Iraq’s Kurdistan Postpones Presidential And Constitutional Vote

September 2013 was the date set for voting on the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) president and parliament. The balloting was surrounded in controversy as President Massoud Barzani was attempting to find a way to run for a third term, despite Kurdish law saying that he could only serve two times. As part of this effort, Barzani was pushing a referendum on the region’s draft constitution, which would allow him the opportunity to serve up to eight more years. The Kurdish opposition was crying foul, and Barzani’s erstwhile allies the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) were also expressing reservations. The KRG president then conveniently postponed the election for the executive, and agreed to send the constitution back to the regional parliament. This may seem like a setback for Barzani, but it actually shows how easily Kurdistan’s ruling parties can manipulate the political system to stay in power.

KRG President Barzani has shown deft control of the region’s politics to stay in office (KDP)

In mid-June it was announced that the KRG’s presidential election was being delayed, and that the draft constitution was being sent back to the regional legislature. Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) made the decision. A PUK member told the press that the election law had to be changed, and the constitution amended before the vote for the president could take place. The Kurdish parties have already sent in their views on the constitution, and the parliament is ready to debate them. The opposition parties, the Change List, the Kurdistan Islamic Group, and the Kurdistan Islamic Union have all demanded that the constitution be revised before it is delivered to the public. They have complained that it would give too much power to the president, and that it was written before they held any seats in the parliament, and they therefore had no input on it. Even some members of the PUK were expressing reservations about it. This was a 180-degree change for Barzani who just the month before said that no one had the power to send the constitution to parliament, and that only the people had the right to vote on it. The KDP was pushing for the referendum to occur at the same time as the September presidential and parliamentary balloting, but that was a ruse as the Election Commission stated that it would take months to prepare for such an event. The opposition, and even some in the PUK saw this as a power play by the president to stay in office. The postponement therefore might seem like a defeat for President Barzani who was looking to run again, and was pushing the referendum, but was facing a lot of resistance. Instead, it shows how much control he has over the system. He can simply put things off until he is in a better position to get his way.

The Kurdish constitution has been in limbo since 2009. Originally, the KDP and PUK were hoping that it would be delivered to the people in July of that year when there was regional balloting going on, but the Election Commission said it wasn’t able to do all that at the same time. Then in 2011, when protests started in Sulaymaniya, the ruling parties agreed to amend it, but nothing happened. Since then there have been several other discussions about revising it, but to no avail. The main points of the constitution that appeal to Barzani is that it gives him direct control of the security forces and the peshmerga, greater power over legislation, and would allow him to run for president two more times. Now it seems as though it will be quite some more time before the people get to pass or reject it as the parliament may take months to finalize it. The KRG would then have to ask the Election Commission to set up the referendum, which would take weeks more. This was always part of Barzani’s long-term strategy then, as it was impossible to hold a vote on it this year.

The discussion about the constitution is part of the larger drive for Barzani to find a means to stay in office. The Change List has said that term limits were put in place to prevent dictatorship, and if Barzani were to serve a third term it would be the end of democracy in Kurdistan. The three opposition parties also floated the idea of running their own candidate for president to oppose Barzani, but had no idea on whom it would be or whether all of them would compete separately or together. Likewise, the PUK has been split about another term for Barzani. In response, the KDP said that since Barzani was not elected by the people in 2005, but rather appointed by the parliament, he was only elected once in 2009, and therefore can run again this year. The party has also talked about changing the election law. This is the main priority for Barzani. He is still widely popular amongst his constituency, controls a huge patronage network, and his party is more powerful than the PUK or the opposition. To him there is no reason why he shouldn’t remain in office, no matter what the law says.

