U.N. Says That Political Instability Is Slowing Refugee Returns To Iraq

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) warned that the political instability in Iraq was slowing down the rate of refugee returns. The United Nations held a press conference in Baghdad at the end of September 2010 where officials said that the lack of a new government after the March parliamentary elections has led to a decline in the number of Iraqis coming back from other countries. They claimed that 45% of refugees interviewed in Syria and Jordan said that they did not want to come back because of the political situation in Iraq. 15% said they would not return because of the security situation, and 40% mentioned the lack of services.

The latest UNHCR report on Iraq showed this slowdown. In the five months leading up to the elections from November 2009 to March 2010 approximately 69,290 Iraqis returned. 11,970 were refugees, and the remaining 57,320 were internally displaced. That averaged out to 13,858 Iraqis coming back per month. For the five months after the election from April to August 51,540 people came back. 10,810 were refugees and 40,730 were displaced. That was an average of 10,380 per month. The difference between the two periods was largely due to a drop in the number of displaced willing to make the trip home.

As reported before, the number of Iraqis returning has gone up and down since 2003. 2004 saw the largest amount at 291,997. Then as the civil war took off there was a drop to 81,420 in 2007. When security improved returns increased to 221,260 in 2008, but then went steadily down to 204,830 in 2009, and 89,700 from January to August 2010. At the current pace, only around 150,000 refugees and displaced would likely come back this year. Whether that amount will go up again in 2011 with a new government is yet to be seen.

Refugee/Displaced Returns November 2009-August 2010
2009
Nov. 16,080
Dec. 15,050
2010
Jan. 11,600
Feb. 9,480
Mar. 17,080
Apr. 8,730
May 11,710
Jun. 11,920
Jul. 8,970
Aug. 10,210

Before Election
Nov. 09 – Mar. 10 69,290
Avg. 13,858 per month

After Election
Apr. – Aug. 10 51,540
Avg. 10,380 per month

SOURCES

Rao, Prashant, “Lack of Iraq govt hurting security and refugee returns,” Agence France Pressure, 9/29/10

UNHCR Iraq Operation, “Monthly Statistical Update on Return – August 2010,” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, September 2010

NY Times Daily Life In Iraq Photo Essays

The New York Times’ At War blog recently ran two photo essays on daily life in Iraq. The first, “In Baghdad, It’s Business as Unusual,” documented new retail stores that have cropped up in Baghdad. They went to the Family Center, Peace, and the Home Center. Rather than insurgents being their main concern, the owners cited obtaining gas and fuel for their generators, finding suppliers, and fear of kidnapping by criminal gangs. One businessman said that access to satellite TV and traveling to other countries has made Iraqis want the latest fashions and appliances like people in other countries, and that was leading to the growth of new businesses to meet this demand. The second story, “Getting Away From It All: The Iraq You Don’t Often See,” documented Iraqis enjoying their weekend at Habaniya Tourist Village in Anbar. The reporter found that the local hotels were all empty, but there were dozens of Iraqis still enjoying their time at Habaniya Lake swimming, rafting, and jet skiing. The two stories reminded readers that despite the lack of a new government, and on-going attacks by militants, Iraq is no longer in a sectarian civil war, and that security has greatly improved. That means more and more Iraqis are able to enjoy shopping and weekend getaways, and can begin to return to a normal life. Below are some of the featured pictures from the two reports.

Source: New York Times

Source: New York Times

Source: New York Times

Source: New York Times

SOURCES

Oghanna, Ayman, “Getting Away From It All: The Iraq You Don’t Often See,” At War Blog, New York Times, 10/8/10

Mousa, Yasmine, “In Baghdad, It’s Business as Unusual,” At War Blog, New York Times, 10/8/10

September Saw The Second Lowest Casualty Figures In Iraq Since Beginning Of 2010

September 2010 saw a dramatic drop in deaths in Iraq. Iraq Body Count, Icasualties, and Iraq's ministries recorded the second lowest death counts since the beginning of the year. Iraq Body Count had 247 dead in September, icasualties recorded 174, and Iraq's ministries had 273. That averaged out to 7.7 deaths per day, down from 13.8 the previous month. For the second month in a row, the Associated Press did not release its own total. Only January had a lower figure in 2010 with an average of 6.1 deaths per day. That meant September broke the trend of the first eight months of the year, which saw a steady increase in deaths.

