Aftermath Of The Fall Of Ramadi In Iraq

The third week of May 2015 was marked by the fall of Ramadi in Iraq’s Anbar province. The fighting for the city caused huge casualties amongst the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), tribes and civilians, especially as the Islamic State (IS) carried out executions during the entire operation. The battle for Ramadi showed the limits of reporting in Iraq as most of the papers were caught up in Anbar and dramatically reduced their coverage of the rest of the country.

There were 123 security incidents in the media from May 15-21. That was the lowest since the 121 reported the first week of April. That wasn’t because violence suddenly decreased, but rather was the result of the press being fixated upon the fight for Ramadi. The Iraqi papers barely covered the rest of the country during that period. Much more was going on in the rest of Iraq, it just wasn’t mentioned.

While attacks were way down the number of casualties was quite high due to Ramadi. 961 people died and 380 were wounded during the week. Most of those were in the Anbar provincial capital where IS executed over 500 ISF, sahwa and civilians during and after its capture. In total 848 were killed in Anbar, followed by 51 in Baghdad, 19 in Salahaddin, 16 in Kirkuk, 12 in Ninewa, 7 in Basra, 5 in Diyala, and 3 in Babil. The dead consisted of 1 Hashd al-Shaabi, 43 sahwa, 334 ISF, and 583 civilians, while the injured were made up of 3 sahwa, 11 Hashd, 162 ISF, and 204 civilians. Like attacks the real numbers were surely higher.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	142	1,299	503
Mar 22-28	170	235	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	689	2,459 + 4	2,371 + 150
Apr 1-7	121	212	422
Apr 8-14	133	626	525
Apr 15-21	169	722	714
Apr 22-28	160	483	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	633	2,212	2,625
May 1-7	154	626	450
May 8-14	154	419	549
May 15-21	123	961	380

Violence In Iraq By Province May 2015

Province	May 1-7	May 8-14
Anbar	34 Incidents 75 Killed: 21 ISF, 30 Hashd, 24 Civilians 103 Wounded: 54 ISF, 49 Civilians 15 Shootings 19 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Mortars 2 Rockets	36 Incidents 74 Killed: 16 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 9 Hashd, 47 Civilians 176 Wounded: 62 ISF, 7 Hashd, 26 Sahwa, 81 Civilians 26 Shootings 14 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Mortars
Babil	-	8 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 20 Wounded: 5 Hashd, 15 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb
Baghdad	68 Incidents 105 Killed: 3 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 101 Civilians 234 Wounded: 7 ISF, 5 Sahwa, 222 Civilians 28 Shootings 28 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Car Bombs 1 Rockets	46 Incidents 99 Killed: 2 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 94 Civilians 218 Wounded: 9 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 207 Civilians 15 Shootings 22 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb 3 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Basra	1 Incident 1 Shooting	-
Diyala	9 Incidents 23 Killed: 3 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 19 Civilians 23 Wounded: 8 ISF, 3 Asayesh, 12 Civilians 4 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	18 Incidents 89 Killed: 10 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 78 Civilians 66 Wounded: 7 ISF, 59 Civilians 7 Shootings 5 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 2 Suicide Car Bombs
Kirkuk	9 Incidents 10 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 1 Hashd, 8 Civilians 17 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga, 13 Civilians 4 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Mortar	7 Incidents 13 Killed: 4 Peshmerga, 9 Civilians 6 Wounded: 5 Peshmerga, 1 Civilian 4 Shootings 1 IED
Ninewa	11 Incidents 342 Killed: 324 Civilians 5 Shootings 25 IEDs	17 Incidents 26 Killed: 2 ISF, 24 Civilians 2 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga 8 Shootings 20 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin	22 Incidents 89 Killed: 79 ISF, 8 Hashd, 2 Civilians 73 Wounded: 54 ISF, 10 Hashd, 9 Civilians	22 Incidents 113 Killed: 61 ISF, 52 Civilians 61 Wounded: 32 ISF, 8 Hashd, 21 Civilians 13 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb 1 Mortar

