Iraq Improves On State Department’s Annual Trafficking Report

Since 2003 Iraq has become a source and destination for a thriving sex trade and forced labor market. The State Department has tried to document some of this activity in its annual “Trafficking In Persons Report,” which was just released in June. Iraq has made some effort to address this growing problem, apparently enough to satisfy the U.S. government, which gave it a better rank this year.

The State Department surveys countries around the world and how they deal with human trafficking. Those nations are then broken down into three tiers. Tier 1 are governments that acknowledge they have a problem, have made an effort to solve it each year, and meets America’s minimum standards. Tier 2 are nations that do not fully comply with the State Department’s standards, but are making an effort to do so. Tier 2 Watch List are countries that don’t fully comply, are making an effort, but where trafficking is either increasing or the state has failed to provide evidence that it is working harder at it. Tier 3 are those that don’t follow U.S. standards, and are not making an effort to do so. From 2009-2012 Iraq was Tier 2 Watch List, but in 2013 it moved up to Tier 2. The State Department has always said that Iraq has tried to address this issue, but not done enough. Now it feels that Baghdad has improved. 2012 was the first time the authorities said that sex trafficking was a problem, and it passed an anti-trafficking law, and set up an anti-trafficking department in the Interior Ministry as a result. In January 2013, the Health Ministry ordered each province to set up a victim support units for trafficking victims. A Central Committee to Combat Trafficking in Persons was put together, and it has started to work with international organizations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) on the issue as well. Still, there is a huge gap between what’s on paper and actual implementation. For instance, Baghdad has not investigated any officials implicated in trafficking. It hasn’t tried to identify or help victims of forced labor or sex trafficking, and the number of actual investigations is minimal. In 2012, there were only 7 investigation of sex trafficking, five for child begging rings, and one for domestic servitude. There were five prosecutions of child begging rings as well. While the government sent some trafficking victims to NGOs, it didn’t fund or aid those groups, and prohibited them from running shelters for victims. In Kurdistan, there was some progress as well as the regional authorities shut down businesses and labor brokers that were involved in forced labor, but no one was prosecuted. The State Department’s rankings were not based upon how large a problem trafficking was in each country, but rather how much the government was trying to address it. 2012-2013 was the first year that Iraq showed any kind of serious movement on this front, which was why it went from Tier 2 Watch List to Tier 2.

Gangs have organized children into begging rings (Dananer Economic News Agency)

If Iraq were judged by the levels of its illegal activities it would not have gotten such a positive score. Men, women, and children are shipped in and out of the country for the sex trade and forced labor. People from Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia have all gone in and out of Iraq for these criminal enterprises. In Tikrit, prostitution rings have been reported. Sex trafficking networks are run through Baghdad, Kirkuk, and into Syria. Gangs involved in prostitution exist in Irbil, Dohuk, and Sulaymaniya. These women are recruited through a number of means. NGOs have reported that organized crime rings rape women on film, and use that to blackmail them into the sex trade. They also bail women out of jail, and then force them to pay off their debt. In Tamim and Salahaddin provinces, the security forces have been accused of kidnapping women, and forcing them into prostitution. Some girls and women are pressured into the trade to support their families who live in poverty. Temporary marriages are another tool used where families receive a dowry, and in return their daughters are put into the sex industry. Syrian refugees in Kurdistan have also been forced into the business. Women from Iran, China, and the Philippines have been brought to Iraq for prostitution as well. In the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) gangs pay off officials to ignore trafficking cases. Forced labor is no less of a problem. People from Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Georgia, Jordan, Ethiopia, and Uganda have all been forced into jobs such as construction, security, cleaners, handymen, and domestic workers in Iraq. Some are told they will be going to Jordan or the Gulf States, but end up in Iraq instead where their passports are taken, and they are forced to work. Some workers know they are heading to Iraq, but their conditions and terms are not what they were originally told. For these reasons Nepal bans its workers from going to Iraq. Finally there are gangs that force children into begging rings. The extent of trafficking in Iraq is as bad as ever despite the new measures by the government. More importantly much of the sex trade is run by mafias, which are connected to government officials and the security forces, and therefore will never be prosecuted for their crimes. Forced labor is a product of Iraq’s growing economy, and the fact that many Iraqis feel that they are better than some of the manual labor needed throughout the country. Companies therefore rely upon foreign workers, and have no problem if they are free or forced into the jobs.

