Lowest Reported Attacks and Casualties In Iraq Sep 2015 Due To Eid Holiday

September had the lowest recorded number of attacks and casualties in Iraq of the year. The cause was the Eid holiday, which occurred at the end of the month. The government deployed extra forces to the streets that definitely reduced violence in major cities. The main reason for the drop however was the fact that many of Iraq’s papers went on holiday for almost a week and therefore there was a huge drop in reporting on the fighting.

In September there were 573 security incidents. That passed the previous low in 2015 of 578 in May. Baghdad was the most violent with 228 attacks, followed by 102 in Anbar, 90 in Salahaddin, 64 in Ninewa, 33 in Diyala, 28 in Kirkuk, 17 in Babil, 4 in Kurdistan, 3 in Basra, 2 in Karbala and 1 each in Qadisiyah ad Wasit.

Those attacks resulted in 1,291 killed and 1,647 wounded. The dead consisted of 27 Sahwa, 53 Hashd, 56 Peshmerga, 162 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 169 fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and 824 civilians. The injured were made up of 1 Asayesh, 16 Sahwa, 59 Hashd, 167 Peshmerga, 176 ISF, and 1,228 civilians.

Ninewa was the deadliest province of the month with 319 killed. That was due to a huge number of people being executed by the Islamic State mostly in Mosul. 89 people were killed the first week of the month, 96 the next week, 45 the third week, 18 the fourth, and 34 the last two days of September for a total of 282 fatalities. Another 18 Peshmerga were killed and 14 wounded by IS attacks upon their positions in the north of the governorate.

Baghdad had 296 dead and 850 wounded. There were 7 car bombs there during the month, along with 6 more that were dismantled before they detonated. The main causes of casualties however were the 97 IEDs and 29 sticky bombs. Most of these were in the south with 65 incidents, 61 in the east, and 51 in the north. The west, 28, and center, 17, had the least violence during the month. IS has bases in the rural areas of the Baghdad governorate, and also funnels in men and explosives from Babil, Salahaddin and Diyala. Surprisingly, Anbar does not appear to be a major source of attacks into the capital, probably because IS is too busy conquering territory there.

Attacks In Baghdad Sep 2015

Center: 17 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Grenade, 1 Attempted Kidnapping, 1 Shooting, 1 Suicide Bomber, 2 Kidnappings, 3 Car Bombs Dismantled, 3 Sticky Bombs, 4 IEDs

East: 54 – 1 Body Found, 1 Robbery, 2 Car Bombs, 2 Car Bombs Dismantled, 6 Kidnappings, 7 Sticky Bombs, 17 Shootings, 18 IEDs

Outer East: 7 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Shootings, 3 IEDs

North: 37 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Shooting/Robbery,1 Rockets, 1 Stabbing, 1 Body Found, 2 Robberies, 4 Shootings, 5 Kidnappings, 8 Sticky Bombs, 13 IEDs

Outer North: 14 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Kidnappings, 2 Shootings, 9 IEDs

South: 40 –1 Stabbing, 1 Grenade, 1 Beheading, 1 Attempted Kidnapping, 2 Car Bombs, 3 Kidnappings, 3 Sticky Bombs, 8 Shootings, 19 IEDs

Outer South: 25 – 1 Grenade, 2 Sticky Bombs, 5 Shootings, 17 IEDs

West: 20 – 1 Car Bombs, 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed, 1 Rockets, 1 Shooting/Robbery, 2 Shootings, 2 Suicide Bombers, 3 Sticky Bombs, 9 IEDs

Outer West: 8 – 1 Rocket, 3 Shootings, 4 IEDs

Unknown: 3 – 1 IED, 2 Shootings

There were a reported 182 deaths and 224 injured in Anbar. Those numbers are only a fraction of the losses there. Since the government offensive began there reports of ISF shelling of Fallujah has been suppressed along with most of the losses amongst the joint forces. The real numbers may never be revealed.

Turkey continued with its air strikes into northern Kurdistan to punish the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ankara claimed it killed 169 PKK fighters in four waves of bomb runs. There was no way to confirm those numbers.

