Security In Iraq Looked Much Worse In March 2014 Compared To February

 

The groups that tracked Iraqi deaths had a bit of a divergence in March 2014. Iraq Body Count and the Iraqi government had casualties going up, while Agence France Presse saw a large drop. The United Nations was roughly the same as the previous months of the year. Musings On Iraq’s own count saw a large increase to the highest level so far in 2014. Still the majority opinion was that the security situation was getting worse in Iraq.

The number of fatalities went in different directions in March depending upon which group was consulted. Iraq Body Count had 1,009 killed up from 930 in February. The Iraqi government said 1,004 people died in March compared to 790 the previous month. Since September 2012 the government ministries have been releasing much more realistic figures after keeping them extremely low compared to other organizations. The United Nations counted 748 killed. That included 592 deaths in Iraq’s 17 provinces and 156 from Anbar’s Health Directorate. In January the U.N. had 733 and 703 in February, but those did not include Anbar. Still their numbers have stayed relatively stable for 2014. Agence France Presse was the anomaly from the others as it went from 991 in January to 747 in February to 512 in March. Finally, Musings On Iraq’s own statistics had 1,607 killed in March, the highest amount so far this year. One major cause for deaths to go up and down are the number of major bombings. Musings On Iraq counted the same number of car and suicide bombers 73 and 43 respectively in February and March, so that was not the case this time. Rather the reason why there was an increase in casualties was a sharp jump in violence in Anbar and Salahaddin. The news agencies and the Iraqi press reported 184 killed in Anbar in February compared to 343 in March. 122 of the latter were from government shelling. Likewise in Salahaddin deaths went from 272 in February to 368 in March. Since the start of the year those two provinces have become some of the most insecure in the country.

Deaths In Iraq 2003-2013

Month/Year	Iraq Body Count	Avg. Daily Deaths	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Daily Deaths	United Nations	Avg. Daily Deaths	Agence France Presse	Avg. Daily Deaths	Musings On Iraq	Avg. Daily Deaths
2003	4,675	19.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2004	11,608	31.8l	11,313	30.99	-	-	-	-	-	-
2005	16,186	44.2	15,817	43.3	-	-	-	-	-	-
2006	29,144	79.8	32,622	89.3	34,452	94.3	-	-	-	-
2007	25,519	69.9	19,155	52.4	-	-	-	-	-	-
2008	9,839	26.9	9,046	24.7	11,536	31.6	-	-	-	-
2009	5,132	14.0	3,682	10.0	4,611	12.6	-	-	-	-
2010	4,109	11.2	3,949	10.8	4,855	13.3	-	-	-	-
2011	4,147	11.3	2,781	7.6	4,150	11.3	-	-	-	-
2012	4,573	12.5	2,174	5.9	3,878	10.6	1,531 (7 mo.)	7.1	-	-
Jan. 2013	357	11.5	177	5.7	319	10.2	246	7.9	-	-
Feb.	360	12.7	136	4.8	418	14.9	220	7.8	-	-
Mar.	403	13.0	163	5.2	456	14.7	271	8.7	-	-
Apr.	545	18.1	208	6.9	712	23.7	461	15.3	-	-
May	888	28.6	681	21.9	1,045	33.7	614	19.8	-	-
Jun.	659	21.9	240	8.0	761	25.3	452	15.0	-	-
Jul.	1,145	36.9	989	31.9	1,057	34.0	875	28.2	-	-
Aug.	1,012	32.6	365	11.7	804	25.9	693	22.3	-	-
Sep.	1,221	40.7	971	32.3	979	32.6	880	29.3	-	-
Oct.	1,095	35.3	964	31.0	979	31.5	743	23.9	-	-
Nov.	903	30.1	948/1,121	31.6/ 37.3	659	21.9	693	23.1	-	-
Dec.	983	31.7	1,001	32.2	759	24.4	668	21.5	-	-
2013 Totals	9,571	25.9	6,843/ 7,016	18.7/ 19.2	8,948	24.5	6,818	18.6	-	-
Jan. 2014	1,076	34.7	1,013	32.6	733*	23.6	991	31.9	1,495	48.2
Feb.	930	33.2	790	28.2	703*	25.1	747	26.5	1,296	46.2
Mar.	1,009	32.5	1,004	32.3	748	24.1	512	16.5	1,607	51.8

