Large Drop In Violence In Iraq November 2018

(Shafaaq News)

There was a large drop in reported incidents from October to November 2018. The number of incidents dropped roughly 30% between the two months. The number of casualties likewise went down as well. The bad weather which has caused flash flooding through much of northern and central Iraq might have played a role.

There were 155 Incidents reported in Iraq in October 2018. That was down from 222 in October. That averaged out to 5.1 incidents per day in November compared to 7.1 in October. November had the lowest total and average incidents of any month in 2018. There have been torrential rains and many cities have been flooded as a result. That could have accounted for the sizeable drop in attacks during the month.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province Oct-Nov 2018

Province	October	November
Anbar	16	6
Babil	5	1
Baghdad	65	32
Basra	3	1
Diyala	35	35
Dohuk	2	1
Kirkuk	48	19
KRG	7	15
Ninewa	25	26
Salahaddin	16	18
Sulaymaniya	-	1

For the previous four months Baghdad had the most incidents of any province. In November, Diyala had 35 incidents with Baghdad coming in second with 32. Attacks in Baghdad are important because they show that the Islamic State is moving back into the center of the country. Traditionally, the insurgents have hit the capital to sow terrorism and undermine the standing of the government. For four months, IS was increasing its operations in Baghdad showing that it was a new target. That subsided in November.

Monthly Security Incidents in Iraq by Province Jun-Oct 2018

	Baghdad	Anbar	Diyala	Kirkuk	Ninewa	Salahaddin
Jun	33	13	51	56	12	42
Jul	49	8	46	37	29	23
Aug	58	11	44	32	27	25
Sep	65	17	36	31	18	21
Oct	65	16	35	48	25	16
Nov	32	6	35	19	26	18

(Red figure signifies highest number of incidents during the month)

There were 290 reported deaths in November. 93 bodies were discovered in mass graves during the month leaving 197 violent deaths. That included 2 Peshmerga, 14 Hashd al-Shaabi, 21 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 69 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and 184 civilians. 151 were wounded made up of 3 Peshmerga, 17 Hashd, 26 ISF, and 105 civilians. Ninewa had the most casualties with 135. That was because 69 bodies were found there in four sites, victims of when the Islamic State ruled large swaths of the governorate.

Casualties In Iraq By Province Oct Nov 2018

Province	October	November
Anbar	43 (24 K, 19 W)	34 (19 K, 15 W)
Babil	2 (2 W)	2 (2 W)
Baghdad	91 (38 K, 53 W)	57 (25 K, 32)
Basra	3 (3 K)	1 (1 W)
Diyala	46 (17 K, 29 W)	50 (22 K, 28 W)
Dohuk	12 (12 K)	3 (3 K)
Kirkuk	84 (25 K, 59 W)	19 (8 K, 11 W)
KRG	73 (73 K)	69 (69 K)
Ninewa	228 (179 K, 49 W)	135 (106 K, 29 W)
Salahaddin	58 (12 K, 46 W)	71 (38 K, 33 W)

Incidents in Anbar have remained very low. There has been less than 1 incident per day on average since October 2018. In November for example, there was only an average of 0.2 incidents per day. However in the last few months IS has been carrying out more serious attacks like suicide and car bombs. That fell off in November.

Islamic State Activity in Anbar 2018

Anbar	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	4	3	2	-	-	1	-	-
Jul	3	5	1	-	-	-	-	-
Aug	4	4	2	1	-	-	-	1
Sep	3	8	-	-	-	-	2	-
Oct	9	5	3	1	1	2	1	1
Nov	1	3	-	-	1	1	-	-

Central Iraq is where the Islamic State is rebuilding. Attacks remained the same in Diyala at an average of 1.1 per day from October to November. In Kirkuk however, incidents went from 1.5 per day in October to 0.6 in November, and went up just a fraction in Salahaddin from 0.5 in October to 0.6 in November. Overall, there were 72 incidents between the three provinces in November versus 99 in October. November’s attacks included two car bombs in Salahaddin, 9 gun battles with the security forces, 4 attacks upon checkpoints, 1 assault upon a mukhtar, 4 kidnappings, and 4 attacks upon towns. The situation in these areas has gotten so bad that there are more and more reports of militants walking around out in the open during the day. They are collecting taxes, taking on the local security forces, and going after villages that do not comply with their rules. In turn, they have been able to intimidate the locals enough where little good intelligence is being passed along to the government to counter IS’s rebuilding. That’s seen by the fact that there were 5 security sweeps in Diyala, 3 in Kirkuk, and 2 in Salahaddin, but they rarely find any IS members. Instead there are plenty of weapons caches discovered, but the insurgents have moved on to other areas waiting for the security forces to leave and then move right back after they’re done. IS is now effectively in control of most of the rural areas of Diyala, southern Kirkuk, and central and northern Salahaddin.

