4,360 Dead, 3,920 Wounded In Iraq November 2016

November 2016 saw the highest casualties in Iraq recorded by Musings On Iraq since June 2014 when the Islamic State swept through northern and central Iraq.

There were a total of 8,280 casualties during the month. 4,360 were killed, consisting of 1 Hashd al-Watani, 4 Peshmerga, 14 Sahwa, 54 Hashd, 121 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 1,794 ISF, Sahwa, Hashd, Peshmerga reported by the United Nations. Another 3,920 were wounded made up of 2 Hashd al-Watani, 4 Sahwa, 5 Peshmerga, 68 Hashd, 458 ISF, and 3,383 civilians. Back in June 2014 there were 8,798 casualties with 5,100 dead and 3,698 injured.

In comparison, the United Nations had 3,229 dead and 1,509 wounded, and Iraq Body Count had 1,586 civilian fatalities.

The main driver of casualties during November was the Mosul campaign. There were 1,577 people who died in Ninewa made up of 1 Hashd al-Watani, 1 Peshmerga, 42 Hashd, 59 ISF, and 1,474 civilians. Another 2,566 were wounded consisting of 2 Hashd al-Watani, 55 Hashd, 372 ISF, and 2,137 civilians. Most of the 1,794 ISF, Sahwa, Hashd and Peshmerga that the U.N. had were probably in that province as well. The Islamic State executed a total of 942 people. Several mass graves have been discovered, and IS has been killing people in Mosul to try to maintain control of the population. Another 74 civilians died and 79 were injured by Coalition air strikes. IS mortar fire has also taken a heavy toll on civilians within Mosul, while many of the casualties amongst the Iraqi forces have come from suicide and car bombs. The press had 4 car bombs, 10 suicide bombers, and 10 suicide car bombs hitting the Iraqi forces, but the real number is likely higher. Another 6 motorcycle bombs, 39 suicide car bombs, 61 suicide bombers, and 209 car bombs were killed and destroyed.

After Ninewa, Baghdad had the most casualties. There were 239 incidents reported there leading to 288 dead and 881 wounded. Since the Mosul offensive began the press has been reporting less and less on the capital. That means there were probably far more attacks and casualties then were in the media in November. There were 7 car bombs, the most since 13 in May. Another two were dismantled before they exploded. The real killer however was the 143 IEDs. The south, 77 incidents, was the most violent section of the governorate, followed by 56 in the north, 48 in the west, 35 in the east, 10 in the center, and 2 in unknown locations.

Anbar had a high number of dead and wounded. 22 incidents led to 313 fatalities and 98 injured. Most of those killed came from the Anbar Health Directorate, and no details were provided on where or how they were caused. During the month, IS was able to set off two car bombs in Fallujah, the first since it was liberated. It also hit a wedding in Amiriya Fallujah with a suicide car bomb that killed 25 and wounded 45.

Babil had 7 incidents, 82 killed, and 60 wounded. A suicide truck bomb caused almost all of those casualties hitting mostly Iranian pilgrims in the town of Shomali leaving 80 dead and 58 injured.

Diyala continued to see low-level violence with an occasional mass casualty bombing. In November a suicide car bomb hit a checkpoint in Khalis killing 10 and wounding another 25. Otherwise there were 2 mortar incidents, 7 shootings, and 18 IEDs leading to a total of 33 dead and 44 injured.

Karbala had two rare security incidents. First, six suicide bombers were stopped at a checkpoint in Ain al-Tamer. Five were killed, but the fifth set off his device taking 8 lives and injuring 5. Two days later two more suicide bombers were killed in the western section of the province. All of these attackers came from Anbar.

IS picked up its operations in Salahaddin. The militants started off the month hitting pilgrims in Tikrit and Samarra with suicide bombs hidden in ambulances that left 27 killed and 141 wounded, most of which were Iranians. Two mass graves with 40 bodies of victims of the insurgents were discovered in Shirqat. Then finally, at the end of the month five suicide bombers hit a checkpoint in Samarra leaving 12 dead and 8 injured. In total, there were 27 incidents, 191 killed, and 201 wounded.

In Kirkuk people fleeing the IS controlled district of Hawija and others executed there accounted for almost all of the casualties. There were a total of 43 incidents, 72 dead, and 63 wounded. Of those, 16 people died and 39 were wounded mostly by IEDs trying to get out of Hawija. IS also killed a further 21.

Kurdistan had three incidents. In Irbil, an Imam connected to the Kurdistan Islamic Union was shot and killed by gunmen in front of his house. In Halabja, a Peshmerga was shot and wounded. Finally, a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) office in Chamchamal, Sulaymaniya was shot up.

