Review Bush At War

Review Woodward, Bob, Bush At War, New York, London, Toronto, Sydney, Singapore: Simon & Schuster, 2002

Bush At War was the first of four books by Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward on the Bush administration’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. This one covers the aftermath of 9/11 that led to the invasion of Afghanistan and then has a little on the public campaign for the Iraq War launched in 2002 in the Epilogue. Woodward provided important insight into how the Bush White House operated and how that led to failures in both conflicts.

Despite Increasing Violence Iraq Still Far More Deadlier Than Afghanistan In 2013

Iraq and Afghanistan are both in the news, but for all the wrong reasons. The United Nations recently released a paper noting increased civilian casualties in Afghanistan. In Iraq, the insurgency is seeing a re-birth carrying out almost daily bombings. When comparing the two, Iraq is still more than twice as deadly as Afghanistan.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) held a press conference on July 31, 2013 warning of a jump in violence in the first half of the year. UNAMA reported 1,319 dead civilians in Afghanistan from January to June 2013. That was a 23% increase from the 1,158 that died during the first six months of 2012. 2,533 were wounded as well in the first half of 2013 compared to 1,976 in the same time period in 2012. The U.N. blamed groups like the Taliban for using for more roadside bombs, which were taking a heavier toll on the population. Even if the pace of attacks and casualties were to continue for the rest of the year, 2013 would turn out to have roughly the same number of deaths as 2012 when the U.N. noted 2,754 fatalities. That was down from 2011 when 3,131 died, and just about the same as 2010 when there were 2,790 killed. Based upon UNAMA’s figures, violence in Afghanistan seems to have plateaued in the last four and a half years despite the recent uptick.

UNAMA Civilian Deaths In Afghanistan 2007-2013

	Afghanistan Civilian Deaths
2007	1,523
2008	2,118
2009	2,412
2010	2,790
2011	3,131
2012	2,754
1st 6 mo 2013	1,319

U.N. Casualty Figures In Afghanistan vs. Iraq 1^st 2012-2013

	Afghanistan	Iraq
2012	2,754	3,878
1st Half 2013	1,319	3,209

U.N. Casualty Figures In Iraq 2^nd Half of 2012 vs. 1^st Half of 2013

	2nd Half 2012	1st Half 2013	Increase
Civilian Deaths	1,777	3,209	+180%

Violence in Iraq appears to be much worse than in Afghanistan, and is going up at a faster rate. For the first six months of 2013, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) reported 3,209 killed and 7,799 wounded. That was 43% higher than Afghanistan’s death toll, and 300% more wounded. For all of last year, UNAMI recorded 3,878 Iraqis killed, higher than 2,754 in Afghanistan. More importantly, the United Nations has seen a dramatic jump in violence with deaths going up 180% from the second half of last year to the first half of this one. There are two reasons for the differences. First, Iraq is a much more urban country offering far more targets for militants. Baghdad for example has an estimated population of just over 7 million people. Kabul in comparison only has a little over 3 million. Second, the Iraqi insurgency is making a dramatic comeback. Not only are Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Baathist Naqshibandi more active today, but a variety of smaller groups like the Islamic Army and Ansar al-Sunna are as well. They have been revitalized by the release of thousands of their fighters following the U.S. military withdrawal, the Sunni protest movement, and the Iraqi security forces reactive and repressive tactics, along with their weak intelligence abilities.

Iraq and Afghanistan are both suffering from instability and insurgent movements. There are major differences between the two. One is that Iraq’s militants have far more opportunities to strike at large numbers of people in the country’s cities. They are also determined to cause as many civilian casualties as possible in an attempt to re-start the sectarian war. The U.S. withdrawal also ended the Iraqi security forces use of counterinsurgency operations and swelled the ranks of fighters. That together with the current political climate where large numbers of Sunnis are not only complaining about their marginalization at the hands of the government, but calling for self-defense if not outright violence against Baghdad, and you have a nation spiraling downward with little hope of reversing things in the foreseeable future. Perhaps Afghanistan will face a similar situation when the international forces pull out there, but for now Iraq appears to be facing a different magnitude of violence.

SOURCES

Ahmed, Azam, “Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan Rise as U.S. Prepares Pullout,” New York Times, 7/31/13

United National Assistance Mission for Iraq, “Civilian Casualties”

United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, “Number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan rises in first half of 2013,” 7/31/13

Iraq Still A Far Deadlier Place Than Afghanistan

Many have tried to compare Iraq and Afghanistan, but the nature of their conflicts are quite different. Afghanistan has a healthy insurgency, and is a mostly rural nation. Iraq on the other hand suffers from high levels of urban terrorism. For five of the last six years casualties in Afghanistan have increased, while Iraq’s have dropped dramatically for three years, and then increased slightly over the last two. Most would think that Afghanistan would suffer from far higher levels of violence, but in fact, Iraq’s militants have been able to take a far deadlier toll. That’s because Iraq’s large cities provide far more targets of opportunity than are available in Afghanistan.

