REUTERS VIDEO: Iraq Marks Army Day

EURONEWS VIDEO: Iraq's Army Parades As Rocket Fire Hits Green Zone

RUSSIA TODAY VIDEO: Silent Spring: Press Gagged Over Iraqi Protests

Deadly Bombings On January 5, 2012 Unlikely To Change Iraq’s Status Quo

Just two weeks after a number of bombs wracked Baghdad, another series of mass casualty attacks occurred in Iraq targeting Shiites. This time explosives went off in two neighborhoods of Baghdad, and a small town in Dhi Qar province where pilgrims were walking towards Karbala for a religious ceremony leaving over 200 casualties. The press tied the attacks to the current political crisis within Iraq’s government, but they were probably planned out far before the current breakdown between political parties. There was also talk of Iraq descending back into civil war. While no one took responsibility yet, the bombings were likely the work of al Qaeda in Iraq. A look back at their operations showed that they carried out the exact same types of attacks in January 2011, and there was no retaliation by Shiites that could lead to a new civil conflict. The recent violence then, was just a continuation of the current status quo, not a change in Iraq’s security situation.

(BBC)

January 5, 2012’s violence specifically targeted Shiites. The attacks started at 7 a.m. when a bomb attached to a motorcycle went off in Sadr City next to a group of day laborers. Thirty-minutes later, when emergency workers arrived on the scene, two more bombs detonated, killing nine and wounding 35. About an hour later, two car bombs went off in the Kadhimiya district leaving 15 dead, and 50 wounded. Then, in the southern Iraqi town of Batha outside of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province, a suicide bomber slipped through security to enter a crowd of Shiite pilgrims walking towards Karbala. Two soldiers noticed the attacker, and tackled him to the ground when he set off his bomb vest. 48 ended up being killed, and another 81 were wounded. The pilgrims were heading towards the holy city of Karbala to commemorate Arbayeen, a ceremony to mark the death of the Imam Hussein Ibn Ali who died in a battle in the city in 680 A.D. Hussein was the grandson of the Prophet Mohammed. Early reports had a total of 72 deaths and 166 wounded. No one took responsibility, but they closely followed previous operations by Al Qaeda in Iraq, which has repeatedly targeted Shiites during their religious holidays and events.

Damage done in Sadr City, Baghdad (Reuters)

Kadhimiya, Baghdad (AP)

Another scene from Kadhimiya (AFP)

The western press and pundits linked the bombings to the on-going crisis between Iraq’s political parties. In late December 2011, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked for a no confidence vote against his deputy Saleh al-Mutlaq for neglecting his duties, and issued an arrest warrant for Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges. Both are leaders in the rival Iraqi National Movement. The problem with that analysis is that attacks like these take weeks of preparation, planning, intelligence, etc. These probably started before the current crisis even began.The bombings have also not had a noticeable affect upon the political dispute.

Another line of argument made in media reports was that the bombings could lead to a new civil war in Iraq. The Christian Science Monitor for example, ran the headline “Iraq bombings, political crisis raise concerns of renewed civil war.” The Washington Post quoted Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution and an analyst from the National Defense University warning about possible retaliation by Shiite militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army. Again, these arguments had problems because they missed previous attack patterns, and how Shiite politicians and groups have responded. For instance, Al Qaeda in Iraq conducted very similar operations a year ago. On January 20, 2011, 56 Shiite pilgrims were killed by car bombs in Karbala, followed by another 33 killed as they walked towards the holy city four days later. That was followed by a February 12 attack upon Shiites heading towards the Samarra mosque in Salahaddin, and 22 pilgrims executed in Nikhaib, Anbar on September 22. In fact, nearly every Shiite pilgrimage, holiday, or ceremony has been attacked for years now. Since the end of the civil war in 2008, the community has condemned the violence, but not struck back. There doesn’t appear to be any reason why they would suddenly change this time around.