The number of wounded in September were just about the same as August as well. In September 485 people were wounded, 284 civilians, 90 police, and 111 soldiers. The month before there were 508 wounded. Both were lower than July when 1,043 were wounded. 

The drop in deaths was not captured in western press reports, which continued to focus upon dramatic attacks, which were meant to garner media coverage. The New York Times for example, had six stories on violence in Iraq in September. On September 29 there was a story about U.S. concerns over an increase in Iranian-backed rocket attacks upon the Green Zone. On September 19, it had a report on two bombs that struck Baghdad and Fallujah that killed 35 and wounded 100. Two days before it noted a disputed U.S.-Iraqi raid in Fallujah that killed 7. In the first week of the month there was also a story on an insurgent raid on a Baghdad military base. The other two reports did not involve militants. There was also "Insurgent Group in Iraq, Declared Tamed, Roars" on September 28, which claimed that Al Qaeda in Iraq had reorganized and was still carrying out attacks despite claims that it had been decapitated. A casual reader seeing these headlines would've thought that violence was the same as ever in Iraq. It was only at the end of the month when the casualty figures were released that someone would've found out that September saw a large decrease in deaths.

As with any war coverage, the press focuses upon daily violence with little to no context, and the large attacks that insurgents carry out, tend to get the most stories, just as they are intended to. This is especially true in Iraq, because most of the foreign reporters left the country in 2009. If not for the extended negotiations over forming a new government, the only thing the West would hear about Iraq would be the occasional bombing or sensational attack. Violence, insurgents, and Special Groups persist in Iraq, but they are at their lowest level since the U.S. invasion. At the same time, Iraq is still one of the deadliest places in the world. It's important to recognize the changes Iraq has gone through, while taking note of the suffering that continues there.

Monthly Death Counts

Month	Iraq Body Count	Icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Associate Press	Avg. # Of Deaths Per Day
Jan. 10	259	135	196	177	6.1
Feb.	296	236	352	255	10.1
Mar.	311	183	367	230	8.7
Apr.	376	259	328	321	10.7
May	370	279	337	278	10.3
June	353	176	284	294	9.4
July	424	534	535	356	14.9
Aug.	502	363	426	N/A	13.8
Sep.	247	174	273	N/A	7.7

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, "Iraq sees lowest monthly toll since January," 10/1/10

Associated Press, "High Iraq deaths cast doubt on U.S. stability talk," 8/2/10

CNN, "Hundreds of civilians killed in Iraqi violence in August," 9/1/10

Farrell, Stephen and Williams, Timothy, "Dozens Dead After Baghdad Car Bombs," New York Times, 9/19/10

Myers, Steven Lee and Adnan, Duraid, "Attacks Shows Lasting Threat to U.S. in Iraq," New York Times, 9/5/10

Myers, Steven Lee and Shanker, Thom, "Attacks on Baghdad Green Zone Surge," New York Times, 9/29/10

Williams, Timothy, "Insurgent Group in Iraq, Declared Tamed, Roars," New York Times, 9/27/10

Williams, Timothy and Adnan, Duraid, "Iraqis-U.S. Raid Near Falluja Leaves 7 Dead," New York Times, 9/15/10

Row Over Al-Ahdab Oil Field Continues In Wasit

Al-Ahdab Oil Facility In Wasit
Source: Washington Post

Ever since the Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC) re-worked an old Saddam Hussein era oil contract to develop the Al-Ahdab field in Wasit, it has run into one problem after another. In the latest incident, the Oil Ministry sent federal police to arrest two members of the Wasit provincial council, including the deputy head, on October 7, 2010 for forcing their way into the facility last month. On September 27, council members and local police went to Al-Ahdab demanding to see all of the financial records of the joint Iraq-Chinese company that runs the field, claiming mismanagement. The Oil Ministry condemned the council’s actions, saying that local officials had no authority over the facility. Baghdad has now taken it a step further by arresting some of the politicians involved.

Just the day before the Wasit council demanded that employees at the field be transferred elsewhere because of corruption and embezzlement charges. The council also accused the Iraq-Chinese company of failing to provide money or jobs for the province, which is one of the poorest in Iraq. The local politicians threatened to turn Wasit into an autonomous region, unless something was done about the Al-Ahdab employees.

