Friday, May 21, 2010

Iraq’s Politics Not Much Changed By 2010 Election

Certification of Iraq’s final election results is hopefully coming soon after the manual recount of Baghdad province and the deBaathification of candidates are now over. Neither resulted in a major change in the number of seats won by each list. Iyad Allawi still came out the winner with 91 seats, while Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law was second with 89. Allawi’s win was unexpected, and the result of the Shiite vote being divided between Maliki and the Sadrist-Supreme Council-led Iraqi National Alliance. Even more so was the Sadrist backed Iraqi National Gathering winning the most seats, 39, of any single political party. That was accomplished by some shrewd organizing of its followers

Despite those two surprises, the general map of Iraqi politics has not changed much. That’s shown in a comparison of the 2005 to the 2010 parliamentary elections. In 2005 the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance and the Sadrist Upholders of the Message won 130 seats, 47.2% of the total. Those parties split in two in 2010 to form State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance that together captured 159 seats, 48.9% of the total. In 2005 the Kurdish Alliance and the Kurdistan Islamic Union won 58 seats, 21.0% of the total, and in 2010 the three Kurdish lists together won 57 seats, 17.5% of the total. The two major changes between the votes were the decline of the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front, and the growth in popularity of the nationalist lists. In the last election, the Iraqi Accordance Front won 44 seats, 16% of the total, making it the third largest list in parliament. In 2009 the Front disintegrated, and only ended up winning 6 seats, 1.8% of the total in 2010. The nationalist/secular parties on the other hand increased in popularity, largely at the expense of the Accordance Front. In 2005 the Iraqi National List, Iraqi National Dialogue Front, the Reconciliation and Liberation List, and the Iraqi Nation List took 40 seats together, 14.5% of the total. In 2010 the Iraqi National Movement and the Unity of Iraq Alliance tallied 95 seats, 29.2%. If the Sunni and nationalist lists of 2005 were added together it would be almost the same at 30.5%.

The next Iraqi government is also going to look a lot like the old one. After a long drawn out process the two main Shiite lists, State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance merged together in May 2010. That was done to keep them in the leadership of the new government, and prevent Allawi from becoming prime minister again. They are expected to join with the Kurds, and eventually Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement to form another national unity government, made up of almost the exact same groups that took power in 2005. The Shiite parties will still hold onto the premiership, a Kurd will end up president, and the Sunnis and secular nationalists will be playing third fiddle. Below are the complete 2010 election results by lists and individual parties.

Winning Lists: 2010 Parliamentary Election

Names in parenthesis are party leaders, % is percentage of 325 member parliament

Iraqi National Movement – Iyad Allawi – 91 seats
  • Other political parties – 33 seats, 10.2%
  • Iraqi National List (Iyad Allawi) – 31 seats, 9.5%
  • Renewal List (Vice President Tariq Hashemi) – 20 seats, 6.2%
  • Iraqi National Dialogue Front (Saleh al-Mutlaq) – 5 seats, 1.5%
  • Compensatory seats – 2 seats, 0.6%

State of Law – Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – 89 seats
  • Dawa Party (Nouri al-Maliki) – 35 seats, 10.8%
  • Other political parties – 31 seats, 9.5%
  • Dawa – Iraq – 20 seats, 6.2%
  • Independents (Oil Minister Hussain Shahristani) – 1 seat, 0.3%
  • Compensatory seats – 2 seats, 0.6%

Iraqi National Alliance – Ammar al-Hakim – 70 seats
  • Iraqi National Conference (Moqtada al-Sadr) – 39 seats, 12.0%
  • Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) (Ammar al-Hakim) – 20 seats, 6.2%
  • Fadhila Party (Hashem Ali) – 7 seats, 2.2%
  • Iraqi National Congress (Ahmad Chalabi) – 1 seat, 0.3%
  • Reform Movement (Ibrahim al-Jaafari) – 1 seat, 0.3%
  • Compensatory seats – 2 seats, 0.6%

Kurdish Alliance – Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani – 43 seats
  • Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (KRG President Massoud Barzani) – 28 seats, 8.6%
  • Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) (President Jalal al-Talabani) – 14 seats, 4.3%
  • Compensatory seats – 1 seat, 0.3%

Change List – Nishurwan Mustafa – 8 seats
  • Change List (Nishurwan Mustafa) – 7 eats, 2.2%
  • New Iraq (Mohammed Hussein) – 1 seat, 0.3%

Iraqi Accordance Front – Osama Tawfak Tikriti – 6 seats
  • Independent Tribes (Omar Hamad) – 4 seats, 1.2%
  • Iraqi Islamic Party (Osama Tawfak Tikriti) – 2 seats, 0.6%

