Violence On the Decline In Iraq

June saw a slight uptick in attacks in Iraq, but casualties were lower than May. The majority of the violence during the month was in Baghdad, Anbar, and Salahaddin, which has been true for most of the year. There were also a large number of fatalities in Ninewa due to Islamic State executions. Overall, attacks have been steadily going down after the start of the year.

Musings On Iraq counted 622 security incidents in June 2015. At the start of the month attacks were relatively low, but then began increasing towards the end, especially during the fourth week. There were an average of 20.7 attacks per day, which was up from 18.6 per day in May, but below the figures for the rest of the year, which saw 26.3 in January, 23.3 in February, 22.2 in March, and 21.1 in April, which shows a downward trend. Many attacks go unreported so the real numbers are much higher.

As usual, Baghdad, Anbar and Salahaddin saw the most incidents. Baghdad had 229 during the month. Anbar had 157 and Salahaddin 93. Anbar has been the main focus of the Islamic State for the last year, and it has recently picked up attacks in Baghdad as well. On the other hand, the government has been spending most of its time in Salahaddin. After those three provinces there were 48 attacks in Ninewa, 42 in Diyala, 24 in Babil, 18 in Kirkuk, 7 in Basra, and one each in Karbala, Muthanna, Najaf, and Wasit. In Karbala and Najaf the security forces discovered car bombs and successful disarmed them before they exploded. In Muthanna a house was burned, and in Wasit a man was shot and killed. The Karbala and Najaf incidents showed that IS was still trying to hit the south with mass casualty car bombs, but has not been successful for several months now.

The press reported 1,804 killed and 2,012 wounded during the month. The former was made up of 4 Peshmerga, 60 Sahwa, 136 Hashd al-Shaabi, 406 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 1,198 civilians. The latter consisted of 17 Peshmerga, 25 Sahwa, 157 Hashd, 308 ISF, and 1,505 civilians. Overall, that was 3,816 casualties, which was lower than May’s 4,314 despite the increase in attacks. The number of dead and injured is being grossly under reported because the Iraqi government does not want to be open about its losses fearing that it would hurt morale. There are probably thousands and thousands of casualties that have been kept secret as a result.

The deadliest governorates were not the ones with the most attacks. Anbar had 552 deaths. After that was Ninewa with 446. That was because 80 Yazidi bodies were found in a mass grave in Badush at the start of June, and 70 soldiers in a mass grave in Tal Afar in the middle of the month. The Islamic State executed another 234 people, mostly in Mosul. Then there were 323 killed in Baghdad, 200 in Salahaddin, 133 in Kirkuk, 87 in Diyala, 35 in Babil, 5 in Basra, and one in Wasit. Kirkuk has been relatively quiet for months now, but a grave with 125 bodies was found in a warehouse used by IS in Hawija in the middle of the month accounting for the high casualty rate there.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	142	1,299	503
Mar 22-28	170	235	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	689	2,459 + 4	2,371 + 150
Apr 1-7	121	212	422
Apr 8-14	133	626	525
Apr 15-21	169	722	714
Apr 22-28	160	483	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	633	2,212	2,625
May 1-7	154	626	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,416 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	132	431	476
Jun 8-14	126	522 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122	189
JUN	622	1,804	2,012

