Iraq was a very divisive war in the United States. The
decision to invade in 2003 split the public, and the Democrats and Republicans.
A new poll by the Pew Research Center however, shows that many Americans now
share a similar view of the conflict. This is the result of several factors.
First, many Republicans who were always the most supportive of the war, now
want to blame President Obama for Iraq, and therefore do not see things as
positive as they once did. Democrats, many of which were against the war, now
have a slightly better opinion, because of the withdrawal of American troops.
Independents on the other hand, are right in the middle. Overall, members of
the U.S.’s two major parties are now more likely to share the same ideas on
Iraq, but for completely different reasons.
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| (Pew Research) |
The Pew poll showed that there was a narrowing of opinions
amongst Americans on the Iraq war. The organization questioned 924 people in
March 2013, with a margin of error of +/-3.9%. The survey showed that those
that were for or against the war have now come closer together. On the question
of whether the United States had achieved its goals in Iraq, respondents were
almost evenly split. 46% said that the U.S. had succeeded, while 43% said that
it had failed. That was a dramatic change from the previous three polls that
showed a much wider divide on that issue. In 2006 for example, 54% stated that
America had succeeded, compared to 40% who believed it had failed. The gap
widened in 2010 when 58% responded that the U.S. had succeeded versus 35% who
said it had failed, and 56% who thought America had succeeded in 2011, compared
to 33% who said it had failed. The same change was seen when people were asked
was the U.S. right or wrong to use force against Iraq. 44% said it was wrong,
against 41% who said it was right. In 2003, 72% said it was the right decision,
compared to only 22% who were opposed. From 2005-2007, when Iraq was in the
middle of its civil war, those polled were almost evenly split between the two
positions. Then from 2007-2010 when security improved, oddly more thought the
Bush administration had made the wrong choice. By 2011 however, 46% believed it
was wrong to use force, and 48% said it was right, which was very similar to
the 2013 results. The decline in those that felt it was right to invade Iraq
was due to changes amongst Republicans. In 2006, 82% of Republicans believed
that the U.S. had succeeded in Iraq, but that took a sharp drop afterwards. In
2010 it was down to 68%, followed by 48% in 2012, and 56% in 2013. A decline in
positive opinion was also seen amongst Independents who went from 54% saying
yes in 2006 to only 41% by 2013. Democrats on the other hand have increasingly
seen things turn for the better going from only 34% who thought American had
succeeded to 56% in 2010 and 2012, and then down slightly to 45% by 2013.
Finally, the partisan divide continued when respondents were asked whether the
Iraq war was the right decision. In 2003, 90% of Republicans said yes, steadily
dropping to 58% in 2013, the lowest percentage since the question was first
asked. For Independents, they started at 66% saying yes in 2003, then saw a
large drop to 43% by 2005, before leveling off to 33% in 2013. Democrats
followed a similar pattern going from 50% saying yes in 2003 to just 17% by
2008, but then recovering a bit to 33% replying yes by 2013. Many of these
changes can be explained through partisan politics. Because George Bush started
the Iraq war, Republicans have been more supportive of it, even to this day.
Their opinion did drop off slightly as the war did not go as planned, but now has
reached its lowest level. That’s because Republican politicians and
conservative pundits have largely condemned President Obama’s decision to have
a full military withdrawal, which was actually negotiated by the Bush White
House. Many Republicans wanted to maintain a residual force in Iraq, and have
claimed rightly that Obama has put Iraq on the backburner. In comparison,
Democrats were mostly opponents of the war, but their opinions have actually
become more positive in the last few years. That’s likely, because Obama was
elected president, and pulled out American troops. That’s the reason why the
majority still disagrees with the invasion, but now think the U.S. has
succeeded.
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| (Pew Research) |
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| (Pew Research) |
The Iraq war continues to divide the American politic, but
opinions have changed from the early years. Most Americans now are evenly split
over whether the U.S. succeeded in Iraq, and whether invading was the right
choice. This has occurred for different reasons, largely partisan politics, but
it does show a general consensus now forming about the conflict 10 years after
its start. The real lasting affects will be seen in how it affects policy,
rather than the public. President Obama for example, has shown a strong
aversion to getting involved in another Middle Eastern war as shown in his
stance towards Libya and Syria. The military also seems to still be debating
the merits and faults of counterinsurgency. These effects were actually
predicted back in the winter of 2005 by Professor John Mueller of Ohio State
University in an article in Foreign Affairs entitled “The Iraq Syndrome.” Professor Mueller wrote that Iraq could have a similar affect upon American
politics that Vietnam did. He noted that the Republicans would be hurt by the
war, because they started it, that it would create intense partisan divisions
more than previous wars, and that Bush’s foreign policy strategies such as
unilateralism, preventive wars, and preemption would all be casualties. Those
points have all come true showing that while Iraq is hardly talked about in the
West today it is still having a lasting impact upon how Washington thinks.
SOURCES
Mueller, John, “The Iraq Syndrome,” Foreign Affairs,
November/December 2005
Pew Research, “A Decade Later, Iraq War Divides the Public,”
3/18/13
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