Baghdad remains the most violence province in Iraq. During the
summer while the insurgents launched their offensive most attacks shifted to
Anbar, Ninewa, and Salahaddin. Since then Baghdad has returned as the main
target for the militant. By attacking the capital insurgents are hoping to
undermine the government and stoke sectarian tensions just like they did in the
2000s. The threat faced by Baghdad has changed however from 2014 to the new
year. Before the capital was repeatedly hit by waves of car bombs (vehicle
borne improvised explosive devices). Now there are hardly any VBIEDs, but the
number of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) has skyrocketed. Fortunately for
the populace these are not able to cause as many casualties leading to the
number of dead and wounded to go down in the province as attacks are going up.
Baghdad has returned as the province with the most attacks
in Iraq. During the first half of 2014 insurgents were concentrating on Anbar,
Ninewa and Salahaddin as they prepared and then launched their summer
offensive. In January and March 2014 Anbar led the country in attacks with 241
and 213, then militants shifted their focus to Salahaddin, which had the most
security incidents in February, 216, April, 219, May, 201, and June, 196. Since
then Baghdad has had the most attacks six out of seven months since July. For
much of that period the capital had far more incidents that the other
governorates. In January 2015 for instance, Baghdad had roughly 40 more attacks
than either Anbar or Salahaddin. Not only that, but attacks have been going up
in the capital. They went from 152 in October 2014 to 177 in November, 201 in
December, and 205 in January 2015. That was the most since July’s 220, and the fourth
highest in the last 13 months.
Most Violent Provinces In Iraq 2014-2015
Month
|
Anbar
|
Baghdad
|
Ninewa
|
Salahaddin
|
Jan
2014
|
241
|
222
|
169
|
209
|
Feb
|
173
|
185
|
184
|
216
|
Mar
|
213
|
207
|
180
|
204
|
Apr
|
181
|
180
|
186
|
219
|
May
|
139
|
192
|
183
|
201
|
Jun
|
157
|
181
|
101
|
196
|
Jul
|
147
|
220
|
82
|
185
|
Aug
|
143
|
172
|
76
|
171
|
Sep
|
105
|
189
|
52
|
177
|
Oct
|
174
|
152
|
65
|
205
|
Nov
|
110
|
177
|
54
|
140
|
Dec
|
129
|
201
|
58
|
165
|
Jan
2015
|
161
|
205
|
124
|
164
|
Violence In Baghdad 2014-2015
Month
|
Dead
|
Wounded
|
Shootings
|
Mortar/
Rocket/
Grenades
|
IEDs
|
Car Bombs
|
Suicide
Bombers
(Non-Car
Bombs)
|
Sticky
Bombs
|
TOTAL
BOMBS
|
Jan 2014
|
504
|
1,103
|
75
|
6/1/-
|
67
|
48
|
6
|
22
|
143
|
Feb
|
352
|
828
|
72
|
1/2/1
|
49 + 2 Motorcycle Bombs + 1 Sound bomb
|
39
|
1
|
23
|
115
|
Mar
|
340
|
874
|
55
|
3/-/-
|
86
|
31
|
1
|
31
|
149
|
Apr
|
387
|
870
|
52
|
10/-/2
|
63
|
23
|
12
|
23
|
121
|
May
|
390
|
811
|
68
|
12/3/-
|
59
|
27
|
4
|
21
|
111
|
Jun
|
357
|
840
|
64
|
6/-/-
|
78
|
15
|
2
|
18
|
113
|
Jul
|
453
|
817
|
107
|
15/-/-
|
55
|
17
|
3
|
23
|
98
|
Aug
|
419
|
958
|
60
|
9/1/-
|
65 + 3 Sound bombs
|
21
|
1
|
17
|
107
|
Sep
|
441
|
1,179
|
51
|
10/-/-
|
85 + 1 Motorcycle bomb + 1 Sound bomb
|
21
|
-
|
19
|
127
|
Oct
|
590
|
1,399
|
48
|
3/-/-
|
73
|
23
|
4
|
11
|
111
|
Nov
|
488
|
1,263
|
40
|
3/-/-
|
91
|
26
|
-
|
13
|
130
|
Dec
|
439
|
849
|
58
|
5/4/1
|
97
|
3
|
1
|
24
|
125
|
Jan
2105
|
357
|
980
|
63
|
10/-/1
|
118 + 1 Motorcycle bomb
|
2
|
4
|
17
|
142
|
The types of operations the insurgents are launching in
Baghdad have changed during the last year. Historically there were always