Unity of Iraq Alliance – Interior Minister Jawad Bolani – 4 seats
  • Iraqi Constitutional Party (Interior Minister Jawad Bolani) – 3 seats, 0.9%
  • Iraqi Awakening Conference (Sheikh Ahmad Abu Risha) – 1 seat, 0.3%
  • Iraqi Republican Gathering – 0 seats, 0.0%

Kurdistan Islamic Union/Kurdistan Islamic Group
  • Kurdistan Islamic Union (Salahaddin Bahaeddin) – 4 seats, 1.2%
  • Kurdistan Islamic Group (Aziz Nazer) – 2 seats, 0.6%

Minorities – 8 seats, 2.4%

2010 Top 5 Political Parties
1. Iraqi National Gathering – Sadrists – 39 seats, 12.0%
2. Dawa Party – Maliki – 35 seats, 10.8%
3. Iraqi National List – Allawi – 31 seats, 9.5%
4. Patriotic Union of Kurdistan – Talabani – 23 seats, 7.1%
5. Renewal List – Hashemi – 20 seats, 6.2%
5. Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council – Hakim – 20 seats, 6.2%

Comparison 2010 vs 2005 Parliamentary Elections

Shiite Parties:
2010: State of Law + Iraqi National Alliance – 159 seats, 48.9% of total
2005: United Iraqi Alliance + Upholders of the Message – 130 seats, 47.2% of total

Kurdish Parties:
2010: Kurdish Alliance + Change List + Kurdistan Islamic Union/Kurdistan Islamic Group – 57 seats, 17.5% of total
2005: Kurdish Alliance + Kurdistan Islamic Union - 58 seats, 21.0% of total

Sunni Parties:
2010: Iraqi Accordance Front – 6 seats, 1.8% of total
2005 Iraqi Accordance Front – 44 seats, 16% of total

Nationalist/Secular Parties:
2010: Iraqi National Movement + Unity of Iraq Alliance – 95 seats, 29.2% of total
2005: Iraqi National List + Iraqi National Dialogue Front + Reconciliation and Liberation List, Iraqi Nation List – 40 seats, 14.5%

SOURCES

BBC, “Guide to Iraqi political parties,” 1/20/06

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Iraqi Accord Jabahat al-Tawafuq”
- “Iraqi National Alliance Al-I’itilaf Al-Watani Al-Iraqi”
- “Iraqi National Movement Al-Haraka al-Wataniya Al-Iraqiyya”
- “Kurdish Parties”
- “State of Law Dawlat al-Kanoon”
- “Unity Alliance of Iraq I’itilaf Wehdat al-Iraq”

Kazimi, Nibras, “About Those Sadrist Numbers,” Talisman Gate, 4/1/10

Sly, Liz, “Iraqi court upholds appeals of 9 winning parliamentary candidates,” Los Angeles Times, 5/18/10

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 4/30/10

8 comments:

Jason said...

Here's to hoping that the turnover from Tawafuq to nationalist, secular parties, and from ISCI to Dawa, lead to more change than is at first apparent.

Joel Wing said...

Unfortunatley probably not.

Anonymous said...

Iraqi Constitutional Party is Jawad Bolani. And Da'awa-Iraq is not Jafaar al-Sadr. There are other problems with your breakdown. You have misindentified the various MPs and their blocs, especially in the Allawi one. You are usually very accurate but I think you used an inaccurate source.

Joel Wing said...

The source was the April Inspector General for Reconstruction report and their source was the Iraqi Election Commission. Perhaps the problems were due o bad translation?

Joel Wing said...

What are the problems with the Allawi bloc? The names are party leaders. Allawi - National List, Hashemi - Renewal, Mutlaq - National Dialogue.

Joel Wing said...

I went through a couple more sources and tried to make some revisions on party leaders.

Anonymous said...

To add to your post a bit, here's something I think you'll find informative (http://www.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/showlink.aspx?bookmarkid=IXZ6C7YW51O1&preview=article&linkid=d0b18aa9-a0ab-40a0-98fb-58c695bf8b14&pdaffid=ZVFwBG5jk4Kvl9OaBJc5%2bg%3d%3d). Otherwise, what else is new?

MediaMentions

Joel Wing said...

Nothing much. The Kurds can't agree on the Kurdish Coalition. The Shiites can't agree on the next prime minister. Allawi is increasingly on the outside looking in because they only thing his people say is that he has the right to form the government and that's it. They are all still months away on agreeing upon a new ruling coalition.

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