Saturday, October 6, 2018

Islamic State Returns To Baghdad While Overall Security In Iraq Remains Steady

(Shafaaq News)

Overall security in Iraq has been unchanged since April 2018. However there has been a shift in Islamic State targets and a return of suicide and car bombs in September.

There was an average of 7.0 incidents per day in September, which matches the figure for April to September. For the third month Baghdad led the country in incidents with 65.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province August-September 2018
Province
August
September
Anbar
11
17
Babil
3
5
Baghdad
58
65
Basra
4
4
Diyala
44
36
Dohuk
1
-
Irbil
1
1
Karbala
1
-
Kirkuk
32
31
KRG
7
11
Muthanna
1
-
Najaf
-
-
Ninewa
27
18
Qadisiya
-
-
Salahaddin
25
21
Sulaymaniya
1
1

Casualties In Iraq By Province August-September 2018
Province
August
September
Anbar
70 (32 K, 38 W)
52 (15 K, 37 W)
Babil
6 (6 W)
9 (4 K, 5 W)
Baghdad
86 (32 K, 54 W)
101 (31 K, 70 W)
Basra
2 (1 K, 1 W)
2 (1 K, 1 W)
Diyala
49 (19 K, 30 W)
50 (17 K, 33 W)
Dohuk
1 (1 K)
-
Irbil
-
3 (3 K)
Kirkuk
39 (13 K, 26 W)
60 (33 K, 27 W)
KRG
32 (30 K, 2 W)
38 (34 K, 4 W)
Muthanna
1 (1 W)
-
Ninewa
69 (51 K, 18 W)
98 (77 K, 21 W)
Salahaddin
103 (45 K, 58 W)
100 (24 K, 76 W)

There were 253 deaths and 321 wounded in September. 58 bodies were uncovered from the rubble in Mosul during the month, just over one year after the city was liberated. That left 195 violent deaths, 144 of which were due to the insurgency.

1 Turkish soldiers, 6 Peshmerga, 14 Hashd al-Shaabi, 14 Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, 36 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), 49 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 133 civilians lost their lives. Another 4 Turkish soldiers, 32 Hashd, 45 ISF, 47 PDKI, and 193 civilians were injured.

The insurgents appear to be returning to some of their old haunts. For the last two months, incidents have been going up in Anbar from an average of 0.2 per day in July to 0.3 to 0.5 in September. Those are still miniscule figures, but the types of attacks changed as well. For example, there were two suicide bombings in the province, the first since April. It is yet to be seen whether this is a real change or not.

Another worrisome trend is an increase in violence in Baghdad. Since June incidents have slowly climbed back up from an average of 1.1 to 1.5 in July to 1.8 in August and 2.1 in September. These attacks remain routine such as shootings and IEDs, and are mostly concentrated in the outer southern and northern regions of the province. Still, IS attempting to penetrate the largest urban area of the country is not a good sign.

In the middle of the year there was a surge of attacks in central Iraq, but that has since fallen off. In Diyala, incidents reached 1.7 per day in June only to see them fall since to 1.2 in September. In Kirkuk, there were 1.8 incidents in June before dropping to 1.0 in August and September. Likewise, in Salahaddin there were 1.4 incidents in June, but then 0.7-0.8 from July to September. That doesn’t mean IS has fallen off in its rebuilding. Rather there are more and more reports of people fleeing villages in rural areas such as the Khanaqin district in northeast Diyala, towns being attacked, taxes being collected, areas being no go zones for the security forces at night, and militants openly being seen during the day. This is despite constant sweeps by the security forces, but they have been largely ineffective. The main problem is that there is not much government presence in many of these rural areas, and the population is getting intimidated and not providing good intelligence.