Province	May 15-21
Anbar	46 Incidents 848 Killed: 321 ISF, 40 Sahwa, 488 Civilians 186 Wounded: 129 ISF, 57 Civilians 30 Shootings 8 IEDs 19 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 5 Mortars 2 Rockets
Babil	2 Incidents 3 Killed: 3 Civilians 11 Wounded: 11 Civilians 2 IEDs
Baghdad	44 Incidents 51 Killed: 4 ISF, 1 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 43 Civilians 108 Wounded: 20 ISF, 3 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 82 Civilians 17 Shootings 18 IEDs 7 Sticky Bobs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb 1 Mortar
Basra	2 Incidents 7 Killed: 7 Civilians 4 Wounded: 4 Civilians 2 Shootings
Diyala	5 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 6 Wounded: 6 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs
Kirkuk	4 Incidents 16 Killed: 16 Civilians 1 Sticky Bomb
Ninewa	8 Incidents 12 Killed: 12 Civilians 3 Shootings
Salahaddin	12 Incidents 19 Killed: 10 ISF, 9 Civilians 65 Wounded: 13 ISF, 8 Hashd, 44 Civilians 3 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Mortar 1 Rockets

Car Bombs In Iraq May 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
May 1
May 2	Garma, Anbar Karrada x2, Baghdad	29	66
May 3
May 4	Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	3	5
May 5	Garma, Anbar Karrada, Baghdad	6	13
May 6
May 7	Baiji x2, Dour, Hamrin x2, Salahaddin	57	39
Totals	11	95	123
May 8	Baladrooz & Kanaan, Diyala	22	59
May 9	Karrada, Baghdad	8	30
May 10	Fallujah x3, Anbar Shaab, Baghdad Taji & Tarmiya, Salahaddin	23	26
May 11
May 12	Sadoun St & Tahrir Sq, Baghdad	14	37
May 13
May 14	Dulab x9 & Jubba x2, Anbar	6	54
Totals	22	73	206
May 15	Ramadi x11, Anbar	10	7
May 16	Fallujah & Ramadi, Anbar Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	8
May 17	Ramadi x7, Anbar Shurta, Baghdad	17	35
May 18
May 19	Haswar, Anbar Abu Ghraib, Baghdad	8	14
May 20
May 21
Totals	24	43	56

IS upped the number of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) for the third week in a row. In the first week of May there were 11 VBIEDs, followed by 22 the second, and 24 the third week. 21 were in Anbar alone showing the heavy fighting there. Many more were destroyed before reaching their intended targets. 43 people were reported killed in these attacks and another 56 wounded. Again, the actual figures are far higher as many casualties were not reported for the car bombings in Anbar.

Anbar was obviously the major focus in Iraq during the third week of May. IS successfully took Ramadi after 17 months of trying. Head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey told the press that the ISF commander in the city ordered a withdrawal out of fear that the bad weather in the area would prevent coalition air support from being called him. The use of ten Oklahoma City size truck bombs also helped break down the defenses throughout Ramadi. From the very start, IS also executed over 500 civilians, sahwa and ISF members. It was reported that IS had hit lists of people they wanted to kill, and were going door to door looking for them. The militants weren’t done either as they continued to push east into Husaiba and Khalidiya.

Back in Baghdad the fall of Ramadi has led to a series of recriminations. Sheikhs in Anbar have accused the ISF of abandoning them during the fighting. A State of Law parliamentarian said that Ramadi showed that the Iraqi government should only rely upon the Iranians rather than the U.S who was accused of helping IS. Dawa members also went after ISF officers in Anbar claiming that they had fled without consulting with the prime minister, were lying about the strength of their units, and some had contacts with the Islamic State. Finally, a spokesman for Asaib Ahl Al-Haq said that the fall of Ramadi was due to Prime Minister Abadi listening to the Americans to keep the Hashd out of the fight. Abadi and the Americans had gained strength from the victory in Tikrit over Iran and its friends within the Hashd after their attack stalled, but now were put back on the defensive due to the events in Anbar. This back and forth political battle will continue into the future.