* Figures do not include Anbar

The overall picture is that the security situation in Iraq is deteriorating. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) is carrying out open military parades in Anbar and Baghdad provinces. The Naqshibandi, Ansar al-Sunna, the Islamic Army, the 1920 Revolution Brigades, Hamas Iraq, and some tribes are all carrying out attacks as well. The Iraqi Security Forces have proven incapable of containing these groups. That means that things will likely get worse, and 2014 is looking like a very bad year for Iraq.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq casualties from violence (March 2014),” 4/1/14

Iraq Body Count

Radio Nawa, “UNAMI: killing 592 people and wounding 1234 others as a result of violence in Iraq over the past month,” 4/1/14

How Will Voting Take Place In Iraq’s Anbar With The On Going Fighting?

 

With fighting continuing in Iraq’s western Anbar province for the third straight month many are questioning how elections are to be held there in April 2014. The Election Commission is moving ahead with its work and attempting to distribute voting cards within the governorate, while coming up with new schemes on how to deal with the hundreds of thousands that are displaced both within and without Anbar. At the same time, politicians are flip flopping on whether the process will work and be legitimate, while some within Anbar are actively encouraging people not to vote. It appears that Baghdad will push ahead with the vote despite the many difficulties that lay ahead with registration, intimidation, and the possibility of disenfranchisement. 

The Election Commission and political parties are struggling with how to address the public in Anbar, and make sure they vote given the continuing insecurity. Anbar has 15 parliamentary seats up for grab, and roughly 900,000 eligible voters. One major problem is that up to one-third of the population has been displaced due to the fighting and moved into neighboring Kurdistan, Salahaddin, Kirkuk, Diyala, Baghdad, Najaf, Karbala, Ninewa, and safer parts of the governorate such as Ana, Haditha, Rawa, and Hit. The Commission has to not only register these people, but also distribute the new electronic voting cards to them. In mid-March it was reported that only 30% of Anbar was safe for election workers to move around in, and that March 27 only 17% of cards had been handed out. Then on March 30 it was reported that the Commission was no longer requiring the displaced to use the cards because it was too difficult to get them out to the public. It said a new system would be created to assure refugees that they could vote. Another major difficulty is the fact that since voters have been dispersed across so many provinces it will make it nearly impossible for the candidates’ campaigns to reach all of them. A lawmaker from Parliament Speaker Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun for example told Al Mada that candidates would have to travel across 9 different governorates, requiring huge amounts of time and money that they may not have. At least those areas are safe, because Fallujah and parts of Ramadi are not. Those two urban centers along with many of the surrounding villages are seeing constant gunfire, bombings, and government shelling and air strikes making it impossible for the Election Commission and political parties to gain entrance to them. That means thousands of voters in those areas will not be allowed to vote because they won’t be registered. Together these two issues make it apparent that a large number of Anbaris will not be able to vote, and that the political lists will have a very hard time getting across their messages to them.

That has led many to question whether the voting will be legitimate or not. Parliamentarian Ibrahim al-Mutlaq from the Iraqi National Movement questioned how people were supposed to get to the polls given the security situation in Anbar. A Mutahidun lawmaker accused the government of purposely trying to keep voting down in the province by launching the security operation there when it did and arresting people, while a member of Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List claimed that there would be massive fraud due to the large number of displaced voters. Members of the Anbar council have also gone back and forth on whether the voting could even take place. In early March the deputy head of the council Faleh Issawi said that only 35% of the governorate was safe to hold the elections. Later in the month he listed all the towns and cities that would be off limits because they were controlled by insurgents including Fallujah, Garma, Saqlawiya, Nasaf, parts of Amiriya Fallujah, Zawba, and Niamiya. At the same time, Governor Ahmed Dulaimi Diab and the council started talking about the voting happening on schedule. March 27 for instance, Al Mada reported that members of the council told it that most of the province was secure, that the security forces could protect the voting process, and only that Fallujah was a problem. Many of these parties are nervous because Anbar is a major part of their base, and the uncertainty over the elections makes it unclear who will get the votes.

Not only will casting ballots be difficult at best for Anbaris in April, but there are elements attempting to convince them not to go to the polls. Some clerics have issued fatwas against the elections, and several sheikhs have said that the voting will be illegitimate. Militants have threatened election centers, and some candidates have pulled out due to the insecurity. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has also started a campaign to warn people not to cast their ballots. While Anbar hasn’t been mentioned in that effort yet it’s likely that they telling people not to participate there as well since the group has opposed all of Iraq’s elections. Finally, one of the reasons why Anbar has turned so violent is because many there have given up on politics as a way to have their demands expressed and their needs met. Given that high level of cynicism and anger at the government it was an open question about how many would turn out even if there wasn’t fighting going on there.

