Fight For Iraq’s Anbar And Salahaddin, 4th Week of May 2015

For the fourth week of May 2015 the Islamic State (IS) and government forces were fighting for control of Anbar and Salahaddin province. The week before IS swept into Ramadi after struggling to take the Anbar provincial capital for seventeen months. The Hashd al-Shaabi announced a joint campaign to clear out both that governorate and Salahaddin.

The attention on Anbar and Salahaddin led to another week where there were very few attacks reported in the media. From May 22-28 there were only 109 incidents, the fewest in the last seventeen months. Baghdad had the most incidents with 36. Next was Anbar with 32, Diyala with 14, Salahaddin with 11, Ninewa with 7, Kirkuk with 6, Babil 2, and Dhi Qar with 1. Again, for the last two weeks the media has been focused upon the fighting in Anbar, which has led to less reporting on the rest of the country accounting for the low figures.

Musings On Iraq counted 341 killed and 348 wounded for the week. There was an additional report on peshmerga losses since June 2014 that after subtracting those already in the media added another 1,499 deaths. The week’s fatalities consisted of 3 sahwa, 7 peshmerga, 7 Hashd al-Shaabi, 83 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 241 civilians. The wounded were made up of 1 peshmerga, 8 sahwa, 10 Hashd, 99 ISF, and 230 civilians. Because of the fighting in Anbar it had the most fatalities with 221. Next was Baghdad with 59, Salahaddin with 30, Ninewa with 15, Diyala with 7, Kirkuk 5, and Babil and Dhi Qar with 2 each.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	142	1,299	503
Mar 22-28	170	235	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	689	2,459 + 4	2,371 + 150
Apr 1-7	121	212	422
Apr 8-14	133	626	525
Apr 15-21	169	722	714
Apr 22-28	160	483	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	633	2,212	2,625
May 1-7	154	626	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348

Violence In Iraq By Province May 2015

Province	May 1-7	May 8-14
Anbar	34 Incidents 75 Killed: 21 ISF, 30 Hashd, 24 Civilians 103 Wounded: 54 ISF, 49 Civilians 15 Shootings 19 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Mortars 2 Rockets	36 Incidents 74 Killed: 16 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 9 Hashd, 47 Civilians 176 Wounded: 62 ISF, 7 Hashd, 26 Sahwa, 81 Civilians 26 Shootings 14 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Mortars
Babil	-	8 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 20 Wounded: 5 Hashd, 15 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb
Baghdad	68 Incidents 105 Killed: 3 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 101 Civilians 234 Wounded: 7 ISF, 5 Sahwa, 222 Civilians 28 Shootings 28 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Car Bombs 1 Rockets	46 Incidents 99 Killed: 2 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 94 Civilians 218 Wounded: 9 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 207 Civilians 15 Shootings 22 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb 3 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Basra	1 Incident 1 Shooting	-
Diyala	9 Incidents 23 Killed: 3 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 19 Civilians 23 Wounded: 8 ISF, 3 Asayesh, 12 Civilians 4 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	18 Incidents 89 Killed: 10 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 78 Civilians 66 Wounded: 7 ISF, 59 Civilians 7 Shootings 5 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 2 Suicide Car Bombs
Kirkuk	9 Incidents 10 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 1 Hashd, 8 Civilians 17 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga, 13 Civilians 4 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Mortar	7 Incidents 13 Killed: 4 Peshmerga, 9 Civilians 6 Wounded: 5 Peshmerga, 1 Civilian 4 Shootings 1 IED
Ninewa	11 Incidents 342 Killed: 324 Civilians 5 Shootings 25 IEDs	17 Incidents 26 Killed: 2 ISF, 24 Civilians 2 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga 8 Shootings 20 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin	22 Incidents 89 Killed: 79 ISF, 8 Hashd, 2 Civilians 73 Wounded: 54 ISF, 10 Hashd, 9 Civilians	22 Incidents 113 Killed: 61 ISF, 52 Civilians 61 Wounded: 32 ISF, 8 Hashd, 21 Civilians 13 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb 1 Mortar