When comparing the number of civilian deaths in the two countries, Iraq has far more than Afghanistan. According to the United Nations, there were 1,523 civilians killed in 2007, 2,118 in 2008, 2,412 in 2009, 2,790 in 2010, peaking at 3,131 in 2011, before dropping to 2,754 in 2012. Iraq Body Count recorded 25,280 deaths in 2007, 9,626 in 2008, 4,967 in 2009, 4,073 in 2010, 4,144 in 2011, and 4,568 in 2012. The numbers cannot be directly compared, because Iraq Body Count includes police fatalities, while the United Nations does not. By going through Iraq Body Count’s individual incident reports, the statistics for civilians killed in Iraq can be discerned. In 2012 for instance, there were 3,717 civilian deaths in Iraq. That was still far higher than the 2,754 seen in Afghanistan that year. The statistics for Iraq are so much higher that it can only be assumed that it is deadlier than Afghanistan. 2011 might be the only year that the two were close, because Iraq had around 1,000 more deaths then, which is roughly how many Iraqi police are killed annually. The reason why Iraq still has far higher death counts is because of the change in tactics taken by the country’s militants. After the civil war ended in 2008, the majority of the public was tired of fighting. That led to many turning on militants, which eventually ended most of the insurgency. The remnants have now increasingly turned to terrorist bombings in an attempt to undermine the government and restart the sectarian conflict. That’s shown in the fact that Iraq Body Count recorded 7.3 people killed per day in suicide or car bombings compared to 5.0 by gunfire in 2012. Iraq provides plenty of targets, because 66% of the population is urban. Afghanistan has a thriving insurgency, but the country is mostly rural. Only 23% of the population lives in cities there. Much of the fighting occurs out in the country and in small towns where the population is more spread out. Overall, there are far fewer opportunities to kill large numbers of people each year in Afghanistan than in Iraq.

 

Comparison of Deaths In Afghanistan and Iraq 2007-2012

	Afghanistan Civilian Deaths	Iraq Civilian & Police Deaths
2007	1,523	25,280
2008	2,118	9,626
2009	2,412	4,967
2010	2,790	4,073
2011	3,131	4,144
2012	2,754	4,568

 

Iraq and Afghanistan are suffering from different forms of violence. In Afghanistan, the insurgency is mostly fighting the government and Western forces, along with targeting public workers. In Iraq, civilians are the main victims of attacks as militants there are trying to stoke tensions amongst the Shiites to restart the civil war, and have largely given up directly confronting the police and army. Mass casualty bombings occur far more often in Iraq as a result. With large urban populations these acts of terrorism usually take a far higher toll than they do in Afghanistan. That accounts for why Iraq remains a deadlier place than Afghanistan.

SOURCES

CIA, The World Factbook

Iraq Body Count

United Nations Mission in Afghanistan, “Afghanistan civilian casualty figures drop for the first time in 6 years,” 2/19/13

Iraq Remains A Deadlier Place Than Afghanistan

The State Department recently released its annual report on terrorism. It included a comparison of Iraq and Afghanistan. It showed that the security situation in the two countries have been going in opposite directions. The number of attacks in Afghanistan has slowly been increasing, while in Iraq they have hit a plateau. At the same time, Iraq has remained a far more deadly place.

Violence in Iraq has leveled off since the end of the sectarian civil war. In Iraq, attacks declined from 2007 to 2009, and then flat lined. According to the State Department, there were 6,210 attacks in 2007, 3,255 in 2008, 2,458 in 2009, 2,687 in 2010, and 2,265 in 2011. The number of casualties, which included killed, wounded, and kidnapped, followed a straight downward trend going from 44,014 in 2007 to 19,077 in 2008 to 16,869 in 2009 to 15,108 in 2010 until finally hitting 12,912 in 2011. That drop concealed the fact that security incidents had almost the same amount of victims during that five-year stretch. In 2007, there were 7.08 casualties per attack, 5.86 per attack in 2008, 6.86 in 2009, 5.62 in 2010, and 5.38 in 2011. The insurgency has lost most of its popular support, and cannot carry out anything like the number of operations as it once did. Likewise, the militias are no longer fighting against Sunni militants, and largely concentrated upon the Americans afterwards that didn’t cause half as many dead and wounded. At the same time, despite the drop in attacks, militants have been able to cause almost as many casualties in 2011 as 2008 showing that they have adapted to the new security situation within the country. Al Qaeda in Iraq for instance, specializes in targeting Shiites at every pilgrimage and celebration each year. In just a few bombings they can cause mass casualties highlighting their economy of force.

The state of security in Afghanistan is much different. There attacks have steadily increased. In 2007 there were 1,122, 1,219 in 2008, 2,124 in 2009, 3,346 in 2010, and 2,872 in 2011. That coincided with the number of casualties increasing as well. There were 4,647 in 2007, 5,488 in 2008, 7,588 in 2009, 9,035 in 2010, and 9,171 in 2011. Looking at those figures it would seem that Afghanistan was a more dangerous place than Iraq since there were more security incidents and people killed, wounded, and kidnapped. When analyzing how many casualties were caused per incident however, a different picture emerges. The statistics showed a slight decline from 2007 to 2011. In 2007, there were 4.14 casualties per attack. That went slightly up to 4.50 per attack in 2008, before going down to 3.57 in 2009, 2.70 in 2010, and 3.19 in 2011. That means that while the Afghan insurgents are carrying out more and more operations each year, they are leading to fewer casualties. They are actually becoming less efficient even though the aggregate numbers would point to the opposite conclusion.

