Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Maintenance On Turkish Pipeline Leads To Oil Export Decline For Iraq In February 2019

(Telegraph)

Iraq could have matched January’s export figure, but the Turkish pipeline was down for a few days due to maintenance reducing February’s total. That meant despite a slight price increase the country earned less revenue.

Iraq exported an average of 3.62 million barrels a day in February 2019. That was down from January’s 3.649 million. The decline was mostly due to the pipeline to Turkey being out of service for four days due to maintenance. Otherwise the exports via Basra averaged 3.54 million barrels in February and 3.55 million in January. Since December the flow of oil out of Iraq has increased due to a deal between the federal and regional governments to resume the Oil Ministry’s use of the Kurdish-Turkish pipeline. For most of last year Iraq was averaging 3.4 million barrels a day in exports, but that jumped to 3.7 million in December, and then 3.6 million from January-February.

On the positive side, oil prices continued to rise. A barrel of Iraqi crude sold for $60.83 in February, up from $56.15 in January and $52.80 in December. That is still below 2018’s average of $65.61 per barrel. There were fears that the oil market was facing a glut and concerns over a looming recession that forced prices down at the end of last year. The recent increase is good for Iraq because its new budget is based upon $54 per barrel price of oil.

The dip in exports meant that revenues were down in February. The country earned $6.168 billion compared to $6.367 billion in January. February was the lowest amount of money earned since February 2018’s $5.770 billion.

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018
Month
Avg Export (Mil)
Avg Price
Earnings (Bil)
Jan 2014
2.228
$102.37
$7.073
Feb
2.799
$102.05
$7.9
Mar
2.396
$101.03
$7.507
Apr
2.51
$100.69
$7.582
May
2.58
$100.69
$8.077
Jun
2.423
$102.96
$7.47
Jul
2.442
$102.27
$7.8
Aug
2.375
$97.44
$7.172
Sep
2.542
$90.76
$7
Oct
2.461
$81.12
$6.19
Nov
2.51
$70.40
$5.238
Dec
2.94
$57
$5.195
2014 Totals
2.517
$92.39
$7.017
Jan 2015
2.535
$41.45
$3.258
Feb
2.597
$47.43
$3.449
Mar
2.980
$48.24
$3.449
Apr
3.077
$51.70
$4.8
May
3.145
$55.87
$5.447
Jun
3.187
$55.32
$5.289
Jul
3.105
$50.99
$4.908
Aug
3.079
$40.59
$3.925
Sep
3.052
$40.32
$3.725
Oct
2.703
$39.56
$3.29
Nov
3.363
$36.42
$3.66
Dec
3.216
$29.84
$2.92
2015 Totals
3.003
$44.81
$4.094
Jan 2016
3.285
$22.21
$2.262
Feb
3.224
$23
$2.249
Mar
3.287
$28.40
$2.894
Apr
3.363
$33.38
$3.368
May
3.2
$37.78
$3.748
Jun
3.175
$40.36
$3.845
Jul
3.203
$38.28
$3.802
Aug
3.229
$29.24
$3.928
Sep
3.276
$38.89
$3.822
Oct
3.384
-
$4.426
Nov
3.47
$40
$4.216
Dec
3.52
-
$5.074
2016 Totals
3.302
-
$3.625
Jan 2017
3.321
-
$5.002
Feb
3.270
-
$4.514
Mar
3.258
$47.18
$4.766
Apr
3.253
$47.27
$4.607
May
3.261
$47
$4.623
Jun
3.273
$42.07
$4.144
Jul
3.230
$43.80
$4.386
Aug
3.216
-
$4.608
Sep
3.24
-
$4.882
Oct
3.346
$52.59
$5.456
Nov
3.502
$59.19
$6.021
Dec
3.535
$59.35
$6.504
2017 Totals
3.309
-
$4.959
Jan 2018
3.490
$63.29
$6.847
Feb
3.426
$60.14
$5.770
Mar
3.453
$59.95
$6.418
Apr
3.340
$64.60
$6.502
May
3.489
$69.80
$7.551
Jun
3.521
$69.32
$7.323
Jul
3.544
$69.16
$7.532
Aug
3.583
$69.65
$7.735
Sep
3.56
$74.15
$7.919
Oct
3.478
$73.38
$7.908
Nov
3.377
$61.09
$6.195
Dec
3.726
$52.80
$6.234
2018 Totals
3.498
$65.61
$6.953
Jan 2019
3.649
$56.15
$6.367
Feb
3.621
$60.83
$6.168

SOURCES

Lando, Ben, “Federal and KRG exports hold steady in February,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/4/19

Lando, Ben and Heuvelen, Ben, “Iraq sustains near-record exports to start 2019,” Iraq Oil Report, 2/4/19

Reuters, “Iraq’s total oil exports average 3.620 mln bpd in February -Oil Ministry,” 3/1/19

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