2014 Deadliest Year In Iraq Since Civil War Period

Unsurprisingly 2014 ended as one of the deadliest years since the civil war period of 2005-2008 in Iraq. Violence was high in the first half of the year, and then exploded during the summer offensive. Fortunately, by the winter attacks were going down as the Iraqi forces rallied and started to retake lost territory.

Musings On Iraq counted 10,209 security incidents during the year. That averaged out to 27.9 per day. 2014 was a year of two halves however. From January to June there were an average of 31.8 attacks per day with over 900 incidents each month. In July there was 937, but then the numbers slowly began to drop. In the second half of the year the number of average attacks per day went down to 24.1. That was a sign that the insurgents had lost the initiative and had been thrown on the defense in several areas of the country.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	244	363	733
Jan 8-14	272	364	676
Jan 15-21	205	358	616
Jan 22-28	236	305	618
Jan 29-31	57	93	237
JAN	1,014	1,483	2,880
Feb 1-7	211	306	706
Feb 8-14	229	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	347	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	617
FEB	955	1,285	2,531
Mar 1-7	252	412	702
Mar 8-14	205	323	610
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-27	211	279	580
Mar 28-31	108	169	261
MAR	992	1,606	2,889
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	224	362	646
Apr 15-21	241	406	805
Apr 22-28	226	347	744
Apr 29-30	61	82	179
APR	990	1,456	2,924
May 1-7	198	246	483
May 8-14	257	466	752
May 15-21	183	256	426
May 22-28	203	403	810
May 29-31	64	91	131
MAY	905	1,462	2,602
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	179	803	759
Jun 22-28	203	733	777
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	901	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	269	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	179	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	813	2,834	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	156	433	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	573
Sep 29-30	47	112	252
SEP	690	2,176	3,047
Oct 1-7	170	451	687
Oct 8-14	188	532	875
Oct 15-21	156	449	770
Oct 22-28	159	345	592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	68	570	227
OCT	741	2,347	3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	153	601	828
Nov 8-14	128	420	593
Nov 15-21	134	283	464
Nov 22-28	138	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	206	510
NOV	593	1,831	3,035
Dec 1-7	137	323	476
Dec 8-14	156	233 + 166	444 + 1,113
Dec 15-21	133	377	340
Dec 22-28	161	558	432
Dec 29-31	91	117	233
DEC	678	1,774	3,038
2014	10,209	24,725	37,970

The center of the country witnessed the most violence as usual. (See Chart 1) Salahaddin had the highest number of attacks with 2,288, almost matched by Baghdad’s 2,278. After that Anbar had 1,912, Ninewa 1,390, Diyala 919, Babil 624, Kirkuk 573, Basra 119, Karbala 28, Wasit 26, Qadisiyah 24, Maysan 13, Dhi Qar 7, Najaf 5, Muthanna 2, and Irbil 1. Salahaddin was the base for several insurgent groups such as the Baathist Naqshibandi and the Islamic State. They were carrying out a concerted effort to undermine the security forces there at the start of the year, and then became one of the main battlefronts in Iraq after the summer. Baghdad has always been a favorite target of insurgents who were attempting to stoke sectarian tensions, and undermine the government. Anbar was where open fighting started at the very end of 2013. Ninewa was very similar to Salahaddin where insurgents focused upon Mosul and the surrounding areas going after the security forces, government officials, and the tribes to prepare for the summer. Diyala, Babil and Kirkuk had longtime militant bases in places like the Hamrin Mountains, Jurf al-Sakhr and Hawija, which were used to launch operations into the surrounding areas. Basra surprisingly had the sixth most attacks. IS launched some car bombs into the province, but there was a lot of other violent activities there likely done by gangs and militias. The rest of the south saw sporadic attacks, but were largely saved from the chaos going on in the rest of Iraq.

Musings On Iraq recorded 24,725 killed and 37,970 wounded. That was by far the highest amount for any organization tracking violence in Iraq. Iraq Body Count’s year end figure was 17,073. That included civilians, police, sahwa, and militiamen, but not the army or peshmerga. The United Nations had 12,282 deaths and 23,126 injured, while the Iraqi government reported, 15,538 fatalities and more than 22,000 wounded. Musings On Iraq uses Iraqi and international press reports, and is no way comprehensive. There are plenty of incidents that do not get covered. The Iraqi and Kurdish government also stopped reporting on Iraqi Security Force (ISF) and peshmerga losses when the summer offensive stared. Towards the end of the year however, the Peshmerga Ministry did release some figures on its casualties from after June.

