John Drake is the head of Global Intake at the British risk
mitigation firm AKE. It publishes weekly reports on violence in Iraq, which are
used by companies, NGOs, and media outlets that operate in the country. Below
is an interview with Drake reviewing the security situation in Iraq last year.
1. How does AKE
collect its information on attacks and casualties in Iraq?
We use a combination of open and closed sources to work out
what is happening in the country. We cross reference a range of publicly
available news reports with statements from contacts, official sources, and
employees on the ground to verify as much as possible. Unfortunately this will
never be as accurate as a full, comprehensive survey, but for now it provides
us with a good indication of the main trends, issues and risks affecting the
country.
2. Many groups will
point to central Iraq as the most dangerous part of the country, and name
provinces like Baghdad and Ninewa, but can you break down what are the most
dangerous cities, because there’s a wide variation between the urban areas
within each governorate.
The most dangerous cities in Iraq are Mosul, Fallujah,
Baquba, Kirkuk and Baghdad, which regularly see the majority of the country’s
attacks. However, clusters and spikes occur in numerous other urban areas.
In 2012 the most hostile province was Ninewa in the north,
which saw an average of 1-2 attacks per day. Most of the incidents were
concentrated in the city of Mosul. Otherwise however, it was the central region
which experienced the bulk of the violence.
Baghdad experienced an average of 1 attack per day, although
conditions appear to have eased towards the latter part of the year. Security
measures have gradually increased in the city while militants appear to have
directed their focus to other parts of the central region. Anbar, Diyala and
Salahaddin province all saw an average of 1 attack per day as well, slightly
more than Tamim province, which saw around 6 attacks per week, and
significantly more than Basra province, which saw an average of 3 attacks per
month.
3. Today, Basra and
Maysan provinces are getting lots of investment due to the oil fields there.
What’s security like in those two areas?
Basra and Maysan provinces see comparatively few incidents
of violence. Maysan province saw around 2-3 attacks per quarter last year,
making it even quieter than Basra. Security measures are often more relaxed
than the central region, because the pace of attacks is far lower, but
community vigilance is often higher, and terrorist groups find it harder to
operate in the area, particularly if they are aligned with radical Islamist
organizations affiliated with al-Qaeda. Such groups have little in the way of support
in the south. Shiite militant organizations, including those affiliated with
Iran have traditionally had greater influence, but they are not currently
engaged in violence. This could change in the future, but for now incidents are
relatively low level.
4. In Iraq, there is
not always a direct correlation between the number of deaths and the number of
attacks per month. In January 2011 and 2012 for example, there was an increase
in casualties compared to December. Was there a jump in security incidents in
January for those two years or were there just more deadly mass casualty
attacks?
The religious event of Arbaeen took place in January in
2011, 2012 and 2013. This event sees large numbers of Shiite worshippers
gathering at holy shrines around the country, presenting terrorist
organizations seeking to stir up sectarian strife with a large target. Crowds
are difficult to protect, and the impact of mass-casualty attacks can be highly
emotive. It only takes one suicide bomber to cause potentially dozens of
casualties in such an environment, and as such, the last few Januarys have seen
a rise in casualty figures, even though the number of attacks hasn’t
necessarily increased.
5. In the last two
years, there was also an increase in deaths during the middle of the year.
Again, was that due to more security incidents during that period or just some
large bombings?
Since 2003 Iraq has traditionally seen an increase in
violence over the course of the summer. Over the last two years it has mainly
been a rise in the overall number of attacks rather than specific mass casualty
bombings, but these have continued with relative frequency nonetheless.
6. Many people
predicted that the withdrawal of the American military at the end of 2011,
would lead to an increase in violence in Iraq. Was there any difference between
2011 when U.S. troops were in the country and 2012 when they were gone in terms
of attacks and deaths?
Conditions could still deteriorate in the country. The U.S.
withdrawal wasn’t necessarily going to prompt a mass increase in violence, but
it has removed a layer of security in the event that the number of attacks
escalate. Overall, the number of attacks hasn’t significantly altered since the
middle of 2009, regardless of whether or not U.S. troops have been stationed in
the country.
7. Do you think 2013
will maintain the current status quo or do you see some events on the horizon
that could change things?
Current levels of violence could rumble on throughout the
year, with occasional escalations, spikes and mass-casualty bombings. However,
in 2013, as in any year since 2009, the situation will remain both fragile and
tense. A single incident such as the destruction of a significantly emotive
site such as a religious shrine or a breakdown in relations between Baghdad and
the Kurdish Regional Government for example could provoke a deterioration in
security conditions, but there is no certainty that such a development will
take place this year.
9. What do you see as
the future for the insurgency in Iraq? Do you think they still have a lot of
staying power or can you see a time when they begin to fall off?
Insurgents are likely looking very closely at Syria, and
many may have already crossed the border to fight the Assad regime. Their aim
is to create a para-state and they will have more chance of doing so in parts
of Syria for the time being, and if successful they could potentially use the
country as a base for re-invigorating their Iraqi campaign. For now, they will
likely continue to pressure the Iraqi authorities in majority-Sunni areas such
as Ninewa, Tamim, and the central provinces. It would take a lot to dislodge
them completely.
10. Finally, there is
a lot of criminal activity in Iraq. Do you have any observations on the crime
rate or gangs that operate in the country?
The security forces are stretched with ongoing political
violence, constraining their ability to deal with crime. Many of the current
criminals are former insurgents, likely with some experience at evading the
authorities. Many could even be desensitized and therefore more willing to
engage in violent crime. Organized criminality will likely remain a big concern
for the authorities until they are able to build their capacity. One potential
positive sign, which could be taken from the country’s crime rate is that
criminality is often seen as the final stage of an insurgency. Ongoing
organized criminality could therefore be the last stage in Iraq’s nationwide
security crisis, although the timeline for eradicating it will remain uncertain,
and as mentioned above, conditions could always worsen again depending on the
country’s fractious domestic political and inter-communal relations.
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