Iraq might have gotten a better ranking this year by the State Department, but that doesn’t mean that the country is combating trafficking more effectively. Rather the new laws and committees are unlikely to have any real affect upon these criminal activities. As long as gangs have money to pay off officials they can go about their business largely untouched. Forced labor on the other hand, is not considered a real issue by the authorities. That means every now and then a ring might be broken up, and the government can announce a new piece of legislation has been passed, but the sex trade and forced labor will continue on as Iraq plays a crucial role in the movement of people throughout the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia.

SOURCES

United States Department of State, “Trafficking In Persons Report,” June 2013

REUTERS VIDEO: Dozens Killed In Wave Of Iraqi Attacks

The Problem Of Institutionalized Corruption In Iraq

Transparency International is a global organization committed to fighting corruption. In April 2013 it released a report looking at the problem in Iraq, and its attempt to deal with it. Like many that have researched the issue, Transparency International did not find a pretty picture. It found that corruption wasn’t just at the bottom where bribes for example are commonplace amongst the police and bureaucrats. The real theft came at the top where all the political parties were involved in skimming money off of contracts, the oil industry, and the budget. It’s for that reason that Baghdad shows no real interest in dealing with the matter even though there are plenty of offices, laws, and agreements to prevent it from happening. It’s this institutionalization of corruption that will continuously plague the country, and prevent it from reaching its huge potential.

(Iraq Business News)

Every group that looks at corruption in Iraq finds a bleak situation. Corruption was widespread under Saddam Hussein, especially when sanctions cut off much of the country’s money. Almost everyone believes that it got worse after his overthrow in 2003. Transparency International in its annual report on corruption has consistently ranked Iraq one of the worst in the world. In 2012 for instance, it was 169 out of 175 countries with a score of 18 out of 100. The World Bank put Iraq at the bottom 10 percentile of nations trying to control corruption in 2011. The 2010 Global Corruption Barometer found that 77% of Iraqis surveyed believed that corruption had gotten worse in the previous three years with only 4% saying it had decreased. A poll conducted the next year by the World Bank found that 62% of companies said that corruption was a major obstacle to doing business in Iraq. This has all cost the nation tremendously. There’s no way to know exactly how much it has lost, because of theft, fraud, and embezzlement, but there have been several estimates. Judge Radhi Hamza Radhi, the former head of Iraq’s main anti-corruption agency the Integrity Commission said that from 2003-2008 $18 billion was lost. A study funded by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank estimated that $65 billion was smuggled out of the country from 2001-2010. In 2013, the Board of Supreme Audit, which is in charge of checking Baghdad’s finances, believed that $40 billion in illicit funds left the country each year. Those are staggering figures for a country that is trying to pull itself out of wars and sanctions. Losing that much money is simply robbing the future from the nation, and severely handicapping its development.

Corruption is an everyday occurrence in Iraq. One of the most common forms it takes is bribes. According to the Integrity Commission, the police, customs, and the judiciary asked for bribes the most. A poll by Transparency International conducted in 2011 found that 64% of Iraqis said they paid a bribe to the police. That was the worst institution in the survey. Paying money is also expected to get jobs in the police and army as well. This also has an affect upon the economy. The World Bank’s enterprise survey reported that bribes were asked for 33.8% of times in business transactions with the government. This rate varied across the country with some of the province at the high-end being Baghdad, 70%, Karbala, 89%, and Basra at the top at 100%. It was also different based upon the size of the company. For instance, 64% of medium sized firms said they were expected to pay up to get a government contract. At the bottom end, the citizenry to get better services or speed up the bureaucracy usually pays some money. The fact that this goes all the way up to winning tenders with the authorities shows the extent to which corruption is part of the governance of the country. Officials expect kickbacks in most transactions whether it is to get papers filed or to build a power plant. It is because this problem extends all the way to the top that it is such a dilemma for state building.

