U.S. Army History Of Iraq War Vol 1 – Chapter 8 – Muddling Through August-October 2003

The title of Chapter 8 of the U.S. Army history of the Iraq War is “Muddling Through” which is exactly what America was doing during the summer and fall of 2003. Washington D.C. was pushing for a strategy to stabilize Iraq which wasn’t forthcoming. That left the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and the U.S. military to continue to go in different directions. The CPA was thinking of a 2-3 year transition to Iraqi sovereignty but was disappointed with the Iraqis it empowered. The army on the other hand wanted to withdraw as quickly as possible and turn over security to new Iraqi forces it was struggling to create. This added up to continued failures of the occupation of the country.

TVO VIDEO: Michael O'Hanlon: Iraq, After The War

U.S. Forces Drawing Down In Iraq

U.S. forces are scheduled to draw down to 50,000 by September 1, 2010 following President Obama’s withdrawal plan. It’s hardly been noticed, but U.S. troops are almost at that level already.

Since 2009 over 60,000 U.S. soldiers have been pulled out of Iraq. In January 2009 when Obama first took office, there were 142,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. After that, several thousand were withdrawn every couple months, going down to 140,000 in February, 137,000 in March, 134,000 in May, 130,000 in June, etc. According to the spokesman for U.S. forces in Iraq, there are currently 77,500 U.S. personnel in Iraq as of July 2010. 

U.S. Troop Strength In Iraq 2003-2010
May 2003 150,000 – Invasion force
October 2007 171,000 – Height of Surge
January 2009 142,000 – Beginning Obama administration
February 140,000
March 137,000
May 134,000
June 130,000
September 124,000
October 117,000
November 115,000
December 110,000
February 2010 98,000
April 95,000
May 92,000
June 90,000
July 77,500

Pulling out the troops isn’t the hardest part of the process, it’s moving or transferring all the equipment. 1.1 million items have already been shipped out of Iraq, with 1.7 million in 405 bases still leftover. Anything that’s not considered essential can be turned over to the Iraqis. Each base can donate between $25-$30 million to the locals. So far 500,000 items have been given to Iraqis as a result. The rest can be sold to Iraqi businessmen, who then sell it to the public. Some Iraqis also claim that the Iraqi military illegally sells off some of the equipment to make money on the side.

 U.S. soldiers tearing down a base

After September 1, the U.S. will only have seven brigades and special forces left in Iraq. The brigades will be called advise and assist units, and will focus upon training and supporting the Iraqis. One brigade will be in Baghdad, one will be in Anbar, and the other five will be split between northern and southern Iraq. Each will have between 3,000-5,000 troops, with the largest number along the disputed territories where the Americans are afraid a confrontation between the central government and Kurdistan could blow up. There will also be 4,500 special forces soldiers that will work on counter-terrorism operations.

By the end of 2011 all U.S. personnel are supposed to withdraw from Iraq. That process is already well underway. After that date, it’s likely that Baghdad will ask for some continued American support however, because it’s unlikely to have a military capable of defending the country from foreign threats. That means U.S. personnel will remain in the country for several more years, past the final drawdown period.

SOURCES

Fadel, Leila, “Vice President Biden in Iraq to visit troops, meet with officials,” Washington Post, 7/3/10

Garcia-Navarro, Lourdes, “At U.S. Bases In Iraq, The Fire Sale Is On,” All Things Considered, NPR, 6/8/10

Londono, Ernesto and Whitlock, Craig, “Despite political uncertainties in Iraq, U.S. sticking with drawdown plan,” Washington Post, 5/14/10

Sly, Liz, “Iraqis buying tons of U.S. military surplus items,” Los Angeles Times, 6/30/10

Troop Levels After The Surge

Source: New York Times

By July 2008 the surge will have ended. At its peak, there were 162,000 troops in Iraq in August 2007 after 30,000 additional ones in five brigades were sent in. Beginning in November 2007 the first unit began returning home. When the surge is over there will still be 142,000 American troops in Iraq. That’s 7,000 more than before. This is not the end of the influx of U.S. soldiers and Marines however. An additional 39,000 will be sent in October 2008. They will serve a twelve-month tour and leave in 2009. Troop levels have been a hotly contested issue within the military.
Since mid-2007 the top American commanders have debated how many soldiers and Marines to keep in Iraq after the surge. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Peter Pace, Army Chief of Staff General George Casey, and former CENTCOM commander Admiral William Fallon argued that joint deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan were straining the military, and that after the surge only 100,000 soldiers should be left in Iraq. General David Petraeus, commander in Iraq and soon to be CENTCOM commander, and his second in command General Ray Odierno, soon to become overall commander in Iraq, wanted to keep as many soldiers in Iraq as possible to maintain the security gains. President Bush threw his support behind his Iraqi commanders, and overrode the concerns of those at the Pentagon.

Large numbers of American troops in Iraq until at least the end of the Bush administration might not be a bad thing. In October 2008 Iraq is planning on carrying out provincial elections. Various groups may try to disrupt them, and the U.S. can help secure voting places. Another reason why the U.S. presence is needed is that the Sunni Sons of Iraq that are attributed for improving security have cut deals with the Americans, not the Iraqi government. Soldiers and Marines are needed to monitor these groups. Third, despite Iraqi offensives in Basra, Sadr City, Mosul and Maysan province, the Iraqi security forces are not capable of standing alone for a few more years without U.S. support. What happens with U.S. troop levels in the long term will be up to whoever becomes president of the United States on January 2009.

SOURCES:

Baldor, Lolita, “Army too stretched if Iraq buildup lasts,” Associated Press, 8/19/07
- “The U.S. And Iraq,” Associated Presss, 6/24/08

Baker, Peter, DeYoung, Karen, Ricks, Thomas, Tyson, Ann Scott, Warrick, Joby, and Wright, Robin, “Among Top Officials, ‘Surge’ Has Sparked Dissent, Infighting,” Washington Post, 9/9/07

Barnes, Julian, and Spiegel, Peter, “Top general to urge Iraq troop cut,” Los Angeles Times, 8/24/07

Burns, Robert, “What happens after ‘surge’ over is key,” Associated Press, 9/7/07

Oppel, Richard and Myers, Steven Lee, “Iraq Eases Curb for Former Officials of Hussein’s Party,” New York Times, 1/13/08

Reno, Jamie, “Troop Cuts: Which Unit Leaves First?” Newsweek, 9/14/07

Roberts, Kristin, “New Iraq deployments could maintain U.S. force level,” Reuters, 5/19/08

Spiegel, Peter and Barnes, Julian, “Top U.S. military brass in Iraq resist quick drawdown,” Los Angles Times, 12/6/07