Iraq’s Insurgents Picking Up Attacks In New Year

Iraq’s insurgents continued to carry out a high level of activity in the third week of January 2015. Security incidents went down from August to December, but have picked up since then. On the other hand, pro-government forces were on the offensive in Diyala, Ninewa and Salahaddin for the week. In the second half of 2014 the security forces, militias and peshmerga regained the initiative and began retaking lost territory, while the insurgency cooled off as it usually does at the end of the year. Now Iraq may be witnessing both forces simultaneously launching attacks throughout the center of the country.

From January 15-21, 2015 there were a reported 181 security incidents. That was up from January 8-14 when there were 172, but on par with the first week of the month, which had 184 incidents. That averaged out to 25.5 attacks per day. In comparison, in December there were 21.8, 19.7 in November, and 23.9 in October. Baghdad saw the most violence with 44 attacks, followed by 41in Anbar, 40 in Salahaddin, 23 in Ninewa, 11 in Diyala and Kirkuk each, six in Babil, three in Basra, and two in Maysan. If this trend continues early 2015 could see the same level of attacks as during the height of the summer offensive.

This violence led to 390 people losing their lives and another 515 wounded. Those were at the same levels as the previous two weeks, and higher than December. So far there has been an average of 74.0 deaths per day in the new year. In the previous month there were 57.2. January 15-21 saw 88 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 15 Sahwa, 27 peshmerga, and 260 civilians die, along with 38 ISF, 41 Sahwa, one peshmerga, and 435 civilians wounded. Broken down by province Ninewa had the most deaths with 105, then Salahaddin with 87, Baghdad with 67, Diyala with 64, Anbar with 49, Babil with 11, five in Kirkuk, and one each in Basra and Maysan.

Violence In Iraq By Week Jun. 2014-Jan. 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	179	803	759
Jun 22-28	203	733	777
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	901	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	269	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	179	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	813	2,834	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	156	433	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	573
Sep 29-30	47	112	252
SEP	690	2,176	3,047
Oct 1-7	170	451	687
Oct 8-14	188	532	875
Oct 15-21	156	449	770
Oct 22-28	159	345	592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	68	570	227
OCT	741	2,347	3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	153	601	828
Nov 8-14	128	420	593
Nov 15-21	134	283	464
Nov 22-28	138	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	206	510
NOV	593	1,831	3,035
Dec 1-7	137	323	476
Dec 8-14	156	233 + 166	444 + 1,113
Dec 15-21	133	377	340
Dec 22-28	161	558	432
Dec 29-31	91	117	233
DEC	678	1,774	3,038
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	172	731	493
Jan 15-21	181	390	515

Violence In Iraq By Province, Jan. 2015

Province	Jan 1-7	Jan 8-14
Anbar	43 Incidents 129 Killed: 23 ISF, 30 Sahwa, 76 Civilians 146 Wounded: 45 ISF, 101 Civilians 30 Shootings 1 IED 2 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Mortars 3 Rockets	28 Incidents 58 Killed: 8 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 49 Civilians 106 Wounded: 1 Sahwa, 105 Civilians 19 Shootings 1 IED 1 Mortar 1 Rocket
Babil	6 Incidents 13 Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Civilians 44 Wounded: 4 ISF, 40 Civilians 2 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	5 Incidents 10 Killed: 5 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 4 Civilians 31 Wounded: 31 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Baghdad	40 Incidents 58 Killed: 6 ISF, 52 Civilians 147 Wounded: 1 ISF, 146 Civilians 12 Shootings 31 IEDs 5 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb	43 Incidents 60 Killed: 4 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 52 Civilians 167 Wounded: 8 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 151 Civilians 17 Shootings 19 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Mortar
Basra	3 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting 1 IED	-
Diyala	11 Incidents 13 Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Civilians 23 Wounded: 1 ISF, 22 Civilians 8 Shootings 3 Mortars	9 Incidents 25 Killed: 25 Civilians 17 Wounded: 17 Civilians 5 Shootings 3 IEDs 2 Mortars
Kirkuk	6 Incidents 1 Mortar	17 Incidents 4 Killed: 2 Peshmerga, 1 Asayesh, 1 Sahwa 15 Wounded: 11 Peshmerga, 3 Asayesh, 1 Civilian 11 Shootings 10 IEDs
Maysan	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting	-
Ninewa	30 Incidents 119 Killed: 16 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 99 Civilians 3 Wounded: 3 Peshmerga 20 Shootings 7 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs	33 Incidents 392 Killed: 2 ISF, 12 Peshmerga, 26 Asayesh,      8 YPG, 344 Civilians 7 Wounded: 5 Asayesh, 2 YPG 30 Shootings 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Qadisiyah	1 Incident 1 Sticky Bomb	-
Salahaddin	43 Incidents 97 Killed: 23 ISF, 74 Civilians 99 Wounded: 84 ISF, 15 Civilians 17 Shootings 9 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Mortar	34 Incidents 181 Killed: 44 ISF, 137 Civilians 150 Wounded: 15 ISF, 135 Civilians 12 Shootings 23 IEDs 3 Suicide Bombers 6 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 4 Mortars

