August 2013 saw Iraq’s oil
industry bounce back. Its exports had been declining for three months before
they rebounded in August, and so did the price for its crude. The latter was
due to fears of an American strike upon Syria for its alleged use of chemical
weapons. That set off international petroleum markets to Baghdad’s benefit.
Iraq however is still stuck in a 17-month plateau that it is hoping to escape
after major renovation work is completed on its southern oil infrastructure.
Iraq’s petroleum exports and
profits both increased in August. For the month it averaged 2.57 million barrels a day, the second highest mark for the year. The Basra pipeline
maintained its level from the previous month going from an average of 2.32
million barrels in July to 2.30 million in August. The cause of the country’s
recovery was the Kirkuk line to Turkey, which finally overcame a huge number of leaks that put it out of action for most of June and July. It went from
283,800 barrels in May to 193,300 in June then 180,600 in July to 270,900 in
August. That extra supply came just in time as the price for Iraqi crude went
up as well to $104.45. From August to June Iraqi crude was selling for below
$100 per barrel, but then finally started going up in July on renewed tensions
in the Middle East. That culminated in a spike in August as commodity traders
were scared by news that the United States might strike Syria for its alleged
use of chemical weapons. How exactly that was supposed to affect the world
petroleum market was not clear as Damascus is not a major player, but traders
used it to their advantage to boost prices, and Iraq came out a winner as a
result. For August, it earned $8.356 billion the highest amount since $8.578
billion in October 2012. In 2013, Iraq has averaged 2.45 million barrels just
slightly above 2.41 million in 2012, while prices have dropped from $106.20
last year to $101.90 this year. That has meant profits have stagnated as well
going from an average of $7.835 billion per month in 2012 to $7.594 billion in
2013. After the Oil Ministry opened up some new mooring points in Basra at the
beginning of 2012 there has been no meaningful growth in the country’s exports
leaving it at a plateau for the last 17-months. Baghdad is hoping to overcome
that issue with some major maintenance work in the south, which started in
September, followed by new mooring points and some more infrastructure
additions.
Iraq Oil Exports And Profits
2011-2013
Month
|
Avg.
Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
|
Avg. Price Per Barrel
|
Revenue (Bill)
|
Jan. 11
|
2.16
|
$90.78
|
$6.082
|
Feb.
|
2.20
|
$98.44
|
$6.064
|
Mar.
|
2.15
|
$107.13
|
$7.167
|
Apr.
|
2.14
|
$114.26
|
$7.342
|
May
|
2.22
|
$108
|
$7.45
|
Jun.
|
2.27
|
$105.17
|
$7.173
|
Jul.
|
2.16
|
$108.79
|
$7.311
|
Aug.
|
2.18
|
$104.91
|
$7.124
|
Sep.
|
2.10
|
$104.89
|
$6.619
|
Oct.
|
2.08
|
$104.04
|
$6.742
|
Nov.
|
2.13
|
$106.59
|
$6.833
|
Dec.
|
2.14
|
$106.18
|
$7.061
|
2011 Avg.
|
2.16
|
$105.00
|
$6.913
|
Jan. 12
|
2.10
|
$109.08
|
$7.123
|
Feb.
|
2.01
|
$112.92
|
$6.595
|
Mar.
|
2.31
|
$117.99
|
$8.472
|
Apr.
|
2.50
|
$116.79
|
$8.795
|
May
|
2.45
|
$103.03
|
$7.831
|
Jun.
|
2.40
|
$90.09
|
$6.487
|
Jul.
|
2.51
|
$97.14
|
$7.577
|
Aug.
|
2.56
|
$106.22
|
$8.445
|
Sep.
|
2.59
|
$107.59
|
$8.371
|
Oct.
|
2.62
|
$105.51
|
$8.578
|
Nov.
|
2.62
|
$104.32
|
$8.200
|
Dec.
|
2.34
|
$103.72
|
$7.551
|
2012
Avg.
|
2.41
|
$106.20
|
$7.835
|
Jan. 13
|
2.35
|
$104.92
|
$7.672
|
Feb.
|
2.53
|
$107.66
|
$7.644
|
Mar.
|
2.41
|
$103.76
|
$7.772
|
Apr.
|
2.62
|
$98.70
|
$7.764
|
May
|
2.48
|
$97.23
|
$7.477
|
Jun.
|
2.33
|
$97.41
|
$6.799
|
Jul.
|
2.32
|
$101.00
|
$7.272
|
Aug.
|
2.57
|
$104.45
|
$8.356
|
2013 Avg.
|
2.45
|
$101.90
|
$7.594
|
Oil
Exports Through Basra 2012-2013
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
February
1.639 mil/bar/day
March 1.917
mil/bar/day
April 2.115
mil/bar/day
May 2.086 mil/bar/day
June 2.085
mil/bar/day
July 2.216
mil/bar/day
August
2.252 mil/bar/day
September
2.178 mil/bar/day
October
2.172 mil/bar/day
November
2.122 mil/bar/day
December
2.022 mil/bar/day
2012 Avg. 2.042 mil/bar/day
January
2013 2.093 mil/bar/day
February
2.196 mil/bar/day
March 2.1
mil/bar/day
April 2.31
mil/bar/day
May 2.19
mil/bar/day
June 2.13
mil/bar/day
July 2.32
mil/bar/day
August 2.30
mil/bar/day
2013 Avg. 2.204 mil/bar/day
Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012-2013
January
2012 393,500 bar/day
February
375,800 bar/day
March
400,000 bar/day
April
393,300 bar/day
May 364,500
bar/day
June
316,600 bar/day
July
300,000 bar/day
August
312,900 bar/day
September
420,000 bar/day
October
451,600 bar/day
November
426,600 bar/day
December
325,800 bar/day
2012 Avg. 373,300 bar/day
January
2013 264,500 bar/day
February
339,200 bar/day
March
316,100 bar/day
April
306,600 bar/day
May 283,800
bar/day
June
193,300 bar/day
July
180,600 bar/day
August
270,900 bar/day
2013 Avg. 269,375 bar/day
The ups and downs that Iraq’s
hydrocarbon sector has experienced in the last few months are the norm. Leaks,
bad weather, and repair work often occur causing exports to fluctuate. August
was simply one of those months when those issues did not have a large affect.
The early numbers for September however point to a decline due to the work in
Basra. The Oil Ministry is hoping that it can overcome some of those issues
when new infrastructure is added. That can’t happen quickly enough as the
country still has not reached its vast potential.
SOURCES
Agence France
Presse, “Iraq oil exports ‘rebound in August,’” 9/1/13
Dananer,
“Start exporting oil from Gharraf field 35 thousand barrels per day,” 9/1/13
Al Rafidayn,
“Iraq’s oil exports rise in August thanks to the southern fields,” 9/2/13
Rasheed,
Ahmed, “Iraq undecided on full Basra oil port maintenance in Sept,” Reuters,
8/15/13
Razzouk,
Nayla, “Iraq Threatens to Cut Revenue to Kurds Over Pipeline,” Bloomberg,
9/24/13
Republic of
Iraq Ministry of Oil, “Iraq Crude Oil Exports – August 2013,” 10/1/13
Reuters, “Iraq southern oil
exports drop in Sept,” 10/1/13
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