Most of the attacks in Salahaddin centered around Baiji where the government continued its attempt to retake the Baiji district along with its refinery. IS launched a huge number of suicide bombers, 16, and car bombs, 35, during the month, most of which were in Baiji. Losses were sometimes reported there, but like in Anbar most were not. There was an air strike in the district that killed 68 civilians and wounded 58. The U.S. did not announce any activity in that area so it was probably an Iraqi army attack. In total, there were 167 deaths and 214 injures in Salahaddin.

The Kurds launched a new series of attacks to clear out part of Daquq district in southern Kirkuk last month. Irbil did report some of its casualties with 38 Peshmerga killed and 153 wounded. That accounted for the high overall number of dead 72 and wounded 165 in Kirkuk, which usually only sees sporadic violence.

Diyala continued to experience a low level of violence. Most weeks there are a number of shootings and small bombings mostly in the western and central part of the province. There were also three car bombings, and one that went off while police were trying to disarm it. All together those led to 67 dead and 86 wounded for the month.

Irbil confirmed that the authorities are suppressing most of their losses. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) issued a press release that 1,300 Peshmerga were killed and 5,000 wounded in fighting against the insurgents since August 2014. Those were obviously just rough numbers and not the actual totals. Compared to what was already reported in the press the KRG admitted that it had not mentioned 314 deaths and 3,003 wounded in the last 13 months.

Finally, the Islamic State’s latest car bomb campaign continued into September. There were a total of 155 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) launched during the month. That was below August’s whopping 324 VBIEDs. The vast majority, 131, were destroyed before reaching their targets because most were targeting the security forces or Hashd and taken out by air strikes, anti-tank missiles or some other counter measure. Anbar had the most car bombs with 95, followed by 35 in Salahaddin, 13 in Baghdad, 7 in Diyala, 4 in Kirkuk, and one in Karbala. The last was significant because it showed that IS was again interested in trying to bomb the south after a hiatus. Luckily these attempts have been discovered beforehand and the VBIEDs were dismantled.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	189	466	464
Jan 8-14	172	733	518
Jan 15-21	189	403	528
Jan 22-28	195	492	899
Jan 29-31	91	306	568
JAN	836	2,400	2,977
Feb 1-7	155	408	688
Feb 8-14	177	443	566
Feb 15-21	169	592	383
Feb 22-28	171	391	705
FEB	672	1,834	2,342
Mar 1-7	176	373	595
Mar 8-14	137	398	656
Mar 15-21	146	1,304	505
Mar 22-28	174	273	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	705	2,553 + 4	2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7	127	218	422
Apr 8-14	137	676	542
Apr 15-21	172	729	717
Apr 22-28	163	497	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	649	2,282	2,346
May 1-7	154	627	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,417 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	132	431	476
Jun 8-14	126	522 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122	189
JUN	622	1,804	2,012
Jul 1-7	161	435	719
Jul 8-14	140	384	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	145	527	590
Jul 29-31	53	453 + 8	603
JUL	608	2,166	3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298
Aug 8-14	132	726	645
Aug 15-21	135	345	354
Aug 22-28	136	342	296
Aug 29-31	59	112 + 5	169
AUG	616	2,180 + 760	1,762
Sep 1-7	139	285	352
Sep 8-14	144	368	394
Sep 15-21	123	323	488
Sep 22-28	128	190	258
Sep 29-30	39	106 + 19	147 + 8
SEP	573	1,291 + 314	1,647 + 3,003