Province	Jan 15-21
Anbar	41 Incidents 49 Killed: 2 ISF, 14 Sahwa, 33 Civilians 198 Wounded: 7 ISF, 38 Sahwa, 153 Civilians 25 Shootings 2 IEDs 12 Suicide Car Bombs 6 Mortars
Babil	6 Incidents 11 Killed: 1 ISF, 10 Civilians 35 Wounded: 3 ISF, 32 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Car Bomb
Baghdad	44 Incidents 67 Killed: 4 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 62 Civilians 197 Wounded: 9 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 185 Civilians 11 Shootings 24 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 1 Motorcycle Bomb 3 Mortars
Basra	3 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian
Diyala	11 Incidents 64 Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Peshmerga, 51 Civilians 16 Wounded: 16 Civilians 6 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bombs
Kirkuk	11 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 2 Shootings 1 Sticky Bomb
Maysan	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting 1 Stun Bomb
Ninewa	23 Incidents 105 Killed: 60 ISF, 16 Peshmerga, 29 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga 15 Shootings 18 IEDs
Salahaddin	40 Incidents 87 Killed: 19 ISF, 68 Civilians 68 Wounded: 19 ISF, 49 Civilians 19 Shootings 23 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Grenades 1 Mortar

Car Bombs In Iraq Jan. 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1	Habaniya, Anbar
Jan 2
Jan 3
Jan 4	Sadoun St, Baghdad Outside Samarra, Salahaddin		5
Jan 5	Anaz, Anbar	4	7
Jan 6
Jan 7	Ayathiya x2, Ninewa	4	3
Totals	6	8	15
Jan 8	Yusifiya Babil Berhewa, Ninewa Samarra x5, Salahaddin	47	45
Jan 9	Mount Sinjar x2
Jan 10
Jan 11	Baiji Refinery & West of Samarra, Salahaddin	1	3
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Totals	11	48	48
Jan 15	Baquba, Diyala Tarmiya, Salahaddin	3	21
Jan 16	Rahaliya, Anbar Hweish, Salahaddin	23	1
Jan 17
Jan 18
Jan 19	Ramadi, Anbar Mahmudiya, Babil	3	15
Jan 20	Abu Risha, Albu Ghanim, Nikhaib, Ramadi x7, Anbar	5	35
Jan 21
Totals	16	34	72

After a slight lull the number of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) went up during the week. There were 16 successful attacks across Anbar, Babil, Diyala and Salahaddin. That left 34 people dead and 72 wounded. Almost all of these car bombs were used in tactical attacks upon the security forces and militias, often in conjunction with infantry assaults. Many more VBIEDs have been used, but were destroyed before reaching their targets.

Anbar continued to be threatened by insurgents who control the majority of the province. During the week militants were active throughout the breadth of the governorate attacking Ramadi six out of seven days, Garma to the northeast of Fallujah four times, Baghdadi to the northwest of Hit three times, Amiriya Fallujah to the east by the Babil border and Haditha in the west two times each, the Walid border point, and several other towns. January 20 saw the heaviest fighting with a suicide car bomb followed by an infantry assault on Nikhaib, a suicide truck bomb in Albu Ghanim, an attack upon Abu Risha with a suicide car bomb, followed by an attack on the town that got into Sheikh Abu Risha’s compound and was able to destroy some of his buildings, and then an attack upon Ramadi’s Howaz district with seven suicide car bombs, mortar fire, and another infantry charge. Despite all the activity IS has made no real headway in Anbar since October. It is still intent upon trying to take the remaining major cities, but has failed to make much progress so far.

Government forces are still trying to clear the small towns on the outskirts of IS controlled cities in the province. Many of these places have changed hands over and over again for the last year. For example on January 15 a security operation was launched in Albu Hayat. Two days later the village was said to be freed, but then on January 21 another sweep was started there. Unfortunately this has been the pattern for the last year. Every major offensive launched by the ISF and tribes has stalled with no real progress being made.

The Iraqi army has continued with their indiscriminate shelling of Fallujah. The city was hit six out of seven days. That killed 22 people and wounded 81, which were roughly 40% of the total casualties for the governorate. This artillery and mortar fire has no real effect upon the security situation in the city, yet the ISF has been carrying it out since the city fell taking a huge civilian toll.