The authorities are doing their best to prepare Anbar for next months voting, but it’s not clear how many will be able to vote, and how many will want to. The Election Commission is attempting to prepare the public within Anbar, while setting up a special system for the displaced that will ease the process. How candidates will reach out to the dispersed population, how the voting will go off with an active insurgency going on, and how many people will turn out are all open questions. It appears that the government will count any level of turnout as a success given the circumstances and just move ahead with counting ballots, declaring winners, and then leaving the parties to negotiate a new government afterward.

SOURCES

Abdullah, Omar, Lewis, Jessica, Bilger, Alex, “ISIS Condemns Elections, Posts Warnings in Kirkuk, Diyala, Ninewa, and Northern Baghdad,” Institute for the Study of War,” 3/28/14

Habib, Mustafa, “no elections for troubled anbar? Possible postponement jeopardizes all iraq,” Niqash, 3/6/14

Inoma, Ali, “Anbar witnesses political divide amid ongoing clashes,” Al Monitor, 3/14/14

Al Mada, “Anbar provincial council: We are with holding elections on time and the security forces liberated most areas except for Fallujah,” 3/27/14

- “MPs and politicians Anbar: maintaining security operations with the objectives of the political and electoral pave the way for a third term for the owners,” 1/27/14

- “United fears decline of “the representation of Anbar” in the next parliament and demanding “facilities” for candidates and voters,” 3/30/14

National Iraqi News Agency, “Anbar governor says that the security forces captures most of Ramadi neighborhoods,” 3/14/14

- “MP: If the military approach in Anbar continues, the elections in the province is likely to postpone,” 2/4/14

Radio Nawa, “Distribution of 17% of the electronic voter cards in Anbar province,” 3/27/14

Al Rayy, “Faleh al-Issawi emphasizes the impossibility of holding the elections in most areas of the province,” 3/2/14

Shafaq News, “Nujaifi: Postponement of elections is expected,” 2/24/14

Tariq, Amar, “Anbar provincial council: We have informed the Commission that it could not hold elections in 40% of the province,” Alsumaria, 3/24/14

Supreme Council Tries To Position Itself As Centrist-Nationalist Party Before Iraq’s 2014 Elections

 

The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and its Citizen’s Alliance is attempting to move into another stage of its political career as it prepares for this year’s parliamentary elections. The party was originally formed in Iran to organize pro-Khomeini Iraqi forces on its side during the Iran-Iraq War. Before the 2003 invasion it aligned itself with the United States so that it would gain a seat in the post-Saddam government that the Americans would put together. Afterward it argued for a Shiite region and gained control of most of the south and Baghdad in the 2005 elections. It was then punished in the polls in 2009 and 2010 for its poor governorship. It had even more problems as in between those two elections its leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim passed away, and his son Ammar Hakim lost the support of the old guard, which eventually led to the Badr Organization splitting away and joining Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. To the surprise of many ISCI made a comeback in 2013 in the governorate level voting. Now it is trying to build on that for this year’s balloting. The party has tried to portray itself as a centrist and nationalist organization that is willing to work with others to solve the country’s deep divisions.

ISCI Leader Ammar Hakim has attempted to lead his party in a new direction in 2014 (LA Times)