Provinces	SEP
Anbar	102 Incidents 182 Killed: 24 Sahwa, 35 Hashd, 61 ISF, 62 Civilians 224 Wounded: 10 Sahwa, 37 Hashd, 67 ISF, 110 Civilians 47 Shootings 3 IEDs 6 Suicide Bombers 11 Suicide Car Bombs 13 Mortars 1 Rocket 1 Artillery 23 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed 9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 75 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	17 Incidents 15 Killed: 15 Civilians 57 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 6 ISF, 48 Civilians 4 Shootings 10 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad	228 Incidents 296 Killed: 2 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 13 ISF, 278 Civilians 850 Wounded: 6 Sahwa, 31 ISF, 813 Civilians 48 Shootings 97 IEDs 29 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 7 Car Bombs 3 Grenades 2 Rockets 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed 5 Car Bombs Destroyed
Basra	3 Incidents 1 Wounded: 1 ISF 2 IEDs 1 Sound Bomb
Diyala	33 Incidents 67 Killed: 3 Hashd, 11 ISF, 53 Civilians 86 Wounded: 1 Asayesh, 4 Hashd, 5 ISF, 76 Civilians 15 Shootings 8 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 3 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 2 Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed 2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Karbala	2 Incidents 2 Sound Bombs 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kirkuk	28 Incidents 72 Killed: 34 Civilians, 38 Peshmerga 165 Wounded: 4 Hashd, 8 Civilians, 153 Peshmerga 9 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Mortar 1 Rocket 4 Car Bombs Destroyed
KRG	4 Incidents 169 Killed: 169 PKK 4 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	64 Incidents 319 Killed: 18 Peshmerga, 47 ISF, 254 Civilians 50 Wounded: 14 Peshmerga, 36 Civilians 27 Shootings 26 IEDs 3 Rockets 3 Mortars 1 Air Strike
Qadisiyah	1 Incident
Salahaddin	90 Incidents 167 Killed: 13 Hashd, 30 ISF, 124 Civilians 214 Wounded: 11 Hashd, 66 ISF, 137 Civilians 48 Shootings 17 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 4 Mortars 14 Suicide Bombers Killed  15 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed 17 Car Bombs Destroyed
Wasit	1 Incident 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 1 Shooting

Car Bombs In Iraq, September 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Sep 1	Haditha x3, Anbar Khalis, Diyala Sadoun St, Baghdad – 1 destroyed	16	26
Sep 2	Garma & Tal al-Mushahid, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Sep 3	Shaab & Shuhada, Baghdad Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	2	15
Sep 4	Haditha & Zoba, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Sep 5	Albu Aetha & Humaira Anbar– 5 destroyed
Sep 6	Bashir, Kirkuk – 2 destroyed
Sep 7	Albu Aetha, Anbar – 5 destroyed Karrada, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Totals	6 – 25 Destroyed	18	41
Sep 8	East of Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Sep 9	Ain Assad, East Husaiba & Husaiba, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Sep 10	Albu Soda, Anbar Jawaanh, Anbar – 1 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	9	14
Sep 11	Jaraeshi, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Sep 12	Albu Jwari, Salahaddin Anbar Univ, East Husaiba – 7 destroyed Hajaj, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed	3	8
Sep 13	Albu Aziz, Anbar East Husaiba & Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed Albu Jwari & Baiji, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed	3	5
Sep 14	Nusour Sq, Baghdad Khalis, Diyala Ain Al-Tamur, Karbala – 1 destroyed	7	19
Totals	5 – 29 Destroyed	16	46
Sep 15
Sep 16
Sep 17	Wathbah Sq, Baghdad West of Haditha, Anbar – 1 destroyed South of Tikrit, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	11	57
Sep 18	5 Kilo, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Sep 19	Baiji Refinery x2, Salahaddin Saqlawiya, Anbar – 1 destroyed Baquba, Diyala – 1 destroyed	2	5
Sep 20
Sep 21	Amin & Shuhada, Baghdad	14	55
Totals	5 - 5 Destroyed	27	117
Sep 22	Husaiba, Anbar – 1 destroyed Arboretum & Meshtal, Baghdad – 2 destroyed Siniya & Tal Abu Jarad, Salahaddin – 10 destroyed
Sep 23	Khalis, Diyala Garma, Anbar – 2 destroyed Baladrooz, Diyala – 3 destroyed	4	18
Sep 24	Tal Albu Grad, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Sep 25	Garma & ?, Anbar – 32 destroyed Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Sep 26	Garma & Rashad, Anbar – 5 destroyed ?, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Sep 27	Rofa x2, Anbar	12
Sep 28	Garma, Anbar Sadound St, Baghdad West, Baghdad – 1 destroyed Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed	14	24
Totals	5 – 65 Destroyed	30	42
Sep 29	Sadoun St, Baghdad – 1 destroyed Baiji, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
Sep 30	Outside Ramadi x3, Anbar Outside Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed Daquq, Kirkuk – 2 destroyed Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	13	13
Totals	3 – 7 Destroyed	13	13
Grand Total	24 – 131 Destroyed	104	259