Violence In Iraq June 2015 By Province

Province	Attacks	Dead	Wounded	Type
Anbar	157	552 40 Sahwa 50 Hashd 158 ISF 304 Civilians	585 4 Sahwa 31 Hashd 116 ISF 434 Civilians	85 Shootings 6 IEDs 7 Suicide Bombers 13 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 1 Artillery 15 Mortars 5 Rockets 1 Missiles 34 Suicide Bombers Killed 12 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	24	35 1 Hashd 3 Sahwa 7 ISF 24 Civilians	100 3 Sahwa 6 ISF 7 Hashd 84 Civilians	2 Shootings 18 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb
Baghdad	229	323 2 Hashd 14 Sahwa 23 ISF 284 Civilians	804 2 Hashd 18 Sahwa 49 ISF 735 Civilians	61 Shootings 108 IEDs 27 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs 6 Car Bombs 2 Grenades 2 Mortars 7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Basra	7	5 5 Civilians	4 4 Civilians	5 Shootings 2 IEDs
Diyala	42	87 1 Peshmerga 3 Sahwa 4 Hashd 6 ISF 73 Civilians	157 2 Hashd 7 ISF 148 Civilians	10 Shootings 22 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Karbala	1			7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Kirkuk	18	133 1 ISF 2 Peshmerga 130 Civilians	44 12 ISF 14 Peshmerga 18 Civilians	5 Shootings 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Rockets 2 Grenades
Muthanna	1
Najaf	1			1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
Ninewa	48	446 114 ISF 332 Civilians	16 16 Civilians	27 Shootings 70 IEDs 1 Mortar 8 Suicide Bombers Killed
Salahaddin	93	200 1 Peshmerga 75 ISF 45 Civilians 79 Hashd	258 3 Peshmerga 74 ISF 66 Civilians 115 Hashd	42 Shootings 22 IEDs 8 Suicide Bombers 6 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 5 Mortars 1 Rockets 1 Grenades 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 31 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 12 Car Bombs Destroyed
Wasit	1	1 1 Civilian		1 Shooting

Car Bombs In Iraq, June 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1	Fallujah & Thar Thar x3, Anbar	58	57
Jun 2	Palestine St, Baghdad	6	13
Jun 3
Jun 4	Thar Thar, Anbar Baya, Baghdad	5	14
Jun 5
Jun 6	Baladrooz, Diyala	14	37
Jun 7
Totals	8	83	121
Jun 8
Jun 9	Palestine St, Baghdad	10	24
Jun 10	Shula, Baghdad	6	20
Jun 11
Jun 12	Baiji x2, Salahaddin	8	20
Jun 13	Garma x4 & Haiyakil x2, Anbar Hijjaj x4, Salahaddin	42	49
Jun 14	Baghdadi x2, Anbar Shaab, Baghdad	3	10
Totals	17	69	123
Jun 15
Jun 16
Jun 17	Kadhimiya, Baghdad	7	16
Jun 18
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Totals	1	7	16
Jun 22	Nukhaib, Anbar	2	8
Jun 23
Jun 24	Mandali, Diyala	16	22
Jun 25	Shaab, Baghdad	6	16
Jun 26	Baiji, Salahaddin	3	5
Jun 27	Karrada, Baghdad	5	13
Jun 28
Totals	5	32	64
Jun 29
Jun 30
GRAND TOTAL	31	191	324

There were just 31 successfully detonated vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in June. That was the lowest amount since 21 in December. In the second week IS launched 67 car bombs, the vast majority of which were destroyed. After that IS seemed to have used up its ready-made stockpiles with just 6 going off over the next sixteen days. This was a change in tactics as IS had been using more VBIEDs each month since January.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "Buried 125 unidentified bodies that were recovered from the warehouse site in Hawija, Kirkuk," 6/14/15

eKurd, "Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - June 1, 2015," 6/1/15

Rudaw, "Mass grave found in Tal Afar and several homes detonated in Mosul," 6/22/15

Number Of Displaced In Iraq Passes 3 Million Mark

The on going fighting in Iraq has now displaced over three million people. Not only have they lost their homes, but their plight is also made more difficult by a number of other issues. That includes the government not letting people return to certain areas and facing prejudice, while the official agencies in charge of providing them aid have continuously been charged with corruption. That leads many of these people to fend for themselves, and some will likely never be able to go back to their homes.

In June 2015 it was announced that the number of displaced in Iraq had surpassed three million people. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) counted 3,087,372 people who had lost their homes by the middle of June. The last major displacement occurred in Anbar after the Islamic State (IS) seized the provincial capital of Ramadi in the middle of May. The IOM said over 276,330 people fled the city from April to the middle of June. According to the group, Anbar has the most displaced with 1,162,998, followed by 1,052,016 from Ninewa, and 453,054 from Salahaddin. The United Nations noted that Dohuk is the home to the most displaced with more than 200,000 people, followed by Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa with 100,000-200,000 displaced each, and then Baghdad and Najaf with 50,000-100,000 each. The real number of people who have lost their homes is much higher. Many do not register with the government or aid groups for a number of reasons including squatting illegally in areas and entering provinces without official approval.