This year the Supreme Council has tried to position itself as a party committed to solving Iraq’s problems rather than creating more of them by arguing with other lists. When the fighting in Anbar started in December 2013 the Citizen’s Alliance first called on the local tribes to confront the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), and then offered a political plan to rebuild the province and empower local leaders. Many in Anbar have complained that Baghdad is constantly interfering in their affairs and ignoring their demands, so ISCI tried to address both those issues. It said only through political compromises could the conflict be resolved in the governorate. On the legislative front it called on lawmakers to attend sessions, which is always a problem, so that laws can be passed to serve the public. Parliamentarians are constantly absent, and because of the political divisions it is very difficult to pass any meaningful laws. Ammar Hakim has met with some governors like Basra’s Majid Nasrawi calling for better services in the provinces. This was one thing that made the Citizen’s Alliance successful in 2013, appealing to local concerns. It has tried to position itself as a mediator in the conflict between the central and Kurdistan regional governments. In March for instance, it offered an initiative to resolve the dispute between the two over the budget and oil industry based upon greater transparency over production and exports, while maintaining Baghdad’s control over the latter. On this issue ISCI was taking more of a nationalist position as it argued for the Oil Ministry to maintain the lead over the energy field. Hakim also met with Moqtada al-Sadr and offered to be a middleman between Maliki and Kurdistan, and said that he was committed to working out the differences between two so that the 2014 budget could be passed. The budget has become a political football between the premier and his opponents. Once again, the Supreme Council was attempting to portray itself as a list more interested in getting things done then arguing with others. When a presidential guard killed a Radio Free Iraq reporter in Baghdad in March it criticized other parties for attempting to use it for their own political gain. ISCI was referring to the prime minister here as he personally oversaw the arrest of the perpetrator in an obvious political move just before the elections. What differentiated the Supreme Council was that it did not directly attack Maliki. Finally, it announced a “Citizens’ Wants” campaign to try to connect to the public claiming that it wanted to appeal to all sects and groups in the country, while reaching out the tribes and asking their sheikhs to turn out their followers. All these themes make up the Supreme Council’s current election campaign. Rather than getting caught up in partisan disputes it has offered itself up as an honest broker with plenty of ideas to address the country’s many problems. It has used both populist and nationalist rhetoric aligning itself with local concerns, while also stressing the necessity for an effective central government. This is a long ways away from the group’s original image of a pro-Iranian Shiite party that wanted decentralization, and shows the current transformation Hakim is attempting to orchestrate.

The Supreme Council has shown the ability to learn and adapt to its past mistakes. After its devastating losses in the 2009 and 2010 elections it completely reformed its message. It is stressing its Iraqiness and commitment to Baghdad as the center that can resolve the country’s many problems with the periphery. Unlike the vast majority of other political parties, ISCI has largely refrained from attacking others directly. Since it is largely competing for the Shiite vote this sets it apart from the Prime Minister’s State of Law (SOL) and Moqtada al-Sadr’s Ahrar bloc. Sadr has tried to appropriate some of these same themes, but has increasingly moved towards attacking the Prime Minister leading to a war of words between the two. SOL has also consistently attacked its rivals, blaming both its domestic and foreign opponents for all the country’s ills. With its success in the 2013 provincial vote the Supreme Council is hoping to do just as well or better this year. How many seats it gains is actually not as important as what direction it takes after all the ballots are counted. Whatever the breakdown the Shiite parties will still have the majority. It is now clear that Sadr is going to challenge a third term for Maliki. That means which side the Supreme Council takes will have the greatest chance to lead the country. Right now ISCI is trying to benefit from the disputes between those two, but it will eventually have to decide to align with one or another, and that might be the turning point in the government formation process that will be a long and difficult one.

SOURCES

AIN, “Hakim urges for heavily participation in next elections,” 3/27/14

Barzinji, Shwan, “Al-Hakim and al-Sadr try to resolve rift between KRG and Baghdad,” Bas News, 3/18/14

Buratha News, “Chairman of the parliamentary Citizens’ bloc Bayan Jabr: blocks investing in killing of Bedaiwi for electoral purposes in spite of the incident of Karbala coach,” 3/24/14

Al Forat, “Citizen bloc calls Anbar tribes to cooperate with IA to eliminate ISIL elements from Anbar,” 1/7/14

- “Citizen bloc releases five-point initiative to settle KR, CG oil crisis,” 3/18/14

- “Hakim: Aim behind “Citizen wants” initiative to conduct contract between citizens, their candidates,” 3/26/14

Iraqi News, “Hakim stresses necessity of providing services in Basra,” 3/17/14

Al-Kadhimi, Mustafa, “Hakim launches political initiative to resolve Anbar crisis,” Al Monitor, 1/14/14

Sotaliraq, “Zubaidi calls for united to attend parliamentary sessions in order to pass important laws that serve the citizen,” 1/12/14

Musings On Iraq In The News

 

The Iraqi paper Sotaliraq reprinted my story on the new United Nations figures on poverty in Iraq. I was also cited in this article on the National Review's Nick Lowry by FAIR. 

CENTER FOR ACADEMIC SHI'A STUDIES VIDEO: Struggle For Iraq's Future Feb 2014