shootings and IEDs in Baghdad, but the preferred method of sowing chaos was car
bombs. The capital would regularly be the main target of these devices. In
2012, Baghdad had the most VBIEDs 9 out of 12 months, 10 out of 12 months in
2013, and 11 out of 12 months in 2014. In 2012 the Islamic State was rebuilding
its networks and averaged 8 car bombs per month in Baghdad. That quickly rose
to 24.4 in 2013, and 22.4 in 2014. Starting in December 2014 however, IS’s
VBIED networks began to be disrupted and the group also began using car bombs
more for tactical attacks in other provinces than the regular terrorist bombings
of civilians. At the end of last year, IS lost Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil and Nibai
in Salahaddin, which were both VBIED bases. That led to a decided drop in these
types of operations in Baghdad with 23 in October, 26 in November, and then 3
in December and 2 in January. IS could change its strategy and refocus its car
bombs upon civilians and these numbers could go back up, but it would be harder
pressed to find new bases near the capital to build and launch its bomb laden
vehicles from. That means for now it appears Baghdad will be spared the huge
numbers of car bombs that it was used to.
What the insurgency has been doing to compensate for that
decline is shifting towards more and more IEDs. Since the summer the number of
improvised explosive devices has gone from 55 in July, 65 in August, 85 in
September, 73 in October, 91 in November, 97 in December, and 118 in January. Many
of these have been aimed at shops, restaurants, cafes, and markets to try to
kill as many people as possible. In January 2015 for example, 44 out of 118
IEDs, 37% were directed at businesses resulting in 89 deaths and 366 wounded. In
total IEDs took the lives of 175 people, 17% of all deaths for the month, and
injured another 739, 75% of all wounded.
The decrease in VBIEDs partly attests for the recent trend
in casualties. From October 2014 to January 2015 the number of dead and wounded
has actually gone down. There were 590 killed and 1,399 wounded in October, 488
and 1,263 in November, 439 and 849 in December, and 357 deaths and 980 injured
in January. That decline was probably due to having less car bombs go off in
the capital, which are capable of mass casualties.
In the last seven month Iraq’s insurgents have refocused
upon the country’s capital. That has meant more and more attacks, especially
since November. Due to on going security operations however, the militants
don’t have the same capabilities that they used to. The loss of bases in the
north and south has crippled the Islamic State’s VBIED networks that were used
to hit the capital. It will be hard pressed to find new areas to build and
launch car bombs from due to these sweeps. IS is also sending most of its car
bombs at the security forces in places like Anbar and Salahaddin these days
sparing Baghdad. That doesn’t mean there aren’t more bombs going off, but these
are mostly less deadly IEDs. That’s led to a disconnect between attacks, which
are going up, and casualties, which are going down. Unfortunately, as the
numbers show security within the capital is as bad as ever with no real change
in the last 13 months. The government desperately needs to revise its security plans
within Baghdad because the small sweeps in the outskirts and all the
checkpoints within the city do little to stop the constant attacks.