Province	May 15-21	May 22-28
Anbar	46 Incidents 848 Killed: 321 ISF, 40 Sahwa, 488 Civilians 186 Wounded: 129 ISF, 57 Civilians 30 Shootings 8 IEDs 19 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 5 Mortars 2 Rockets	31 Incidents 221 Killed: 56 ISF, 165 Civilians 33 Wounded: 33 Civilians 23 Shootings 23 Suicide Bombers 12 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs 1 Rocket
Babil	2 Incidents 3 Killed: 3 Civilians 11 Wounded: 11 Civilians 2 IEDs	2 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 ISF 4 Wounded: 4 ISF 1 Shooting 1 IED
Baghdad	44 Incidents 51 Killed: 4 ISF, 1 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 43 Civilians 108 Wounded: 20 ISF, 3 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 82 Civilians 17 Shootings 18 IEDs 7 Sticky Bobs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb 1 Mortar	36 Incidents 59 Killed: 1 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 55 Civilians 194 Wounded: 6 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 8 Hashd, 172 Civilians 8 Shootings 27 IEDs 8 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs
Basra	2 Incidents 7 Killed: 7 Civilians 4 Wounded: 4 Civilians 2 Shootings	-
Dhi Qar	-	1 Incident 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 IED
Diyala	5 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 6 Wounded: 6 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs	14 Incidents 7 Killed: 7 Civilians 14 Wounded: 14 Civilians 4 Shootings 12 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Car Bombs
Kirkuk	4 Incidents 16 Killed: 16 Civilians 1 Sticky Bomb	6 Incidents 5 Killed: 1 ISF, 4 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga 3 Shootings 2 IEDs
Ninewa	8 Incidents 12 Killed: 12 Civilians 3 Shootings	7 Incidents 15 Killed: 7 Peshmerga, 8 Civilians 2 Shootings 1 IED
Salahaddin	12 Incidents 19 Killed: 10 ISF, 9 Civilians 65 Wounded: 13 ISF, 8 Hashd, 44 Civilians 3 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Mortar 1 Rockets	11 Incidents 30 Killed: 23 ISF, 7 Hashd 101 Wounded: 89 ISF, 2 Hashd, 10 Civilians 4 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb

Car Bombs In Iraq May 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
May 1
May 2	Garma, Anbar Karrada x2, Baghdad	29	66
May 3
May 4	Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	3	5
May 5	Garma, Anbar Karrada, Baghdad	6	13
May 6
May 7	Baiji x2, Dour, Hamrin x2, Salahaddin	57	39
Totals	11	95	123
May 8	Baladrooz & Kanaan, Diyala	22	59
May 9	Karrada, Baghdad	8	30
May 10	Fallujah x3, Anbar Shaab, Baghdad Taji & Tarmiya, Salahaddin	23	26
May 11
May 12	Sadoun St & Tahrir Sq, Baghdad	14	37
May 13
May 14	Dulab x9 & Jubba x2, Anbar	6	54
Totals	22	73	206
May 15	Ramadi x11, Anbar	10	7
May 16	Fallujah & Ramadi, Anbar Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	8
May 17	Ramadi x7, Anbar Shurta, Baghdad	17	35
May 18
May 19	Haswar, Anbar Abu Ghraib, Baghdad	8	14
May 20
May 21
Totals	24	43	56
May 22	Barwana x4 & Haditha x2, Anbar
May 23
May 24	Assad Air Base, Anbar Baquba x2, Diyala		3
May 25
May 26	Fallujah x3 & Garma, Anbar Baiji, Salahaddin	28	9
May 27	Garma x4, Anbar	30
May 28	Jadiriya x2, Baghdad	15	42
Totals	20	73	54

The number of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) went down from 24 the previous week to 20. There have been a total of 77 car bombs so far. That passed April’s 67 and is the most seen in one month this year. Anbar has been the main target with 21 the third week of May and 15 the next. There were also two car bombs a piece in Baghdad and Diyala, and one more in Salahaddin from May 22-28. 73 people were killed and 54 injured by these VBIEDs, but the real numbers were much higher as no casualties were reported for many of these attacks. The Islamic State has picked up these types of attacks as it attempts to make up for losses on the battlefield using them both in tactical strikes upon the government forces like in Anbar as well as a new wave of terrorist bombings on civilians in Baghdad.

Anbar remained the main battlefield in Iraq. After taking Ramadi IS continued pushing east seizing Husaiba and Albu Fahad on May 22, while threatening Khalidiya and Baghdadi. For example, on May 24 IS used 20 suicide bombers followed by an infantry assault upon that last town. The government responded by taking back Husaiba on May 23 as it pushed towards Ramadi. By May 25 government forces reached Anbar University outside of the city, and the next day the official operation to retake the city was announced by the spokesman for the Hashd. On May 28 the ISF, tribes and Hashd were attacking from three directions. There were also clearing operations in the Thar Thar area to the north where IS recently took three army bases, and in Garma where IS tried to push back by with 5 suicide car bombs against the ISF. Taking Ramadi will not be easy. First off there are still plenty of civilians there, which IS might use as human shields. The insurgents will also use their usual tactics of mass IEDs and snipers to hold up the attacking forces. Finally, the militants might be able to fade back into the population rather than fight to the end since it has plenty of hideouts in the city as they have been operating there for over a year and a half. That might mean that the government forces will be able to re-enter Ramadi, but may not establish control over all of it.