Violence In Iraq 2016

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	723	2,418	1,986
FEB	657	1,685	1,724
MAR	683	1,685	2,095
APR	630	1,840	1,904
MAY	675	1,644	2,484
JUN	631	2,111	6,455
Jul 1-7	120	589	635
Jul 8-14	130	243	316
Jul 15-21	123	168	272
Jul 22-28	115	234	366
Jul 29-31	43	95	119
JUL	531	1,329	1,708
Aug 1-7	109	342	255
Aug 8-14	121	176	245
Aug 15-21	155	388	392
Aug 22-28	134	269	312
Aug 29-31	55	88	172
AUG	574	1,263	1,376
Sep 1-7	119	341	381
Sep 8-14	125	197	313
Sep 15-21	137	172	352
Sep 22-28	159	326	469
Sep 29-30	33	167	87
SEP	573	1,203	1,602
Oct 1-7	129	272	344
Oct 8-14	119	184	350
Oct 15-21	131	618	814
Oct 22-28	158	1,165	658
Oct 29-31	52	726	210
OCT	589	2,965	2,376
Nov 1-7	164	786	751
Nov 8-14	149	589	574
Nov 15-21	126	460	591
Nov 22-28	119	421	1,907
Nov 29-30	36	2,104	97
NOV	594	4,360	3,920

Security By Province Nov 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	22 Incidents 313 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 3 Hashd, 18 ISF, 291 Civilians 98 Wounded: 18 ISF, 80 Civilians 5 Shootings 8 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs 9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 7 Car Bombs Destroyed/Dismantled
Babil	7 Incidents 82 Killed: 82 Civilians 60 Wounded: 60 Civilians 1 Shooting 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Baghdad	239 Incidents 288 Killed: 5 Sahwa, 6 Hashd, 16 ISF, 261 Civilians 881 Wounded: 4 Sahwa, 7 Hashd, 51 ISF, 819 Civilians 49 Shootings 143 IEDs 16 Sticky Bombs 1 Motorcycle Bomb 7 Car Bombs 1 Grenade 2 Mortars 1 Suicide Car Bomb Dismantled 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Basra	3 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting 1 IED
Diyala	29 Incidents 33 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 Hashd, 3 ISF, 27 Civilians 44 Wounded: 4 Hashd, 5 ISF, 35 Civilians 7 Shootings 18 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Mortars
Halabja	1 Incident 1 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga 1 Shooting
Irbil	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Karbala	2 Incidents 8 Killed: 8 Civilians 5 Wounded: 5 Civilians 1 Suicide Bomber 7 Suicide Bombers Killed
Kirkuk	43 Incidents 72 Killed: 3 Peshmerga, 69 Civilians 63 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga, 59 Civilians 13 Shootings 13 IEDs 1 Stun Grenade 2 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested
Ninewa	219 Incidents 1,577 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 1 Hashd al-Watani, 42 Hashd, 59 ISF, 1,474 Civilians 2,566 Wounded: 2 Hashd al-Watani, 55 Hashd, 372 ISF, 2,137 Civilians 41 Shootings 13 IEDs 10 Suicide Bombers 10 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Car Bombs 1 Grenade 30 Mortars 4 Rockets 2 Artillery 6 Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed 61 Suicide Bombers Killed 39 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 209 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	27 Incidents 191 Killed: 1 Hashd, 7 Sahwa, 25 ISF, 158 Civilians 201 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 12 ISF, 187 Civilians 13 Shootings 4 IEDs 5 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Mortars 1 Rockets 1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed 5 Suicide Bombers Killed 5 Car Bombs Dismantled
Sulaymaniya	1 Incident 1 Shooting

Mosul Campaign Day 45, Nov 30, 2016

New areas of east Mosul were freed, while others remained contested. The 16^th Division, which was previously stalled on the northern front, transferred some of its forces to the east to assist the Golden Division. Together they freed the Barid neighborhood that was originally attacked on November 27. Qadisiyah 2, Mahrouq, Abadi, Akhaa 2 were all liberated, and Shuhada attacked, the 44^th neighborhood entered so far. Qadisiyah 2 was another area that has been gone through before. Intisar that was said to be freed twice already, remains contested, with a Golden Division officer telling Foreign Policy that about 80% of the area was secured.

