November 2012, looked like it was going to end well in terms
of security. The Shiite religious ceremony of Ashura went off relatively peacefully with only one small bombing. Then at the end of the month there
were two days of bombings and shootings across twelve cities in northern,
central, and southern Iraq that broke the calm. That last flurry of violence
seemed to boost the government’s numbers for the month above the previous one.
The far more accurate and reliable Iraq Body Count however, recorded a
five-month decline in casualties.
There were three different death counts for November, which
showed different trends. The Iraqi ministries reported 166 killed for the
month, up from 144 in October. Iraq Body Count’s early figure was 244 casualties, down from October’s 253. The Agence France Presse (AFP) wire
service has also started its own count, and recorded 160 fatalities in November, up from the previous month’s 136. The cause for the jump in the
government and AFP numbers was the string of attacks that occurred at the end
of the month. On November 27, Iraq Body Count had four bombings and three
shootings across Baghdad, Ramadi in Anbar province, Kirkuk and Hawija in Tamim,
Mosul in Ninewa, Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar, and Buhriz in Diyala that cost 38 lives.
Two days later, 49 were killed in Hilla in Babil, Karbala, Mosul, Taji in
Salahaddin, and Abu Ghraib and Besmaya in Baghdad. Overall, all three
organizations have been going in different directions. The government’s numbers
have consistently gone up and down with 325 in July, 164 in August, 365 in
September, 144 in October, and then 166 in November. AFP was showing a downward
trend with 278 in August, 253 in September, 136 in October, before hitting
November’s 160. Iraq Body Count on the other hand had a five-month decline from
523 in June to 461 in July to 403 in August, 363 in September, 253 in October,
and 244 in November. Since AFP’s numbers are so close to the government’s, and
low compared to Iraq Body Count’s it appears that they are both missing many of
the smaller incidents that regularly occur throughout Iraq that might only kill
1-2 people each.
Deaths In Iraq 2011-2012
Month
|
Iraq Body Count
|
Iraqi Ministries
|
Avg. Monthly Deaths
|
Avg. Daily Deaths
|
Jan. 2011
|
388
|
259
|
323
|
10.4
|
Feb.
|
251
|
167
|
209
|
7.4
|
Mar.
|
307
|
247
|
277
|
8.9
|
Apr.
|
287
|
211
|
249
|
8.3
|
May
|
378
|
177
|
277
|
8.9
|
Jun.
|
386
|
271
|
328
|
10.9
|
Jul.
|
305
|
259
|
282
|
9.0
|
Aug.
|
399
|
239
|
319
|
10.2
|
Sep.
|
396
|
185
|
290
|
9.6
|
Oct.
|
357
|
258
|
307
|
9.9
|
Nov.
|
273
|
187
|
230
|
7.6
|
Dec.
|
388
|
155
|
271
|
8.7
|
2011 Mo. Avg.
|
342
|
217
|
279
|
9.1
|
Jan. 2012
|
522
|
151
|
336
|
10.8
|
Feb.
|
355
|
150
|
252
|
8.7
|
Mar.
|
375
|
112
|
243
|
7.8
|
Apr.
|
370
|
126
|
248
|
8.2
|
May
|
293
|
132
|
212
|
6.8
|
Jun.
|
523
|
131
|
327
|
10.9
|
Jul.
|
461
|
325
|
393
|
12.6
|
Aug.
|
403
|
164
|
283
|
9.1
|
Sep.
|
363
|
365
|
364
|
12.1
|
Oct.
|
253
|
144
|
198
|
6.4
|
Nov.
|
244
|
166
|
205
|
6.8
|
2012 Mo. Avg.
|
378
|
178
|
278
|
9.1
|
Since Iraq Body Count captures more of the violence in the
country than the other two, its numbers showed that the insurgent’s summer
offensive is over. For the last several years militants have picked up their
operations during the summer. Al Qaeda in Iraq’s leader Abu Bakr al-Bahgdadi dubbed this year’s campaign Breaking Walls in July. The results were
immediately seen. The average number of daily deaths based upon Iraq Body Count
and the government’s ministries went from 6.8 in May to 10.9 in June, 12.6 in
July, 9.1 in August, and 12.1 in September before dropping to 6.4 in October
and 6.8 in November. Next month will likely have low figures as well until
January when the Shiite’s celebrate Arbayeen. Al Qaeda in Iraq has hit that
pilgrimage the last several years. Then things will repeat again with a dip
until the summer arrives. This has become the annual pattern in Iraq, and is
unlikely to change without a dramatic re-alignment in the country’s politics
that would offer Sunni insurgents a means to participate openly in society.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraq Unrest AFP Count”
- “Iraq violence rose in November,” 12/1/12
Iraq Body Count
Al Jazeera, “Iraqi security officers killed in clashes,”
7/26/12
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