The delay in the presidential election and sending the constitution to parliament for amending is part of the larger plan by Barzani to stay in power. The referendum on the constitution was never going to happen this year. Barzani was simply laying the ground for passing it in the future to allow him the chance to run two more times. Of more immediate concern is this year’s voting. Seeing the opposition he was facing about running again, he simply held off on the balloting, until he could find the right means to stay in office. Rather than a setback, this turn of events shows the power Barzani and the ruling parties have over Kurdistan. When things are not going their way, they simply change the rules. Barzani will stay in office, and the presidential vote will happen when the KDP is ready. The parliament can debate the constitution, but the opposition lacks the seats to do anything substantive, and the PUK is leaderless with Iraqi President Talabani out of the country recovering from surgery. That means it will eventually be passed, but with only minor changes, and the referendum will happen when Barzani wants. This all shows why he is unwilling to step down. Why should he is he exerts such control over the region’s politics.

SOURCES

Ahmed, Hevidar, “As Elections Loom, Kurdistan Region Parties Remain in Deadlock,” Rudaw, 5/17/13

AIN, “Mustafa: Nominating Barzani for 3^rd term to end democracy in KR,” 5/25/13

Barznjy, Hiwa, “cooking up kurdish constitution to stay in power?” Niqash, 5/24/13

Insight Kurdistan, “Q&A: Kurdistan Region’s Draft Constitution,” 6/11/13

Kurdistan Tribune, “Gorran says ‘no’ to extension for President Barzani,” 4/9/13

- “PUK leadership ‘deceives’ members over KDP,” 6/8/13

Mahmoud, Nawzad, “Kurdistan’s Two Ruling Parties Give Conflicting Views on Regions Constitution,” Rudaw, 6/4/13

Mohammed, Shwan, “Kurdish president’s re-election plans spark criticism,” Agence France Presse, 4/14/13

Muhammad, Juwanro, “iraqi kurdish opposition: ‘we will compete with president barzani,’” Niqash, 6/6/13

National Iraqi News Agency, “BREAKING NEWS Barazani affirms he will not seek another term,” 5/4/13

Radio Nawa, “Islamic Group of Kurdistan rejects referendum on the constitution, which insists the region’s president referendum,” 5/27/13

Rudaw, “Debate over Kurdistan Region Constitution Goes to Parliament,” 6/13/13

- “Kurdistan Region’s Ruling Parties Agree on Delaying Presidential Poll,” 6/16/13

Zebari, Abdel Hamid, “Barzani Presses for Referendum On Iraqi Kurdistan Constitution,” Al-Monitor, 5/23/13

- “Iraqi Kurdish Opposition Parties Oppose Referendum,” Al-Monitor, 5/29/13

Zulal, Shwan, “Kurdish Democracy’s biggest test yet,” Kurdistan Tribune, 4/19/13

Growing Complaints About Security Operations In Iraq

In response to the deteriorating security situation, the Iraqi military has launched a series of clearing missions in Anbar, Ninewa, Tamim, and other provinces recently. These operations have received a growing number of complaints from politicians and average citizens who claim that the police and army are violating people’s rights, carrying out arbitrary arrests, hindering travel, and destroying property. This is in direct contrast to government statements, which emphasize the cooperation of the public. This turn of events points to two major shortcomings with the Iraqi forces. The first is that these are all clear and leave missions, which have no hope of lessoning the insurgency. Second, their punitive measures are antagonizing the population, which can only help the militants. Together that means that there is no military solution coming for Iraq’s growing violence.

Iraqi forces have recently been publicly criticized for carrying out arbitrary arrests (New Sabah)

There have recently been two articles detailing complaints about the on going security operations. The first was in New Sabah, which cited locals in Anbar accusing the security forces of heavy handed tactics. Local politicians said that the military was not listening to their concerns. The Defense Ministry denied any abuses. Ground forces commander General Ali Ghidan added that the security forces were only at the border, that they had carried out no arbitrary arrests, and that the only people who would lodge complaints were connected to terrorists. The second piece was in Al-Mada that quoted a parliamentarian from Anbar and the deputy head of the provincial council there who said that people’s rights were being violated, and that they had received around 200 complaints about raids, arrests, property damage, and roads being cut off. In most public statements by the government they have stressed that the population has cooperated with the army and police to track down insurgents. These were entirely different. Instead, General Ghidan actually attacked the critics, implying they were with the militants. More importantly, this showed that the Iraqi military and police are no longer carrying out counterinsurgency operations, which stress cooperation with the locals. What they do today is raid and carry out mass arrests, which tends to turn the populace against the operations.

