No Ramadan Offensive By The Islamic State Yet

Ramadan started at the end of March 2023. This is usually when the Islamic State begins an annual offensive. Instead of violence picking up it declined for the third straight month.

 

There were only 9 security incidents in Iraq reported in the media during March. That was the lowest monthly total since 2003.

 

There were 17 incidents in February, 25 in January and 32 in December. Last year the Islamic State were able to ramp up attacks from 28 in February to 89 in April. Since then the group has been on a steady decline to oblivion in Iraq.

 

Overall there have been an average of 17 incidents per month in 2023. That compares to 40.2 per month in 2022, 69.9 per month in 2021, 85.5 per month in 2020, 95.5 per month in 2019, and 166.6 in 2018.

 

In March there were incidents in Baghdad (1), Diyala (4), Kirkuk (1), Ninewa (1), and Salahaddin (2).

 

Those led to 18 dead and 8 wounded. 1 member of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 2 Hashd al-Shaabi and 15 civilians were killed while 1 ISF, 3 civilians and 4 Hashd were injured. Diyala had the most casualties with 16 the other provinces were in single digits.

 

In March there was a shootout with insurgents in the Tarmiya district in the northern section of Baghdad that left 1 Hashd dead. This has become one of the most violent areas of the country. There have been an average of 3.6 incidents per month there in 2023 the second most in Iraq.

 

There were four incidents in Diyala during the month. There was an assassination of a civilian and three members of a family were gunned down both in the Khalis area in the north. A man who was kidnapped in Khanaqin in the northeast was found dead and the biggest incident was when a village was attacked in the Muqdadiya district in the center of the province that saw 8 deaths and 3 injured. IS remains the most active in Diyala with an average of 5.3 incidents per month this year.

 

Three Hashd were wounded by an IED in Kirkuk. There are only 1.3 incidents per month there.

 

There was only one incident in Ninewa as well when an old IED exploded and took the lives of two children. That means there were only 8 actual attacks in March.

 

Finally in Salahaddin a Hashd patrol was hit by an IED that left one dead and one injured and a group of ISF were attacked that also left one killed and one wounded. Both of those occurred in the Tuz Kharmato district in the east. There have been 2.3 incidents per month in the governorate

 

Overall there were just two offensive operations in March. Those were the assault on the village in Diyala and the attack on the ISF in Salahaddin.

 

The insurgents have lost all their networks into the country’s urban centers and the south. It is completely relegated to isolated rural, mountainous and desert regions. It is barely able to launch offensive operations each week.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31	Totals
Baghdad	-	-	1	-	-	1
Diyala	2	1	-	-	1	4
Kirkuk	-	-	1	-	-	1
Ninewa	-	-	-	1	-	1
Salahaddin	1	1	-	-	-	2
TOTAL	3	2	2	1	1	9

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28	Mar 29-31	Totals
Baghdad	-	-	1 (1K)	-	-	1 (1K)
Diyala	12 (9K, 3W)	1 (1K)	-	-	3 (3K)	16 (13K, 3W)
Kirkuk	-	-	3 (3W)	-	-	3 (3W)
Ninewa	-	-	-	2 (2K)	-	2 (2K)
Salahaddin	2 (1K, 1W)	2 (1K, 1W)	-	-	-	4 (2K, 2W)
TOTAL	14 (10K, 4W)	3 (2K, 1W)	4 (1K, 3W)	2 (2K)	3 (3K)	26 (18K, 8W)

 

