Insurgents Ramp Up Violence Before Iraq’s April Elections

 

Iraq is due to have parliamentary elections on April 30, 2014. Many insurgent groups are opposed to the voting and are doing their best to disrupt the process. They have attacked polling stations and candidates along with their regular operations against the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the general public. The result is that April has seen some of the heaviest violence and casualties so far this year.

In March 2014 the number of security incidents dipped in Iraq, but have picked back up since then. From March 1-7 there were 253 security incidents reported in the press. That was an average of 36.1 attacks per day. That was followed by 206 incidents March 8-14, an average of 29.4, then 216 March 15-21, 30.8, 211 March 22-28, 30.1, and 108 from March 29-31, 36.0. In April those figures have gone up to 238 incidents April 1-7, 34.0, 223 April 8-14, 31.8, and 252 from April 15-21, 36.0 per day. For the year there has been an up and down pattern. There were a total of 1,012 attacks in January for an average of 32.6 per day, 945 incidents in February, average of 33.7, 996 in March, 32.1 per day, and 713 from April 1-7, 33.9. This month the insurgency is obviously picking up their operations to try to disrupt the elections.

The number of security incidents only tells part of the story of Iraq’s current problems, the casualties tell another part of the story. The number of dead and wounded has steadily increased since the beginning of the year. In January there were 1,379 deaths and 2,634 wounded. In February there were 1,274 killed and 2,526 wounded, 1,606 fatalities in March, and 2,901 wounded, and 1,027 killed and 1,982 injured from April 1-21. The rising costs of the insurgency are shown more clearly by the averages. There were 44.4 deaths per day in January, 45.5 per day in February, 51.8 in March, and 48.9 over the first three weeks of April. The same trend is seen with the wounded going from 84.9 per day in January to 94.3 in April. 

Security Incidents In Iraq Jan-Apr 2014

Date	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
Jan 1-7	245	363	736
Jan 8-14	267	372	683
Jan 15-21	202	358	597
Jan 22-28	240	308	624
Jan 29-31	58	93	227
Jan Total	1,012	1,379	2,634
Feb 1-7	204	296	700
Feb 8-14	226	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	346	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	618
Feb Total	945	1,274	2,526
Mar 1-7	253	412	702
Mar 8-14	206	324	607
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-28	211	279	580
Mar 29-31	108	169	270
Mar Total	996	1,606	2,901
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	223	362	646
Apr 15-21	252	406	786
Apr 1-21	713	1,027	1,982

Security Incident Averages Jan-Apr 2014

Month	Incidents	Deaths	Wounded
Jan	32.6	44.4	84.9
Feb	33.7	45.5	90.2
Mar	32.1	51.8	93.5
Apr 1-21	33.9	48.9	94.3

The number of shootings has decreased since the beginning of the year, while bombings have gone up. There were 470 gunfire incidents in January, going down to 444 in February, 419 in March, and 289 so far in April. At the same time the number of bombings, mostly improvised explosive devices (IEDs), but also including sticky bombs, car bombs, and suicide bombers has gone from 514 in January to 466 in February, to 579 in March, and 385 in the first three weeks of April. That last month the number of car bombs has increased. For instance there were 18 vehicle born improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) from April 1-7, 21 from April 8-14, and 20 from April 15-21. These are launched in waves by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and usually coordinated across the country. The third week of April provides a brief sample. The first wave started April 15 when there were two suicide car bombs on the government complex in Ramadi. The next day two suicide bombers attacked the Anbar Operations Command in Ramadi, while two car bombs hit Sadr City and Obeidi both in eastern Baghdad. April 17 three VBIEDs struck Karrada, Obeidi and Sadr City in the capital. April 18 there were no such attacks. Then the second wave started on April 19 with a car bomb on an army base in Sumer, Ninewa and another in Baiji, Salahaddin. Then there was a car bomb in Musayib, Babil, a car bomb on a checkpoint in Mosul, Ninewa, and two VBIEDs on Rumaitha, Muthanna on April 20. Finally, April 21 car bombs hit Sadr City and Shaab, and a suicide VBIED in Madain on a checkpoint in Baghdad, another such incident in Mosul, and another checkpoint hit in Wasit. In total these attacks cost the lives of 83 people and wounded an additional 219. The number of car bombs goes up and down as ISIS expends its stocks and has to wait for the next batch to be manufactured.