Iraq is still a deadly country with daily occurrences of shootings and explosions. Security incidents actually dropped in the last year by nearly 40%. Total deaths were largely unchanged from 2010 to 2011 however, because of mass casualty attacks like those that occurred on December 22 and January 5. Al Qaeda in Iraq is not what it used to be, but it is still very capable of conducting these deadly operations nearly every month. Whether the United States kept their forces in Iraq or not, this situation would continue, since the Americans were not able to stop the previous bombings. Unfortunately, they have become the norm within the country, which means that they are unlikely to change the current status quo, and lead to a new civil war. The government and the Shiite community have not responded with anything but words to this violence, and this new round of explosions does not look to change that.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “SECURITY: Victims of al-Batha’a township, Thi-Qar Province, rise to 30 killed, 70 injured,” 1/5/12

Dagher, Sam and Ammar, Munaf, “Deadly Attacks Target Shiites in Iraq,” Wall Street Journal, 1/5/12

BBC, “Iraq: Bombings in Baghdad and Nasiriya kill scores,” 1/5/12

Latif, Nizar, “Civil war fears rise as 72 killed in Iraq bombings,” The National, 1/5/12

Memmott, Mark, “Baghdad Rocked Again By Deadly Bomb Blasts,” NPR, 1/5/12

Moran, Lee, “Bomb attacks on Shiites kill 72 as fears rise Iraq is imploding,” Daily Mail, 1/5/12

Morse, Dan, “Bombs targeting Shiites kill at least 72 in Iraq,” Washington Post, 1/5/12

Salman, Raheem and Zavis, Alexandra, “Scores killed in strong of bombings in Iraq,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/5/12

Schmidt, Michael, “Explosions Across Iraq Kill Dozens Amid Political Crisis,” New York Times, 1/5/12

Schreck, Adam, “Scores killed in Iraq bombings targeting Shiites,” Associated Press, 1/5/12

Zirulnick, Ariel, “Iraq bombings, political crisis raise concerns of renewed civil war,” Christian Science Monitor, 1/5/12

AFP VIDEO: Dozens Dead As Iraq Bombs Hit Shiites

AL JAZEERA VIDEO: Pilgrims Targeted In Sectarian Blasts In Iraq

Will Kirkuk Unravel Now That The American Forces Are Gone?

A major worry of some American analysts and soldiers is the situation in Kirkuk. Located in northern Iraq, it is the hub of Iraq’s disputed territories. For decades the city and surrounding area were contested, with Saddam Hussein trying to Arabize it by moving in people from southern and central Iraq, and forcing out Kurds and Turkmen. The Kurds responded with military offensives using their peshmerga to try to capture the city. Since 2003, those tensions have remained with all the major groups in the province claiming it. Many in the United States are afraid that this situation will deteriorate now that the U.S. military is not there. There are definitely on-going political disputes, and the future of the province remains unclear, but to think that the situation will unravel seems overblown.

(BBC)

All of Kirkuk’s major political parties constantly bicker with one another. On December 26, 2011 for instance, Kurdistan Regional President Massoud Barzani threatened to have a Kurdish administered referendum in Kirkuk if Article 140 were not implement. Article 140 is part of the Iraqi constitution, which says that people who were forced out by Saddam were to be returned, the Arabs he moved in would leave, there would then be a census, and finally a referendum would be held on the future of all the disputed territories in the country. It has never been implemented, which is why Barzani threatened to hold an election administered by Kurdistan. That came on the heels of a member of the Turkmen Front on the provincial council rejecting a referendum, and calling for Tamim governorate to become an autonomous region. The month before, the party also said an international investigation was needed to look into violence against their community, because the government was doing nothing about it. Turkmen, feeling caught between the more powerful Kurdish and Arabs forces have asked for the province to become its own region so that it would not be under the control of either Baghdad or Kurdistan. The Arab Group on the provincial council chimed in by saying that it would form its own committee to protect its community who it claimed was under attack as well. A parliamentarian from the Iraqi National Movement blamed the Kurds for these troubles. The fear of violence was expressed by the province’s police chief who said that the U.S. was providing essential logistics, training, and intelligence to the local security forces, and that would be missed. The head of the Kurdish security force the Asayesh also claimed that there was an increase in attacks since the U.S. began withdrawing. He went on to say that he did not believe that the security forces could handle the situation now that the Americans were gone. A sign of the growing tensions after the U.S. withdrawal was when the Americans tried turning over an air base to the Iraqis in mid-November. The Kurdish controlled police refused to allow the Iraqi Army in. At one point, both sides pulled guns on each other, and it took six hours to resolve the dispute. All of these statements were typical of the political rhetoric in the governorate. Each community claims to be a victim, and often implies that one of the others is responsible. The result is each one wants its own security forces, its own special committee, and its own solution to the province’s problems. None seem willing to work with each other as a result, which leads to the worries about how the governorate will ultimately work out.

