Security In Iraq Looked Much Worse In March 2014 Compared To February

 

The groups that tracked Iraqi deaths had a bit of a divergence in March 2014. Iraq Body Count and the Iraqi government had casualties going up, while Agence France Presse saw a large drop. The United Nations was roughly the same as the previous months of the year. Musings On Iraq’s own count saw a large increase to the highest level so far in 2014. Still the majority opinion was that the security situation was getting worse in Iraq.

The number of fatalities went in different directions in March depending upon which group was consulted. Iraq Body Count had 1,009 killed up from 930 in February. The Iraqi government said 1,004 people died in March compared to 790 the previous month. Since September 2012 the government ministries have been releasing much more realistic figures after keeping them extremely low compared to other organizations. The United Nations counted 748 killed. That included 592 deaths in Iraq’s 17 provinces and 156 from Anbar’s Health Directorate. In January the U.N. had 733 and 703 in February, but those did not include Anbar. Still their numbers have stayed relatively stable for 2014. Agence France Presse was the anomaly from the others as it went from 991 in January to 747 in February to 512 in March. Finally, Musings On Iraq’s own statistics had 1,607 killed in March, the highest amount so far this year. One major cause for deaths to go up and down are the number of major bombings. Musings On Iraq counted the same number of car and suicide bombers 73 and 43 respectively in February and March, so that was not the case this time. Rather the reason why there was an increase in casualties was a sharp jump in violence in Anbar and Salahaddin. The news agencies and the Iraqi press reported 184 killed in Anbar in February compared to 343 in March. 122 of the latter were from government shelling. Likewise in Salahaddin deaths went from 272 in February to 368 in March. Since the start of the year those two provinces have become some of the most insecure in the country.

Deaths In Iraq 2003-2013

Month/Year	Iraq Body Count	Avg. Daily Deaths	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Daily Deaths	United Nations	Avg. Daily Deaths	Agence France Presse	Avg. Daily Deaths	Musings On Iraq	Avg. Daily Deaths
2003	4,675	19.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2004	11,608	31.8l	11,313	30.99	-	-	-	-	-	-
2005	16,186	44.2	15,817	43.3	-	-	-	-	-	-
2006	29,144	79.8	32,622	89.3	34,452	94.3	-	-	-	-
2007	25,519	69.9	19,155	52.4	-	-	-	-	-	-
2008	9,839	26.9	9,046	24.7	11,536	31.6	-	-	-	-
2009	5,132	14.0	3,682	10.0	4,611	12.6	-	-	-	-
2010	4,109	11.2	3,949	10.8	4,855	13.3	-	-	-	-
2011	4,147	11.3	2,781	7.6	4,150	11.3	-	-	-	-
2012	4,573	12.5	2,174	5.9	3,878	10.6	1,531 (7 mo.)	7.1	-	-
Jan. 2013	357	11.5	177	5.7	319	10.2	246	7.9	-	-
Feb.	360	12.7	136	4.8	418	14.9	220	7.8	-	-
Mar.	403	13.0	163	5.2	456	14.7	271	8.7	-	-
Apr.	545	18.1	208	6.9	712	23.7	461	15.3	-	-
May	888	28.6	681	21.9	1,045	33.7	614	19.8	-	-
Jun.	659	21.9	240	8.0	761	25.3	452	15.0	-	-
Jul.	1,145	36.9	989	31.9	1,057	34.0	875	28.2	-	-
Aug.	1,012	32.6	365	11.7	804	25.9	693	22.3	-	-
Sep.	1,221	40.7	971	32.3	979	32.6	880	29.3	-	-
Oct.	1,095	35.3	964	31.0	979	31.5	743	23.9	-	-
Nov.	903	30.1	948/1,121	31.6/ 37.3	659	21.9	693	23.1	-	-
Dec.	983	31.7	1,001	32.2	759	24.4	668	21.5	-	-
2013 Totals	9,571	25.9	6,843/ 7,016	18.7/ 19.2	8,948	24.5	6,818	18.6	-	-
Jan. 2014	1,076	34.7	1,013	32.6	733*	23.6	991	31.9	1,495	48.2
Feb.	930	33.2	790	28.2	703*	25.1	747	26.5	1,296	46.2
Mar.	1,009	32.5	1,004	32.3	748	24.1	512	16.5	1,607	51.8

* Figures do not include Anbar

The overall picture is that the security situation in Iraq is deteriorating. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) is carrying out open military parades in Anbar and Baghdad provinces. The Naqshibandi, Ansar al-Sunna, the Islamic Army, the 1920 Revolution Brigades, Hamas Iraq, and some tribes are all carrying out attacks as well. The Iraqi Security Forces have proven incapable of containing these groups. That means that things will likely get worse, and 2014 is looking like a very bad year for Iraq.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq casualties from violence (March 2014),” 4/1/14

Iraq Body Count

Radio Nawa, “UNAMI: killing 592 people and wounding 1234 others as a result of violence in Iraq over the past month,” 4/1/14

How Will Voting Take Place In Iraq’s Anbar With The On Going Fighting?

 

With fighting continuing in Iraq’s western Anbar province for the third straight month many are questioning how elections are to be held there in April 2014. The Election Commission is moving ahead with its work and attempting to distribute voting cards within the governorate, while coming up with new schemes on how to deal with the hundreds of thousands that are displaced both within and without Anbar. At the same time, politicians are flip flopping on whether the process will work and be legitimate, while some within Anbar are actively encouraging people not to vote. It appears that Baghdad will push ahead with the vote despite the many difficulties that lay ahead with registration, intimidation, and the possibility of disenfranchisement. 