Types of Attacks Jan-Apr 2014

Month	Shootings	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombers
Jan	470	514	78	45
Feb	444	466	73	43
Mar	419	579	73	43
Apr 1-21	289	385	59	34

Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) April 15-21

Date	Location	Deaths	Wounded
4/15	Ramadi, Anbar x 2	5	12
4/16	Ramadi, Anbar x 2, Sadr City & Obeidi, Baghdad	16	39
4/17	Karrada, Obeidi & Sadr City, Baghdad	16	53
4/18	-	-	-
4/19	Sumer, Ninewa, Baiji, Salahaddin	5	8
4/20	Musayib, Babil, Mosul, Ninewa, Rumaitha, Muthanna x2	11	46
4/21	Sadr City, Madain & Shaab, Baghdad, Mosul Ninewa, ?, Wasit	30	61
Totals	20	83	219

Site of a car bombing in Baghdad Apr 21, 2014 (AFP)

Militants have also gone after voting centers and candidates to deter people from voting. Just in April there was an IED against a voting center in Ramadi on the 5^th. April 6 a grenade was thrown at a candidate’s house in Hit, Anbar. April 7 an IED went off outside a candidate’s home in Hawija, Kirkuk. April 9 two people putting up election posters in Tikrit were shot and wounded. April 11 another candidate’s house was bombed in Kirkuk wounding his wife and son. The same thing happened the next day in the same city. April 14 the son of a candidate in Kirkuk was kidnapped. April 17 and 18 two candidates were shot and wounded in separate incidents. April 19 a sticky bomb attached to his car in Qaim, Anbar, wounded a candidate for Mutahidun. Finally, April 21 a voting center in Daquq, Kirkuk was stormed by gunmen who killed six and wounded another 10. These types of incidents have only increased as the voting draws nearer.

While violence has picked up in recent weeks not all insurgent groups are opposed to the election. Reportedly ISIS, the Naqshibandi, the Army of the Mujahedeen, Ansar al-Islam, and armed factions connected to Harith al-Dhari are all against participating in the balloting. The Islamic State has even launched a campaign telling and threatening people not to vote. The Islamic Army, Hamas Iraq, the Salahaddin Brigades, and the Political Council of the Iraqi Resistance support people going out and casting ballots. Since the two largest groups ISIS and the Naqshibandi are trying to stop the vote that likely means attacks will continue to increase. More importantly there’s a questions of whether the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are competent enough to protect the polling stations and public on April 30. Usually the government tries to shut down normal activities by declaring a day off, setting up checkpoints, and banning vehicle traffic. With the ISF stretched thin with its commitment in Anbar, and its inability to contain the growth of the insurgency these may not be enough this year, and serious incidents may take place.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, "Bombers kill five at Iraq provincial govt compound," 4/16/14

AIN, "Car bomb explodes in northern Babel," 4/20/14

- "Voting Center detonated in central Ramadi," 4/5/14

Al Forat, "Wasit car bombing kills, injured 27 persons as initial count," 4/21/14

Iraq Times, "A car bomb explosion north of Wasit 29 martyrs and wounded," 4/21/14

- "The explosion of two car bombs in Sadr City led to 25 martyrs and wounded,"4/17/14

Al Jazeera, "Dozens killed in Iraq attacks and bombings," 4/21/14

- "Many dead in Iraq violence ahead of vote," 4/20/14

Al Mada, "Bomb kills carriers and infects a woman north of Tikrit," 4/19/14

Al Masalah, "3 killed and 39 injured by a roadside bombs north of Samawah," 4/20/14

- "5 killed 18 wounded by a car bomb in New Baghdad," 4/16/14

- "Killing three civilians and wounding 14 by a roadside bomb," 4/16/14

New Sabah, “”Daash” Dari and suites and the league are boycotting the elections…and the Islamic Army and “Hammas” and “Council of Resistance” with the ballot,” 4/25/14

NINA, "Army kills three bombers and destroys their car bombs," 4/20/14

- "One civilian killed, 11 others wounded in two separate incidents in Baghdad," 4/21/14

- "One soldier killed, two others wounded by a car bomb west of Mosul," 4/21/14

Al Rayy, "Martyrdom and wounding 13 people, including soldiers in car bomb detonation south east of Mosul," 4/19/14

- "Martyrdom and wounding a number of people in a car bombing in Mosul," 4/21/14

Salaheddin, Sinan, "Gunmen Attack Iraq Military Base, Kill 10 Soldiers," Associated Press, 4/17/14

- "Iraq: Separate attacks kill at least 12 people," 4/20/14

Xinhua, "36 killed, 53 wounded in violent attacks across Iraq," 4/16/14