Back in 2009, Wasit farmers destroyed some of the oil company’s equipment, saying that it was ruining their fields. That forced Al-Ahdab to shut down for a short period until Baghdad sent extra security. Then as now, locals complained that they were not receiving jobs or money from the field.

CNPC renewed a 1990s deal into a new service contract with the Oil Ministry in August 2008. Under the agreement, CNPC is to raise production at Al-Ahdab to 100,000 barrels a day within five years. They will initially receive $6 per barrel for every one they produce over 100,000. That will eventually go down to $3 per extra barrel.

It’s unclear now whether Al-Ahdab is the exception or will set a trend for how locals view the international oil companies that are beginning to work in Iraq. In 2009 and 2010, the Oil Ministry signed twelve new contracts with foreign corporations to develop its energy industry. They are currently working on fields throughout southern Iraq. Whether their operations will eventually garner the kind of animosity that CNPC has is yet to be seen, but if any of them do, it could be a setback for Baghdad’s plans. Not only has the Oil Ministry promised a huge increase in oil production and exports, but also jobs, something Iraq desperately needs. There are many who questions whether this will ever happen, as petroleum is not a labor-intensive business. Iraq will definitely reap huge profits, and how those are spent will likely determine whether these new deals really help Iraqis or just make it another oil dependent country where the public rarely sees any benefits.

SOURCES

Lando, Ben, “Wasit official arrested for Ahdab raid,” Iraq Oil Report, 10/8/10

Al-Rubaiaa, Salah, “Iraqi province and oil ministry in row over oil field which China is developing,” Azzaman, 10/7/10

Two Senior Security Officers Arrested In Diyala

Source: BBC

In the latest bad news for Diyala’s security forces, a general who was the security adviser to Diyala’s governor, the governor’s bodyguard, and the head of security at the provincial council offices were all arrested in their homes in Muqtadiya on October 3, 2010. They were detained by the Counter Terrorism Force from Baghdad. The raid came as a result of intelligence about an impending attack upon the council building in the governorate’s capital Baquba.

In previous months other members of the province’s security forces have been arrested for alleged ties to insurgents. In May the police chief for Diyala complained that too many of his men were recruited quickly without proper vetting, which led to infiltration by militants. That process was leading to the arrest of several officers. On June 1, for example, 39 policemen were arrested for involvement in a bombing on May 21 that killed 30 and wounded another 80. Later in that month several more policemen were arrested for allegedly passing on intelligence to Al Qaeda, along with a member of a district council who was found with explosives in his house. Now the bad apples in the security forces have moved up to a general and two others, who were working directly with the governor of the province. With supporters that high up in the hierarchy, it’s no wonder that Diyala remains one of the more violent areas of the country.

SOURCES

Ahmed, Hamid, “Iraqi official found with TNT, charged with terror,” Associated Press, 6/15/10

AK News, “Diyala: “Joint security force arrests head of Saadiyah local council,”” 6/15/10

Aswat al-Iraq, "3 security officers arrested in Diala," 10/3/10

Mohammed, Muhanad, “Iraqi security officials arrested over plot,” Reuters, 10/3/10

Threatening Flyers Distributed To Arabs and Turkmen In Kirkuk

Source: BBC

On October 2, 2010 it was reported that armed men dressed in civilian clothes distributed flyers to Turkmen and Arabs in the city of Kirkuk in the northern province of Tamim. According to McClatchy Newspaper’s Inside Iraq blog the flyers read: “Warning You don’t belong here – Leave unconditionally within 24 hours – or else we are prepared to use all means including force, if necessary.” Iraq’s Al-Aalem paper reported that the warnings were mostly given to displaced Arab families in the city, some of which claimed that their papers were taken from them as well. The director of police in Kirkuk said that he had received complaints about the flyers, but had no information about who the culprits were.

Arabs and Turkmen were quick to blame the Kurdish security force the Asayesh. The deputy governor of Tamim for example, said that Asayesh were working under orders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and went door to door for three days distributing the leaflets. He in turn called on Baghdad to warn the ruling Kurdish parties about these activities to get them to stop. An Arab member of the provincial council also demanded that the central government replace the peshmerga in the area with regular soldiers and police, otherwise locals would take up arms to protect themselves. The Kurds in turn, denied any involvement in the episode.