One cause of this rampant corruption is nepotism and clientelism. Every Iraqi government since 2005 has been a national unity one meaning that every party that wins a seat in parliament gets its own ministry and office. These officials then fill the government with their family members, followers, and tribesmen. In 2012, the Bertelsmann Transformation Index reported that this kind of clientelism led to massive hiring of unqualified people into the public sector. For example, in 2011 the Integrity Commission stated that there were around 20,000 government workers with fake degrees. The Justice Ministry thought the problem was even worse at 50,000 employees. This extends to politicians themselves. In the 2009 provincial elections, 352 candidates had fake credentials and degrees, and 102 candidates in the 2010 parliamentary vote had them as well. Government offices continuously talk about dismissing all these people, but it either never happens or the ones who replace them are using fake papers as well. Without educated people and technocrats Baghdad can’t hope to carry out the planning and execution of the projects needed to reconstruct the country. What’s more important is maintaining the patronage networks the parties use to stay in power.

This also points to the high-level corruption, which is at the root of the problem in Iraq. In 2009 the Integrity Commission issued 152 arrest warrants for director generals or above, including eight ministers. Former Integrity Commission head Judge Rahim al-Ogaili was forced to resign in September 2011 after he discovered a network of shell companies stealing government funds, which was run by high level officials including some in Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s office. Ogaili went on to say that the Baghdad had no interest in fighting corruption, and just wanted to protect itself from prosecution. In late 2012, the President of the Board of Supreme Audit told the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction that high-level theft and fraud had become institutionalized. It’s because all of the country’s political parties and their ministries are involved in the systematic theft of government funds that Iraq consistently ranks as one of the most corrupt in the world. It’s one thing for a policeman to take a bribe to look the other way and ignore a crime. It’s quite another for ministers to steal billions, and then have his party block him from going to court for his offense. It’s because those at the top are acting criminally that all those below them are following suit. It’s also the reason why the nation has done nothing about the problem. If all the parties are involved there’s no reason to go after offenders, because it would implicate them all.

This theft affects every aspect of the government. The budget for instance, is non-transparent. The Open Budget Survey gave Iraq a score of 4 out of 100 in 2012, which means hardly any information is made public. That means the people can’t hold officials accountable for what they do with the funds, and they in turn can do what they like without any scrutiny. Oil is Iraq’s most important industry, and brings in billions each month, which offers a huge source of money to steal. Oil smuggling for instance, is still going on from everything from local pipeline tapping to large-scale fraud. This all goes to financing political parties, individual politicians, gangs, and insurgents. Oil smuggling is estimated to have cost $7 billion from 2005-2008. In 2013, a strike amongst oil workers in Basra complained that their management was involved in stealing oil. The government has also failed to install meters upon the entire industry, probably because it would interfere with their nefarious activities. Finally, contracts with the security ministries have repeatedly been found to include kickbacks and other illegal activities. In 2008, former Integrity Commission head Judge Radhi claimed that $4 billion was lost in corruption in the Defense Ministry and $2 billion in the Interior. The fake bomb detectors are a perfect example. Jim McCormick who made and sold the devices was recently convicted of fraud in England, yet Prime Minister Maliki claimed that Iraq had taken care of the issue a long time ago, and that some of the detectors actually worked. To admit to wrongdoing would be to admit that the entire deal was corrupt from the beginning, and included the premier’s office. Instead, the fake devices are still being used throughout Iraq. At the end of 2012, an Iraqi delegation went to Russia to finalize an arms deal for the Defense Ministry, which involved huge kickbacks as high as $500 million allegedly going to the Defense Minister Sadound Dulaimi, former government spokesman Ali Dabbagh, the prime minister’s media adviser Ali Musawi, and various generals and others officers in the Iraqi military. It’s this illegality at the top that makes the situation in Iraq so bad. Iraqi officials seem to think that it is their right to steal the country’s resources and money at every turn. Governance is taking a backseat to greed, negatively affecting daily life and the future.