SOURCES
AIN,
"2 bombs explode in eastern Baghdad," 1/17/15
Alsumaria,
"Four civilians injured by a roadside bomb south of Baghdad," 1/29/15
-
"Killing one civilian and wounding four by a roadside bomb west of
Baghdad," 1/2/15
-
"Killing one civilian and wounding six others by a roadside bomb north of
Baghdad," 1/27/15
-
"Nine dead and wounded in detonation of two bombs in central
Baghdad," 1/4/15
-
"Seven civilians were injured by a roadside bomb north of Baghdad,"
1/2/15
-
"Source: 44 dead and 70 injured toll of bombings in central eastern
Baghdad," 1/30/15
-
"Three dead and nine wounded toll in Meshada bombing north of
Baghdad," 1/18/15
Associated
Press, "2 bombings kill 8 people in Iraq," 1/10/15
-
"Officials say bombings in and around Iraq's capital, Baghdad, kill 9
people," 1/31/15
Buratha
News, "Martyrdom and wounding seven people in the bombing north-west of
Baghdad in Topchi area," 1/2/15
Al
Forat, "3 policemen injured in southern Baghdad," 1/17/15
-
"8 Civilians wounded in Habibiya," 1/23/15
Hassan,
Alaa, "Wounding three members of the Awakening by a roadside bomb south of
Baghdad," Alsumaria, 1/21/15
Independent
Press Agency, "21 dead and wounded toll of bombings east of Baghdad,"
1/23/15
-
"Injuring four people in bombing of the north-west of Baghdad,"
1/27/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people blown up near a popular market in
eastern Baghdad," 1/13/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people by a roadside bomb north of
Baghdad," 1/3/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people by a roadside bomb southwest of
Baghdad," 1/4/15
-
"Killing and injuring six people near the industrial district south of
Baghdad," 1/3/15
-
"Killing and wounding 10 people by a roadside bomb in central Baghdad's
Karrada," 1/4/15
-
"Killing and wounding a number of members of the Awakening in blast south
of Baghdad," 1/10/15
-
"Killing and wounding four civilians in explosion west of Baghdad,"
1/10/15
-
"Killing and wounding nine people in central Baghdad blast," 1/10/15
-
"Killing two people and wounding seven others by a bomb in eastern
Baghdad," 1/7/15
-
"Seven people killed and injured by a roadside bomb near the
"Garage" in eastern Baghdad," 1/1/15
Iraq
Times, "17 martyrs and injured in the blasts in eastern Baghdad,"
1/7/15
-
"Café in eastern Baghdad targeted with 13 martyrs and wounded,"
1/23/15
-
"The death and wounding of 23 civilians in three explosive blasts in
eastern Baghdad," 1/30/15
-
"Four explosions in Baghdad predicted 41 martyrs and wounded,"
1/23/15
- "Martyrdom
and wounding 10 members of the police and army reserve by terrorist operations
in Baghdad," 1/6/15
-
"Martyrdom and wounding 14 people in three explosions in Baghdad,"
1/25/15
-
"Martyrdom and wounding 20 people in three explosions in central Baghdad,"
1/3/15
-
"Martyrdom and wounding 33 people amid pandemonium by a roadside bomb in
Baghdad market," 1/25/15
-
"Martyrs and wounded of the army reserve in explosion south of
Baghdad," 1/6/15
Al
Mada, "Four terrorists killed including a leader in clash west of
Baghdad," 1/24/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people blown up near a popular restaurant west
of Baghdad," 1/22/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people blown up near a yard sale for sheep
north of Baghdad," 1/6/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people by a roadside bomb north of
Baghdad," 1/26/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people by a roadside bomb west of
Baghdad," 1/17/15
-
"Killing and injuring eight people south of Baghdad detonated near
Mall," 1/6/15
-
"Killing and injuring nine people bombing north of Baghdad," 1/21/15
-
"Killing and injuring nine people by a roadside bomb in central
Baghdad," 1/24/15
-
"Killing and injuring nine people south of Baghdad," 1/14/15
-
"Killing and injuring seven people by a roadside bomb south of
Baghdad," 1/27/15
-
"Killing and injuring six people in west of Baghdad bombing," 1/9/15
-
"Killing and injuring six people west of Baghdad bombing," 1/26/15
-
"Killing and injuring ten people blown up near a popular market in eastern
Baghdad," 1/27/15
-
"Killing and injuring ten people in bombing north of Baghdad," 1/5/15
