A combination of foreign events is undermining Iraq’s fragile economy. On the one hand the Strait of Hormuz Iraq’s main oil export route remains closed cutting off the country’s main source of revenue. On the other hand, the money Baghdad is making from petroleum is being held hostage by the Trump administration that wants the new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to crackdown upon the pro-Iran Resistance. Together this is driving the government towards insolvency.
On April 8 the ceasefire went into effect between the U.S. and Iran. Hostilities were supposed to stop in Iraq as well as the Resistance announced a two week halt to operations but they have not. Iranian Kurdish groups have been attacked again and again and most recently a Kuwait border post was hit by an Iraqi drone.
On April 11 Iraq’s parliament finally elected a president six months after elections. That was Nizar Amedi from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). This happened despite a boycott by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law.
The news of the day was a series of strikes by the U.S. and Israel across Baghdad. The Federal Police’s 2nd Division was hit in Sabi al-Bour in the north. This was likely a mistake as a nearby Hashd base was also struck. Five police were wounded. A rocket landed on a house in Amiriya killing two civilians while an airstrike blew up a home on Palestine Street. The latter was used to store weapons for the Resistance. Jets also targeted locations in Jamila and Maghreb Street in the east. Five Hashd were wounded at a camp in Taji outside of the city in the north.
The pro-Iran Resistance was active in Kurdistan and Baghdad. A peshmerga headquarters was hit by four drones on April 5. The next day two blasts were heard near Irbil airport. Four missiles were shot down heading towards the U.S. consulate in Irbil city. Multiple drones were also intercepted in Irbil province with debris hitting a residential area killing two civilians. In Baghdad drones targeted the logistics support center at the airport.
The weekend marked a paradox in Iranian strategy towards Iraq. On the one hand there were a series of attacks upon the Iraqi oil industry and on the other a tanker with Iraqi petroleum passed through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran said Baghdad would be exempt from its blockade.
The Hashd Commission and the pro-Iran Resistance gave some numbers on the impact of the Iran War. The Commission said that there had been 83 attacks upon Hashd units since February 28 leading to 73 dead and 61 injured. The Resistance on the other hand claimed it carried out 753 operations and 23 alone on April 3.
As the Iran War enters its second month Iran and its allies’ strategy has become apparent. They are focusing upon Iraq’s oil industry, the Kurds, the Baghdad Airport and neighboring countries. The Americans and Israel on the other hand don’t appear to have any plan.
A military base in Habaniya Anbar was attacked by jets setting off a new controversy. The planes hit a Hashd al-Shaabi intelligence department within the facility. Most news reports said that 7 soldiers were killed and 13 others wounded but Shafaq News said that 15 Hashd were killed and 14 wounded. The Iraqi government condemned the incident saying it was a direct attack upon its forces. This was not the first time a mixed Iraqi forces and Hashd target was hit but the high casualties made it unacceptable to Baghdad. The Sudani government is trying to walk a fine line between criticizing the Resistance which is part of the government and security forces for attacking international troops and businesses while also being upset when the pro-Iran factions suffer casualties.
The Saudi paper Asharq al-Awsat ran a report on Iran’s role in assisting the Resistance in Iraq. It said as soon as the war started on February 28 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Forced moved into Iraq to advise and direct attacks by the Resistance against the U.S. They joined advisors who were already in the country. The operations are run out of a command center in Baghdad with sub-branches in Najaf, Diyala and Basra.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani is trying to play a double game with the pro-Iran Resistance. On the one hand he is criticizing it for attacks upon the government on the other hand he is giving them concessions because factions are in his political camp and he is still hoping that he can win a second term in office with their support.
Iraq’s Oil Ministry announced that it was exporting petroleum once against through Turkey. After Irbil and Baghdad came to an agreement up to 250,000 barrels a day began flowing through a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The United States reportedly played a leading role in getting the two sides together as it wants more oil on the market to try to bring down prices.
There was some fast breaking news on the oil front in Iraq. The Oil Ministry announced it was in talks with Iran to allow some tankers full of Iraqi petroleum to sail through the Strait of Hormuz which has been closed during the war. By the middle of the day Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani said that an agreement had been made on the issue. It would be quite an irony if Iraq and other countries are successful in these operations because it would make Tehran more powerful in the Persian Gulf as Trump keeps announcing that the U.S. is winning.
In another escalation of the Iran War’s impact upon Iraq the spokesman for Kataib Hezbollah Abu Ali Al-Askari was killed. This comes after his father Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi the secretary general of the group was either killed or injured on March 13. The U.S. and Israel has mostly hit units of the pro-Iran Resistance and their allies but has begun taking out leadership members now. Kataib Hezbollah is one of the most militant members of the Resistance and is also a political party with parliamentarians. If both father and son were taken out this would be a dramatic loss for the organization.
Iraq’s oil exports have been cut off due to the Iran War. It is in discussions with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) to use its pipeline to Turkey but the two can’t agree on the details.
On March 12 Ansar Allah’s 19th Hashd Brigade was struck by at least two airstrikes in Akashat, Anbar. When rescue teams arrived they were hit as well. At least 35 were killed and around 90 were wounded. That was by far the highest number of casualties by any operation by the United States and Israel since the Iran War started. Before that the Hashd announced that there had been a total of 27 dead and 50 injured.
In the late hours of March 11 two oil tankers off the coast of Iraq were hit by a booby trapped boat. One crew member was killed and several were injured. This was the second time a tanker was hit in Basra waters.
As the war with Iran enters its third day Iraq continues to be impacted. There were continued strikes within its territory while the country’s oil industry is coming under threat which may undermine the state.
Baghdad was hoping that it would not be involved in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict but it has. All sides along with the pro-Iran Resistance have carried out operations within its territory.
1921 1 st Iraqi cabinet formed under newly coronated King Faisal Abd al-Rahman al-Gaylani became Iraq’s 1 st PM ( Musings On Ir...