If the government wanted to it has the tools and resources to combat corruption. In 2007 it adopted the United Nations’ Convention Against Corruption. It went on to develop an anti-corruption strategy with the help of the international organization. It repealed Article 136b of the Criminal Code that allowed ministers to stop investigations and protect their officials. Baghdad has signed onto the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which covers the oil and natural gas fields. It has the judiciary, parliament’s integrity committee, the Integrity Commission and Inspector Generals in each ministry and office to look into corruption, the Board of Supreme Audit to go through public finances, and the Anti-Corruption Committee to coordinate all this work. The problem is there is no will to implement these laws and initiatives or to support these various offices. Instead the heads of the Integrity Commission have routinely been dismissed, and the prime minister attempted to disband the Inspector Generals. The courts are supposed to be independent, but have continuously come under pressure from the government and other forces, which prevents it from convicting anyone but the lowliest officials of corruption. That doesn’t stop Maliki from talking about taking up the fight against this issue every year, but those are just empty words. His State of Law list and all the others are up to their necks in robbing the government till, and therefore has no reason to push the matter. Instead he has stood in the way of investigations, and helped get rid of several Integrity Commission heads.

In its overview of corruption Transparency International pointed out why it is such a pressing issue in Iraq, and why it will not be solved. Everyone from the clerk at a government office to top ministers are stealing billions of dollars each year. Most government contracts involve bribes and kickbacks, while oil is being smuggled and funds stolen. The agencies tasked with fighting this problem have been made ineffective by the leadership who are partaking in this theft. The result is that Iraq is one of the most corrupt countries in the world with no end in sight. As long as everyone in the government feels that they can take a piece of the pie there is no incentive to stop the practice, and it becomes institutionalized as part of running the country.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Ministries of Defense, Trade, Health, Municipalities, electricity – the most corrupt ministries in Iraq, Parliament official says,” 7/19/11

Dagher, Sam, “Iraqi Report on Corruption Cites Prosecutors’ Barriers,” New York Times, 5/6/09

Al-Rafiydan, Al-Zaman, “Iraqi Integrity Authority Identifies $49M In Corruption, But Recoups Only A Fraction,” MEMRI Blog, 6/15/11

Ramzi, Kholoud, “iraq gets tough on fake qualifications, up to 50,000 jobs at risk,” Niqash, 4/18/11

Shafaq News, “Integrity Commission announces names of wanted in the Russian arms deal investigation,” 11/29/12

Sowell, Kirk, “Inside Iraqi Politics No. 50,” 11/21/12

Transparency International, “Iraq: overview of corruption and anti-corruption,” April 2013

Iraq Improves On Failed State List, But Still Problems With Scoring

For the last several years Iraq has been in the top ten in the Fund for Peace’s Failed States List. The country has made slight improvements however, and in 2013 was ranked number 11. The Fund for Peace uses a program to go through reports about each country in the world throughout the year, and this software then formulates scores for each nation. Iraq obviously has many problems, but there are some issues with its ranking.

In the 2013 Failed States list Iraq did a little better going from number nine to eleven. In 2012 Iraq had a score of 104.3, while this year that went down to 103.9. These numbers come from twelve indictors that the Fund for Peace uses. Demographic pressures includes diseases, natural disasters, population growth, food security, and Iraq got an 8.3 out of 10. On refugees and internally displaced persons it received an 8.8. Group grievances covers ethnic and sectarian violence on which Iraq received a 10.0 out of 10. Iraq got an 8.3 on human flight, which covers professionals and intellectuals leaving the country. On uneven economic development the country scored an 8.4, followed by a 7.3 on poverty and economic decline, 8.6 on delegitimization of the state, 7.6 on public services, 8.6 on human rights and rule of law, 10.0 on the security forces, 9.6 on factionalized elites, and 8.5 on external intervention. On half of those indicators, demographic pressures, refugees, group grievances, delegitimization of the state, human rights and rule of law, security apparatus, Iraq received a worst score in 2013 than 2012, factionalized elites stayed the same, while the remaining five, human flight, uneven economic development, poverty and economic decline, public services, and external intervention, improved. 

