For the second month Iraq’s oil exports and revenues dipped posing more problems for the country’s bloated budget.
In December Iraq averaged 3.473 million barrels a day in oil exports. That was down from 3.553 million in November and 3.578 million in October. From June to October foreign sales were growing as OPEC+ loosened its production quotas. Then in October there was an accident at the Zubayr-1 field in Basra. Southern exports which make up the vast majority of the country’s sales are still recovering.
For the year Iraq averaged 3.404 million barrels a day in exports which was up from 3.372 million in 2024 and the highest amount since 2003.
Iraq’s revenues have been declining which is a much bigger problem. In December Iraq earned $6.333 billion compared to $6.595 billion in November.
In 2025 the country averaged $6.80 billion a month versus $8.00 billion in 2024. 2025 was the lowest profits since 2021.
This is causing all kinds of problems for Iraq’s finances. In 2022 Baghdad passed a three year budget based upon $91 per barrel of oil. In 2024 Iraqi oil was going for $77.76 per barrel and in 2025 that dropped to $66.84. This is leading to a growing budget deficit.
The government claims it can draw upon the Central Bank of Iraq’s foreign reserves to cover its deficit. The Bank however warned that its reserves are being drained with lower oil revenues and selling more dollars at auction.
This will be one of the biggest issues facing the new government when it is finalized. Unfortunately the elite never take this issue seriously believing that oil prices will always recover fixing any budget problems. The disparity between constantly increasing spending and declining revenues however may be coming to a breaking point.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2021-2024
|
Month |
Avg Export (Mil) |
Earnings (Bil) |
|
Jan 2021 |
2.868 |
$4.765 |
|
Feb |
2.96 |
$5.013 |
|
Mar |
2.946 |
$5.787 |
|
Apr |
2.947 |
$5.549 |
|
May |
2.899 |
$5.917 |
|
Jun |
2.892 |
$6.143 |
|
Jul |
2.918 |
$6.476 |
|
Aug |
3.054 |
$6.553 |
|
Sep |
3.081 |
$6.777 |
|
Oct |
3.12 |
$7.666 |
|
Nov |
3.272 |
$7.611 |
|
Dec |
3.277 |
$7.391 |
|
2021 Avg |
3.019 |
$6.303 |
|
Jan 2022 |
3.203 |
$8.323 |
|
Feb |
3.314 |
$8.544 |
|
Mar |
3.244 |
$10.913 |
|
Apr |
3.38 |
$10.554 |
|
May |
3.3 |
$11.44 |
|
Jun |
3.373 |
$11.505 |
|
Jul |
3.303 |
$10.608 |
|
Aug |
3.286 |
$9.784 |
|
Sep |
3.292 |
$8.845 |
|
Oct |
3.382 |
$9.258 |
|
Nov |
3.329 |
$8.231 |
|
Dec |
3.332 |
$7.709 |
|
2022 Avg |
3.311 |
$9.64 |
|
Jan 2023 |
3.266 |
$7.663 |
|
Feb |
3.184 |
$7.081 |
|
Mar |
3.255 |
$7.506 |
|
Apr |
3.288 |
$7.699 |
|
May |
3.305 |
$7.325 |
|
Jun |
3.335 |
$7.115 |
|
Jul |
3.444 |
$8.294 |
|
Aug |
3.423 |
$8.998 |
|
Sep |
3.438 |
$9.422 |
|
Oct |
3.534 |
$9.594 |
|
Nov |
3.433 |
$8.482 |
|
Dec |
3.486 |
$8.311 |
|
2023 Avg |
3.365 |
$8.124 |
|
Jan 2024 |
3.339 |
$8.026 |
|
Feb |
3.434 |
$7.96 |
|
Mar |
3.423 |
$8.65 |
|
Apr |
3.413 |
$8.75 |
|
May |
3.359 |
$8.14 |
|
Jun |
3.41 |
$8.25 |
|
Jul |
3.486 |
$9.08 |
|
Aug |
3.414 |
$8.49 |
|
Sep |
3.31 |
$7.11 |
|
Oct |
3.327 |
$7.47 |
|
Nov |
3.296 |
$7.01 |
|
Dec |
3.259 |
$7.15 |
|
2024 Avg |
3.372 |
$8.00 |
|
Jan 2025 |
3.298 |
$7.47 |
|
Feb |
3.398 |
$6.7 |
|
Mar |
3.441 |
$7.717 |
|
Apr |
3.365 |
$6.738 |
|
May |
3.278 |
$6.362 |
|
Jun |
3.296 |
$6.698 |
|
Jul |
3.379 |
$7.185 |
|
Aug |
3.381 |
$7.160 |
|
Sep |
3.405 |
$6.962 |
|
Oct |
3.578 |
$7.031 |
|
Nov |
3.553 |
$6.595 |
|
Dec |
3.473 |
$6.333 |
|
2025 Avg |
3.404 |
$6.80 |
SOURCES
Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Iraq’s 2025 oil exports steady as renewed Turkey flows offset Basra dip,” Iraq Oil Report, 1/8/26
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