With fighting continuing in Iraq’s western Anbar province
for the third straight month many are questioning how elections are to be held
there in April 2014. The Election Commission is moving ahead with its work and
attempting to distribute voting cards within the governorate, while coming up
with new schemes on how to deal with the hundreds of thousands that are
displaced both within and without Anbar. At the same time, politicians are flip
flopping on whether the process will work and be legitimate, while some within
Anbar are actively encouraging people not to vote. It appears that Baghdad will
push ahead with the vote despite the many difficulties that lay ahead with
registration, intimidation, and the possibility of disenfranchisement.
The Election Commission and political parties are struggling
with how to address the public in Anbar, and make sure they vote given the
continuing insecurity. Anbar has 15 parliamentary seats up for
grab, and roughly 900,000 eligible voters. One major problem is that up to
one-third of the population has been displaced due to the fighting and moved
into neighboring Kurdistan, Salahaddin, Kirkuk, Diyala, Baghdad, Najaf,
Karbala, Ninewa, and safer parts of the governorate such as Ana, Haditha, Rawa,
and Hit. The Commission has to not only register these people, but also
distribute the new electronic voting cards to them. In mid-March it was
reported that only 30%
of Anbar was safe for election workers to move around in, and that March 27
only 17%
of cards had been handed out. Then on March
30 it was reported that the Commission was no longer requiring the
displaced to use the cards because it was too difficult to get them out to the
public. It said a new system would be created to assure refugees that they
could vote. Another major difficulty is the fact that since voters have been
dispersed across so many provinces it will make it nearly impossible for the
candidates’ campaigns to reach all of them. A lawmaker from Parliament Speaker
Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun for example told
Al Mada that candidates would have to travel across 9 different
governorates, requiring huge amounts of time and money that they may not have.
At least those areas are safe, because Fallujah and parts of Ramadi are not.
Those two urban centers along with many of the surrounding villages are seeing
constant gunfire, bombings, and government shelling and air strikes making it
impossible for the Election Commission and political parties to gain entrance
to them. That means thousands of voters in those areas will not be allowed to vote
because they won’t be registered. Together these two issues make it apparent
that a large number of Anbaris will not be able to vote, and that the political
lists will have a very hard time getting across their messages to them.
That has led many to question whether the voting will be
legitimate or not. Parliamentarian
Ibrahim al-Mutlaq from the Iraqi National Movement questioned how people
were supposed to get to the polls given the security situation in Anbar. A Mutahidun
lawmaker accused the government of purposely trying to keep voting down in
the province by launching the security operation there when it did and
arresting people, while a member of Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List claimed
that there would be massive fraud due to the large number of displaced voters.
Members of the Anbar council have also gone back and forth on whether the
voting could even take place. In early March the deputy head of the council Faleh Issawi said that only 35% of the
governorate was safe to hold the elections. Later
in the month he listed all the towns and cities that would be off limits
because they were controlled by insurgents including Fallujah, Garma,
Saqlawiya, Nasaf, parts of Amiriya Fallujah, Zawba, and Niamiya. At the same
time, Governor
Ahmed Dulaimi Diab and the council
started talking about the voting happening on schedule. March 27 for instance,
Al Mada reported that members of the council told it that most of the province
was secure, that the security forces could protect the voting process, and only
that Fallujah was a problem. Many of these parties are nervous because Anbar is
a major part of their base, and the uncertainty over the elections makes it
unclear who will get the votes.
Not only will casting ballots be difficult at best for
Anbaris in April, but there are elements attempting to convince them not to go
to the polls. Some clerics
have issued fatwas against the elections, and several sheikhs have said
that the voting will be illegitimate. Militants have threatened
election centers, and some candidates have pulled out due to the
insecurity. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has also started a
campaign to warn
people not to cast their ballots. While Anbar hasn’t been mentioned in that
effort yet it’s likely that they telling people not to participate there as
well since the group has opposed all of Iraq’s elections. Finally, one of the
reasons why Anbar has turned so violent is because many there have given up on
politics as a way to have their demands expressed and their needs met. Given
that high level of cynicism and anger at the government it was an open question
about how many would turn out even if there wasn’t fighting going on there.
The authorities are doing their best to prepare Anbar for
next months voting, but it’s not clear how many will be able to vote, and how
many will want to. The Election Commission is attempting to prepare the public
within Anbar, while setting up a special system for the displaced that will
ease the process. How candidates will reach out to the dispersed population,
how the voting will go off with an active insurgency going on, and how many
people will turn out are all open questions. It appears that the government
will count any level of turnout as a success given the circumstances and just
move ahead with counting ballots, declaring winners, and then leaving the
parties to negotiate a new government afterward.
SOURCES
Abdullah, Omar, Lewis, Jessica,
Bilger, Alex, “ISIS Condemns Elections, Posts Warnings in Kirkuk, Diyala,
Ninewa, and Northern Baghdad,” Institute for the Study of War,” 3/28/14
Habib, Mustafa, “no elections for
troubled anbar? Possible postponement jeopardizes all iraq,” Niqash, 3/6/14
Inoma, Ali, “Anbar witnesses
political divide amid ongoing clashes,” Al Monitor, 3/14/14
Al Mada, “Anbar provincial council: We are with holding
elections on time and the security forces liberated most areas except for
Fallujah,” 3/27/14
- “MPs and politicians Anbar: maintaining
security operations with the objectives of the political and electoral pave the
way for a third term for the owners,” 1/27/14
- “United fears decline of “the
representation of Anbar” in the next parliament and demanding “facilities” for
candidates and voters,” 3/30/14
National Iraqi News Agency, “Anbar
governor says that the security forces captures most of Ramadi neighborhoods,”
3/14/14
- “MP: If the military approach in
Anbar continues, the elections in the province is likely to postpone,” 2/4/14
Radio Nawa, “Distribution of 17% of the electronic voter
cards in Anbar province,” 3/27/14
Al Rayy, “Faleh al-Issawi
emphasizes the impossibility of holding the elections in most areas of the
province,” 3/2/14
Shafaq News, “Nujaifi:
Postponement of elections is expected,” 2/24/14
Tariq, Amar, “Anbar provincial council: We have informed the
Commission that it could not hold elections in 40% of the province,” Alsumaria,
3/24/14
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