According to a U.N. timeline there were 87,630 families displaced in June 2014 when IS seized Mosul, Tikrit, and parts of Kirkuk province. That quickly grew to over 196,000 families by September, before almost doubling to 353,890 families at the end of the year after further insurgent successes in taking most of Anbar. By February 2015 there were over 422,000 families that had lost their homes, finally passing the 500,000 mark in June.

The plight of the displaced has been complicated by government polices, discrimination, and corruption. First, pro-Baghdad forces have not allowed people to return to some areas. Places like Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil, Jalawla and Sadiya in Diyala, and others remain empty of people months after they were freed from the Islamic State. The reasons vary from there still being explosive devices in the towns to political disputes over who should control the areas to tribal arguments to not trusting the locals because they are accused of being supporters of IS. That last issue has led to families from Anbar, Diyala and Ninewa being stereotyped as security threats. For example, in January Kirkuk expelled displaced people from Diyala accusing them of fomenting violence. The next month, IRIN reported on Turkmen from Tal Afar in Ninewa who were not allowed into Kurdistan because the authorities accused them of backing the Islamic State. Finally, in Baghdad people from Anbar have been blamed for bombings, face harassment from the security forces, and are often confined to certain areas. On top of that the Ministry of Migration, a special committee for refugees under Deputy Premier Salah al-Mutlaq, and other officials have been accused of stealing money meant for the displaced. These charges have gone on for months and include everything from government workers registering themselves as displaced to get aid money to refugees having to pay bribes to get help to skimming money off of goods bought for them. In one specific example, the former governor of Diyala was charged with stealing around $4.3 million meant for the displaced in his province. This all points to a breakdown in the government’s ability to serve and protect the populace. This has been driven by fears of the Islamic State that has led to the persecution of some of the displaced. At the same time, the rampant corruption within the government has denied people the money and services they are supposed to be provided. That has led the U.N. and other aid groups to provide the bulk of the assistance to the displaced. Again, these organizations don’t reach all of those that have lost their homes, and they also lack the resources to fully assist those that have registered with them because of a lack of adequate funding.

As fighting continues in Iraq more people are going to be displaced. They will join the others that are being neglected by the government due to theft and graft that steals their aid, and because some of them will be labeled as Islamic Stat backers. Some will never return to their homes, joining the over one million who never went back after the 2005-2008 civil war. International organizations such as the U.N. and IOM are strained to cope with this crisis because of the size of the catastrophe. They were already lacking money before the fall of Mosul, and that problem has only increased since then. This all adds up to a humanitarian disaster, which Iraq is proving ill prepared to deal with.

SOURCES

Abbas, Mushreq, “Displaced Iraqis still wait to return home,” Al Monitor, 6/24/15

Arango, Tim, “Sunnis Fleeing ISIS Find Few Doors Opened Elsewhere in Iraq,” New York Times, 5/27/15

International Organization for Migration, “Displacement in Iraq Tops 3 Million,” 6/23/15

Iraq News Network, “Union forces demanding Abadi remove Mutlaq from Commission on Displaced,” 5/22/15

IRIN, “Corruption disrupts government aid to Iraq’s displaced,” 10/22/14

Al-Jawoshy, Omar and Arango, Tim, “Iraqi Families Return to Fragile Stability in Tikrit After Liberation From ISIS,” New York Times, 6/22/15

Al-Kadhimi, Mustafa, “Ramadi’s displaced find restrictions, not refuge, in Baghdad,” Al Monitor 5/28/15

Al Mada, “Member of the parliamentary integrity calls for the abolition of the Commission for relief to the displaced due to corruption and return its work to another,” 11/2/14

Morris, Loveday, “Iraqi Sunni flee Anbar only to find new dangers in Baghdad,” Washington Post, 5/17/15

New Sabah, “Kirkuk to expel thousands of displaced people from Diyala and pierce their identity cards,” 1/1/15

Al Rafidayn, “Parliamentary Integrity Committee: Financial corruption within displaced commission,” 10/28/14

Rudaw, “Diyala governor accused of stealing millions in refugee money,” 3/25/15

UN High Commissioner for Refugees, “Iraq – CCCM: IDP Populations & Settlements Situation,” 6/25/15

Wolf, Mat, “No-man’s land: the Iraqis trapped between IS and the Kurds,” IRIN, 2/12/15