Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Despite A Drop In Attacks Casualties Remain High In Iraq In 2015


Two contradictory trends have been occurring in Iraq this year. First, the number of reported security incidents have been slowly going down. That hasn’t had any real effect upon casualties however, which have remained relatively the same for the last five months. This has been due to mass executions and a new wave of car bombs. May 2015 was a perfect example of these on going security issues.

There has been a slow decline in the number of attacks in Iraq. In January there were 815 incidents. Over the next three months attacks went down to just over 600 per month. Then in May there were 578. That month there were probably many more then what is usually missed because the media was so caught up in the fall of Ramadi security reporting on the rest of the country dramatically fell off. Still the average number of attacks showed a steady decline in violence. So far there has been an average of 26.2 per day in January, 23.3 in February, 22.2 in March, 21.1 in April, and 18.6 in May.

The drop in attacks did not have a corresponding affect upon casualties, which have remained high. In February there was a dip with 1,730 reported deaths. All the other months of this year there have been over 2,000 killed. In January there was 2,308 fatalities, 2,459 in March, 2,212 in April, and 2,416 in May. The number of wounded has been around the same level as well with 2,895 in January, 2,683 in February, 2,371 in March, 2,625 in April, and 1,898 in May. In total, that averaged out to 167.8 casualties per day in January, 157.6 in February, 155.8 in March, 161.2 in April, before going down to 139.1 in May. Again, because media coverage was poor last month that might be the reason why casualties went down. The reason why there have been so many casualties despite the attack figures has been executions, the discovery of mass graves, and the increasing use of car bombs. May was a perfect example with IS killing 638 civilians, Iraqi Security Force (ISF) members, and sahwa in Anbar after it took Ramadi. The actual number of dead and wounded is much higher as the authorities are not reporting most of their losses. It is likely that thousands and thousands of people have been injured and killed over the past year and never been recorded.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
184
434
464
Jan 8-14
170
730
493
Jan 15-21
182
390
515
Jan 22-28
189
466
894
Jan 29-31
90
288
529
JAN
815
2,308
2,895
Feb 1-7
155
380
688
Feb 8-14
170
406
559
Feb 15-21
165
573
364
Feb 22-28
165
371
687 + 386
FEB
655
1,730
2,683
Mar 1-7
172
372
587
Mar 8-14
133
348
656
Mar 15-21
142
1,299
503
Mar 22-28
170
235
406
Mar 29-31
72
205
219
MAR
689
2,459 + 4
2,371 + 150
Apr 1-7
121
212
422
Apr 8-14
133
626
525
Apr 15-21
169
722
714
Apr 22-28
160
483
483
Apr 29-30
50
162 + 7
182 + 299
APR
633
2,212
2,625
May 1-7
154
626
450
May 8-14
154
420
549
May 15-21
124
963
387
May 22-28
108
341 + 1,499
348
May 29-31
38
66
164 + 646
MAY
578
2,416 + 1,499
1,898 + 646