For the last several months, Baghdad has picked up the pace of operations to try to counter the growing wave of bombings and attacks. In mid-May the Defense Ministry said that the army was getting ready for an operation to free 35 soldiers that were kidnapped in Anbar. This became part of The Ghost that started on May 16 to clear out the desert regions of the province. On May 28, another mission was announced across Anbar, Ninewa, Diyala, Salahaddin, Babil, and Baghdad. Zero Hour was launched in June in the Horan Valley of southwest Tamim governorate. Most recently, forces were deployed along the Syrian border in Ninewa and Anbar in preparation of the local voting there. The problem with all of these operations is that they are so limited in nature that they have no hope of changing the current situation. The army goes out into the countryside for just a few days, cleans up a few camps, arrests lots of people, some of which they claim are Al Qaeda fighters, and then leaves. Most of these bases were temporary to begin with, so when the military departs, militants simply move right back in. It might give the image that the government is doing something to counter the growing number of attacks, but it is actually completely fruitless.

The Iraqi government is between a rock and a hard place. It must respond to the renewed insurgency and the increasing death counts, but its response is actually making the situation worse. Its tactics don’t work. Not only that, the military operations leave behind a bitter populace, which is not willing to help the authorities, and might turn towards militants as a result. This is exactly the same situation the United States was in from 2003-2006 in Iraq. What their tactics led to was a growing insurgency. Baghdad is facing the exact same set of circumstances again.

SOURCES

Al-Janoob, “Mohammed al-Askari declares the readiness of the army to attack and free the kidnapped soldiers in Anbar,” 5/19/13

Al-Mada, “Army in Anbar is facing 200 complaints and “clan-trial” after stripped citizen and entry border towns,” 6/16/13

New Sabah, “The island confirm forces: our reach in the desert areas “to restrict terrorists,”” 6/15/13

Al-Qaisi, Mohammad, “Iraqi forces capture al-Qaeda cell in ‘Zero Hour’ operation,” Al Shorfa, 6/11/13

- “Iraqi forces launch operation in response to recent attacks,” Al-Shorfa, 5/31/13

Sadah, Ali Abel, “Al-Qaeda-Iraq Statement A Sign Of Rising Sectarian Violence,” Al-Monitor, 5/31/13

Al-Shamar, Salah, “Iraq masses troops on border with Syria to guard elections in two provinces,” Azzaman, 6/16/13

Iraq No Closer To Solving Its Electricity Problems

2013 looks to be another year that the Iraqi government fails to end its energy supply problems. Since the beginning of the year various officials and offices from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to his deputy Hussein Shahristani to the Electricity Ministry have promised that by the end of the year there will be no more blackouts and power outages in the country. In June for example, the Electricity Ministry said that it had achieved its highest production since 2003. This has been met by widespread skepticism by members of parliament and the public as Baghdad has become completely untrustworthy when it comes to announcements about the progress it is making with its national grid.

