Security In Iraq, Oct 8-14, 2016

The second week of October 2016 saw a general lull in violence in Iraq. The government forces were still at work in Hit Island in Anbar, while preparing for the offensive to take Mosul. The Islamic State continued to focus upon terrorism in Baghdad, but carried out no real counterattacks leading to the low numbers during the week.

There were 118 incidents reported in Iraq from October 8-14, 2016. That was one of the lowest figures recorded in the year and represents the ebb and flow seen throughout the year. Baghdad saw the most violence with 66 incidents. After that there were 14 in Kirkuk, 14 in Ninewa, 10 in Diyala, 6 in Anbar, 5 in Salahaddin, 2 in Babil, and 1 in Basra.

175 people were reported killed and 350 wounded during the week. 1 Sahwa, 4 Hashd, 14 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 156 civilians died and 2 Peshmerga, 4 Hashd, 32 ISF, and 312 civilians were injured. Baghdad was the deadliest province with 93 fatalities followed by 26 in Ninewa, 24 in Kirkuk, 14 in Diyala, 13 in Salahddin, 3 in Anbar, and 1 in Basra.

The Iraqi forces continued their campaign to clear the area from Ramadi to Haditha in central Anbar. The Hit Island district was declared freed after a month of fighting. Usually this provokes a large number of counter attacks by the Islamic State, but it only carried out five reported ones during the week. There were only 6 incidents total reported, leading to 3 fatalities and 12 wounded.

As violence has dropped off across the country it has picked up once again in Baghdad. Part of IS’s strategy is to give ground to the government, while regrouping in the rural areas, and carry out terrorist attacks in the capital to undermine the state’s standing. That has led to an average of 9-10 attacks per day in Baghdad province. There were 66 incidents with 93 dead and 285 injured in the second week of October. That included a car bomb at a checkpoint in the outer south and a suicide bombing in the north at a funeral. There were also 42 IEDs and 6 sticky bombs. There were 21 incidents each in the north and south where IS has been most active, especially in the outer towns. After that there were 13 incidents in the east, and 11 in the west.

Incidents in Diyala continued to go up and down. The deadliest was a suicide car bombing that left 9 dead and 11 wounded. Another suicide bomber was arrested. Nearly every week IS has attempted mass casualty attacks in the province. Overall there were 10 incidents, 14 dead and 17 injured.

Casualties have picked up in Kirkuk in recent weeks not because of fighting, but due to executions and displaced people being killed. This is because government forces are close to finally attacking Hawija in the southern section of the province, the last district under IS control. In response, IS executed 15 people with another 12 displaced people were killed and 28 wounded trying to escape militant areas. For the week there were 14 incidents leading to 25 people losing their lives and 29 wounded.

In Ninewa there was the usual mix of attacks upon government forces and executions by IS. A total of 18 people were killed by the organization in Mosul. It also carried out six attacks including a suicide bombing and three truck bombs all of which were defeated. Turkish artillery was also blamed for wounding three civilians. Ankara’s forces in the province became a huge controversy again during October when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not only said that Turkey would take part in the up coming Mosul operation after Baghdad’s objections, but then insulted Prime Minister Haidar Abadi by saying that the Iraqi leader was not on his level.

In previous weeks IS operations in Salahaddin were going up, but there was a dip the second week of October. The Islamic State carried out five low level attacks in the central and northern sections of the governorate.

There were just two successful car bombs from October 8-14, another sign that violence has been on the decline. Those were in Baghdad and Diyala leaving 10 dead and 15 injured. The government claimed it destroyed another 5, 2 in Anbar and 3 in Ninewa.

Violence In Iraq 2016

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	723	2,418	1,986
FEB	657	1,685	1,724
MAR	681	1,684	2,095
APR	629	1,835	1,904
MAY	673	1,637	2,484
JUN	630	2,111	6,449
Jul 1-7	120	589	635
Jul 8-14	129	242	316
Jul 15-21	123	168	272
Jul 22-28	115	234	366
Jul 29-31	43	95	119
JUL	530	1,328	1,708
Aug 1-7	109	342	255
Aug 8-14	121	176	245
Aug 15-21	155	388	392
Aug 22-28	134	269	312
Aug 29-31	55	88	172
AUG	574	1,263	1,376
Sep 1-7	119	341	381
Sep 8-14	125	197	313
Sep 15-21	137	172	352
Sep 22-28	159	326	469
Sep 29-30	33	167	87
SEP	573	1,203	1,602
Oct 1-7	127	274	331
Oct 8-14	118	175	350

Security By Province Oct 8-14, 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	6 Incidents 3 Killed 12 Wounded 3 Shootings 1 IED 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	2 Incidents 1 IED
Baghdad	66 Incidents 93 Killed 285 Wounded 12 Shootings 42 IEDs 6 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Car Bomb 2 Grenades
Basra	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 Shooting
Diyala	10 Incidents 14 Killed 17 Wounded 3 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Mortars 1 Suicide Bomber Arrested
Kirkuk	14 Incidents 25 Killed 29 Wounded 3 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Rockets
Ninewa	14 Incidents 26 Killed 3 Wounded 4 Shootings 1 IED 2 Mortars 1 Rockets 1 Turkish Artillery 3 Suicide Truck Bombs Destroyed 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Salahaddin	5 Incidents 13 Killed 4 Wounded 2 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Rockets

Car Bombs In Iraq Oct, 2016

Date	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Oct 1
Oct 2
Oct 3	Qayara, Ninewa – 6 destroyed
Oct 4
Oct 5	Hit, Anbar – 4 destroyed Khalis, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Oct 6
Oct 7
Totals	0 – 11 Destroyed
Oct 8	Arab Jabour, Baghdad Baaj, Salahadd – 3 destroyed	1	4
Oct 9	Azim, Diyala	9	11
Oct 10
Oct 11	Ana, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Oct 12
Oct 13
Oct 14
Totals	2 – 5 Destroyed	10	15

SOURCES

AIN, "Diyala: the martyrdom and wounding seven policemen by a car bomb," 10/9/16

Bora, Birce, “Analysis: What is Turkey trying to achieve in Iraq?” Al Jazeera, 10/14/16

Iraqi News, "Mahalawi announces Heet Island fully liberated from ISIS," 10/11/16

- "Security forces repulse ISIS attack near Mosul, 6 militants killed," 10/8/16

Al Maalomah, "The death toll in New Baghdad seven dead and 21 wounded," 10/9/16

Al Mada, "Turkish bombings kill civilians in village north of Mosul," 10/9/16

NINA, "Anbar Operations Liberate Baker Neighborhood And 3 Other Villages In Anbar," 10/10/16

- "Vehicle bombs destroyed, and terrorists killed in an airstrike western Anbar," 10/11/16

Rudaw, "Suicide Car bombing kills 9 north of Baghdad," 10/9/16

- "UPDATED: Baghdad suicide bombing kills at least 6 on Ashura," 10/9/16

- "UPDATED: Iraqi army convoy attacked and bombing in Baghdad, casualties reported," 10/8/16

Sotaliraq, "A suicide bomber wearing an explosive bet trying to target a funeral procession arrested in Khalis," 10/10/16

World Bulletin, "Iraqi army, allies take strategic Anbar road from ISIL," 10/14/16

Xinhua, “Iraq summons Turkish ambassador over Erdogan’s comments on Mosul battle,” 10/5/16

- "Security forces free 5 villages in Iraq's Anbar province," 10/9/16