Monday, December 3, 2018

Large Drop In Violence In Iraq November 2018

(Shafaaq News)

There was a large drop in reported incidents from October to November 2018. The number of incidents dropped roughly 30% between the two months. The number of casualties likewise went down as well. The bad weather which has caused flash flooding through much of northern and central Iraq might have played a role.

There were 155 Incidents reported in Iraq in October 2018. That was down from 222 in October. That averaged out to 5.1 incidents per day in November compared to 7.1 in October. November had the lowest total and average incidents of any month in 2018. There have been torrential rains and many cities have been flooded as a result. That could have accounted for the sizeable drop in attacks during the month.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Oct-Nov 2018
Province
October
November
Anbar
16
6
Babil
5
1
Baghdad
65
32
Basra
3
1
Diyala
35
35
Dohuk
2
1
Kirkuk
48
19
KRG
7
15
Ninewa
25
26
Salahaddin
16
18
Sulaymaniya
-
1

For the previous four months Baghdad had the most incidents of any province. In November, Diyala had 35 incidents with Baghdad coming in second with 32. Attacks in Baghdad are important because they show that the Islamic State is moving back into the center of the country. Traditionally, the insurgents have hit the capital to sow terrorism and undermine the standing of the government. For four months, IS was increasing its operations in Baghdad showing that it was a new target. That subsided in November.

Monthly Security Incidents in Iraq by Province Jun-Oct 2018

Baghdad
Anbar
Diyala
Kirkuk
Ninewa
Salahaddin
Jun
33
13
51
56
12
42
Jul
49
8
46
37
29
23
Aug
58
11
44
32
27
25
Sep
65
17
36
31
18
21
Oct
65
16
35
48
25
16
Nov
32
6
35
19
26
18
(Red figure signifies highest number of incidents during the month)

There were 290 reported deaths in November. 93 bodies were discovered in mass graves during the month leaving 197 violent deaths. That included 2 Peshmerga, 14 Hashd al-Shaabi, 21 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 69 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and 184 civilians. 151 were wounded made up of 3 Peshmerga, 17 Hashd, 26 ISF, and 105 civilians. Ninewa had the most casualties with 135. That was because 69 bodies were found there in four sites, victims of when the Islamic State ruled large swaths of the governorate.

Casualties In Iraq By Province Oct Nov 2018
Province
October
November
Anbar
43 (24 K, 19 W)
34 (19 K, 15 W)
Babil
2 (2 W)
2 (2 W)
Baghdad
91 (38 K, 53 W)
57 (25 K, 32)
Basra
3 (3 K)
1 (1 W)
Diyala
46 (17 K, 29 W)
50 (22 K, 28 W)
Dohuk
12 (12 K)
3 (3 K)
Kirkuk
84 (25 K, 59 W)
19 (8 K, 11 W)
KRG
73 (73 K)
69 (69 K)
Ninewa
228 (179 K, 49 W)
135 (106 K, 29 W)
Salahaddin
58 (12 K, 46 W)
71 (38 K, 33 W)

Incidents in Anbar have remained very low. There has been less than 1 incident per day on average since October 2018. In November for example, there was only an average of 0.2 incidents per day. However in the last few months IS has been carrying out more serious attacks like suicide and car bombs. That fell off in November.

Islamic State Activity in Anbar 2018
Anbar
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jun
4
3
2
-
-
1
-
-
Jul
3
5
1
-
-
-
-
-
Aug
4
4
2
1
-
-
-
1
Sep
3
8
-
-
-
-
2
-
Oct
9
5
3
1
1
2
1
1
Nov
1
3
-
-
1
1
-
-

Central Iraq is where the Islamic State is rebuilding. Attacks remained the same in Diyala at an average of 1.1 per day from October to November. In Kirkuk however, incidents went from 1.5 per day in October to 0.6 in November, and went up just a fraction in Salahaddin from 0.5 in October to 0.6 in November. Overall, there were 72 incidents between the three provinces in November versus 99 in October. November’s attacks included two car bombs in Salahaddin, 9 gun battles with the security forces, 4 attacks upon checkpoints, 1 assault upon a mukhtar, 4 kidnappings, and 4 attacks upon towns. The situation in these areas has gotten so bad that there are more and more reports of militants walking around out in the open during the day. They are collecting taxes, taking on the local security forces, and going after villages that do not comply with their rules. In turn, they have been able to intimidate the locals enough where little good intelligence is being passed along to the government to counter IS’s rebuilding. That’s seen by the fact that there were 5 security sweeps in Diyala, 3 in Kirkuk, and 2 in Salahaddin, but they rarely find any IS members. Instead there are plenty of weapons caches discovered, but the insurgents have moved on to other areas waiting for the security forces to leave and then move right back after they’re done. IS is now effectively in control of most of the rural areas of Diyala, southern Kirkuk, and central and northern Salahaddin.