Casualties Government Shelling In Anbar Jan. 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Jan 2	Fallujah	20	30
Jan 3	Fallujah	3	9
Jan 5	Fallujah	4	16
Jan 6	Fallujah	4	11
Total	-	31	66
Jan 9	Fallujah	3	9
Jan 10	Fallujah	3	14
Jan 11	Fallujah	3	7
Jan 12	Fallujah	11	20
Jan 13	Fallujah	13	18
Jan 14	Fallujah	13	17
Total	-	46	85
Jan 15	Fallujah	4	7
Jan 16	Fallujah	3	6
Jan 17	Fallujah	4	17
Jan 18	Fallujah	2	25
Jan 19	Fallujah	6	19
Jan 20	Fallujah	3	7
Total	Fallujah	22	81

In previous weeks the Islamic State was threatening Muqtadiya in central Diyala. This caused a major displacement from the area. From January 15-21 there were only two attacks there however. On January 21, the ISF finally launched a much expected operation there. IS still has many bases in Diyala’s east, and is now attempting to move into the center of the province for the first time in several months. It’s yet to be seen whether it will have any success or whether the government forces will be able to push them back.

In January both the IS and peshmerga have been carrying out operations in Ninewa. The insurgents attacked Sinjar four times, Mosul Dam, Bartella, Bashiqa, and the Tal Afar area from January 15-21. The Islamic State has also continued with its executions and intimidation tactics in the territory it controls. On January 15 four members of the Jabour tribe were killed in Qayara, and six houses belonging to judges were blown up in Tal Afar. The next day five women were executed in Mosul, and then thirteen young men were hung for watching a soccer game in the city. Then on January 17 eleven homes of police were detonated in Qayara, and 60 members of the ISF were shot in the Mosul area on January 20. The peshmerga have been slowly been taking back territory in Ninewa. On January 21 they freed several villages in the west and are threatening to cut IS’s supply lines to Syria. After the shock of losing Sinjar the Kurds have gone on the offensive and taken back several small and large towns in the province. IS appears to be ramping up its own operations now in an attempt to gain some of this territory back.

A similar situation is playing out in Salahaddin. Despite recent gains by pro-government forces IS is still able to attack throughout most of the governorate. On January 15 it attacked a checkpoint in Tarmiya in the south by Baghdad with a suicide car bomb. January 16 it hit a militia base in Hweish with another VBIED and the Baiji refinery. January 18 it attacked Yathrib in the southern Balad district, and Dujail in the north on January 21. The ISF and militias are still trying to consolidate their recent gains in Balad. On January 15 for instance, it cleared Nibai for the second time. They also launched new security operations during the week in Sayid Gharaib, Albu Nisan and Sur Nash. The situation in Salahaddin is much like Ninewa. IS still controls large swaths of the province, but has been losing areas and is now trying to gain back some of the momentum.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "The killing five members of Daash in armed clashes south of Tikrit," 1/21/15

- "The outcome of the bombing in central Baquba a boy killed and 13 wounded," 1/15/15

Al Forat, "Anbar: ISF& volunteers completely liberate Albu Hayat from ISIL," 1/17/15

Al Forat, "ISIL terrorists execute 4 men of Jabour tribe in Nineveh," 1/15/15

- "Tikrit: ISF, volunteers entirely liberate Nibai area from ISIL," 1/15/15

Kurd Press, "IS shoots 60 Iraqi forces in Nainawa: PUK official tells Kurdpress," 1/20/15

Al Mada, "16 people injured in car bombing central Baquba," 1/15/15

- "Daash blows up six houses belonging to judges in Tal Afar," 1/15/15

- "Killing and wounding at least 13 people in a car bomb south of Baghdad," 1/19/15

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "Anbar police repels ISIS' deadliest attack in Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/21/15

Mamuzini, Hazhar, "IS Hangs 13 Youths in Mosul For Watching Soccer Game," Bas News, 10/18/15

- “Peshmerga Forces Take Control of Mosul – Tel Afar Road,” Bas News, 1/22/15

Al Masalah, "A suicide car bomb blast in Tarmiya," 1/15/15

NINA, "/3/ people killed and /6/ others wounded in the east and south of Fallujah," 1/16/15

- "4 Security Elements Killed, 7 Others Injured In Clashes With Daash In Balad," 1/18/15

- "The IS elements blew up /11/ homes belonging to officers and volunteers in Nineveh police raining centers," 1/17/15

- "The IS executed five women in Mosul," 1/16/15

- "Two of awakening killed, 13 others wounded, including a police, in a suicide attack north-east of Ramadi," 1/20/15

Radio Free Iraq, "15 January 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 1/15/15

- "17 January 2015," Daily Updates from Iraq, 1/17/15

- "18 January 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 1/18/15

- "19 January 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 1/19/15

- "20 January 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 1/20/15

Al Rayy, "Martyrdom and wounding 21 police officers and tribal fighters in suicide bombing east of Ramadi," 1/20/15

- "Martyrdom and wounding a number of elements of the popular brigades coming from Karbala by a suicide attack in the area of Rahaliya," 1/16/15

- "Protection Force at Baiji refinery repel an attack by Daash and kill a number of them and burn two of their vehicles," 1/16/15

Sarhan, Amre, "Joint forces kill 16 ISIS elements southern Tikrit," Iraqi News, 1/15/15

Shafaq News, "Diyala police chief: Our forces besiege the terrorists north of Muqdadiyah," 1/21/15

- "ISIS controls Abu Risha's host place and a suicide bombing in Nikhaib," 1/20/15