Violence In Iraq By Province April-May 2015
Province
April
May
Anbar
142 Incidents
872 Killed: 322 ISF, 1 Hashd, 4 Sahwa, 538 Civilians
832 Wounded: 148 ISF, 1 Hashd, 31 Sahwa, 353 Civilians
92 Shootings
9 IEDs
7 Suicide Bombers
21 Suicide Car Bombs
7 Car Bombs
16 Mortars
2 Rockets
150 Incidents
1,232 Killed: 413 ISF, 39 Hashd, 42 Sahwa, 738 Civilians
574 Wounded: 228 ISF, 24 Hashd, 26 Sahwa, 738 Civilians
94 Shootings
27 IEDs
24 Suicide Bombers
47 Suicide Car Bombs
5 Car Bombs
12 Mortars
5 Rockets
Babil
20 Incidents
36 Killed: 11 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 19 Civilians
78 Wounded: 18 ISF, 60 Civilians
3 Shootings
14 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
2 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
15 Incidents
11 Killed: 2 ISF, 9 Civilians
49 Wounded: 10 ISF, 5 Hashd, 34 Civilians
2 Shootings
9 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
1 Sound Bomb
Baghdad
217 Incidents
392 Killed: 18 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 9 Hashd, 359 Civilians
1,160 Wounded: 39 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 20 Hashd, 1,091 Civilians
37 Shootings
118 IEDs
24 Sticky Bombs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Suicide Car Bomb
23 Car Bombs
3 Mortars
2 Rockets
1 Grenade
213 Incidents
343 Killed: 11 ISF, 1 Hashd, 11 Sahwa, 320 Civilians
816 Wounded: 45 ISF, 11 Hashd, 18 Sahwa, 742 Civilians
73 Shootings
106 IEDs
22 Sticky Bombs
3 Suicide Car Bombs
8 Car Bombs
3 Mortars
1 Rockets
Basra
2 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 ISF
1 Shooting
3 Incidents
8 Killed: 8 Civilians
4 Wounded: 4 Civilians
3 Shootings
Dhi Qar
-
1 Incident
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
1 Wounded: 1 Civilian
1 IED
Diyala
57 Incidents
81 Killed: 18 ISF, 3 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 57 Civilians
150 Wounded: 30 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 74 Hashd, 36 Civilians
28 Shootings
17 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
2 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
2 Rockets
47 Incidents
134 Killed: 13 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 1 Sahwa, 119 Civilians
109 Wounded: 15 ISF, 3 Asayesh, 91 Civilians
16 Shootings
22 IEDs
4 Sticky Bombs
1 Suicide Bomber
2 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Car Bombs
Irbil
1 Incident
5 Killed: 5 Civilians
17 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 15 Civilians
1 Car Bomb
-
Kirkuk
23 Incidents
102 Killed: 2 ISF, 10 Hashd, 18 Peshmerga, 72 Civilians
170 Wounded: 8 ISF, 39 Peshmerga, 94 Hashd, 29 Civilians
14 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Suicide Car Bomb
2 Mortars
1 Rockets
28 Incidents
46 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 Hashd, 5 Peshmerga, 39 Civilians
24 Wounded: 10 Peshmerga, 14 Civilians
13 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Mortar
Maysan
2 Incidents
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
2 Shootings
-
Najaf
-
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Ninewa
54 Incidents
97 Killed: 9 ISF, 2 YPG, 4 Hashd, 20 Peshmerga, 62 Civilians
25 Wounded: 6 Peshmerga, 19 Civilians
35 Shootings
24 IEDs
1 Artillery
45 Incidents
380 Killed: 2 ISF, 7 Peshmerga, 371 Civilians
2 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga
19 Shootings
46 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin
115 Incidents
624 Killed: 110 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 67 Hashd, 437 Civilians
193 Wounded: 72 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 49 Hashd, 70 Civilians
83 Shootings
17 IEDs
7 Suicide Bombers
5 Suicide Car Bombs
4 Car Bombs
5 Mortars
1 Grenade
75 Incidents
259 Killed: 173 ISF, 22 Hashd, 64 Civilians
319 Wounded: 192 ISF, 43 Hashd, 84 Civilians
35 Shootings
26 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
9 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Car Bomb
3 Mortars
1 Rockets

Car Bombs In Iraq May 2015
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
May 1



May 2
Garma, Anbar
Karrada x2, Baghdad
29
66
May 3



May 4
Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin
3
5
May 5
Garma, Anbar
Karrada, Baghdad
6
13
May 6



May 7
Baiji x2, Dour, Hamrin x2, Salahaddin
57
39
Totals
11
95
123
May 8
Baladrooz & Kanaan, Diyala
22
59
May 9
Karrada, Baghdad
8
30
May 10
Fallujah x3, Anbar
Shaab, Baghdad
Taji & Tarmiya, Salahaddin
23
26
May 11



May 12
Sadoun St & Tahrir Sq, Baghdad
14
37
May 13



May 14
Dulab x9 & Jubba x2, Anbar
6
54
Totals
22
73
206
May 15
Ramadi x11, Anbar
10
7
May 16
Fallujah & Ramadi, Anbar
Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin
8

May 17
Ramadi x7, Anbar
Shurta, Baghdad
17
35
May 18



May 19
Haswar, Anbar
Abu Ghraib, Baghdad
8
14
May 20



May 21



Totals
24
43
56
May 22
Barwana x4 & Haditha x2, Anbar


May 23



May 24
Assad Air Base, Anbar
Baquba x2, Diyala

3
May 25



May 26
Fallujah x3 & Garma, Anbar
Baiji, Salahaddin
28
9
May 27
Garma x4, Anbar
30

May 28
Jadriya x2, Baghdad
15
42
Totals
20
73
54
May 29



May 30



May 31



TOTAL
77
284
439

Month
Car Bombs
Dead
Wounded
Jan
45
151
257
Feb
52
221
446
Mar
63
135
399
Apr
67
224
524
May
77
284
439

Each month of 2015 has seen an increase in the number of successful vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). In January there were 45. Then 52 in February, 63 in March, 67 in April, and 77 in May. Last month there were three waves of three or more straight days of car bombs, which was the most so far this year. 18 were used in Anbar, which was the main battlefront during the month. After that Baghdad was second with 9 as IS has returned to terrorist attacks upon civilians there. 8 were used in Salahaddin against government forces, and then three in Diyala targeting mosques and civilians. During May 23 out of 37 targets were military ones, compared to just 18 out of 48 in April. In the latter month the priority was striking Baghdad, but last month IS was focused upon taking Ramadi and the Baiji Refinery and deployed most of its VBIEDs to those locations. IS has been picking up its car bombings to make up for its losses on the battlefield. That has led to multiple VBIED attacks upon the security forces to take hard targets such as the government complex and Anbar Operations Command during the assault on Ramadi, and regular car bombings on places like restaurants and places of worship to cause as many civilian casualties as possible. The increase shows that IS still has plenty of explosives available and has rebuilt its networks in central Iraq after some of them were disrupted earlier in the year.

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