Islamic State Activity in Central Iraq 2018
Diyala
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan
20
24
2
7
-
1
-
6
1
1
Feb
14
13
4
3
-
-
-
-
1
-
Mar
29
21
14
5
1
2
1
5
-
-
Apr
13
18
2
2
-
-
-
2
-
-
May
11
11
1
3
1
1
3
4
1
-
Jun
32
17
5
12
-
1
5
4
-
-
Jul
20
19
2
3
-
2
3
1
-
-
Aug
17
18
2
2
1
1
3
3
-
-
Sep
20
12
5
1
-
2
5
5
-
-
Oct
11
22
2
-
1
1
-
4
-
-
Nov
17
13
5
2
1
1
4
4
-
-

Kirkuk
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars
Rockets
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan
13
6
4
1
-
-
-
3
3
1
Feb
21
10
7
3
-
-
-
4
1
-
Mar
22
15
11
2
-
2
1
3
1
1
Apr
18
4
3
1
-
-
8
1
-
1
May
14
28
2
-
2
1
1
4
4
-
Jun
25
12
4
2
-
2
10
6
-
-
Jul
7
20
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
1
Aug
7
20
2
1
2
-
-
2
-
1
Sep
14
25
2
2
1
3
4
2
-
-
Oct
16
29
1
4
4
1
4
2
-
1
Nov
7
7
2
-
-
2
-
1
-
-

Salahaddin
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Mortars
Rockets
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jan
11
9
8
-
-
-
-
2
-
1
Feb
7
5
1
1
-
2
-
-
-
-
Mar
23
8
9
2
-
3
-
-
1
-
Apr
6
8
2
2
-
-
-
-
1
-
May
14
10
10
1
1
-
-
1
1
-
Jun
15
15
4
1
-
7
-
-
-
1
Jul
9
6
-
4
-
-
2
1
1
-
Aug
9
15
1
3
-
1
1
1
1
-
Sep
5
10
1
1
-
-
1
1
3
1
Oct
2
9
1
-
-
1
-
1
1
-
Nov
5
7
2
2
-
1
-
1
-
2

Another area where IS is making its presence felt once again is Ninewa. Like Anbar, the number of incidents is still very low, 0.8 incidents per day in November, but the types have changed. In November, there were 2 gun battles with the security forces, an attack upon a checkpoints, 3 towns were assaulted, and there was 1 car bomb. The last two are signs that the insurgents are attempting to assert control over rural areas and returning to terrorism.

Islamic State Activity in Ninewa 2018
Ninewa
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Jun
7
2
3
1
-
-
-
-
-
Jul
9
9
1
1
1
1
2
-
-
Aug
9
9
2
-
-
1
1
-
-
Sep
8
3
2
-
-
-
-
1
-
Oct
13
5
-
1
-
1
-
-
1
Nov
9
7
2
1
-
-
3
-
1
(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

In the last two months there was a surge in mass casualty bombings in Iraq, but that went down in November. In August there were 3 such attacks, going up to 8 in September and 5 in October, before going back down to 3 in November. Again, the weather may have been a deterrent to these types of operations. What is still worrying is that these are now going off in urban centers instead of towns like they were before. In November, Mosul and Tikrit were hit by vehicle bombs along with Shirqat in northern Salahaddin. The militants had not been able to infiltrate any major city for months now, so this is not a good sign. If this continues Baghdad will likely be the next target.

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018
Month
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Totals
Jan
7
(1- Diyala,
3 – Baghdad,
3 - Kirkuk)
6
(1- Anbar,
1 – Diyala,
1 – Kirkuk,
1 – Salahaddin,
2 - Babil)
13
Feb
4
(1 – Anbar
1 – Diyala
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
-
4
Mar
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 - Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
3
Apr
4
(1 - Salahaddin
3 – Anbar)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
5
May
8
(1 – Diyala
1 - Salahaddin)
2 – Baghdad
4 - Kirkuk)
-
8
Jun

1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
Jul
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
2
Aug
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Anbar,
1 – Kirkuk)
3
Sep
6
(1 – Ninewa)
2 – Anbar
3 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin)
8
Oct
2
(1 - Anbar
1 – Salahaddin)
3
(1 – Anbar
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
5
Nov
-
3
(1 - Ninewa
2 – Salahaddin)
3

69 members of the PKK along with 3 civilians were killed in 17 Turkish air strikes in northern Iraq. In October, 85 PKK members were killed in 7 bombing missions. Ankara is consistently pounding the group’s positions every week to put pressure on it now that Turkey’s ground assault into Kurdistan ended a few months ago.