This mess of power lines in an Iraqi city is symbolic of the government’s attempts to solve its electricity shortages (BBC)

Iraq’s Electricity Ministry recently claimed that it had reached the highest power output since the 2003 invasion. On June 13, the Ministry said that it had reached 10,000 megawatts in capacity. That was close to reaching its goal for the year of 11,000 megawatts. The Ministry went on to claim that it was providing 15-24 hours of power per day to the public. Baghdad was receiving 15 hours per day, Diyala 16 hours, Wasit 20 hours, and Maysan and Tamim 24 hours each according to the Ministry. It went on to promise new power stations at the end of the month and early July. Since January Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Deputy Premier Hussein Shahristani who is in charge of energy policy, and the Electricity Ministry have been promising that this is the year that the country will finally overcome its electricity shortages. In April for example, the Ministry told the press that private generator operators would have to sell their equipment by October when demand was finally met. This is just the latest round of such promises. For years now, Baghdad has been making claim after claim that it is just around the corner from solving this dilemma. That has led to a growing sense of skepticism amongst the public and parliament.

June has witnessed protests in Nasiriyah over constant power shortages (Al-Mada)

 

There are plenty of reasons to question the government’s recent statements that it will be meeting demand. First, the Electricity Ministry’s own numbers don’t add up. It said its goal for the year was to reach 11,000 megawatts in capacity, but then it said that Iraqis were using around 14,200 megawatts. Second, it has cut back its own target several times. Towards the beginning of the year officials like Deputy Premier Shashristani were saying that Iraq would be producing 12,000 megawatts by the end of 2013. Before that, the Ministry was supposed to reach 13,000 megawatts before the summer. Third, the country has never been able to produce at capacity, because of a number of problems. The Ministry admitted as much when it told the press on June 13 that it was down 690 megawatts due to a lack of fuel and other issues. The next day that number increased to 1,600 megawatts in lost production. Fourth, in May, as a sign that public production was not going to be enough the cabinet agreed to provide private generator operators with free fuel for the summer. That same month, a parliamentarian from the oil and energy committee claimed that three new power stations came on line in Wasit, Karbala, and Babil, but were not operating. Finally, the public is boiling over with anger at the continued blackouts and lack of steady electricity, and calling Baghdad’s bluff that those problems will be solved anytime soon. That has led to protests in Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province since the beginning of June. The Electricity Ministry’s figures and actions prove that it will not be close to meeting demand by the end of the year. Even if it were to produce at capacity it would still be several hundred megawatts short. The country also lacks the infrastructure like power lines to deliver all the electricity it wants to produce or the fuel to run all the new stations it is building. The public and members of parliament know this, which is why no one believes Baghdad when it talks about all the progress it is making.

The lack of electricity is one of the biggest complaints made by average Iraqis. For three years now people have taken to the streets to protest against the government’s failure to address this issue. 2013 is no different with on going demonstrations in Nasiriyah. Every time the Electricity Ministry or an official starts talking about the problem being solved in just a few months, a member of parliament points out that Baghdad has been making those same types of statements for years. That all means that Iraq is heading for another hot summer with plenty of blackouts and angry citizens, because the government’s plans are nowhere near coming to fruition, and the way they’ve been going won’t be ay time soon.

SOURCES

AIN, “3 power station inaugurated, yet without production, says Sa’ad,” 5/12/13

- “MP describes promises to resolve electric power crisis in Iraq as “exaggerated,” 4/11/13

- “MP holds government, MoE responsible for flounder at electric power projects,” 6/12/13

Alsumaria, “Iraqi Cabinet provides private generators with free fuel,” 5/21/13

Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraq achieves electricity self-sufficiency end of 2013,” 1/20/13

- “Iraqi electricity production to reach 12,000 megawatts,” 4/18/13

Azzaman, “Iraq to hit “final nail in coffin of darkness” in October,” 4/8/13

Al-Mada, “”Electricity Demonstrations” in Nasiriyah continue for a seventh day,” 6/8/13

- “Electricity Ministry achieves the highest energy production from 15 to 24 hours a day,” 6/13/13

- “Electricity: our output rose (6500) MW for 2003 and we still need (4200) MW extra,” 6/14/13

Saeed, Samer, “Stability in power supplies leads to surge in prices of cooling gadgets,” Azzaman, 4/15/13

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Iraq Prime Minister Maliki’s State Of Law Fighting Back For Control of Provinces

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law (SOL) was the biggest winner in the 2013 local elections, but things have not worked out the way it planned. It came away with wins in seven provinces, Baghdad, Basra, Babil, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Karbala, and Muthanna. The premier was hoping that this would be a stepping stone to the 2014 parliamentary vote. Things quickly turned against him however, when the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) broke an early deal with State of Law, and aligned with the Sadr Trend’s Liberal bloc to try to shut out him out. Maliki is now fighting back trying to form his own ruling coalitions in several provinces.

