6/25/16
- “Iraqi Joint
forces liberate 6 villages near Mosul,” 10/17/16
- “Mosul offensive:
Iraqi army advances from eastern axis of Nineveh 4 villages liberated,”
10/17/16
- “Mosul offensive:
Peshmerga forces approach Bartella and Hamdaniyah,” 10/17/16
Kalin, Stephen and
Dmitry Zhdannikov, “Exclusive: U.S. helped clinch Iraq oil deal to keep Mosul
battle on track,” Reuters, 10/3/16
Al Mada, “The army
and the Peshmerga are moving to the east and south of Mosul .. Daesh are
preparing to move to the right coast of the city,” 10/17/16
- “The joint forces
isolating Fallujah after the liberation of Garma and Nuaimiya on the first day
of the start of the operation,” 5/23/16
- “Operations:
Hawija will not be freed first before the popular crowd is tasked with
cordoning off Mosul,” 10/17/16
Al
Masalah, "Six suicide bombers killed trying to storm the army lines south
of Mosul," 10/17/16
Morris, Loveday,
“Battle to banish Islamic State from Mosul could become a mess,” Washington
Post, 10/12/16
Morris, Loveday and
Fahim, Kareem, “Iraqi attack on Mosul begins as forces push toward Islamic
State stronghold,” Washington Post, 10/17/16
NINA, “Washington
Refuses PKK’s Participation in Mosul Operations,” 10/15/16
Nordland, Rod,
“Iraqi Forces Attack Mosul, a Beleaguered Stronghold for ISIS,” New York Times,
10/16/16
Osgood, Patrick and
Tahir, Rawaz, “Operation to liberate Mosul begins,” Iraq Oil Report, 10/17/16
Rudaw, “Live
Updates: the battle for Mosul,” 10/17/16
- “Sunni militia to
come under Peshmerga command for Mosul operation,” 10/4/16
Sattar, Sardar,
“Masrour Barzani: Peshmerga to Stay in Newly-liberated Areas,” Bas News,
10/17/16
Xinhua, “Iraqi
forces fighting all out to free Mosul from IS,” 10/17/16
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