The army chief of staff General Osman al-Ghani said that the
attack on west Mosul would start soon. He encouraged people to return to the
city and for the government to assist those still displaced. The government is
continuing to push its propaganda line that the Islamic State is defeated and
that taking west Mosul will be easier than east Mosul as a result.
A commander from the Golden Division told the press that IS
had no presence in east Mosul, and yet sleeper cells continue to be found along
with infiltrations and continuous shelling and drone strikes. General Saadi
Maan stated
that the insurgents were no longer in liberated sections of Mosul. He did
acknowledge that there were infiltrators. Five IS fighters were killed
trying to sneak into the Rashidiya neighborhood in the northern tip of the
city. In nearby Darkazlia
searches led to a firefight with 16 IS being killed, and 17 arrested including
2 suicide bombers. Several more insurgents were discovered trying to cross
the Tigris into east Mosul and were wiped out. Drone
attacks, mortar
fire, and rockets on eleven neighborhoods left 45 dead and 21 wounded.
There are gun battles with militants almost every day now in east Mosul. The
government has warned about sleeper cells and IS fighters who disappeared into
the general population. The Iraqi forces (ISF) are attempting to root them out
with raids and searches throughout the city. At the same time, IS is shelling
and launching drone strikes causing more and more casualties. This is leading
to continued displacement from Mosul.
IS’s main activity in west Mosul was maintaining control. It
burned
ten people on charges of helping the Iraqi forces. It raided
the New Mosul neighborhood looking for phones, and when they found them people
were shot. Another five civilians were executed for trying to flee across the
Tigris River. Their bodies were strung up to scare others.
East Mosul is also suffering from severe shortages of food,
fuel, and general supplies. People told Iraq
Oil Report that the situation had gotten so bad that people were checking
themselves into hospitals due to malnutrition.
In the west the Hashd have not reported much progress in its
sixth phase of operations there lately, but IS did launch an attack
upon Hajaf in the Tal Abta area. As in Mosul, the militants’ strategy is to constantly
launch operations even when they are hopeless. The Tal Afar district is mostly
wide open countryside meaning any attack is easily detected, and especially
vulnerable to artillery and air strikes. This has not stopped them from
occurring.
A major goal of the Haider Abadi administration is to win
over Mosul’s population. The Golden Division has been exemplarily at doing that
while some other ISF have not been as professional being accused of arbitrary
arrests, abuses, and looting. Jonathan Spyer for The American Interest
interviewed some displaced from the city at the Khazir camp who were not so
optimistic about the future. One said that a sectarian war would break out
because Shiites wanted revenge for the Camp Speicher massacre that occurred
when IS seized Tikrit and massacred around 1,600 ISF recruits. Another told
Spyer that he feared that the army would mistreat people once again as they had
done before Mosul fell in 2014. That means the government still has work to do.
Another problem raised in another article
was that while life is returning to the city, the rebuilding process is moving
along slowly. That’s because the government lacks the money for major
reconstruction at this time.
There are several thousand Counter Terror Forces, army,
Federal Police, Rapid Reaction forces and a Shabak Hashd unit inside Mosul, but
eventually the police will have to take over security duties. The U.S. led
coalition is now training those forces. 3,000 police and border guards have completed
their courses. The Spanish Army for example is running a program just for the
police. Baghdad has asked that more be trained. Before Mosul fell the city had
around 25,000
police and 40,000 Federal Police not to mention army units. By January
there were only around 8,000 police on duty. That is another long term issue
facing the city.
The Kurds held a ceremony for a new
Arab Peshmerga unit that completed its basic training. Another 1,000 man unit
is scheduled to be readied next. Sheikhs from the Shammar, Jihesh, and Jabouri
tribes were in attendance. Since 2003 the Kurds have attempted to co-opt Arab
tribes in Ninewa to solidify their hold on the area and create facts on the
ground that would support the annexation of the disputed areas they claim as
historically theirs. Recruiting these Arabs is part of that long standing
process. Some in Baghdad are not happy with it, but that will have to be
resolved after the Islamic State is defeated.
Another sign that the future of Ninewa is still up in the
air, a Christian
Hashd unit led by Salman Esso Habba gave a 72 hour deadline for Arabs to
evacuate the town of Tal Keif. Habba claimed the town belonged to Christians
and threatened to expel any Arabs who did not comply with his ultimatum. This
is another example of how different groups have competing claims over sections
of the province.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
had new information
on the flow of people in and out of Mosul. From February 4-5 920 people left
the city mostly due to IS shelling. It also noted that there were food and
service shortages which were also motivating factors. At the same time, over
those two days another 2,249 returned to the liberated districts of the city.
The UNHCR noted that more people are now going back to their homes than
fleeing. When west Mosul is attacked, that will likely be reversed.
SOURCES
Adel, Loaa, “Clashes between IS and security forces north of
Mosul, 16 militants killed,” Iraqi News, 2/8/17
Buratha
News, "Foiled attempt to cross the Tigris River by Daesh members from the
left bank of Mosul," 2/8/17
Georgy, Michael, “Freed from jihadists, Mosul residents
focus fury on Iraqi politicians,” Reuters, 2/3/17
Habib, Mustafa, “Frenemies United: Security Problems,
Scrappy Militias Delay Fight Against Extremists In Western Mosul,” Niqash,
2/1/17
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Feb. 8, 2017,” 2/9/17
Al
Maalomah, "The martyrdom of three civilian in the fall of mortar shells fired
by Dash on left bank of Mosul," 2/8/17
Michaels, Jim, “U.S.-led coalition focuses on training a
post-ISIL police force in Iraq,” USA Today, 2/7/17
Middle East Monitor, “Iraq Christian militia threatens to
ethnically cleanse Sunni Arabs,” 2/8/17
Mostafa, Mohamed, “Iraqi army shoots down IS drones, kills
26 militants in Mosul,” Iraqi News, 2/8/17
-“Islamic State burn 10 civilians dead for treason, kill 7
members for fleeing,” Iraqi News, 2/8/17
-
"PMUs kill 20 IS militants in Mosul, 2 die in Salahuddin attack,"
Iraqi News, 2/8/17
NINA, “A Senior Officer In Counter-Terrorism Denies Any
Presence To Daesh In The Left Side Of Mosul,” 2/7/17
Rudaw, “Local Arabs west of Mosul train and join Peshmerga
forces,” 2/8/17
- “Offensive for west Mosul will begin soon, says Iraqi army
chief,” 2/8/17
Sotaliraq,
"Killing one person and injuring 19 in Daesh bombing of liberated areas in
Mosul," 2/8/17
Spyer, Jonathan, “Victory in Mosul Won’t Save Iraq,” The
American Interest, 2/8/17
UN High Commissioner for Refugees, “Iraq Situation: Flash
Update – 8 February 2017,” 2/8/17
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