-
"Killing and injuring ten people by a roadside bomb south of
Baghdad," 1/26/15
-
"Killing and wounding 11 people in a bombing north of Baghdad,"
1/21/15
-
"Killing and wounding 11 people in bombing south of Baghdad," 1/25/15
-
"Killing and wounding 11 people south of Baghdad in detonation near
shops," 1/22/15
-
"Killing and wounding 12 people by a roadside bomb in eastern
Baghdad," 1/31/15
-
"Killing and wounding eight people bombing south of Baghdad," 1/18/15
-
"Killing and wounding four people including officer and his son blown up
southeast of Baghdad," 1/20/15
-
"Killing and wounding four soldiers blown up south of Baghdad,"
1/31/15
-
"Killing and wounding nine people in central Baghdad bombing," 1/9/15
-
"Killing and wounding nine people in eastern Baghdad bombing," 1/4/15
-
"Killing and wounding seven people blown up near a west Baghdad
park," 1/7/15
-
"Killing and wounding seven people blown up north of Baghdad," 1/1/15
-
"Killing and wounding seven people in central Baghdad bombing,"
1/2/15
-
"Killing and wounding seven people in eastern Baghdad bombing,"
1/5/15
-
"Killing and wounding seven policemen in double bombing south-east of
Baghdad," 1/18/15
-
"Killing and injuring six people blown up near a mosque south of
Baghdad," 1/12/15
-
"Killing and injuring six people south of Baghdad in bombing,"
1/19/15
-
"Killing and wounding six soldiers blown up targeting their patrol west of
Baghdad," 1/8/15
-
"Killing and injuring ten people blown up north-east of Baghdad,"
1/12/15
-
"Killing and injuring ten people blown up south west of Baghdad,"
1/15/15
-
"Killing and wounding 11 people in bombing north of Baghdad," 1/9/15
-
"Killing and wounding seven people in bombing of sweets booth eastern
Baghdad," 1/14/15
-
"Killing and wounding six policemen in bombing targeting a patrol south of
Baghdad," 1/24/15
-
"Seven people killed and injured by a roadside bomb in eastern
Baghdad," 1/13/15
-
"Wounding eight people west of Baghdad detonated near shops," 1/19/15
-
"Wounding nine people blown up in central Baghdad," 1/14/15
-
"Wounding nine people in bombing south of Baghdad," 1/8/15
-
"Wounding three policemen blown up south-east of Baghdad," 1/25/15
Al
Masalah, "3 injured members of security patrol by roadside bomb in
Baghdad," 1/6/15
-
"The death of a member of the popular brigades in a roadside bomb in
Baghdad," 1/28/15
-
"The death of one civilian and wounding seven by two explosions in
Baghdad," 1/26/15
-
"Martyrdom and wounding of civilians by improvised explosive device in
Baghdad," 1/31/15
New
Sabah, "Security file," 1/18/15
NINA,
"Breaking News../16/ people wounded in the bombing of a series of
explosive devices in different parts of Baghdad in the," 1/22/15
-
"Wounded two civilians by a roadside bomb north of Baghdad," 1/12/15
Al
Rayy, "1 died and seven wounded by a roadside bomb south of Baghdad,"
1/21/15
-
"The death of one civilian and wounding six others by two bombs north of
Baghdad," 1/16/15
-
"Martyrdom an element of the popular brigades and injuring two others by a
roadside bomb north of Baghdad," 1/20/15
-
"Martyrdom and wounding 12 people by a roadside bomb in the holy door in
central Baghdad," 1/24/15
-
"Martyrdom and wounding of 10 people by a roadside bomb in New
Baghdad," 1/24/15
-
"Three civilians were wounded by a roadside bomb south of Baghdad,"
1/9/15
-
"Three people were injured by a roadside bomb in eastern Baghdad,"
1/3/14
-
"Two people killed and six wounded by a roadside bomb south of
Baghdad," 1/3/15
Salaheddin,
Sinan, "Officials say bombings kill 10 in Iraq's capital, Baghdad,"
Associated Press, 1/25/15
World
Bulletin, "At least 55 killed in Iraq violence," 1/12/15
Xinhua,
"65 killed in clashes, bomb attacks in Iraq," 1/25/15
Yacoub,
Sameer, "Attacks kill 8 people in Iraq," Associated Press, 1/20/15
-
"Attacks kill 9 people in Iraq," Associated Press, 1/16/15
-
"Iraqi officials: Attacks in and around Baghdad kill 8," Associated
Press, 1/26/15
-
"Officials say 2 bombings kill 7 people in Iraq's capital,"
Associated Press, 1/24/15
-
"Officials say market bombings kill 18 around Iraq's capital,"
Associated Press, 1/17/15
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