Maliki’s list won in Baghdad (8), Basra (18), Babil (11), Qadisiyah (14), Dhi Qar (17), Karbala (14), and Muthanna (16). Since then his list has only been able to form governments in Basra (18), Dhi Qar (17), and Najaf (13). (Wikipedia)

Initially, it looked like State of Law would be shut out of all seven provinces it won, but now it is trying to make a comeback. Basra is Iraq’s third largest province population wise, and contains the majority of its oil wealth. For those reasons, SOL was offering the Supreme Council Najaf, Dhi Qar, and another province in return for the governorship of Basra. Maliki’s list didn’t get the top spot, but it was able to hold onto some power there. State of Law got its governor Khalaf Abdul-Samad elected as the head of the provincial council, after it made a deal with the other major Shiite parties, and some of the minor ones. This was despite the fact that the list split with a few members joining the Sadr-ISCI alliance, who claimed they had a quorum first to form the new government. In Qadisiyah, the first attempt to hold a session of the new provincial council was postponed due to disagreements between the winning lists. Maliki sent his chief of staff Abdul Halim al-Zuhairi there to hold talks to woo parties away from the Sadrists and Supreme Council. Those two split in Dhi Qar, with a few members of the Liberal bloc joining with State of Law. That opened the way for SOL to gain the head of the council there. In Najaf, State of Law got Governor Adnan al-Zurfi of the Najaf First list was re-elected over the objections of ISCI and the Sadrists. Finally, in Diyala, the united Shiite list Diyala’s National Coalition aligned with the Kurdish Brotherhood and Coexistence List to form the new ruling coalition. At the same time, SOL is trying to split the Sadrists from the Supreme Council. Despite these successful and on going negotiations Maliki has faced a major setback in the 2013 voting. He was hoping to come out of the election with majorities across the south and Baghdad. Now he is struggling to just get a fraction of those. That shows that he is not in as strong a position as he thought he was, and that the other Shiite lists are taking advantage of that.

Every national government put together since 2005 has been a national unity one that includes every winning list. While being inclusive, this has also made the government large and unwieldy with both opponents and supporters having to share power. That has frustrated Premier Maliki who would like to have freer reign to rule the country. His list has suffered from being the incumbents this year, not winning as many seats in the new councils as it did in 2009. Not only that, but his heavy handed rule, and the desire of the other Shiite parties to surpass him has led the prime minister to fight for control more than he thought he would have to. That has secured him a few provinces, and he is working on others, but more importantly it shows that he will continue to have to share power. For a developing democracy like Iraq, and given complaints about Maliki’s autocratic tendencies, that might not be the worst thing.

SOURCES

Abdullah Ali, “Citizen coalition and the Liberals on the mechanism of choosing the head of the provincial council in Najaf,” 6/13/13

- “Defection of two members of the state of law and formally joining coalition of Basra First,” Buratha News, 6/9/13

- “Urgent .. the announcement of a new alliance in Najaf includes citizens coalition and Liberals to form local government,” 6/8/13

AIN, “Babel First Alliance announces completing quorum to form Babel local government,” 6/11/13

- “Babel First Political Alliance formed,” 6/10/13

- “Bazoni: Basra governor post granted for Citizen Alliance,” 6/8/13

- “Breaking News….Heated debate among Diwaniya PC members for postponing Saturday session,” 6/15/13