Iraq’s Ranking On Failed States List 2005-2013

	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
Demographic Pressures	8.3	8.0	8.3	8.5	8.7	9.0	9.0	8.9	8.0
Refugees	8.8	8.5	9.0	8.7	8.9	9.0	9.0	8.3	9.4
Group Grievances	10.0	9.7	9.0	9.3	9.7	9.8	10.0	9.8	8.3
Human Flight	8.3	8.6	8.9	9.3	9.1	9.3	9.5	9.1	6.3
Uneven Economic Development	8.4	8.7	9.0	8.8	8.6	8.5	8.5	8.7	8.7
Poverty and Economic Decline	7.3	7.7	7.0	7.6	7.6	7.8	8.0	8.2	8.2
Delegitimization of the State	8.6	8.4	8.6	9.0	9.0	9.4	9.4	8.5	8.8
Public Services	7.6	7.8	8.0	8.4	8.4	8.5	8.5	8.3	8.9
Human Rights and Rule of Law	8.6	8.3	8.6	9.1	9.3	9.6	9.7	9.7	8.2
Security Apparatus	10.0	9.9	9.5	9.5	9.7	9.9	10.0	9.8	8.4
Factionalized Elite	9.6	9.6	9.6	9.6	9.6	9.8	9.8	9.7	10.0
External Intervention	8.5	9.0	9.3	9.5	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0

The Fund for Peace did a better job scoring Iraq this year, but there were still some questions. In 2012, there were several problems including with demographic pressures, group grievances, and economic decline. This year the Fund seemed to be slightly more accurate. Poverty and economic decline got a score of 7.3 in 2013, down from 7.7. That’s likely because of the growing Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Per capita GDP for instance went from $1,300 in 2004 to $6,400 in 2012. Legitimacy of the state increased from 8.4 to 8.6 probably because of the protest movement in Sunni provinces. There were still some issues however. Demographic pressures went up from 8.0 to 8.3. That covers natural disasters, disease, environment, food and water security, population growth, and mortality. According to the United Nations malnutrition had slight progress, while the others had no noticeable changes. Likewise refugees received a worst score of 8.8 up from 8.5. That was despite the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reporting steady increases in refugee and displaced persons returns since 2010. The most glaring scores however were for group grievances and security apparatus that went from 9.7 to 10.0 and 9.9 to 10.0 respectively. Obviously the insurgency is taking off again, but 10.0 was the score Iraq received when it was still in a civil war in 2007. Yes, violence is up, but it’s nowhere near the level it was at during the sectarian conflict when several thousands were ending up dead each month, the government largely shut down, and daily life was completely disrupted. The Fund for Peace provides no specific data on each individual state, and therefore there was no way to check what sources or information it used for Iraq. Given its past and present problems there’s definitely room to question how they come up with their scores.

Overall, the Failed States List can be a useful tool to identify the most troubled countries around the world, and Iraq is definitely one of those, but its score could be contested. Iraq saw steady improvement with its security situation after the civil war ended in 2008, which opened the door to a dramatic increase in foreign investment and business. This year its seen a reversal with the rebirth of the insurgency. Still from 2008 to 2013 Iraq’s overall score only improved by +6.6 points. The positive changes in the country should have brought about a greater change, which brings up the point about what sources the Fund is using for its rankings. Obviously, any large study such as this will have issues, and Iraq is a perfect example. That means where exactly each country ranks doesn’t really matter. Rather what countries are at the bottom is what the Fund for Peace’s work is good for.

SOURCES

Amlot, Robin, “IMF updates on Iraq economy,” CPI Financial, 5/22/13

Foreign Policy and The Fund For Peace, “Failed States 2013,” Foreign Policy

UNICEF, “The Situation of Children and Women in Iraq,” December 2012

UNHCR Iraq Operation, “Monthly Statistical Update on Return – March 2013,” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, May 2013

Interview On Middle East Week Podcast

Listen to my interview on Middle East Week Podcast about the deteriorating security situation, economic and political problems, and the future of Iraq.

Iraq’s Kurdish President Delays Elections To Stay In Office Two More Years

In a move that surprised some, but not others, the Kurdish parliament recently decided to postpone presidential elections in the region, and gave President Massoud Barzani two more years in office. The official reason was that the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) draft constitution needed to be amended. Current Kurdish law states that the president can only serve two terms, and Barzani’s eight years are now up. The new constitution however, would allow him to run for office two more times. Barzani does not want to step down, and with the support of the other ruling party the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) he simply manipulated the system to stay in power.

