Iraq Casualty Figures For February 2013

There were conflicting numbers for casualties in February 2013. That has been an on going trend between Iraq Body Count and the Iraqi government for the last few years. Still, the two have followed roughly the same pattern since 2011.

Iraq Body Count (IBC) and Baghdad’s numbers for deaths last month went in different directions. IBC’s preliminary count was 349 in February 2013, almost the same as January’s 341. Since 2011, Iraq Body Count has recorded a jump in deaths in January as Shiite pilgrims were targeted. January 2013 was slightly different, because not only were Shiites hit, but so were Kurds, Turkmen, and government forces. This year was also a departure, because IBC had deaths remaining high in February rather than dropping as they had the last two years. The government had the number killed going in the opposite direction. It had 177 dead in January, down from 208 in December. February continued that downward trend with 136 fatalities. Agence France Presse has also been tracking violence. It had 246 deaths in January, and 220 in February. If IBC and the government statistics are averaged out they come out to 259 killed in January, and 242 in February. Since last month has fewer days the averaged number of people killed per day actually went up from 8.3 in January to 8.6 in February. Since Iraq Body Count is considered the most reliable of the three, it appears that insurgents have launched a new offensive, which started around December 2012. Still, it is not as deadly as the last two years. In January 2011 for instance, 389 were killed, and in January 2012 524.

Deaths In Iraq 2011-2013

Month	Iraq Body Count	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan. 2011	389	259	324	10.4
Feb.	252	167	209	7.4
Mar.	310	247	278	8.9
Apr.	289	211	250	8.3
May	381	177	279	9.0
Jun.	386	271	328	10.9
Jul.	307	259	283	9.1
Aug.	401	239	320	10.3
Sep.	397	185	291	9.7
Oct.	366	258	312	10.0
Nov.	278	187	232	7.7
Dec.	388	155	271	8.7
2011 Mo. Avg.	345	217	281	9.2
2011 Totals	4,144	2,615	-	-
Jan. 2012	524	151	337	10.8
Feb.	356	150	253	9.0
Mar.	376	112	244	7.8
Apr.	392	126	259	8.6
May	304	132	218	7.0
Jun.	529	131	330	11.0
Jul.	466	325	395	12.7
Aug.	422	164	293	9.4
Sep.	396	365	380	12.6
Oct.	290	144	217	7.0
Nov.	238	166	202	6.7
Dec.	275	208	241	7.7
2012 Mo. Avg.	380	181	280	9.1
2012 Totals	4,568	2,174	-	-
Jan. 2013	341	177	259	8.3
Feb.	349	136	242	8.6

Despite the government’s official numbers being far below those of Iraq Body Count’s, the two have followed a somewhat similar trend. From January to November 2011, the two had the same up and down pattern. After that however, the two diverged as IBC recorded a huge jump in casualties in the opening of 2012 while the government claimed there was a decline. In the summer the two re-converged, seeing an increase in violence, which tapered off after September. The two have once again gone in opposite directions since December. The likely cause of the difference between the two is politics. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has de facto control of the Interior and Defense Ministries, which are two of the three main sources of the government’s figures. Maliki is trying to portray his country as a stable and secure one, and therefore has a vested interest in keeping the statistics low.

Comparing Iraq Body Count to Iraqi Government Fatality Figures 2011-2013

(RED = IBC, BLUE = Avg. IBC & Iraqi Govt GREEN = Iraqi Government)

The differences between the government and Iraq Body Count over deaths in Iraq will likely continue for the foreseeable future. The gap between the two is usually considerable, but an analysis of the overall trend shows that they have gone in the same direction most, but not all of the time in the last two years. Most importantly, despite the monthly ups and downs, both have shown that militants are trying to make a comeback. Starting last year, both groups recorded a spike in violence. With U.S. forces out of the country, the Iraqi military and police no longer carrying out counterinsurgency operations, and on-going political disputes there is more room now for insurgents to operate throughout the country. That has likely prolonged their life after the majority of Sunnis turned against them with the end of the civil war. As long as Shiites continue to protest the bombings, but let the government handle security, this will continue to be a serious terrorist situation, but not a sign of an impeding sectarian conflict.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq casualties from violence (2013)”

Iraq Body Count

Reuters, “Iraq monthly death toll down in February,” 3/2/13