Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Iraqi Deaths Continue To Drop In November 2010


The monthly death count figures for Iraq have just been released, and they show another drop in November 2010. Iraq Body Count recorded 298 deaths last month, the exact same amount as October. Icasuaties had 174 deaths, down from 185 in October. Iraq's Ministries reported 171 killed in November, compared to 293 in October. Those sources averaged out to 7.1 deaths per day, down from October's 8.3.

Deaths have been steadily decreased since reaching a yearly high in July. They went from an average of 14.9 deaths per day that month, to 13.8 in August, 7.7 in September, 8.3 in October, and 7.1 in November.

Weekly Attacks In Iraq July-Nov. 2010
(AKE/Iraq Business News)
Currently casualties are divorced from the number of attacks occurring in the country. July and August for example, had the highest casualties of the year. In the latter there were around 220 attacks  resulting in an average of 462.2 deaths, while the former had approximately 360 attacks, but the average number of deaths dropped to 430.6. What was the deciding factor in deaths each month wasn’t the overall number of attacks, or even the mass casualty incidents, but rather the casualties generated in the small, day-to-day operations by militants. In July, 35 were killed on the 7th,  and then 37 more on the 18th in Baghdad by suicide bombers. Then on the 21st a car bomb went off in Abu Sayda, Diyala killing 30. Explosives also struck Shiite pilgrims in Karbala on July 26, causing the loss of 35 people. Altogether, those high profile attacks cost 137 people. In August by contrast, 7-30 were killed by a combination of car and roadside bombs at a market in Kut, Wasit province on the 3rd, 45 died in bombings in Basra on the 7th, 58 army recruits were killed in Baghdad on the 17th by a suicide bomber, 30 more in Kut on the 25th, for a total of 163. July still ended up with more casualties than August even though it had more attacks and deadlier high-profile incidents. That meant more people lost their lives in a smaller number of incidents in July than in August.

Approx. Attacks/Avg. Deaths/High-Profile Attacks/Casualties High-Profile Attacks
July 2010: 220 attacks/462.2 deaths/4 attacks/137 deaths
August 2010: 360 attacks/430.6 deaths/4 attacks/163 deaths 

Overall, casualties have hardly changed since January 2009. For all of last year, there were an average of 10.1 deaths per day. In the eleven months of 2010 there have been an average of 9.7. Unfortunately, attacks are still a daily occurrence in Iraq. On the other hand, both security incidents and deaths are at their lowest level since the 2003 invasion.

Monthly Death Counts

Month Iraq Body Count Icasualties Iraqi Ministries Associated Press 
Avg. # Of Deaths Per Day 
Jan. 10 
259 
135 
196 
177 
6.1 
Feb. 
296 
236 
352 
255 
10.1 
Mar. 
311 
183 
367 
230 
8.7 
Apr. 
380 
259 
328 
321 
10.7
May 
372 
279 
337 
278 
10.3 
June 
353 
176 
284 
294 
9.4 
July 
424 
534 
535 
356 
14.9 
Aug. 
503 
363 
426 
N/A 
13.8 
Sep.  
242 
174 
273 
N/A 
7.7 
Oct. 
298 
185 
293 
N/A 
8.3 
Nov.  
298 
174 
171 
N/A 
7.1 

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, "Iraq monthly toll lowest in a year," 12/1/10

AKE Ltd., "Weekly Security Update for 8th Dec 2010," Iraq Business News, 12/8/10

Icasualties

Iraq Body Count

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