Iraq’s oil exports passed 2 million barrels a day for the first time since the Iran War started in February. This was accomplished by drastically reducing prices and making a deal with Iran to allow ships carrying Iraqi petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iraq recently announced that it was exporting over 3 million barrels a day in oil but this is coming at a huge cost due to Iranian fees to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Arbella Bet-Shlimon can be considered one of the new Iraq researchers who attempted to break free of the conventional wisdom that shaped much of the discourse about the country after 2003. Her City of Black Gold, Oil, Ethnicity, and the making of Modern Kirkuk takes a look at the political and economic development of the city from Ottoman times to the present. Rather than seeing the city as always being divided by competing ethnicities the book creates a history where Kirkuk was shaped by Turkey, England, Iraq, oil and where ethnicity changed over time.
For the first time in five months Iraq’s average daily oil exports passed the one million barrel mark. As major fighting has become sporadic between the U.S. and Iran sales have increased.
In June it appeared that the US-Iran War had subsided and the Strait of Hormuz was once again open. In turn, Iraq began loading tanker ships with its oil. The next month however hostilities were renewed and Baghdad was right back to where it started being unsure of its economic future.
At the start of July it was reported that Iraq wants to boost its oil production to increase its revenues before the global economy begins moving away from petroleum. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said that he set a goal of 7 million barrels a day of output in three years. The premier also told the media that a 10 year economic plan is being created whose goal is reducing the budget’s reliance upon oil from 90% down to 45%. This isn’t much different from all the previous Iraqi PMs that have all spoken about dramatically increasing the oil industry to diversify the economy. The problem is Baghdad has never achieved any of these goals.
An economic advisor to Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said that the government was considering a 100 day emergency economic plan to cover spending and the budget until oil exports could return to pre-war levels.
Until the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 Moscow was Iraq’s biggest supporter. Those ties were developed under the Bakr government and the Soviet Union in the late-1960s. Oles and Bettie Smolanky’s The USSR And Iraq, The Soviet Quest For Influence studies this relationship from the 1950s to the end of the Iran-Iraq War. They refute the common Cold War belief that the Soviets created clientist states like Iraq. Instead the two had common interests that created an alliance between them. The Smolankys argue that Baghdad was able to follow its own national interests without threatening that relationship.
In April Iraq was hoping that it could begin shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz again. That collapsed in May and so did its exports.
Iraq’s oil production has continued to decline because of the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Iraq’s main oil export route through the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. This is having a deleterious effect upon Iraq’s petroleum industry and economy.
The Trump administration dramatically increased the pressure upon Iraq to curtail Iranian influence in the country.
In March Iraq’s oil exports hit the lowest volume since the 2003 invasion due to the Iran War. The conflict is not over yet threatening the industry’s attempt to restart production. This is causing a financial crisis for the most oil dependent country in the world.
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran brought back a sense of peace to Iraq. The Resistance following its Persian sponsors announced a two week halt to operations.
The pro-Iran Resistance was active in Kurdistan and Baghdad. A peshmerga headquarters was hit by four drones on April 5. The next day two blasts were heard near Irbil airport. Four missiles were shot down heading towards the U.S. consulate in Irbil city. Multiple drones were also intercepted in Irbil province with debris hitting a residential area killing two civilians. In Baghdad drones targeted the logistics support center at the airport.
The weekend marked a paradox in Iranian strategy towards Iraq. On the one hand there were a series of attacks upon the Iraqi oil industry and on the other a tanker with Iraqi petroleum passed through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran said Baghdad would be exempt from its blockade.
The Hashd Commission and the pro-Iran Resistance gave some numbers on the impact of the Iran War. The Commission said that there had been 83 attacks upon Hashd units since February 28 leading to 73 dead and 61 injured. The Resistance on the other hand claimed it carried out 753 operations and 23 alone on April 3.
As the Iran War enters its second month Iran and its allies’ strategy has become apparent. They are focusing upon Iraq’s oil industry, the Kurds, the Baghdad Airport and neighboring countries. The Americans and Israel on the other hand don’t appear to have any plan.
In the middle of the night loud explosions were heard in Sulaymaniya City but no other details were provided about what happened.
The Iran War has thrown Iraq into a crisis. It depends upon oil exports to fund its government. While sales are increasing...
