Despite A Drop In Attacks Casualties Remain High In Iraq In 2015

Two contradictory trends have been occurring in Iraq this year. First, the number of reported security incidents have been slowly going down. That hasn’t had any real effect upon casualties however, which have remained relatively the same for the last five months. This has been due to mass executions and a new wave of car bombs. May 2015 was a perfect example of these on going security issues.

There has been a slow decline in the number of attacks in Iraq. In January there were 815 incidents. Over the next three months attacks went down to just over 600 per month. Then in May there were 578. That month there were probably many more then what is usually missed because the media was so caught up in the fall of Ramadi security reporting on the rest of the country dramatically fell off. Still the average number of attacks showed a steady decline in violence. So far there has been an average of 26.2 per day in January, 23.3 in February, 22.2 in March, 21.1 in April, and 18.6 in May.

The drop in attacks did not have a corresponding affect upon casualties, which have remained high. In February there was a dip with 1,730 reported deaths. All the other months of this year there have been over 2,000 killed. In January there was 2,308 fatalities, 2,459 in March, 2,212 in April, and 2,416 in May. The number of wounded has been around the same level as well with 2,895 in January, 2,683 in February, 2,371 in March, 2,625 in April, and 1,898 in May. In total, that averaged out to 167.8 casualties per day in January, 157.6 in February, 155.8 in March, 161.2 in April, before going down to 139.1 in May. Again, because media coverage was poor last month that might be the reason why casualties went down. The reason why there have been so many casualties despite the attack figures has been executions, the discovery of mass graves, and the increasing use of car bombs. May was a perfect example with IS killing 638 civilians, Iraqi Security Force (ISF) members, and sahwa in Anbar after it took Ramadi. The actual number of dead and wounded is much higher as the authorities are not reporting most of their losses. It is likely that thousands and thousands of people have been injured and killed over the past year and never been recorded.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	142	1,299	503
Mar 22-28	170	235	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	689	2,459 + 4	2,371 + 150
Apr 1-7	121	212	422
Apr 8-14	133	626	525
Apr 15-21	169	722	714
Apr 22-28	160	483	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	633	2,212	2,625
May 1-7	154	626	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,416 + 1,499	1,898 + 646

Violence In Iraq By Province April-May 2015

Province	April	May
Anbar	142 Incidents 872 Killed: 322 ISF, 1 Hashd, 4 Sahwa, 538 Civilians 832 Wounded: 148 ISF, 1 Hashd, 31 Sahwa, 353 Civilians 92 Shootings 9 IEDs 7 Suicide Bombers 21 Suicide Car Bombs 7 Car Bombs 16 Mortars 2 Rockets	150 Incidents 1,232 Killed: 413 ISF, 39 Hashd, 42 Sahwa, 738 Civilians 574 Wounded: 228 ISF, 24 Hashd, 26 Sahwa, 738 Civilians 94 Shootings 27 IEDs 24 Suicide Bombers 47 Suicide Car Bombs 5 Car Bombs 12 Mortars 5 Rockets
Babil	20 Incidents 36 Killed: 11 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 19 Civilians 78 Wounded: 18 ISF, 60 Civilians 3 Shootings 14 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar	15 Incidents 11 Killed: 2 ISF, 9 Civilians 49 Wounded: 10 ISF, 5 Hashd, 34 Civilians 2 Shootings 9 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb
Baghdad	217 Incidents 392 Killed: 18 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 9 Hashd, 359 Civilians 1,160 Wounded: 39 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 20 Hashd, 1,091 Civilians 37 Shootings 118 IEDs 24 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb 23 Car Bombs 3 Mortars 2 Rockets 1 Grenade	213 Incidents 343 Killed: 11 ISF, 1 Hashd, 11 Sahwa, 320 Civilians 816 Wounded: 45 ISF, 11 Hashd, 18 Sahwa, 742 Civilians 73 Shootings 106 IEDs 22 Sticky Bombs 3 Suicide Car Bombs 8 Car Bombs 3 Mortars 1 Rockets
Basra	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 ISF 1 Shooting	3 Incidents 8 Killed: 8 Civilians 4 Wounded: 4 Civilians 3 Shootings
Dhi Qar	-	1 Incident 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 IED
Diyala	57 Incidents 81 Killed: 18 ISF, 3 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 57 Civilians 150 Wounded: 30 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 74 Hashd, 36 Civilians 28 Shootings 17 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 2 Rockets	47 Incidents 134 Killed: 13 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 1 Sahwa, 119 Civilians 109 Wounded: 15 ISF, 3 Asayesh, 91 Civilians 16 Shootings 22 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs
Irbil	1 Incident 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 17 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 15 Civilians 1 Car Bomb	-
Kirkuk	23 Incidents 102 Killed: 2 ISF, 10 Hashd, 18 Peshmerga, 72 Civilians 170 Wounded: 8 ISF, 39 Peshmerga, 94 Hashd, 29 Civilians 14 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Mortars 1 Rockets	28 Incidents 46 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 Hashd, 5 Peshmerga, 39 Civilians 24 Wounded: 10 Peshmerga, 14 Civilians 13 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Mortar
Maysan	2 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 2 Shootings	-
Najaf	-	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Ninewa	54 Incidents 97 Killed: 9 ISF, 2 YPG, 4 Hashd, 20 Peshmerga, 62 Civilians 25 Wounded: 6 Peshmerga, 19 Civilians 35 Shootings 24 IEDs 1 Artillery	45 Incidents 380 Killed: 2 ISF, 7 Peshmerga, 371 Civilians 2 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga 19 Shootings 46 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin	115 Incidents 624 Killed: 110 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 67 Hashd, 437 Civilians 193 Wounded: 72 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 49 Hashd, 70 Civilians 83 Shootings 17 IEDs 7 Suicide Bombers 5 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Car Bombs 5 Mortars 1 Grenade	75 Incidents 259 Killed: 173 ISF, 22 Hashd, 64 Civilians 319 Wounded: 192 ISF, 43 Hashd, 84 Civilians 35 Shootings 26 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 9 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 3 Mortars 1 Rockets