Tensions have ebbed and flow between Kirkuk’s three major communities, Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen, since the 2003 invasion. Kurds have called the city their Jerusalem, and have made its annexation a major demand in negotiations over forming a new government. This has caused nothing but trouble with the Arabs and Turkmen who at the minimum want to maintain the status quo, if not reverse the Kurdish advances in Tamim. The threatening flyers that were handed out was just the latest episode in this on-going drama. Who was actually behind them is unknown, and probably will never be revealed. They could very well be the work of Kurdish parties hoping to intimidate Arabs and Turkmen before the national census, which will likely show a Kurdish majority in the governorate. It could also be the work of insurgents hoping to stir up trouble during the U.S. withdrawal and Iraq’s political limbo. They could use at as a recruiting tool as well. Either way it’s unlikely to be the last provocative story coming out of Kirkuk.

SOURCES

AFP, “Arab families as a refugee in Kirkuk: Asaish trying we moved under threat,” Al-Aalem, 10/2/10

Azzaman, “Kurdish militia ‘terrorizing’ Arabs and Turkmen in Iraq’s Kirkuk,” 10/2/10

Inside Iraq, “Kirkuk and the Up-coming Census,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/2/10

Iraq Signs New Oil Pipeline Deals, But Who Will Pay For Them?

In September 2010 Iraq signed two new agreements to expand its oil infrastructure. First, on September 19 the Oil Ministry inked a deal to extend the use of the northern pipeline that goes to Turkey for another 15 years with a 5-year option. The line has a 1.65 million barrel a day capacity, but usually only pumps around 450,000 barrels. The two sides plan to expand that capacity by another 1 million barrels a day, but there is no timeline for when that will happen. The problem is the pipeline is plagued by attacks and technical difficulties. On September 24 for example, it was announced that the flow through the line dropped 20% due to a problem on the Iraqi side. At the end of August it was shut down for four days because of another technical issue, and on August 20 it closed for another four days due to a bombing. Baghdad also came an agreement with Syria to build a 1.25 million barrels a day crude oil pipeline and a 1.5 million barrels a day heavy oil pipeline that are meant to service the Najma and Qayara petroleum fields in Ninewa, which were auctioned off to Angola’s Sonangol in 2009. A natural gas line to supply fuel for the pumping stations for the oil pipelines is also part of the deal. Previously two pipelines were built between Iraq and Syria in 1952 and 1962 respectively, but both are out of date, and were shut down during the invasion of Kuwait in 1990. (1)

These are the latest steps by the Oil Ministry to expand its infrastructure in anticipation of a large increase in petroleum production expected from the twelve oil deals it signed in 2009 and this year. The problem is Iraq has no idea where it will get the money to build these new pipelines. The Ministry has gone to the oil companies it signed contracts with to see if they want to contribute to their construction or actually manage the projects and operate the lines afterward. The price tag is probably several billion dollars. According to the deputy Oil Minister four to five companies have expressed some interest. At the same time an oil executive told Reuters that all the talk of new lines and finding financing is just that, talk, with Baghdad having no actual plans on how they will build or pay for them. Iraq better come up with something concrete soon, otherwise there is no way that it will be able to reach its lofty goals for petroleum production and exports.

FOOTNOTES

1. Tanner, James, “After the War Iraq Is Fast Rebuilding Its Ravaged Oil Trade Into a World Leader,” Wall Street Journal, 1/8/90

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq and Syria agree on two new oil pipelines,” 9/20/10

Ajrash, Kadhim and Razzouk, Nayla, “Iraq’s Crude Exports via Turkey – ‘Suddenly Drop’ 20% After Technical Fault,” Bloomberg, 9/24/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraq on the road to become leading world oil exporter – report,” 9/21/10

Commodity Online, “Iraq upgrades oil pipeline to boost exports,” 9/18/10

El Gamal, Rania, “Iraq eyes oil firms funding for export projects,” Reuters, 9/26/10

Rasheed, Ahmed, “Iraq, Turkey sign renewed oil pipeline accord,” Reuters, 9/19/10

Tanner, James, “After the War Iraq Is Fast Rebuilding Its Ravaged Oil Trade Into a World Leader,” Wall Street Journal, 1/8/90