Security Situation Still Dire In Iraq With Insurgents On The Offensive And Security Forces Ineffective

June 2013 was another violent month in Iraq. Since the beginning of the year, attacks and deaths across the country have been steadily increasing. That reached new levels after the security forces used excessive force in a raid upon protesters in Hawija at the end of April. That led to a series of retaliatory attacks by both insurgents and tribes, and the start of a new offensive by the Baathist Naqshibandi, which ran the Hawija demonstrations. At the same time, Al Qaeda in Iraq has been stepping up its operations since December 2012 with a bombing campaign across southern Iraq along with its traditional targets. The government has tried to respond, but the security forces’ counterproductive tactics of mass arrests and raids have not been able to stem the tide, and have probably made the situation worse. That pretty much sums up the new status quo in Iraq with militants picking up their attacks, while the government is incapable of stopping them.

All four organizations that track deaths in Iraq noted a decline from May to June, but the overall numbers were still very high. Iraq Body Count recorded 622 deaths in June compared to 883 in May. The United Nations reported 761 killed down from May’s 1,045. Agence France Presse (AFP) had 614 killed in May and 452 in June, while the Iraqi government claimed only 240 deaths in June, down from 681 the previous month. As usual, Baghdad was the most violent province with the U.N. having 258 killed and 692 wounded there in June. Salahaddin, Ninewa, Diyala, and Ninewa followed, all with triple digit casualty figures. Both the U.N. and Iraq Body Count have noted more than 3,000 deaths so far this year. The United Nations already has 3,711 deaths compared to 3,878 for all of 2012. Likewise, AFP has more people killed this year, 2,264, then the last seven months of 2012, 1,531. Iraq is already heading for the deadliest year since 2008 or 2009. That shows how the security situation has dramatically changed in the country from a bad terrorist problem, which existed from 2009-2012, to a growing insurgency very similar to the one faced in 2003-2005.

Deaths In Iraq 2011-2013

Month	Iraq Body Count	Iraqi Ministries	United Nations	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths	Agence France Presse
Jan. 2011	389	259	265	304	9.8	N/A
Feb.	252	167	267	228	8.1	N/A
Mar.	311	247	268	275	8.8	N/A
Apr.	289	211	279	259	8.6	N/A
May	381	177	319	292	9.4	N/A
Jun.	386	271	424	360	12.0	N/A
Jul.	308	259	381	316	10.1	N/A
Aug.	401	239	455	365	11.7	N/A
Sep.	397	185	405	329	10.9	N/A
Oct.	366	258	416	346	11.1	N/A
Nov.	279	187	264	243	8.1	N/A
Dec.	388	155	313	285	9.2	N/A
2011 Mo. Avg.	345	217	338	300	9.8	N/A
2011 Totals	4,147	2,615	4,056	-	-	-
Jan. 2012	524	151	500	391	12.6	N/A
Feb.	356	150	254	253	9.0	N/A
Mar.	377	112	294	261	8.4	N/A
Apr.	392	126	320	279	9.3	N/A
May	304	132	332	256	8.2	N/A
Jun.	529	131	401	353	11.7	282
Jul.	469	325	338	377	12.1	278
Aug.	422	164	292	292	9.4	278
Sep.	396	365	398	386	12.8	253
Oct.	290	144	189	207	6.6	136
Nov.	239	166	330	245	8.1	160
Dec.	275	208	230	237	7.6	144
2012 Mo. Avg.	381	181	323	294	9.6	218 (7 mo.)
2012 Totals	4,573	2,174	3,878	-	-	1,531 (7 mo.)
Jan. 2013	357	177	319	259	8.3	246
Feb.	358	136	418	242	8.6	220
Mar.	394	163	456	337	10.8	271
Apr.	561	208	712	493	16.4	461
May	883	681	1,045	869	28.0	614
Jun.	622	240	761	541	18.0	452
2013 Mo. Avg.	529	267	618	456	15.0	377
2013 Totals	3,175	1,605	3,711	-	-	2,264

The two main perpetrators of violence in the country are Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and the Baathist Naqshibandi. Signs of their increased activity are everywhere. Since December 2012, Al Qaeda has been carrying out an offensive targeting southern Iraq. The U.N. noted that Babil, Wasit, Basra, and Najaf all had double-digit casualty figures last month. On June 16 for instance, there were bombings in Najaf, Dhi Qar, Wasit, and Basra. On June 24, AQI also announced a new campaign in Anbar against the government. Officials have said that Al Qaeda is back to recruiting, and that there is a free flow of fighters moving across the Syrian border. As for the Naqshibandi, it called for a revolt against the government in January, and is said to have expanded operations outside of its traditional centers in Kirkuk ad Mosul. It is also believed to be coordinating their attacks with the Islamists. The two groups have different approaches. Al Qaeda in Iraq is part of the global jihadist movement, and connected to Al Qaeda central. It has been able to expand into neighboring Syria as well to join the fighting there as noted by its recent merger with the Nusra Front in a new organization called the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The Naqshibandi in comparison is a homegrown insurgent group led by Izzat al-Duri, Saddam Hussein’s former number 2, and head of the Baath Party. The Naqshibandi likes to claim that it does not target civilians, and only the Iraqi government and security forces. The two groups have a long history of cooperation, and that is leading to the current increase in insecurity in the country.