Islamic State Activity in Central Iraq 2018
Diyala
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan
20
24
2
7
-
1
-
6
1
1
Feb
14
13
4
3
-
-
-
-
1
-
Mar
29
21
14
5
1
2
1
5
-
-
Apr
13
18
2
2
-
-
-
2
-
-
May
11
11
1
3
1
1
3
4
1
-
Jun
32
17
5
12
-
1
5
4
-
-
Jul
20
19
2
3
-
2
3
1
-
-
Aug
17
18
2
2
1
1
3
3
-
-
Sep
20
12
5
1
-
2
5
5
-
-

Kirkuk
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars/
Rockets
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan
13
6
4
1
-
-
-
3
3
1
Feb
21
10
7
3
-
-
-
4
1
-
Mar
22
15
11
2
-
2
1
3
1
1
Apr
18
4
3
1
-
-
8
1
-
1
May
14
28
2
-
2
1
1
4
4
-
Jun
25
12
4
2
-
2
10
6
-
-
Jul
7
20
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
1
Aug
7
20
2
1
2
-
-
2
-
1
Sep
14
25
2
2
1
3
4
2
-
-

Salahaddin
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars/
Rockets
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan
11
9
8
-
-
-
-
2
-
1
Feb
7
5
1
1
-
2
-
-
-
-
Mar
23
8
9
2
-
3
-
-
1
-
Apr
6
8
2
2
-
-
-
-
1
-
May
14
10
10
1
1
-
-
1
1
-
Jun
15
15
4
1
-
7
-
-
-
1
Jul
9
6
-
4
-
-
2
1
1
-
Aug
9
15
1
3
-
1
1
1
1
-
Sep
5
10
1
1
-
-
1
1
3
1

(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Incidents continued to fall off in Ninewa. In January there was an average of 1.1 incidents per day, but since April there has been less than one per day with just 0.4 in September. There are some infiltration attempts from Syria and attacks upon local officials, but this governorate is no longer a main front.

Along with the renewed incidents in Anbar and Baghdad, the Islamic State also restarted mass casualty bombings. In September there were 8 suicide and car bombs, the most since May. Before that there were only 1 in June 2 in July and 3 in August. These all occurred in Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin. It is another sign that IS is becoming bolder and regrouping.

Kurdistan had a total of 13 incidents. In Sulaymaniya, Iran hit the headquarters of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan leaving 61 casualties. Turkey had 10 air strikes killing 37 PKK members. An IED planted by that group left 1 Turkish soldier dead and 4 wounded. Tehran has been targeting Kurdish groups off and on for several weeks now. Ankara on the other hand, has been striking the PKK nearly every week.

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018
Month
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Totals
Jan
7
(1- Diyala,
3 – Baghdad,
3 - Kirkuk)
6
(1- Anbar,
1 – Diyala,
1 – Kirkuk,
1 – Salahaddin,
2 - Babil)
13
Feb
4
(1 – Anbar
1 – Diyala
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
-
4
Mar
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 - Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
3
Apr
4
(1 - Salahaddin
3 – Anbar)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
5
May
8
(1 – Diyala
1 - Salahaddin)
2 – Baghdad
4 - Kirkuk)
-
8
Jun

1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
Jul
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
2
Aug
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Anbar,
1 – Kirkuk)
3
Sep
6
(1 – Ninewa)
2 – Anbar
3 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin)
8