Car Bombs In Iraq May 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
May 1
May 2	Garma, Anbar Karrada x2, Baghdad	29	66
May 3
May 4	Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	3	5
May 5	Garma, Anbar Karrada, Baghdad	6	13
May 6
May 7	Baiji x2, Dour, Hamrin x2, Salahaddin	57	39
Totals	11	95	123
May 8	Baladrooz & Kanaan, Diyala	22	59
May 9	Karrada, Baghdad	8	30
May 10	Fallujah x3, Anbar Shaab, Baghdad Taji & Tarmiya, Salahaddin	23	26
May 11
May 12	Sadoun St & Tahrir Sq, Baghdad	14	37
May 13
May 14	Dulab x9 & Jubba x2, Anbar	6	54
Totals	22	73	206
May 15	Ramadi x11, Anbar	10	7
May 16	Fallujah & Ramadi, Anbar Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	8
May 17	Ramadi x7, Anbar Shurta, Baghdad	17	35
May 18
May 19	Haswar, Anbar Abu Ghraib, Baghdad	8	14
May 20
May 21
Totals	24	43	56
May 22	Barwana x4 & Haditha x2, Anbar
May 23
May 24	Assad Air Base, Anbar Baquba x2, Diyala		3
May 25
May 26	Fallujah x3 & Garma, Anbar Baiji, Salahaddin	28	9
May 27	Garma x4, Anbar	30
May 28	Jadriya x2, Baghdad	15	42
Totals	20	73	54
May 29
May 30
May 31
TOTAL	77	284	439

Month	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Jan	45	151	257
Feb	52	221	446
Mar	63	135	399
Apr	67	224	524
May	77	284	439

Each month of 2015 has seen an increase in the number of successful vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). In January there were 45. Then 52 in February, 63 in March, 67 in April, and 77 in May. Last month there were three waves of three or more straight days of car bombs, which was the most so far this year. 18 were used in Anbar, which was the main battlefront during the month. After that Baghdad was second with 9 as IS has returned to terrorist attacks upon civilians there. 8 were used in Salahaddin against government forces, and then three in Diyala targeting mosques and civilians. During May 23 out of 37 targets were military ones, compared to just 18 out of 48 in April. In the latter month the priority was striking Baghdad, but last month IS was focused upon taking Ramadi and the Baiji Refinery and deployed most of its VBIEDs to those locations. IS has been picking up its car bombings to make up for its losses on the battlefield. That has led to multiple VBIED attacks upon the security forces to take hard targets such as the government complex and Anbar Operations Command during the assault on Ramadi, and regular car bombings on places like restaurants and places of worship to cause as many civilian casualties as possible. The increase shows that IS still has plenty of explosives available and has rebuilt its networks in central Iraq after some of them were disrupted earlier in the year.

