Protests started in Anbar province in December 2012 when
arrest warrants were issued for some of then Finance Minister Rafi Issawi’s
guards. They quickly spread to other Sunni areas of the country, as many other
people were feeling unhappy with their representatives and how the government
was acting, and decided to take their frustration out into the streets. A mix
of tribes, political parties, clerics, and insurgents quickly came to support
the demonstrations, which created divisions as each was in it for their own
ends. That has come to the fore as the Mutahidun Party is offering to talk with
Baghdad over ending the protests now that the 2013 provincial elections are
over.
The Mutahidun Party has recently taken steps to put an end
to the demonstrations. In October 2013, elements of the Anbar protest movement
announced that they had appointed Governor Ahmed Diab to negotiate with the central government. This came after a series of meetings between activists
and Anbar officials over what they should do next. It was deiced that Diab
would present a series of demands to Baghdad. Those include the release of prisoners, sectarian balance in the government, stopping
the use of the anti-terrorism law, ending deBaathification, and amending the
constitution. A State of Law parliamentarian immediately welcomed this
initiative as the governor was a legitimate representative of the province, and
therefore had the authority to talk with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. At the
beginning of the month Governor Diab travelled to Baghdad to meet with the
premier where things reportedly went well. Diab is newly elected to office,
and comes from Speaker of Parliament Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun Party. It has
been speculated that now that the provincial elections are over Mutahidun is no
longer interested in the protest movement. Offering to talk with Maliki to gain
some concessions could be a way to put them to rest. The prime minister is
interested in closing down the demonstrations as he has consistently criticized
them, and blamed them in part for the rising violence in the country. That
gives ample reason for both sides to try to find a way out. There are two
problems involved in achieving that goal. First, Maliki offered some reforms before such as changing the deBaathification process, but it was blocked in
parliament. With national elections next year it is very unlikely that the
leading parties would agree to any major changes that could hurt them in the
polls. Second, there’s no guarantee that any deal cut between Mutahidun and the
prime minister would dissuade the crowds from ending their protests.
The later issue has to do with the divided nature of the
protest movement. There are three main trends within the demonstrations. One is a reformist group that wants changes in the government supported by
Mutahidun and Sheikh Abdul Malik al-Saadi the leading cleric behind the
protests. A second faction is led by the Iraqi Islamic Party and wants to form
Sunni regions in Iraq. A third wants armed struggle and is connected to the
insurgency. Those differences have already led to criticism of Diab’s mission
to. One sheikh said that the governor only represented Mutahidun, and called
for Sheikh al-Saadi to go to Baghdad instead. An organizer in Fallujah
connected to other sites in Hawija and Tikrit on the other hand, rejected the
governor outright, and called for the government to come directly to the
protest areas directly. Whether that was a legitimate demand or not is not
known since all three of those locations have been connected to militants.
These splits have been apparent before when talk of a delegation from Anbar was discussed back in June 2013. That brought up instant criticisms from some
sectors. That means if Governor Diab was able to make any sort of deal with
Maliki it would only have an impact upon those protesters connected with his
party. The rest would be unlikely to quite down for some time, although there’s
a chance that they may putter out if they see some progress and witness others
going home. That must be what both the prime minister and Mutahidun are hoping
for.
Iraq’s Sunni protests have been going on for ten months now
and have nothing to show for it. At least one party, Mutahidun, is ready to be
done with them. The list did good but not great in the 2013 provincial
elections showing that its alignment with the demonstrations did not mean
instant success at the polls. Now it wants to move onto other matters and has
talked to some parts of the Anbar protests to back Governor Diab to open
up a dialogue with Premier Maliki. Now the hard part begins, which involves
getting something substantive done in Baghdad that will appease the activists.
That’s the real issue since Maliki’s executive powers only covers a few of the
demands delivered by Diab. If anything is achieved through these talks there
will be plenty of detractors, but the prime minister and Mutahidun are hoping
that a little effort will go a long way to eventually ending the protests.
SOURCES
Abbas, Mushreq, “Iraq’s Sunni Protesters Divided Over
Government Negotiations,” Al-Monitor, 10/14/13
AIN, “Anbar tribes to negotiate with government to end
protests’ crisis,” 5/30/13
National Iraqi News Agency, “Chief of Ubaid Tribe says that
Anbar protestors, tribal chiefs support negotiations with the government,”
6/1/13
- “Maliki’s Advisor: Maliki’s meeting with Anbar’s governor
was positive and fruitful,” 10/7/13
- “Sit-in of Anbar warn the governor to form a delegation to
negotiate on behalf of them,” 6/5/13
New Sabah, “Anbar delegate their portfolios to fight
negotiations,” 10/5/13
Radio Nawa, “Dulaimi Amir warns al-Maliki keep the army in
Anbar,” 6/1/13
Al Tamimi, Aymenn, “Pessimism clouds any survey of Islamist
protests in Iraq,” The National, 8/19/13
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