The Election Commission and political parties are struggling with how to address the public in Anbar, and make sure they vote given the continuing insecurity. Anbar has 15 parliamentary seats up for grab, and roughly 900,000 eligible voters. One major problem is that up to one-third of the population has been displaced due to the fighting and moved into neighboring Kurdistan, Salahaddin, Kirkuk, Diyala, Baghdad, Najaf, Karbala, Ninewa, and safer parts of the governorate such as Ana, Haditha, Rawa, and Hit. The Commission has to not only register these people, but also distribute the new electronic voting cards to them. In mid-March it was reported that only 30% of Anbar was safe for election workers to move around in, and that March 27 only 17% of cards had been handed out. Then on March 30 it was reported that the Commission was no longer requiring the displaced to use the cards because it was too difficult to get them out to the public. It said a new system would be created to assure refugees that they could vote. Another major difficulty is the fact that since voters have been dispersed across so many provinces it will make it nearly impossible for the candidates’ campaigns to reach all of them. A lawmaker from Parliament Speaker Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun for example told Al Mada that candidates would have to travel across 9 different governorates, requiring huge amounts of time and money that they may not have. At least those areas are safe, because Fallujah and parts of Ramadi are not. Those two urban centers along with many of the surrounding villages are seeing constant gunfire, bombings, and government shelling and air strikes making it impossible for the Election Commission and political parties to gain entrance to them. That means thousands of voters in those areas will not be allowed to vote because they won’t be registered. Together these two issues make it apparent that a large number of Anbaris will not be able to vote, and that the political lists will have a very hard time getting across their messages to them.

That has led many to question whether the voting will be legitimate or not. Parliamentarian Ibrahim al-Mutlaq from the Iraqi National Movement questioned how people were supposed to get to the polls given the security situation in Anbar. A Mutahidun lawmaker accused the government of purposely trying to keep voting down in the province by launching the security operation there when it did and arresting people, while a member of Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List claimed that there would be massive fraud due to the large number of displaced voters. Members of the Anbar council have also gone back and forth on whether the voting could even take place. In early March the deputy head of the council Faleh Issawi said that only 35% of the governorate was safe to hold the elections. Later in the month he listed all the towns and cities that would be off limits because they were controlled by insurgents including Fallujah, Garma, Saqlawiya, Nasaf, parts of Amiriya Fallujah, Zawba, and Niamiya. At the same time, Governor Ahmed Dulaimi Diab and the council started talking about the voting happening on schedule. March 27 for instance, Al Mada reported that members of the council told it that most of the province was secure, that the security forces could protect the voting process, and only that Fallujah was a problem. Many of these parties are nervous because Anbar is a major part of their base, and the uncertainty over the elections makes it unclear who will get the votes.

Not only will casting ballots be difficult at best for Anbaris in April, but there are elements attempting to convince them not to go to the polls. Some clerics have issued fatwas against the elections, and several sheikhs have said that the voting will be illegitimate. Militants have threatened election centers, and some candidates have pulled out due to the insecurity. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has also started a campaign to warn people not to cast their ballots. While Anbar hasn’t been mentioned in that effort yet it’s likely that they telling people not to participate there as well since the group has opposed all of Iraq’s elections. Finally, one of the reasons why Anbar has turned so violent is because many there have given up on politics as a way to have their demands expressed and their needs met. Given that high level of cynicism and anger at the government it was an open question about how many would turn out even if there wasn’t fighting going on there.

The authorities are doing their best to prepare Anbar for next months voting, but it’s not clear how many will be able to vote, and how many will want to. The Election Commission is attempting to prepare the public within Anbar, while setting up a special system for the displaced that will ease the process. How candidates will reach out to the dispersed population, how the voting will go off with an active insurgency going on, and how many people will turn out are all open questions. It appears that the government will count any level of turnout as a success given the circumstances and just move ahead with counting ballots, declaring winners, and then leaving the parties to negotiate a new government afterward.

SOURCES

Abdullah, Omar, Lewis, Jessica, Bilger, Alex, “ISIS Condemns Elections, Posts Warnings in Kirkuk, Diyala, Ninewa, and Northern Baghdad,” Institute for the Study of War,” 3/28/14

Habib, Mustafa, “no elections for troubled anbar? Possible postponement jeopardizes all iraq,” Niqash, 3/6/14

Inoma, Ali, “Anbar witnesses political divide amid ongoing clashes,” Al Monitor, 3/14/14

Al Mada, “Anbar provincial council: We are with holding elections on time and the security forces liberated most areas except for Fallujah,” 3/27/14

- “MPs and politicians Anbar: maintaining security operations with the objectives of the political and electoral pave the way for a third term for the owners,” 1/27/14

- “United fears decline of “the representation of Anbar” in the next parliament and demanding “facilities” for candidates and voters,” 3/30/14

National Iraqi News Agency, “Anbar governor says that the security forces captures most of Ramadi neighborhoods,” 3/14/14

- “MP: If the military approach in Anbar continues, the elections in the province is likely to postpone,” 2/4/14

Radio Nawa, “Distribution of 17% of the electronic voter cards in Anbar province,” 3/27/14

Al Rayy, “Faleh al-Issawi emphasizes the impossibility of holding the elections in most areas of the province,” 3/2/14

Shafaq News, “Nujaifi: Postponement of elections is expected,” 2/24/14

Tariq, Amar, “Anbar provincial council: We have informed the Commission that it could not hold elections in 40% of the province,” Alsumaria, 3/24/14