Comparison Of Violence In Iraq To Afghanistan 2007-2011

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Attacks in Iraq	6,210	3,255	2,458	2,687	2,265
People killed, wounded, kidnapped by terrorism	44,014	19,077	16,869	15,108	12,192
People killed, wounded, kidnapped per attack	7.08	5.86	6.86	5.62	5.38
Attacks in Afghanistan	1,122	1,219	2,124	3,346	2,872
People killed, wounded, kidnapped by terrorism	4,647	5,488	7,588	9,035	9,171
People killed, wounded, and kidnapped per attack	4.14	4.50	3.57	2.70	3.19

Events in Afghanistan receive far more press coverage than Iraq these days. That’s largely because there are American and European forces in the former, while none in the latter. The fighting in Afghanistan also seems more intractable and open ended than in Iraq. What the statistics reveal is a far more determined and adaptable group of insurgents in Iraq than in Afghanistan. Despite the increase in operations, the bases in neighboring Pakistan, and the support of parts of the government there, the Afghan insurgents have proven to be less deadly over the last five years. The exact opposite has been happening in Iraq. There, the militants have become more and more efficient. They have adapted to the loss of much of their popular support and the end of the sectarian war, and honed their skills. That all shows their resiliency when many believed they would be in decline by now. It also highlights the deadlock in security that Iraq is currently facing where the insurgents cannot challenge the government, but it cannot eliminate the militants. The result is that both Iraq and Afghanistan have a future of violence before them.

SOURCE

United States Department of State Bureau of Counterterrorism, “Country Reports on Terrorism 2011,” July 2012

Iraq Still A Deadlier Place Than Afghanistan

In the West, Afghanistan has garnered far more press than Iraq in recent years. The deployment of additional troops under President Obama, and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq were the two main causes. The media made it appear that Afghanistan was a far deadlier conflict than Iraq, which no longer has a full blown insurgency, and suffers more from a very serious terrorist threat. Statistics just released by the United Nations however, show that far more people died in Iraq in 2011 than in Afghanistan.

The United Nations just released an end of the year report on violence in Afghanistan for 2011. The paper, put together by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and the United Nations Assistance Mission In Afghanistan counted 3,021 civilian deaths last year. That was the fifth year in a row that casualties had gone up in the country. In 2010, 2,790 were killed, and in 2009, 2,412. Last year, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were the deadliest weapon used in the conflict, accounting for 32% of all deaths. After that, 495 were killed in targeted assassinations, and another 450 died from suicide bombers. That showed that militants in the country were using more standoff weapons, and going after specific members of the security forces and government rather than participating in large-scale operations involving many fighters.

	Afghanistan (U.N.)	Iraq (Iraq Body Count)
2011	3,021	4,087
2010	2,790	4,045
2009	2,412	4,713

Iraq had far higher numbers for the last three years. Iraq Body Count, which is widely regarded as the most accurate compiler of casualties in the country had 4,087 deaths in 2011, followed by 4,045 in 2010, and 4,713 in 2009. Even averages of Iraq Body Count, the United Nations, and the Iraqi government resulted in higher figures than were seen in Afghanistan. In 2011 for instance, there was an average of 3,244 deaths, and in 2010, an average of 4,204. Based upon the Iraq Body Count figures, more than 1,000 people were killed in Iraq last year than Afghanistan. In total, Iraq had 35% more casualties in 2011. In 2009, the numbers were even starker with just under twice as many people killed in Iraq as in Afghanistan. The two countries are also a good comparison, because they have roughly the same populations. According to the Central Intelligence Agency, Afghanistan had an estimated 29,835,392 people in 2011, compared to 30,399,572 in Iraq. 

The numbers show that while the Afghan insurgency has grown deadlier, it is not as effective as the militants in Iraq who are in decline. Iraq no longer has a civil war or even a brewing insurgency. Like in Afghanistan, most attacks in Iraq today are IEDs or car bombs. Militants and security forces hardly ever face each other, and insurgents can no longer operate openly as they once did with parades and videos made in the streets of large cities. Afghanistan on the other hand, has large swaths where militants can operate, plus safe havens in Pakistan, and the support of the military there. What Iraq has is a more urban culture, which provides far more targets than rural Afghanistan. It is much easier in Iraq for instance, to plant a bomb in a high-density area, and get large casualty figures than it is in Afghanistan. For that reason, Iraq is likely to continue to be a deadlier place than Afghanistan into the foreseeable future, despite the decline of the insurgency there.

SOURCES

CIA World Factbook

Iraq Body Count

United Nations Assistance Mission In Afghanistan, “UNAMA PRESS RELEASE: Civilian casualties rise for fifth consecutive year in Afghan conflict,” 2/4/12