Security In Iraq 2022-23

Week	Security Incidents (Total/By IS)	Dead (Total/By IS)	Wounded (Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7	18/9	3	4
Jan 8-14	35/21	3	18
Jan 15-21	12/5	17	12
Jan 22-28	16/3	8	19
Jan 29-31	6/2	2	6
JAN	87/41	33	59
Feb 1-7	11/3	1	10
Feb 8-14	14/6	8	3
Feb 15-21	9/1	-	11
Feb 22-28	8/4	1	5
FEB	42/14	10	29
Mar 1-7	7/3	1	-
Mar 8-14	18/3/1	6	5
Mar 15-21	10/4	5	6
Mar 22-28	6/1	7	4
Mar 29-31	4/1	-	5
MAR	46/12/1	19	21
Apr 1-7	16/8	-	6
Apr 8-14	21/7	8	25
Apr 15-21	22/2	10	22
Apr 22-28	44/4	14	44
Apr 29-30	6/1	2	6
APR	111/22	34	103
May 1-7	31/3	8	25
May 8-14	9/2	2	7
May 15-21	18/6	10	6
May 22-28	13/1	21	11
May 29-31	2/1	-	2
MAY	73/13	41	51
Jun 1-7	6/2	-	8
Jun 8-14	12/4	1	9
Jun 15-21	10/2	5	2
Jun 22-28	12/6	1	14
Jun 29-30	-	-	-
JUN	40/14	7	33
Jul 1-7	7/1	6	11
Jul 8-14	3	-	2
Jul 15-21	11/2	14	16
Jul 22-28	18/7	9	21
Jul 29-31	4	4	4
JUL	43/6	33	54
Aug 1-7	9/1	6	15
Aug 8-14	14	2	14
Aug 15-21	7/2	-	6
Aug 22-28	23/4	14	15
Aug 29-31	4	2	4
AUG	57/7/1	24	54
Sep 1-7	11/1	3	20
Sep 8-14	5	-	12
Sep 15-21	12	4	14
Sep 22-28	10/2 M	2	16
Sep 29-30	3/1 M	-	2
SEP	41/1/3 M	9	64
Oct 1-7	9/2 M	6	16
Oct 8-14	8/2/1 M	5	19
Oct 15-21	6	4	7
Oct 22-28	3	2	1
Oct 29-31	2	-	2
OCT	28/2/3 M	17	45
Nov 1-7	7	1	3
Nov 8-14	6	1	8
Nov 15-21	8	7	17
Nov 22-28	2	1	-
Nov 29-30	-	-	-
NOV	23	10	28
Dec 1-7	13/1	6	11
Dec 8-14	6	7	8
Dec 15-21	6	29	15
Dec 22-28	6	-	4
Dec 29-31	2	-	-
DEC	33/1	42	38
Jan 1-7	7	4	2
Jan 8-14	6/1	5	2
Jan 15-21	11/1	2	7
Jan 22-28	5/2	1	2
Jan 29-31	1	-	2
JAN	29/4	12	15
Feb 1-7	6/2	1	5
Feb 8-14	1	-	2
Feb 15-21	4	4	8
Feb 22-28	9/1	7	3
FEB	20/3	12	18
Mar 1-7	3	10	4
Mar 8-14	2	2	1
Mar 15-21	2	1	3
Mar 22-28	1	2	-
Mar 29-31	1	3	-
MAR	9	18	8

 

Violence By Province March 2023

Province	Violence	2018 Avg	2019 Avg	2020 Avg	2021 Avg	2022 Avg	2023 Avg
Anbar	-	12.6 incidents/ month	8.6 incidents/ month	7.0 incidents/ month	4.6 incidents/ month	2.0 incidents/month	0.6 Incidents/month
Babil	-	4.0 incidents/month	3.0 incidents/month	2.7 incidents/month	2.5 incidents/month	2.0 incidents/month	0.3 Incidents/month
Baghdad	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 Hashd   1 Shooting	33.0 incidents/month	11.6 incidents/month	7.3 incidents/month	5.6 incidents/ month	3.5 incidents/month	3.6 Incidents/month
Diyala	4 Incidents 13 Killed 13 Civilians 3 Wounded 3 Civilians   3 Shootings 1 IED	38.6 incidents/month	30.0 incidents/month	30.6 incidents/month	22.8 incidents/month	12.2 incidents/month	5.3 Incidents/month
Kirkuk	1 Incident 3 Wounded 3 Hashd   1 IED	36.5 incidents/month	18.6 incidents/month	13.9 incidents/month	11.6 incidents/month	8.2 incidents/month	1.3 Incidents/month
Ninewa	1 Incident 2 Killed 2 Civilians   1 IED	20.0 incidents/month	13.2 incidents/month	10.6 incidents/month	8.4 incidents/month	6.0 incidents/month	3 Incidents/month
Salahaddin	2 Incidents 2 Killed 1 Hashd 1 ISF 2 Wounded 1 Hashd 1 ISF   1 Shooting 1 IED	21.7 incidents/month	10.6 incidents/month	11.2 incidents/month	11.5 incidents/month	5.5 incidents/month	2.3 Incidents/month
IRAQ	9 Incidents 18 Killed 1 ISF 2 Hashd 15 Civilians 8 Wounded 1 ISF 3 Civilians 4 Hashd   4 Shootings 4 IEDs	166.6 incidents/month	95.5 incidents/month	85.5 incidents/month	69.9 incidents/month	40.2 incidents/month	17 Incidents/month

 

SOURCES

 

NINA, "2 children killed in an IED's explosion while grazing sheep, southeast of Mosul," 3/28/23

- "The assassination of a civilian in Al-Khalis, in Diyala," 3/3/23

- "A fighter of the Popular Mobilization Forces killed when an explosive device exploded in Amerli Operation Sector," 3/7/23

- "A security element killed and another one wounded in an ISIS terrorist attack south of Kirkuk," 3/8/23

- "Three members of one family killed in an armed attack north of Baquba," 3/29/23

- "Three members of the Popular Mobilization intelligence injured when an explosive device exploded in Kirkuk," 3/18/23

- "Two ISIS members killed and a member of the Popular Mobilization Forces killed in armed clashes north of Baghdad," 3/15/23

 

NRT, "ISIS Says Group Killed Shepherd Kidnapped In Kifri," 3/12/23

 

Shafaq News, "The death toll from the Al-Muqdadiya attack rose to 11 victims and injured," 3/7/23