In June it appeared that the US-Iran War had subsided and the Strait of Hormuz was once again open. In turn, Iraq began loading tanker ships with its oil. By the end of the month however hostilities were renewed and Baghdad was right back to where it started being unsure of its economic future.
In June Iraq exported an average of 734,000 barrels a day according to Iraq Oil Report. That was up from 286,000 barrels a day in May, 329,000 bar/day in April, and 600,000 barrels in March when the Strait was closed down. The rise in sales was due to the short lived ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran which allowed ships to dock once again in Iraq’s Basra port. That is now over.
The increase in exports led to the highest monthly profits since March. The Oil Ministry brought in $1.528 billion in June compared to $911 million in May, $1.087 billion in April and $1.957 billion in March. This still pales in comparison to before the conflict when Iraq was making over $6 billion a month.
Iraq is the most oil dependent country in the world so the drop in petroleum revenue had a dramatic impact upon the budget leading to a growing deficit and borrowing in the billions of dollars. That crisis is not over yet as the Iran-U.S. war has heated up once again.
To deal with the closure of the Strait Baghdad is working on alternative routes. For one, Baghdad and Ankara came to a one year interim agreement to keep the pipeline to Turkey open until a long term deal is made. Second, Iraq and Syria signed a memorandum of understanding to revitalize the pipeline between the two countries. It is in need of dramatic repair as it has not been used since 2003. Chevron, IT Capital, and Qatar’s UCC are going to work on the pipeline. Third Iraq and Jordan are discussing building a pipeline. These are all long term programs which will have no impact upon the immediate situation. They are also full of potential problems given corruption in Iraqi contacting, red tape, financing, and the need to work out the politics and economics between the three countries. Baghdad’s history is to over promise and under perform.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2021-2024
|
Month |
Avg Export (Mil) |
Earnings (Bil) |
|
Jan 2023 |
3.266 |
$7.663 |
|
Feb |
3.184 |
$7.081 |
|
Mar |
3.255 |
$7.506 |
|
Apr |
3.288 |
$7.699 |
|
May |
3.305 |
$7.325 |
|
Jun |
3.335 |
$7.115 |
|
Jul |
3.444 |
$8.294 |
|
Aug |
3.423 |
$8.998 |
|
Sep |
3.438 |
$9.422 |
|
Oct |
3.534 |
$9.594 |
|
Nov |
3.433 |
$8.482 |
|
Dec |
3.486 |
$8.311 |
|
2023 Avg |
3.365 |
$8.124 |
|
Jan 2024 |
3.339 |
$8.026 |
|
Feb |
3.434 |
$7.96 |
|
Mar |
3.423 |
$8.65 |
|
Apr |
3.413 |
$8.75 |
|
May |
3.359 |
$8.14 |
|
Jun |
3.41 |
$8.25 |
|
Jul |
3.486 |
$9.08 |
|
Aug |
3.414 |
$8.49 |
|
Sep |
3.31 |
$7.11 |
|
Oct |
3.327 |
$7.47 |
|
Nov |
3.296 |
$7.01 |
|
Dec |
3.259 |
$7.15 |
|
2024 Avg |
3.372 |
$8.00 |
|
Jan 2025 |
3.298 |
$7.47 |
|
Feb |
3.398 |
$6.7 |
|
Mar |
3.441 |
$7.717 |
|
Apr |
3.365 |
$6.738 |
|
May |
3.278 |
$6.362 |
|
Jun |
3.296 |
$6.698 |
|
Jul |
3.379 |
$7.185 |
|
Aug |
3.381 |
$7.160 |
|
Sep |
3.405 |
$6.962 |
|
Oct |
3.578 |
$7.031 |
|
Nov |
3.553 |
$6.595 |
|
Dec |
3.473 |
$6.388 |
|
2025 Avg |
3.404 |
$6.917 |
|
Jan 2026 |
3.471 |
$6.485 |
|
Feb |
3.567 |
$6.815 |
|
Mar |
0.6 |
$1.957 |
|
Apr |
0.329 |
$1.087 |
|
May |
0.286 |
$0.911 |
|
Jun |
0.734 |
$1.528 |
SOURCES
Fitzgerald, Kyle, “Iraq and Syria agree to revive defunct crude oil pipeline,” The National, 7/17/26
Iraq Oil Report, “Iraqi production starts to rebound, but export disruptions persist,” 7/20/26
Kurdistan 24, “Turkiye, Iraq Finalize One-Year Oil Export Agreement Through Ceyhan,” 7/9/26
Oweis, Khaled Yacoub, “Strait of Hormuz crisis prompts Iraq and Jordan to revisit oil pipeline plan,” The National, 7/16/26
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