Scene of a bombing on June 10 in a market in Diyala, the deadliest day of the month (Retuers)

The increasing number of deadly days Iraq faces, and the inability of the security forces to prevent them highlights the new status quo. According to Iraq Body Count, there were only six days from February and March 2013 where 30 or more were killed. That jumped to seven in April, then ten in May, and seven again in June. That was highlighted by 61 deaths on June 10 across Diyala, Salahaddin, Ninewa, and Baghdad provinces. In response, the government has announced one offensive after another. There have been at least four in Anbar alone since mid-May. The problem is that the security forces simply raid an area and then depart, leaving the insurgents to move right back in. During these operations mass arrests are usually carried out where not only fighting aged men are taken away, but families as well. Many of these face abuse and torture in jails and prisons. These tactics can only turn people away from the authorities, and push some towards at least implicit if not open support for the militants.

Days With 30 Or More Fatalities Per Month In 2013, Iraq Body Count

January 2013 – 5 Total

1/23/13 – 46 killed

1/22/13 – 34 killed

1/17/13 – 31 killed

1/16/13 – 46 killed

1/3/13 – 34 killed

February 2013 – 3 Total

2/17/13 – 59 killed

2/8/13 – 38 killed

2/3/13 – 40 killed

March 2013 – 3 Total

3/29/13 – 30 killed

3/19/13 – 73 killed

3/14/13 – 34 killed

April 2013 – 7 Total

4/29/13 – 34 killed

4/24/13 – 32 killed

4/23/13 – 71 killed

4/18/13 – 30 killed

4/15/13 – 62 killed

4/6/13 – 34 killed

4/1/13 – 55 killed

May 2013 – 10 Total

5/30/13 – 34 killed

5/29/13 – 35 killed

5/28/13 – 45 killed

5/27/13 – 81 killed

5/21/13 – 46 killed

5/20/13 – 134 killed

5/18/13 – 33 killed

5/17/13 – 93 killed

5/15/13 – 40 killed

5/1/13 – 31 killed

June 2013 – 7 Total

6/27/13 34 killed

6/25/13 45 killed

6/24/13 46 killed

6/23/13 36 killed

6/18/13 39 killed

6/16/13 49 killed

6/10/13 61 killed

Iraq is heading for an unstable future. Sunnis have gone from protests to the increasing use of violence. Groups such as Al Qaeda in Iraq and Naqshibandi have been able to capitalize upon this growing anger. They are now increasing in numbers, which in turn has allowed them to carry out more and more attacks. The government on the other hand has not been able to stem the tide, and is making the situation worse with its heavy-handed techniques. This is all very similar to the 2003-2005 period where Sunnis felt disenfranchised by the new Iraq installed by the Americans. The U.S. forces also had no real counterinsurgency strategy in place, and their tactics only swelled the ranks of the insurgency as well. Like the Americans, until Baghdad changes course the security situation will only continue to deteriorate.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq Casualties: A Comparison,” 7/2/13

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 civilians killed, 13+ wounded in Kut,” 6/16/13

- “15 casualties in Najaf city,” 6/16/13

- “Police commander killed, 11+ wounded in Basra explosion,” 6/16/13

- “Salahal-Din governor escapes assassination attempt,” 6/26/13

Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, “Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqa al-Naqshbandia,” May 2013

Iraq Body Count

Al-Mada, “Army in Anbar is facing 200 complaints and “clan-trial” after stripped citizen and entry border towns,” 6/16/13

- “Al Qaeda announces the launch of the “New Battle” for western Anbar and police decide on comprehensive curfew,” 6/24/13

- “Sources: Fighters infiltrating Anbar and the army has only two helicopters to protect the border,” 6/24/13

National Iraqi News Agency, “Nineveh governor escapes an assassination attempt,” 6/26/13

Al-Qaisi, Mohammad, “Iraqi forces capture al-Qaeda cell in ‘Zero Hour’ operation,” Al Shorfa, 6/11/13

Al Rafidayn, “”Charge of the Knights of the Tigris” with the participation of 40 thousand fighters against al Qaeda in Diyala,” 6/12/13

Al-Rayy, “Governor of Babylon: al-Qaida still exists in the north of the province,” 6/8/13

- “Governor of Nineveh province survived an assassination attempt when a roadside bomb west of Mosul,” 6/1/13

- “Najat governor of Salahuddin an assassination attempt mortar shells falling on his home north of Tikrit,” 6/1/13

Al-Salhy, Suadad and Markey, Patrick, “Al Qaeda, Sunni insurgents exploit iraq’s sectarian woes,” Reuters, 6/11/13

Schreck, Adam, “Al-Qaida’s Iraq Head Refuses to Scrap Syria Merger,” Associated Press, 6/15/13

UNAMI, “UN Releases Casualty Figures for June,” 7/1/13