Pres. Barzani has postponed voting for the executive until he finds a way he can run again (Today’s Zaman)

On June 30, the KRG legislature announced that the region’s presidential election would be postponed for two years. The ruling parties the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) already made the decision back on June 16, so this was simply the act to make it official. This led to protests by the opposition parties, the throwing of water bottles, and a fistfight between a member of the Change List and a PUK lawmaker. The police were called and took away a Change List parliamentarian. Another Change List politician said that the move violated the rules of parliament, and set the stage for a Barzani dictatorship. The presidential vote was originally scheduled for September 21, and coincided with balloting for the Kurdish parliament as well. The official reason for the delay according to a member of the KDP was that the region’s draft constitution needed to be amended. In mid-June, Barzani sent the document to the Kurdish parliament for changes after he claimed that only a referendum could decide its future. In May for instance, Barzani told a crowd of supporters that parliament didn’t have the power to change the constitution. The intention of the ruling parties is clear. They want to keep Barzani in office, and will do whatever it takes to accomplish this. Kurdistan likes to call itself “The Other Iraq,” but these actions show how politically it is no different from Baghdad. Barzani couldn’t find a way to legally run for a third term before the September elections, so he simply postponed them, so he can stay in office two more years. During that time the KDP and PUK will push through the constitution, which the opposition doesn’t have the seats to really change. That will allow Barzani the chance for two more times in office. The president is still widely popular, and maintains a huge network of tribal connections and patronage, which will ensure that he gets re-elected. All he needs to do now is wait until he has the means to do it.

The Barzani clan has been in a leadership role in Kurdistan for decades now. Massoud Barzani has no intention of giving up that position. He has already been in office for the eight years that Kurdish law allows, but that will not stop him. He’s postponed voting for the executive until a new constitution can be passed, or he finds another way to amend the law to allow him to stay in office until he’s ready to step down. At that time he can pass off the presidency to another member of his family. Clans and tribes play a large role in Iraqi politics, and that might be even more so in the KRG. That means there might be the facade of rule of law, but the powerful have found ways to ignore and manipulate it to their needs, and Barzani’s current machinations are a perfect example.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq Kurds delay presidential polls over row,” 6/30/13

Kurdistan Tribune, “Fights inside Kurd parliament over bid to extend Barzani’s presidency,” 6/30/13

Mahmoud, Nawzad, “Kurdistan’s Two Ruling Parties Give Conflicting Views on Regions Constitution,” Rudaw, 6/4/13

National Iraqi News Agency, “Fistfight between members of Talabani’s party and/change movement/in Kurdistan Parliament,” 6/30/13

Radio Nawa, “Deputy for change: to extend the mandate of Barzani as the proclamation of the dictatorship in Kurdistan,” 6/30/13

Rudaw, “Debate over Kurdistan Region Constitution Goes to Parliament,” 6/13/13

- “Kurdistan Region’s Ruling Parties Agree on Delaying Presidential Poll,” 6/16/13

Zebari, Abdel Hamid, “Barzani Seeks Compromise On Draft Constitution,” Al-Monitor, 6/19/13

Security Operations Fail To Stop Violence In Anbar As Al Qaeda In Iraq Goes On The Offensive

For the last several weeks the Iraqi security forces (ISF) have carried out a number of operations in Anbar, especially in the western desert and along the Euphrates River. This hasn’t seemed to stop the violence however. In fact, as a sign of defiance Al Qaeda in Iraq recently announced an offensive of its own in the province. The situation has gotten so bad that local officials have told the press that the military and police have lost control of the border area, and that fighters are going back and forth between Syria and Iraq at will. This is just the latest example of the ineffectiveness of the army and police in combating the country’s insurgency.