The number of deaths by province largely followed the number of attacks in each. (See Chart 2) Salahaddin had 5,725 fatalities, Baghdad 5,160, Anbar 4,881, Diyala 2,130, Babil 1,507, 874 in Kirkuk, 200 in Karbala, 128 in Basra, 42 in Wasit, 18 in Najaf, 15 in Maysan, 10 in Irbil and Qadisiyah each, 8 in Muthanna, and 6 in Dhi Qar.

June was the deadliest month with 4,172. Deaths remained high for the following four months with an average of 2,414 deaths each. Then the figures dropped with 1,831 in November and 1,774 in December the lowest amount of the year. 

Civilians were the main casualties in Iraq. (See Chart 4 & 5) 17,098 died during the year, with another 26,590 wounded. The army and police had 6,152 deaths and 6,757 injured, the peshmerga 895 killed and 4,034 wounded, the Asayesh, 8 dead and 13 wounded, and the sahwa 570 killed and 576 injured. Again, these figures show the lack of reporting by government agencies for losses amongst the security forces. The difference between the number of peshmerga dead and wounded was more than four fold. Conversely, the numbers for the ISF’s fatalities and injured were almost the same. Usually there are twice or more injured as killed in wars pointing to a lack of information being shared by the authorities.

The ISF was a large cause of casualties with its indiscriminate shelling and air strikes. (See Chart 6 & 7) Most of this occurred in Anbar, and especially in Fallujah, which was taken by insurgents in December 2013. In that governorate 1,688 people were killed and 4,124 wounded by government artillery, and another 67 died and 124 were injured by aircraft. That accounted for 35% of the total dead and a whopping 61% of the wounded. Artillery was also used against civilians in Salahaddin, 90 killed and 104 wounded, to a lesser extent in Kirkuk, 6 dead and 9 wounded, and Babil, 3 dead and 12 injured. Air strikes were deployed more in Salahaddin, 176 fatalities and 132 wounded, and Ninewa, 140 dead and 194 injured, and Kirkuk, 76 dead and 116 wounded, along with Babil 39 dead and 6 injured, and Diyala, 7 fatalities. The Iraqi government was roundly criticized for these tactics, because much of it was indiscriminate and killing innocents. Prime Minister Haider Abadi twice said that these practices would end, but it never did and continues to the present day.

The U.S. led coalition and the Syrian Air Force also killed a number of people in Anbar and Ninewa from October to December. (See Chart 8) In total 55 died in Anbar and another 24 in Ninewa with 108 wounded and 13 injured in those two provinces respectively. In July, the Syrian government twice bombed targets along the Anbar border with 13 fatalities and 17 injured.

Vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) have been a major tool of the Islamic State and mark its rise and fall during the year. From January to May there were 91.6 car bombs per month. This was a sign that IS was preparing for its summer offensive. Surprisingly this type of attack declined in the following months with an average of 53.1 from June to December. In fact, by the end of the year, it appeared that IS’s networks were thoroughly disrupted as there were only 21 VBIEDs in December, the fewest since 2012 with only one car bomb wave lasting three days from December 9-11. A further sign that IS had lost its capabilities was the fact that southern Iraq, which had been a favorite target to stir sectarian divisions, was not attacked at all during November and December. Instead VBIEDs were increasingly used in military operations in Anbar and Salahaddin against the ISF.

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq 2014

Month	# of Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Jan	94	353	1,000
Feb	104	310	938
Mar	96	389	931
Apr	79	337	859
May	85	298	706
Jun	58	265	877
Jul	42	259	585
Aug	58	261	733
Sep	60	346	882
Oct	74	599	1123
Nov	59	401	909
Dec	21	91	214
TOTAL	830	3,909	9,757

By the end of the year the insurgents continued to hold large swaths of central and northern Iraq. Most of Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Anbar, along with the southern section of Kirkuk, the top of Babil, and part of eastern Diyala remained under militant control. The Kurds were pushing down from northern Ninewa along the western edge having moved into Sinjar by December. They also cleared the northeast of Diyala in Jalawla and Sadiya with the help of militias. In Salahaddin the Iraqi forces, militias, and allied tribes had freed the Tuz Kharmato district in the west and was in the process of clearing the southern district of Balad. They had also moved into the northwestern Baiji district. In Babil the major IS base of Jurf al-Sakhr had been freed and the insurgents dispersed to the north. In Anbar however the ISF and tribes have consistently lost ground. By December the government forces had regained their initiative after being routed during the summer. The amount of territory to be regained however remained substantial.

SOURCES

Iraq Body Count

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraq Endures One Of Its Deadliest Years,” 1/1/15

UNAMI, “United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI),” UNAMI Facebook, 1/1/15