Attacks in Baghdad have been steadily going down after a sharp spike in April. The first week of April there were 44 incidents. Then there were 36 from April 8-14, followed by 50 April 15-21, topping off with 66 April 22-28. In the last two days of the month there were 21 attacks. That was followed by 68 May 1-7, before going down to 46 May 8-14, 45 May 15-21, and then 36 May 22-28. Casualties have gone down as well from 339 dead and wounded the first week of the month to 253 the last week of May.

Every other week there has been a jump in attacks in Diyala. The first week of May there were 9 attacks mostly consisting of shootings. Then that doubled the next week with a suicide bomber and two suicide car bombs. May 15-21 incidents went back down to 5, and then 14 the following week with another 2 car bombs. The Islamic State is obviously picking up its operations in the province, but it is still below previous levels.

Violence has been at a very low level in Kirkuk, but the new trend is extrajudicial killings. During the last week of May an imam and a government worker were found shot. The week before three bodies were dumped. The second week of May four bodies were discovered, and then four the first week. Whelan has been the main location for these murders, but they have occurred in other areas as well. It’s not clear what the purpose of these targeted killings are yet, but they are a new occurrence.

Salahaddin was the other major battlefront as the government was focused upon retaking the Baiji refinery and surrounding area. It is now apparent that IS attacked the facility to draw the Baghdad’s attention, while it was planning to take Ramadi. According to Iraq Oil Report, IS fighters began pulling out of the refinery the day Ramadi was taken. The stay behind force then set about blowing up as much of the infrastructure as possible. It’s now estimated that it might take up to five years or more to rebuild the refinery that once produced up to one-third of the country’s fuel production. During the last week of May the government had broken the siege of the refinery and was concentrating on kicking out the militants from the district. There were also new operations launched in Shirqat, Dujail, and Ishaqi in the very north and south of the province.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, "Eight bomb blasts rock Iraq's Diyala province," 5/24/15

BBC, "Islamic State suicide bombings kill troops in Iraq's Anbar," 5/27/15

Damon, Arwa, Hanna, Jason, and Alkhshali, Hamdi, "Iraqis launch counter-attack against ISIS near Ramadi," CNN, 5/23/15

Daragahi, Borzou and Solomon, Eika, “Iraq launches operation to retake Ramadi from Isis,” Financial Times, 5/26/15

Al Forat, "PMU achieves first victory in Ramadi, liberates Hasibah," 5/23/15,

Iraq Oil Report, “Baiji refinery devastated by IS scorched earth tactics,” 5/26/15

Al Mada, "Anbar Council: Daash dominates Albu Fahd and Husaiba east of Ramadi, the situation in other regions is very dangerous," 5/22/15

- "Cleared parts of Anbar University and the killing of 18 Daash south of Ramadi," 5/25/15,

Naji, Jamal and Van Heuvelen, Ben, "After seizing Ramadi, IS presses Anbar campaign," Iraq Oil Report, 5/23/15

NINA, "Urgent…..Suicide Bombing Kill 11, Wound 9 Others Of The Federal Police In Baiji," 5/26/15

Radio Free Iraq, "24 May 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 5/24/15

- “28 May 2015,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 5/28/15

Al Rafidayn, "Ameri announces freeing Jabber facility lifting the siege on ninety trapped soldiers," 5/28/15,

Reuters, “Islamic State fighters overrun Iraqi govt lines east of Ramadi,” 5/21/15

Shafaq News, "Dozens of dead in suicide attacks and clashes near al-Karma," 5/27/15

- "The fight in Haditha and detonation of two car bombs," 5/22/15

- "A local official: 150 terrorists, including 20 suicide bombers, carried out Al-Baghdadi attack," 5/24/15

Yacoub, Sameer, "Iraqi authorities raise death toll from Baghdad hotel car bombings to 15," Associated Press, 5/29/15

Yeranian, Edward, "Suicide Bombings Kill Pro-Iraq Forces in Anbar," Voice of America, 5/27/15