Islamic State Car Bombings Return To Southern Iraq After 1 Yr Hiatus

At the start of October 2015 a car bomb went off in Zubayr, Basra leaving dozens of casualties. While vehicle borne improvised explosives devices (VBIEDs) are nothing new to Iraq, this one marked the Islamic State’s return to southern Iraq. That region of the country had not been bombed for a year, but IS had been plotting for months to deliver a car bomb to that region.

On October 5, a VBIED detonated in a market in Zubayr in Basra. Ten people were killed and 25 wounded. This was a notable event because the last time a car bomb went off in southern Iraq was back on October 24 when there was an explosion in a garage in Najaf city that luckily left no casualties. (1) The twelve month gap between those two attacks was caused by a major defeat for the Islamic State, only to see the group bounce back in another sign of its resiliency.

The major reason why southern Iraq was not bombed for a year was the loss of Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil, the Islamic State’s major base in the south. In October 2014, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Hashd finally cleared the area after months of failed attempts. Jurf al-Sakhr was a hub of IS’s activities in not only Babil, but neighboring Anbar and Baghdad, and the starting point for car bombs into southern Iraq. With the loss of this base, IS was scattered across northern Babil, and took months to regroup there. By 2015, the insurgents were more interested in attacking Baghdad and Anbar, and there were no car bombs attempts in the south at all. That all began to change when summer started.

Starting in June 2015 the Islamic State once again began trying to plant VBIEDs in the south, but was unsuccessful. On June 10, seven car bombs were discovered in Karbala City. Six days later a suicide car bomber was killed trying to get close to the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf. Two months later a suicide car bomb was discovered in Ain al-Tamur in Karbala. The next month a car bomb was found in that same town. While none of these attempts worked for IS, it showed renewed interest in the south for the group. Karbala and Najaf were the targets because car bombs there could help stoke sectarian tensions, which the insurgents thrive off of. Those VBIEDs likely originated in Anbar or Babil and showed that IS had re-established its lines into at least the outer south. The October bombing in Basra highlighted that Is was now active once again at the farthest tip of the country.

The Islamic State finally made a break through when it detonated a car bomb in Basra. The group had been trying for the last several months to plant a VBIED in the south, but the security forces thwarted its plans. Now IS was able to deliver a bomb all the way to Basra. More attempts are likely as IS is in the middle of a VBIED campaign that began in July. It has been able to rebuild itself in northern Babil, and feels confident enough to divert some of its resources away from Anbar and Baghdad to try to strike the south. The Iraqi Security Forces do not have a good record breaking up insurgent networks, but hopefully its counter measures can discover most of these devices before they go off. They will have to be on guard as the IS threat is renewed in the region.

FOOTNOTES

1. There was a truck bombing in Basra’s Um Qasr in March 2015, but most think it was due to a local dispute rather than being an act of the Islamic State.

SOUTH

Abdul-Zahra, Qassm, "Car bombs in Iraq kill 18, wound 45," Associated Press, 10/5/15

AIN, "Car bombs seized in Karbala," 6/10/15

Al Forat, "Car bomb explodes in Najaf," 10/24/14

- "Initial Count: Basra truck bombing kills, injures 43 civilians," 3/18/15

Al Mada, "Thwart a suicide car bombing in Karbala and the arrest 28 suspects in criminal cases," 8/18/15

Al Masalah, "Found a car bomb west of Karbala," 9/15/15

Shafaq News, "Foiled a suicide attack after breaking through barriers and accessing the shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf," 6/16/15

Did Kidnapping Of Turkish Workers In Iraq Seal Idlib Ceasefire In Syria?