Islamic State Activity in Central Iraq 2018

Diyala	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	20	24	2	7	-	1	-	6	1	1
Feb	14	13	4	3	-	-	-	-	1	-
Mar	29	21	14	5	1	2	1	5	-	-
Apr	13	18	2	2	-	-	-	2	-	-
May	11	11	1	3	1	1	3	4	1	-
Jun	32	17	5	12	-	1	5	4	-	-
Jul	20	19	2	3	-	2	3	1	-	-
Aug	17	18	2	2	1	1	3	3	-	-
Sep	20	12	5	1	-	2	5	5	-	-
Oct	11	22	2	-	1	1	-	4	-	-
Nov	17	13	5	2	1	1	4	4	-	-

Kirkuk	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	13	6	4	1	-	-	-	3	3	1
Feb	21	10	7	3	-	-	-	4	1	-
Mar	22	15	11	2	-	2	1	3	1	1
Apr	18	4	3	1	-	-	8	1	-	1
May	14	28	2	-	2	1	1	4	4	-
Jun	25	12	4	2	-	2	10	6	-	-
Jul	7	20	1	2	-	-	-	-	-	1
Aug	7	20	2	1	2	-	-	2	-	1
Sep	14	25	2	2	1	3	4	2	-	-
Oct	16	29	1	4	4	1	4	2	-	1
Nov	7	7	2	-	-	2	-	1	-	-

Salahaddin	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	11	9	8	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
Feb	7	5	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	-
Mar	23	8	9	2	-	3	-	-	1	-
Apr	6	8	2	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
May	14	10	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	-
Jun	15	15	4	1	-	7	-	-	-	1
Jul	9	6	-	4	-	-	2	1	1	-
Aug	9	15	1	3	-	1	1	1	1	-
Sep	5	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	3	1
Oct	2	9	1	-	-	1	-	1	1	-
Nov	5	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	-	2

Another area where IS is making its presence felt once again is Ninewa. Like Anbar, the number of incidents is still very low, 0.8 incidents per day in November, but the types have changed. In November, there were 2 gun battles with the security forces, an attack upon a checkpoints, 3 towns were assaulted, and there was 1 car bomb. The last two are signs that the insurgents are attempting to assert control over rural areas and returning to terrorism.

Islamic State Activity in Ninewa 2018

Ninewa	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	7	2	3	1	-	-	-	-	-
Jul	9	9	1	1	1	1	2	-	-
Aug	9	9	2	-	-	1	1	-	-
Sep	8	3	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
Oct	13	5	-	1	-	1	-	-	1
Nov	9	7	2	1	-	-	3	-	1

(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

In the last two months there was a surge in mass casualty bombings in Iraq, but that went down in November. In August there were 3 such attacks, going up to 8 in September and 5 in October, before going back down to 3 in November. Again, the weather may have been a deterrent to these types of operations. What is still worrying is that these are now going off in urban centers instead of towns like they were before. In November, Mosul and Tikrit were hit by vehicle bombs along with Shirqat in northern Salahaddin. The militants had not been able to infiltrate any major city for months now, so this is not a good sign. If this continues Baghdad will likely be the next target.

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018

Month	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs	Totals
Jan	7 (1- Diyala, 3 – Baghdad, 3 - Kirkuk)	6 (1- Anbar, 1 – Diyala, 1 – Kirkuk, 1 – Salahaddin, 2 - Babil)	13
Feb	4 (1 – Anbar 1 – Diyala 1 – Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	-	4
Mar	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 - Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	3
Apr	4 (1 - Salahaddin 3 – Anbar)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	5
May	8 (1 – Diyala 1 - Salahaddin) 2 – Baghdad 4 - Kirkuk)	-	8
Jun		1 (1 – Salahaddin)	1
Jul	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	2
Aug	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Anbar, 1 – Kirkuk)	3
Sep	6 (1 – Ninewa) 2 – Anbar 3 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 – Salahaddin)	8
Oct	2 (1 - Anbar 1 – Salahaddin)	3 (1 – Anbar 1 – Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	5
Nov	-	3 (1 - Ninewa 2 – Salahaddin)	3

69 members of the PKK along with 3 civilians were killed in 17 Turkish air strikes in northern Iraq. In October, 85 PKK members were killed in 7 bombing missions. Ankara is consistently pounding the group’s positions every week to put pressure on it now that Turkey’s ground assault into Kurdistan ended a few months ago.