Security In Iraq 2017-18
Week
Security
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
JAN 2017
719
1,923
4,374
FEB
628
1,891 + 399
2,511 + 1,634
MAR
720
3,504 + 278
3,302 + 2,925
APR
578
2,933
1,955
MAY
528
2,038
1,563
JUN
534
2,038
1,563
JUL
478
1,490
650
AUG
359
1,949
584
SEP
306
728
549
OCT
286
913
865 + 1,700
NOV
296
1,282
425
DEC
261
763
300
Jan 1-7
71
50
66
Jan 8-14
64
62
70
Jan 15-21
68
156
151
Jan 22-28
68
148
66
Jan 29-31
27
23
22
JAN 2018
298
439
(218 Violent
Deaths)
375
Feb 1-7
66
196
67
Feb 8-14
65
63
93
Feb 15-21
59
346
43
Feb 22-28
55
44
72
FEB
245
649
(233 Violent Deaths)
275
Mar 1-7
78
120
84
Mar 8-14
60
84
61
Mar 15-21
67
168
98
Mar 22-28
81
213
61
Mar 29-31
21
26
35
MAR
307
611
(466 Violent Deaths)
339
Apr 1-7
40
174
29
Apr 8-14
64
175
83
Apr 15-21
44
63
72
Apr 22-28
44
62
48
Apr 29-30
12
12
4
APR
204
486
(240 Violent Deaths)
236
May 1-7
51
57
56
May 8-14
56
68
49
May 15-21
39
58
82
May 22-28
51
73
51
May 29-31
21
42
15
MAY
218
298
(273 Violent Deaths)
253
Jun 1-7
55
100
32
Jun 8-14
72
108
88
Jun 15-21
42
83
19
Jun 22-28
52
58
65
Jun 29-30
18
22
14
JUN
239
371
(327 Violent Deaths)
218
Jul 1-7
56
58
91
Jul 8-14
44
57
31
Jul 15-21
54
61
64
Jul 22-28
36
65
21
Jul 29-31
24
26
11
JUL
214
267
(222 Violent Deaths)
218
Aug 1-7
49
57
30
Aug 8-14
47
43
51
Aug 15-21
45
26
45
Aug 22-28
42
29
64
Aug 29-31
33
69
44
AUG
216
224
(209 Violent Deaths)
234
Sep 1-7
45
46
61
Sep 8-14
57
67
127
Sep 15-21
50
93
71
Sep 22-28
47
27
33
Sep 29-30
11
20
29
SEP
210
253
(195 Violent Deaths)
321

Violence By Province September 2018
Province
Violence
Anbar
17 Incidents
15 Killed
2 Hashd
6 Civilians
7 ISF
37 Wounded
12 ISF
25 Civilians

3 Shootings
8 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb
2 Grenades
1 Suicide Bomber Killed
3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil
5 Incidents
4 Killed
1 Hashd
3 Civilians
5 Wounded
5 Hashd

3 Shootings
2 IEDs
Baghdad
65 Incidents
31 Killed
31 Civilians
70 Wounded
2 ISF
68 Civilians

24 Shootings
17 IEDs
7 Sticky Bombs
4 Sound Bombs
3 Grenades
Basra
4 Incidents
1 Killed
1 Civilian
1 Wounded
1 Civilian

1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Mortar
1 Rocket
Diyala
36 Incidents
17 Killed
1 ISF
3 Peshmerga
4 Hashd
9 Civilians
Irbil
1 Incident
3 Killed
3 PKK

1 Turkish Air Strike
Kirkuk
31 Incidents
33 Killed
3 Hashd
3 Peshmerga
11 ISF
16 Civilians
27 Wounded
9 Civilians
18 ISF

12 Shootings
21 IEDs
1 Rocket
1 Mortar
1 Car Bomb
Kurdistan
11 Incidents
34 Killed
1 Turkish Soldier
33 PKK
4 Wounded
4 Turkish Soldiers

1 IED
9 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa
18 Incidents
77 Killed
1 Hashd
28 ISF
48 Civilians
21 Wounded
4 Hashd
8 ISF
9 Civilians

8 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Salahaddin
21 Incidents
24 Killed
2 ISF
3 Hashd
19 Civilians
76 Wounded
2 ISF
13 Hashd
61 Civilians

5 Shootings
9 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
3 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
1 Rockets
3 Suicide Bombers Arrested
3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Sulaymaniya
1 Incident
14 Killed
14 PDKI
47 Wounded
47 PDKI

1 Iranian Shelling


2 comments:

Sammy rauf said...

Dear Sir & Mam,

Tks for great offer for sharing very useful security info update in IRAQ in daily bases...

Joel Wing said...

Thanks for reading

Assessment Of The Status Of The Islamic State

(Iraqi News) Michael Knights from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote another excellent assessment of the state of the...