(Institute for the Study of War)

The Iraqi security forces have announced operation after operation in Anbar to no apparent affect (Al-Mada)

In response to the country’s deteriorating security situation, the government has launched one security crackdown after another in Anbar. On May 16, the government announced The Ghost that was aimed at clearing out Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) camps in the desert region of the governorate. On May 28, the Defense Ministry said it was beginning another operation against AQI across Anbar, Ninewa, Diyala, Salahaddin, Babil, and Baghdad. At the beginning of June, the government sent the army to the Syrian and Jordanian border in Anbar. This was in preparation for the delayed elections that were taking place on June 20. Those forces stayed after the vote, and began another strike under the Anbar Operations Command in the Rawa district by the Syrian border after a clash with militants that killed two soldiers. This covered the Rawa area, the western Sahara, and the town of Nukhayb. None of these operations appeared effective, and were widely criticized by Anbaris. The deputy head of the provincial council Sadoun Abdi Shalan said that the security forces were only out in the field for 1-2 days, then they would withdraw, and militants would move right back in. An anonymous official told Al-Mada that the ISF had failed at stopping infiltrations across the Syrian border, and that they were completely unequipped for the task. The source claimed that the Iraqi army only had two helicopters to monitor the entire border area, and only one was active at a time. This came on top of the complaints about arbitrary arrests, closing down traffic between cities, and the destruction of property. These tactics have proven to be failures. They were exactly the same type used by the United States before the 2007 Surge, and everyone knows how that turned out. Raiding without holding ground can only temporarily disrupt insurgents, and the abuses that come along with the operations only create resentment amongst the populace against the security forces and government. 

There have been complaints about arbitrary arrests by the security forces in Anbar (Al-Mada)

To show how ineffective the ISF were Al Qaeda not only maintained its attacks, but also announced an offensive of its own. On June 24, AQI let it be known that it was launching a new campaign in Anbar that included the cities of Hit, Rawa, and Qaim. The next day, the deputy council head Shalan told New Sabah that there was a large increase in violence with attacks upon both civilians and the security forces. In mid-June for instance, a military barracks outside of Rawa was attacked for several hours, which only ended after helicopters showed up. Back in May, Al Qaeda also told the press that it was talking to tribal leaders in the province to win them to their side. AQI has proven to be not only resilient, but also capable of a resurgence. Last year, the group was only able to carry out a high level of operations for a few months, and then had to regroup and resupply. Now it has been carrying out a wave of bombings for the last seven months starting in December 2012. There are several factors that help explain this. First, it is benefiting from the civil war next door in Syria, which allows it to freely move across the border to gain equipment, fighters, and funds. Second, it has capitalized upon the government’s huge mistake to attack the demonstrators in Hawija, which pushed large sections of the protest movement and tribes towards violence to express their frustration. The Islamists have exploited these feelings of alienation to grow its franchise as shown in its attacks in Anbar.

Anbar was the birthplace of the insurgency in Iraq, and now it is having a rebirth. Al Qaeda in Iraq is in the lead in this resurrection. The government’s security campaigns have been unable to curtail the militants. Ironically, the security forces are actually making the situation worse with their heavy-handed tactics. That’s leading Anbar back to exactly where it was in 2003-2004 with increasing violence, tribes deciding on whether they want to support militants or not, and spreading instability. There appears to be no reversing this situation for now, which means Anbar will only slip further into chaos for the time being.

SOURCES

AIN, “IA continues operations in Anbar to chase Qaeda elements,” 6/14/13

- “Military operation to track down gunmen launched in Anbar,” 6/22/13

Al-Mada, “Al Qaeda announces the launch of the “New Battle” for western Anbar and police decide on comprehensive curfew,” 6/24/13

- “Sources: Fighters infiltrating Anbar and the army has only two helicopters to protect the border,” 6/24/13

Al Nuaimi, Ahmed, “”Anbar” demanding perpetuation of military operations in desert,” New Sabah, 6/25/13

Al-Qaisi, Mohammed, “Iraqi forces launch operation in response to recent attacks,” Al-Shorfa, 5/31/13

Sadah, Ali Abel, “Iraq Moves Troops To Syrian Border,” Al-Monitor, 6/18/13

- “Al-Qaeda-Iraq Statement A Sign Of Rising Sectarian Violence,” Al-Monitor, 5/31/13

Al-Shamar, Salah, “Iraq masses troops on border with Syria to guard elections in two provinces,” Azzaman, 6/16/13