Surprisingly, the political differences within Tamim have not led to much violence compared to the rest of the country. For most of 2011, the governorate was in the middle to bottom ranking in number of monthly deaths for instance. In January there were eight deaths, followed by 28 in February, 11 in March, 25 in April, going up to 49 in May, but then declining to 10 in June, 33 in July, 11 in August, 19 in September, finished off by 6 in October, 8 in November, and 21 in December. Those numbers placed Tamim in the bottom to middle of provinces with deaths ten out of twelve months. In December, it had the sixth most deaths out of ten provinces, in November it was eight out of eight, and in October it was sixth out of ten. The same thing could be said about attacks in the province. Like the rest of the country, there was an uptick in militant operations during the summer. Attacks went from 13 in January, to 33 in February, to 37 in March, before jumping to 50 in April, and 45 in May. Just like casualties, Tamim was also in the middle of the pact in terms of how many security incidents it had in relation to the rest of the country. Despite the accusations made by the province’s parties, all of the major communities in Tamim have faced violence, and almost all of it has been at the hands of insurgent groups. They are playing upon these tensions to try to divide and ignite larger conflicts within the province. Fortunately, these attempts have larger failed as politicians have only complained about the attacks, not incited their followers to take up arms against each other.

Tamim – Deaths, Attacks, And Ranking 2011

Month	No. of Deaths	Rank Out of Provinces With Monthly Deaths	No. of Attacks	Rank Out of Provinces With Monthly Attacks
Jan.	8	6 out of 12	13	8 out of 15
Feb.	28	4 out of 13	33	6 out of 14
Mar.	11	7 out of 14	37	6 out of 14
Apr.	25	5 out of 12	50	2 out of 16
May	49	4 out of 15	45	5 out of 13
Jun.	10	8 out of 10	31	8 out of 13
Jul.	33	6 out of 12	42	4 out of 15
Aug.	11	7 out of 13	55	3 out of 15
Sep.	9	7 out of 11	18	6 out of 13
Oct.	6	6 out of 10	28	6 out of 16
Nov.	8	8 out of 8	25	5 out of 12
Dec.	21	6 out of 10	40	3 out of 11

While Kirkuk remains a point of contention within Tamim province, and nationally, it does not appear that it will suddenly blow up any time soon. The arguments over the governorate have remained largely political, and that does not look to be changed. Despite the concerted efforts of insurgents, they have not been able to exploit this matter, and cause ethnosectarian violence. Rather, their attacks and the number of casualties they’ve been able to inflict there have been relatively low compared to the rest of Iraq. While American officials and analysts may fret about Kirkuk then, it is a matter that needs a negotiated settlement, not something that will require security operations or a U.S. military presence. The American period in Iraqi history is coming to an end, and it’s now up to the Iraqis to solve their problems as it always should have been. That doesn’t mean Kirkuk will be fixed any time soon, but the current status quo will hold for the foreseeable future despite worries to the contrary.

SOURCES

Ali, Mandy Samira, “Mixed reactions to invite the internationalization of the issue of targeting of Iraqi Turkmen,” Radio Free Iraq, 11/11/11

Arango, Tim, “Kirkuk Tensions Highlight Concerns Over U.S. Troop Exit,” At War, New York Times, 4/7/11

Aswat al-Iraq, “Arabs in Kirkuk to form popular committees for defense,” 12/23/11

- “No one can force Kirkuk to join Kurdistan, Barzani,” 12/26/11

- “Turkmen attacked amid official silence – Turkmen Front,” 10/17/11

Bartu, Peter, “Wrestling with the integrity of a nation: the disputed internal boundaries in Iraq,” International Affairs, November 2010

Gutman, Roy, “Kirkuk is a ‘land mine’ where all sides want U.S. to stay,” McClatchy Newspapers, 7/18/11

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Security in Iraq,” United Nations

Mahmoud, Nawzad, “US Withdrawal Deals ‘Heavy Blow’ to Kirkuk,” Rudaw, 12/15/11

McEvers, Kelly, “Tensions Feared As U.S. Leaves Disputed Iraqi City,” NPR, 12/14/11

National Iraqi News Agency, “ISC : initial agreement to form a political council in Kirkuk in the light of convergence between ISC and Kurdistan Alliance,” 12/30/11

- “Obeidi threatens to resort to “options in case injustice against Arab component in Kirkuk continued,” 1/1/12

Samad, Dityar, “Turkmen call for Kirkuk autonomy,” AK News, 12/22/11

Zangana, Jamshid, “Kirkuk security deteriorating with U.S. withdrawal,” AK News, 12/12/11