Ninewa’s Governor Nujafi Dismissed By Iraq’s Parliament

Ninewa’s Governor Atheel Nujafi was dismissed from office at the end of May 2015. Parliament voted him out using the provincial powers law over a number of issues including his recent trip to the United States, corruption, and alleged ties to the insurgency. Nujafi first came into office in 2009 when his al-Hadbaa party swept into power. Since then he has steadily lost support topped off by him having to flee Mosul in the face of the Islamic State’s 2014 onslaught. His fall from grave was due to his unpopular policies, opposition to Prime Minister Haider Abadi, and a declining base.

On May 28, 2015 the Iraqi parliament voted to dismiss Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi. That was approved by Prime Minister Haider Abadi who originally requested the move. The premier’s office gave several reasons why Nujafi was voted out. That included corruption charges, visiting the United States without telling the provincial council, telling the council to cut ties with Baghdad, threatening council members who did not agree with him, sectarian comments to the media, and advocating working with the insurgency. Nujafi’s main foreign patron Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan talked with Speaker of Parliament Salim Jabouri and Vice President Osama Nujafi, while the governor responded by saying that he would not give up his post until he got an official letter announcing his removal. He added that State of Law plotted against him because he would not agree to allow the Hashd al-Shaabi join the plan to free Mosul, but also mentioned his trip to the United States was also a cause. Nujafi was right, it was Prime Minister Abadi from State of Law that pushed his dismissal, and his visit to America did play a major role along with other issues.

Governor Nujafi’s policies were the main reason for his fall. Earlier in May he went to Washington D.C. where he advocated for turning Ninewa into a region, and that the United States should directly arm Sunnis in the provinces. Back in Baghdad Atheel along with his brother Osama have been using their Mutahidun party to block passage of the National Guard and Accountability and Justice bills. On the former Mutahidun wants the new forces to be under local control rather than the prime minister and on the latter they claim the reforms to the deBaathification process do not go far enough. Finally, the governor is seen as being dependent upon Turkey and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which has cost it support in Baghdad and with other Sunni parties. President Erdogan was an opponent of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki leading Ankara to push Sunni federalism via Mutahidun and the KDP’s Kurdish independence drive both of which raised opposition from Shiite parties. Finally, Nujafi originally came to power in 2009 with his anti-Kurdish and Arab nationalist al-Hadbaa party. By 2013 his position within Ninewa had deteriorated so much that he was forced to cut a deal with the KDP to stay in office for a second term. This again angered many of the people he originally appealed to back in 2009. Finally, the governor’s brother Vice President Najafi talked about working with the Naqshibandi and Army of the Mujahedeen to help retake Mosul from the Islamic State back in 2014 giving rise to charges that the Nujafi’s had connections to the insurgency. All together the governor had become widely unpopular both within Ninewa and in Baghdad for the stances that he took and the alliances that he made. That increasingly raised the ire of the prime minister with the visit to America probably being the last straw leading to the dismissal request.

Governor Nujafi’s faltering standing in Iraq was what led to him losing his position. At one time the governor appeared to be a rising star as a new Sunni leader after this 2009 victory in Ninewa. Since then he has become increasingly marginalized due to his policies. Going to the United States sealed Nujafi’s fate. There was no way that Abadi was going to allow a governor to go to one of Iraq’s prime allies to lobby for policies that undercut Baghdad’s. Nujafi has not stepped down yet so this drama may drag on for a while, but his time appears to be up.

SOURCES

AIN, “Atheel sticks to Nineveh Governor’s post, rejects involving PMF in liberating Nineveh,” 5/29/15

- “Erdogan has extensive contacts with al-Jubouri and Najafi to reverse the sacking of the governor of Nineveh,” 5/28/15

Al Forat, “PM approves dismissing Governor of Nineveh,” 5/28/15

Al Masalah, “Najafi, leader of Mosul to expel Daash from the city,” 8/1/14

- “What are the reasons for the dismissal of Ethel Nujaifi?” 5/29/15

Sotaliraq, “Najafi attributes the reason for his dismissal to “refusing to engage the popular crowd” in the liberation of Mosul,” 5/28/15

Stein, Aaron, “Turkey’s Weakness in Iraq Tied to Weakness in Nujaifi,” Atlantic Council, 5/26/15

Taylor, Guy, “U.S. must alter arms flow to retake Mosul from Islamic Tate, Sunni lawmaker warns,” Washington Times, 5/13/15

War Media, “Nujaifi urges US to convert Nineveh to region,” 5/12/15