- “Citizen bloc, Ahrar bloc to object nominating Zurfi as Najaf Governor,” 6/13/13

- “Diwaniyah nominates Awadi as its Governor,” 6/9/13

- “Diyala National alliance agrees with KA to form local government of Diyala,” 6/13/13

- “Diyala PC fails in nominating new Governor, PC Chairman,” 6/13/13

- “Member of Diyala New Coalition joins citizen Coalition,” 6/8/13

- “Nasiri nominated as Thi-Qar Governor, Sahlani as its Chairman,” 6/16/13

- “SLC nominates Mosawi to replace Zurfi as Najaf Governor,” 6/9/13

- “Strategic agreement between Citizen Coalition and SLC to form Diwaniya local government,” 5/8/13

- “Urgent…Citizen, Ahrar Coalitions to form “Dhi-Qar Unified Alliance,”” 6/8/13

Alsumaria, “Raad Hamza capacity as Chairman of the Board of Babylon and honest meaning conservative law,” 6/15/13

Buratha News, “Basra coalition chaired the first meeting of the new provincial council next week, and state of law divided against itself in the naming of posts,” 6/7/13

- “Diyala National Alliance announces alliance with Kurdistan and the formation of local government in Diyala through next 72 hours,” 6/13/13

- “Liberal block separates the office manager in Dhi Qar and members of the Provincial Council,” 6/16/13

Al-Mada, “Basra first pulls the rug out from under Maliki’s coalition and achieve the formation of the provincial council majority,” 6/10/13

- “Basra First: We give Maliki a few days to fix errors Abdul Samad,” 6/12/13

- “Blocks Hakim and al-Sadr and the Dawa Party organize indoors ally in Najaf to lead the new government,” 6/8/13

- “Maliki wraps Sadr and Hakim alliance in Dhi Qar, Najaf .. and gets 5 committees of the Government of Wasit,” 6/15/13

- “Maliki’s bloc announces the formation of a coalition (the sons of Dhi Qar) to win the leadership of the provincial council and exclude the Liberals the Citizen’s Alliance,” 6/13/13

- “State of Law approaching loss of the Governments of Basra and Baghdad,” 5/1/13

- “State of Law tempt the Supreme Council granting 3 provinces for the sake of retaining management of Basra,” 5/23/13

-“Tripartite agreement in Babylon, state of law grants the position of governor and deputy head of the provincial council and gives the position of President of the Council to bring together competencies,” 6/9/13

National Iraqi News Agency, “”Basra is First coalition” gets the governor’s position; Badr bloc is seeking the presidency of the Council,” 6/9/13

- “BREAKING NEWS Majid Nasrawi elected Governor of Basra,” 6/12/13

- “Citizen bloc chooses its candidates for the post of governor of Babil,” 6/12/13

Al Rafidayn, “Liberals and the Citizen’s Alliance and Fadhila agree on the formation of local governments in 7 provinces,” 5/12/13

Al Rayy, “Diwaniya, a coalition of seven ten members to form a provincial council,” 6/9/13

- “Liberals decide to separate three of its members, including members of the Council of the province of Dhi Qar,” 6/15/13

- “Rename the governor of Najaf, Adnan al governor of the new cycle,” 6/13/13

- “Talks are continuing between state of law and the citizen’s alliance in Diwaniya to form a government,” 6/14/13

Sadah, Ali Abel, “Iraqi Shiite Political Leaders Opposing Al-Maliki,” Al-Monitor, 5/13/13

Shafaq News, “Hakim’s coalition gains governor position in three provinces,” 5/18/13

- “Najaf Council fails to convene its first session,” 6/9/13

Sotaliraq, “The rule of law in Basra ally of other powers and the number one candidate in the Iraqi approaching them,” 5/2/13

Ur News Agency, “Iraq’s Maliki’s coalition bargaining: Diyala versus Baghdad!” 6/13/13

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