As Iraq’s elections draw nearer Moqtada al-Sadr and his
movement are going in opposite directions. On the one hand his movement is
continuing with its attacks upon Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. For the first
time it appears that Sadr is serious about challenging the premier this year.
On the other hand his party appears to be in disarray. It is running three
separate lists and the recently created Board of Trustees that was supposed to
take care of politics after Sadr’s retirement has been disbanded. This is an
inauspicious start to the official campaign period before the vote.
In March and April the Sadr movement continued to criticize
Prime Minister Maliki. From March 10 to 12 Sadrists held
rallies in Baghdad, Najaf, Karbala, Basra, Kirkuk, Maysan, Dhi Qar, Babil,
Wasit, and Diyala against the premier for his remarks belittling Moqtada
al-Sadr. There were also reports of attacks upon Dawa offices, which were
played down by both parties so that the election didn’t get sidetracked by violence.
March 23, Sadr’s Ahrar List said it opposed
Maliki serving a third term, stating that other parties and the Iraqi
people wanted change. It went on to say that Maliki had failed to secure the
country or to provide political stability. Continuing with that line on April 3
Sadr gave a speech
calling Maliki a dictator who was leading the country towards one party rule by
banning his opponents. Sadr was joined by parliamentarian Jawad Shahlya from
Ahrar and independent lawmaker Saban al-Saadi, both of which had been barred
from running in this year’s vote. Sadr went on to accuse the prime minister of
attempting to marginalize Sunnis by launching military operations in Anbar.
Sadr finished by calling on Maliki to
step aside so someone else could try running the country. Finally, on April
5 Shahlya claimed Maliki was attempting to pass a law that would give him
broad powers that would lead to the declaration of a state of emergency and the
dissolution of the parliament. Many of these themes the Sadr movement has
touched on before. Sadr has called Maliki an autocrat and challenged his rule.
Other points like Shahlya’s criticism of the proposed law were cheap political
posturing as there was little chance that the legislature would pass any bill
like that before the elections. The Sadrists were also using this period to
rally its followers with the demonstrations. The party is one of the few that
has a popular base that can be called out into the streets. The intensity of
the campaign against the prime minister was also highlighted by the attacks
upon his party’s offices.
At the same time, the Sadr movement appeared to be going
through a bit of organizational confusion. On April
5 the Sadrists officially launched their election campaign. Rather than
just running its Ahrar bloc it said that would have two others lists in the
race as well, the Elites and the National Partnership. Then on April 7
the Board of Trustees headed by Karrar Khafaji, which was supposed to run the
political party after Sadr’s retirement on February 15 was dissolved. The
Sadrists have run multiple parties in previous elections, but Ahrar has been
established and run alone in recent votes. Although the movement has a strong
machine with its offices and social services, which should get out the word
about what lists to cast ballots for, adding two more parties to the mix just
looks to be muddying the waters. The dissolution of the Board of Trustees ends
the myth that Sadr retired. He is probably taking a more hands on leadership
role now that the elections are just a few weeks away, and there was no need to
keep up the façade of a separate group running things. Still, both moves were
sending the wrong message at this crucial time. First, the movement is
splitting its resources across three parties instead of just one. Second,
everyone knows that Sadr maintains control over his movement, but the quick
creation and dissolution of the Board of Trustees points towards short-term
thinking and a lack of strategic planning. It also maintains Sadr’s mercurial
image, which goes against his attempt to become a national leader.
Sadr believes that the conditions are finally right to depose
Maliki from office. His movement has been building up its criticism of the
prime minister for the last several years. Before Sadr would attack the
premier, and then go back to supporting him. Now the gloves are off and Ahrar
wants to stop Maliki from a 3rd term. Given the seriousness of this
effort it’s surprising that the Trend would be making so many mistakes at the
same time. Running three parties and getting rid of the Board of Trustees so
soon after it was created show poor decision-making. In the end, Sadr probably
believes that his base will come out and vote for his representatives no matter
what, and then the real game will begin when he has to negotiate with other
parties to try to put together a coalition that will depose the prime minister.
SOURCES
Al Arabiya, “Sadr
urges Iraqi PM Maliki not to run for third term,” 4/3/14
Buratha News, “Muqtada al-Sadr
supports the Liberals and confirms they will be on top this year and will be
the voice of the Shiite,” 4/3/14
Iraq Team and Ali,
Ahmed, “Iraq Update 2014 #13: Sadrists Challenge Prime Minister Maliki before
Iraqi Elections,” Institute for the Study of War, 3/21/14
Iraq Times, “Liberal
confirm its rejection of Maliki’s nomination for a third term,” 3/23/14
Al Mada, “Liberal
bloc launches its election manifesto declares hope for formation of a majority
government consisting of everyone,” 4/5/14
National Iraqi News
Agency, “Muqtada al-Sadr : the government seeks to target the true opposition,”
3/21/14
- “Sadr, decides to dissolve the
Board of Trustees of Sadrist movement,” 4/7/14
Sabah, Mohammed,
“Liberals: We fear al-Maliki will dissolve the parliament and declare a state
of emergency, taking advantage of the absence of the President,” Al Mada,
4/5/14
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