Officers from the Golden and 9^th Divisions complained to the papers about the execution of the Mosul campaign. They both claimed that political pressure had pushed their units into eastern Mosul before other forces had arrived at the city as originally planned. That opened them up to attacks upon their flanks and rear by the Islamic State. The operation has run into a series of problems. The Iraqi forces were supposed to all reach Mosul and Tal Afar in the west at around the same time. The Golden Division entered east Mosul a month ago while the northern and southern fronts are stalled and Tal Afar was reached late and has still not been taken. That’s the reason why some units are being shifted to the east to help the Golden Division as they are not advancing on their own fronts.

The fighting has cut off tens of thousands of people from water in the eastern side of the city. The Iraqi forces are trying to provide for them by bringing in water on tanker trucks.

In the west the Hashd were still going through the area surrounding Tal Afar. Two more villages were liberated in the process. The Hashd are basically holding ground in the district waiting for the Iraqi forces to arrive and take Tal Afar itself.

Reuters talked with a Sunni Hashd unit, the Lions of the Tigris who were part of this thrust. The title of the article was that these fighters wanted federalism for Sunnis, but what they really stressed was their mistrust of the elite. One claimed that the Islamic State was part of a conspiracy hatched by politicians to weaken Sunnis. Another said that Sunnis needed federalism, but only under good leadership. A third said that Sunni lawmakers never visited their unit on the front. All together they gave the impression that they were fighting for a state and political class that they had no faith in. That did not bode well for the future because there was no reason for them to invest in the government after the war was over if they did not believe in it.

The New York Times ran a piece talking with Jamal Abul Younis a survivor of the killing fields in Hamam al-Alil. That town is the site of several mass graves with hundreds of victims of the Islamists. IS forced people from southern villages out of their homes to be used as human shields and herded them into Hamam al-Alil afterward. Younis saw the militants then separate former policemen and execute them.

There is a mix of people going back to their homes, while other areas remain empty in Ninewa. The town of Bashiqa was freed early on in the operation, but it remains largely abandoned. That’s because it is full of IEDs. The process of removing them is time consuming. That situation is probably being replayed in dozens of other villages across Ninewa. On the other hand the authorities reported that approximately 200 displaced families returned to Nimrod and its surrounding towns. According to aid agencies several thousand people have gone back to liberated areas. With the total number of displaced continuing to increase however, the amount of people that have returned is only about 1% of the total.

Finally, a political deal was made to secure the Ninewa Plains after Mosul is freed. The army, Hashd, and tribal fighters signed an agreement to control that area in the center of the province. That includes providing food and humanitarian aid, and to help people get back to their residences. The deal included representatives from the Shabak, Christian and Turkmen communities who once had large settlements on the plain.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Anti-Terrorism forces liberate 2nd area of Hayy al-Akhaa in Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/30/16

Arango, Tim, “Another Mass Grave Dug by ISIS in Iraq, and a Ghastly Ritual Renewed,” New York Times, 11/30/16

Bas News, "IS Shelling Results in High Casualties Among Civilians in Mosul," 11/30/16

Shafaq News, "Killing and wounding four civilians in shelling of their house in Palestine neighborhood," 11/30/16

Georgy, Michael, “Sunni tribesmen battling Islamic State demand federalism in Iraq,” Reuters, 11/30/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 1, 2016," 11/1/16

- "Inside Mosul, Nov. 27, 2016," 11/27/16

- "Inside Mosul, Nov. 30, 2016," 11/30/16

Al Maalomah, "Anti-terrorism forces repel a Daesh attack by two car bombs eastern Mosul," 11/30/16

MacDiarmid, Campbell, "Clawing Into Mosul, Block by Block," Foreign Policy, 11/30/16

Al Mada, “Agreement between the army and the popular crowd to manage the Ninewa Plain and areas to the south-east,” 11/30/16

- “The return of 200 displaced families to Nimrod area and security forces checking their names for security,” 11/30/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi recaptures 2 villages on way to strategic spot," Iraqi News, 11/30/16

- "Police kill 26 ISIS, 1 civilian dead in shelling at Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/30/16

Neuhof, Florian, “Battle for Mosul: How IS is making life tough for Iraq’s elite forces,” Middle East Eye, 11/30/16

Rudaw, "Army says three more Mosul neighborhoods taken from ISIS," 11/30/16

- “In explosives-littered Bashiqa, residents wary of returning to homes,” 11/30/16

Shafaq News, "Urgent anti-terrorism forces attack the martyrs neighborhood," 11/30/16

Sotaliraq, "Killing one person and injuring 7 others in a Daesh rocket attack east Mosul," 11/30/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces clear areas freed from IS in eastern Mosul," 11/9/16