Security In Iraq 2017-18
Week
Security
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
JAN 2017
719
1,923
4,374
FEB
628
1,891 + 399
2,511 + 1,634
MAR
720
3,504 + 278
3,302 + 2,925
APR
578
2,933
1,955
MAY
528
2,038
1,563
JUN
534
2,038
1,563
JUL
478
1,490
650
AUG
359
1,949
584
SEP
306
728
549
OCT
286
913
865 + 1,700
NOV
296
1,282
425
DEC
261
763
300
Jan 1-7
71
50
66
Jan 8-14
64
62
70
Jan 15-21
68
156
151
Jan 22-28
68
148
66
Jan 29-31
27
23
22
JAN 2018
298
439
(218 Violent
Deaths)
375
Feb 1-7
66
196
67
Feb 8-14
65
63
93
Feb 15-21
59
346
43
Feb 22-28
55
44
72
FEB
245
649
(233 Violent Deaths)
275
Mar 1-7
78
120
84
Mar 8-14
60
84
61
Mar 15-21
67
168
98
Mar 22-28
81
213
61
Mar 29-31
21
26
35
MAR
307
611
(466 Violent Deaths)
339
Apr 1-7
40
174
29
Apr 8-14
64
175
83
Apr 15-21
44
63
72
Apr 22-28
44
62
48
Apr 29-30
12
12
4
APR
204
486
(240 Violent Deaths)
236
May 1-7
51
57
56
May 8-14
56
68
49
May 15-21
39
58
82
May 22-28
51
73
51
May 29-31
21
42
15
MAY
218
298
(273 Violent Deaths)
253
Jun 1-7
55
100
32
Jun 8-14
72
108
88
Jun 15-21
42
83
19
Jun 22-28
52
58
65
Jun 29-30
18
22
14
JUN
239
371
(327 Violent Deaths)
218
Jul 1-7
56
58
91
Jul 8-14
44
57
31
Jul 15-21
54
61
64
Jul 22-28
36
65
21
Jul 29-31
24
26
11
JUL
214
267
(222 Violent Deaths)
218
Aug 1-7
49
57
30
Aug 8-14
47
43
51
Aug 15-21
45
26
45
Aug 22-28
42
29
64
Aug 29-31
33
69
44
AUG
216
224
(209 Violent Deaths)
234
Sep 1-7
45
46
61
Sep 8-14
57
67
127
Sep 15-21
50
93
71
Sep 22-28
47
27
33
Sep 29-30
11
20
29
SEP
210
253
(195 Violent Deaths)
321
Oct 1-7
60
88
94
Oct 8-14
50
169
48
Oct 15-21
56
88
37
Oct 22-28
31
28
54
Oct 29-31
25
10
24
OCT
222
383
(193 Violent Deaths)
257
Nov 1-7
38
80
46
Nov 8-14
42
112
19
Nov 15-21
36
56
29
Nov 22-28
28
37
30
Nov 29-30
11
5
27
NOV
155
290
(197 Violent Deaths)
151

Violence By Province November, 2018
Province
Violence
Anbar
6 Incidents
19 Killed
1 Hashd
18 Civilians
15 Wounded
4 ISF
11 Civilians

1 Shooting
1 IED
2 Sticky Bombs
Babil
1 Incident
2 Wounded
2 Hashd

1 IED
Baghdad
32 Incidents
25 Killed
25 Civilians
32 Wounded
32 Civilians

16 Shootings
4 IEDs
3 Sticky Bombs
1 Grenade
1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Basra
1 Incident
1 Wounded
1 ISF

1 Shooting
Diyala
35 Incidents
22 Killed
4 ISF
8 Hashd
10 Civilians
28 Wounded
6 Hashd
11 Civilians
11 ISF

17 Shootings
12 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
4 Mortars
Dohuk
1 Incident
3 Killed
3 Civilians

1 Turkish Air Strike
Kirkuk
19 Incidents
8 Killed
1 Hashd
1 ISF
4 Civilians
11 Wounded
2 ISF
4 Civilians
5 Hashd

7 Shootings
7 IEDs
1 Mortar
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kurdistan
15 Incidents
69 Killed
69 PKK

16 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa
26 Incidents
106 Killed
3 Hashd
15 ISF
88 Civilians
29 Wounded
2 ISF
4 Hashd
23 Civilians

9 Shootings
7 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Salahaddin
18 Incidents
38 Killed
1 Hashd
1 ISF
36 Civilians
33 Wounded
3 Peshmerga
6 ISF
24 Civilians

5 Shootings
7 IEDs
2 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
Sulaymaniya
1 Incident

1 Shooting

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