Security In Iraq 2017-18

Week	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN 2017	719	1,923	4,374
FEB	628	1,891 + 399	2,511 + 1,634
MAR	720	3,504 + 278	3,302 + 2,925
APR	578	2,933	1,955
MAY	528	2,038	1,563
JUN	534	2,038	1,563
JUL	478	1,490	650
AUG	359	1,949	584
SEP	306	728	549
OCT	286	913	865 + 1,700
NOV	296	1,282	425
DEC	261	763	300
Jan 1-7	71	50	66
Jan 8-14	64	62	70
Jan 15-21	68	156	151
Jan 22-28	68	148	66
Jan 29-31	27	23	22
JAN 2018	298	439 (218 Violent Deaths)	375
Feb 1-7	66	196	67
Feb 8-14	65	63	93
Feb 15-21	59	346	43
Feb 22-28	55	44	72
FEB	245	649 (233 Violent Deaths)	275
Mar 1-7	78	120	84
Mar 8-14	60	84	61
Mar 15-21	67	168	98
Mar 22-28	81	213	61
Mar 29-31	21	26	35
MAR	307	611 (466 Violent Deaths)	339
Apr 1-7	40	174	29
Apr 8-14	64	175	83
Apr 15-21	44	63	72
Apr 22-28	44	62	48
Apr 29-30	12	12	4
APR	204	486 (240 Violent Deaths)	236
May 1-7	51	57	56
May 8-14	56	68	49
May 15-21	39	58	82
May 22-28	51	73	51
May 29-31	21	42	15
MAY	218	298 (273 Violent Deaths)	253
Jun 1-7	55	100	32
Jun 8-14	72	108	88
Jun 15-21	42	83	19
Jun 22-28	52	58	65
Jun 29-30	18	22	14
JUN	239	371 (327 Violent Deaths)	218
Jul 1-7	56	58	91
Jul 8-14	44	57	31
Jul 15-21	54	61	64
Jul 22-28	36	65	21
Jul 29-31	24	26	11
JUL	214	267 (222 Violent Deaths)	218
Aug 1-7	49	57	30
Aug 8-14	47	43	51
Aug 15-21	45	26	45
Aug 22-28	42	29	64
Aug 29-31	33	69	44
AUG	216	224 (209 Violent Deaths)	234
Sep 1-7	45	46	61
Sep 8-14	57	67	127
Sep 15-21	50	93	71
Sep 22-28	47	27	33
Sep 29-30	11	20	29
SEP	210	253 (195 Violent Deaths)	321
Oct 1-7	60	88	94
Oct 8-14	50	169	48
Oct 15-21	56	88	37
Oct 22-28	31	28	54
Oct 29-31	25	10	24
OCT	222	383 (193 Violent Deaths)	257
Nov 1-7	38	80	46
Nov 8-14	42	112	19
Nov 15-21	36	56	29
Nov 22-28	28	37	30
Nov 29-30	11	5	27
NOV	155	290 (197 Violent Deaths)	151

Violence By Province November, 2018

Province	Violence
Anbar	6 Incidents 19 Killed 1 Hashd 18 Civilians 15 Wounded 4 ISF 11 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 IED 2 Sticky Bombs
Babil	1 Incident 2 Wounded 2 Hashd 1 IED
Baghdad	32 Incidents 25 Killed 25 Civilians 32 Wounded 32 Civilians 16 Shootings 4 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Grenade 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Basra	1 Incident 1 Wounded 1 ISF 1 Shooting
Diyala	35 Incidents 22 Killed 4 ISF 8 Hashd 10 Civilians 28 Wounded 6 Hashd 11 Civilians 11 ISF 17 Shootings 12 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 4 Mortars
Dohuk	1 Incident 3 Killed 3 Civilians 1 Turkish Air Strike
Kirkuk	19 Incidents 8 Killed 1 Hashd 1 ISF 4 Civilians 11 Wounded 2 ISF 4 Civilians 5 Hashd 7 Shootings 7 IEDs 1 Mortar 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kurdistan	15 Incidents 69 Killed 69 PKK 16 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	26 Incidents 106 Killed 3 Hashd 15 ISF 88 Civilians 29 Wounded 2 ISF 4 Hashd 23 Civilians 9 Shootings 7 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Salahaddin	18 Incidents 38 Killed 1 Hashd 1 ISF 36 Civilians 33 Wounded 3 Peshmerga 6 ISF 24 Civilians 5 Shootings 7 IEDs 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Sulaymaniya	1 Incident 1 Shooting