At the end of September 2015 a United Nations backed ceasefire in Idlib, Syria was announced, which might have been facilitated by the kidnapping of 18 Turkish workers in Iraq by a Shiite armed group. In Syria, rebels, the Syrian Army, and Lebanese Hezbollah agreed to end the siege of several towns and allow for civilians to leave those areas. Coincidentally, a Shiite group calling itself the Death Squads had previously included two of those towns in its demands for releasing the Turkish workers it seized in Baghdad earlier in the month. The group was likely connected to Iran, and kidnapped the Turks to put pressure on Ankara to agree to the U.N. brokered deal.

On September 2, 2015 18 Turkish workers were kidnapped in eastern Baghdad. The men who took the workers were wearing military uniforms and drove black SUVs. A few days later a group calling itself the Death Squads released a video detailing their demands, which included Turkey stopping jihadists travelling through its territory to Iraq, stopping Kurdish oil exports, and ending the siege of two Shiite towns in Syria, Fua and Kafayra by Syrian rebels. Shortly afterward Iran’s Fars News Agency claimed the Turks were working for a company that helped finance the Islamic State. Because of that report and the fact that the Death Squads’ concerns were all foreign led suspicion to immediately fall on Iranian backed armed groups as being responsible. Baghdad seemed to think the same thing when it raided the offices of Kataib Hezbollah in the capital, which led to a shootout and several casualties. That group was created by Iran in 2007 as an elite unit to carry out attacks upon American forces in Iraq, and is currently part of the Hashd al-Shaabi fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Iraqi militias supporting the Assad government in Syria. In fact, in September the group said that it had sent some of its fighters to help defend Fua and Kafayra. Eventually two of the workers was released, and then all the rest on September 30 in Musayib in northern Babil.

Al Mada and Hurriyet Daily both reported that the Turks’ release occurred after the Death Squads’ demands were met and the Idlib ceasefire was announced in Syria. Under the agreement the Syrian Army and Lebanese Hezbollah would allow Sunnis from the town of Zabandi to move to Idlib, while Syrian rebels would end the siege of Fua and Kafayra and allow people to move to government controlled territory. Iran and Turkey were both involved in the negotiations. Whether the kidnapping in Iraq actually influenced Ankara’s decision to support the deal is unknown, but it seems more than just coincidence.

SOURCES

Albayrak, Ayla, “Kidnapped Turkish Construction Workers Released in Iraq,” Wall Street Journal, 9/30/15

Cunningham, Erin, “Shiite militias in Iraq flex muscle over captured Turkish hostages,” Washington Post, 9/11/15

Ergan, Ugur, “Iranian intelligence helps in release of Turkish workers in Iraq,” Hurriyet Daily News, 10/3/15

Knights, Michael, “The Evolution of Iran’s Special Groups in Iraq,” CTC Sentinel, November 2010

Al Mada, “Security forces find 16 Turkish workers in North Babylon,” 9/30/15

Naylor, Hugh, “Will a U.N.0backed agreement end fighting in parts of Syria?” Washington Post, 9/26/15

Sabah, Zaid Alexander, Caroline, “Secretive Militia’s Challenge Risks Eroding Abadi Power in Iraq,” Bloomberg, 9/28/15

Shafaq News, “Iranian report: Turkish workers kidnapped in Iraq were working with Wali Baghdad to finance ISIS,” 9/12/15

Smyth, Phillip, “Iran’s Iraqi Shiite Proxies Increase Their Deployment to Syria,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 10/2/15

Musings On Iraq In The News

My interview with Craig Whiteside was cited in RAND’s “The Islamic State We Knew” by Howard Shatz and Erin-Elizabeth Johnson. I was also cited in "The British War Movie America Needs" by T.S. Allen in War On The Rocks, and "A Smart Bomb In Every Garage? Driverless Cars and the Future of Terrorist Attacks" by Jeffrey Lewis for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 

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