Baghdad continued to be a major target, but casualties dropped there compared to the previous week. From May 15-21 there were 44 incidents just around the 46 from the week before, and way down from the 68 seen during the first week. There were 51 fatalities and 108 injured during the third week, down from the 99 deaths and 218 from the previous one. There were two car bombs during the week, one at an army base in Abu Ghraib, and another on a market in Shurta. There were also 19 IEDs and 7 sticky bombs, which led to the majority of the dead and wounded. The number of extra judicial killings in the province continued at a high pace. There were twelve bodies discovered across Baghdad, which was just around the fifteen found the week before. So Far there have been 51 bodies dumped in parts of the governorate this month compared to 38 during April. The return of mass casualty car bombs and displaced Anbaris who have been blamed for these terrorist acts has apparently prompted Hashd and other Shiite elements to pick up the pace of these murders, although some are also the work of insurgents.

Violence in southern Iraq is dreadfully under reported, but during the week Asaib Ahl Al-Haq got caught up in a tribal conflict in Basra leading to a shoot out that killed six and wounded four on May 18. The removal of much of the security forces from the southern provinces to fight the insurgency has given rise to an increasing number of lawless acts such as gang activity, tribal conflicts, and deadly political rivalries throughout the region. The media is catching only a small portion of this. 

In Salahaddin the effort to relieve the Baiji refinery continued. Throughout the week government forces made steady progress towards the area, finally reaching the complex by the last day of the week. The fighting for Baiji highlights the manpower shortages Baghdad is facing as the region was cleared in October-November, January, February, and April. Whenever the area is attacked, reinforcements are sent in, but they then withdraw allowing IS to move back in. This has occurred throughout the country again and again. Unless there are strong local actors such as in Amerli and Alam in Salahaddin or the place was totally emptied such as Jalawla in Diyala, Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil and Tikrit the government has not been able to hold many areas after clearing operations. They simply lack the manpower to do so. That means Baiji will likely come under threat once again in the coming weeks.

SOURCES

AIN, "Car bomb explodes on Al-Tameem bridge, western Ramadi," 5/16/15

Associated Press, "Amid battles with ISIS, suicide attacks kill 10 people in Iraq," 5/15/15

- "Iraqi premier: Don't abandon Anbar to Islamic State group," 5/17/15

- "Iraqi troops repel ISIS attack on Anbar town," 5/19/15

- "Suicide car bombs kill 10 Iraqi troops in besieged Ramadi," 5/17/15

BBC, "Islamic State crisis: Militants seize Ramadi stronghold," 5/15/15

Daragahi, Borzou and Solomon, Erika, “Ramadi’s fall casts doubt on al-Abadi’s control of Iraq war,” Financial Times, 5/19/15

Al Forat, "2 citizens killed, 8 others wounded by car bomb southeast Baghdad," 5/17/15

Al Jazeera, "State patrolling perimeter of Abu Ghraib and the government mobilized to retake Ramadi," 5/19/15

Al Mada, “Albu Fahd committed to the Battle of Ramadi: we were betrayed by the army,” 5/22/15

- “Dawa Party fall of Ramadi: the disappearance of 15,000 troops and Daash captured enough weapons to fight for a whole year,” 5/20/15

Al Masalah, "Tribal conflict in Basra," 5/18/15

NINA, "8/ members of the Federal Police killed near the Baiji refinery," 5/16/15

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Shi’ite Fighters Mass For Counterattack On IS-Held Ramadi,” 5/19/15

Radio Free Iraq, "18 May 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 5/18/15

Al Rafiydan, "Hezbollah Brigades regain control of army headquarters in Fallujah," 5/16/15

Shafaq News, “Maliki’s coalition calls government to rely on Iranian advisers rather than Americans,” 5/19/15

Stars and Stripes, “Dempsey Says Iraqis Weren’t Driven Out of Ramadi, They Drove,” 5/22/15

Xinhua, "IS militants capture government compound in Iraq's Ramadi," 5/15/15

Yacoub Sameer, "Islamic State militants seize government compound in the capital of western Anbar province," 5/15/15

Youssef, Nancy, “Iraqis Now Blaming U.S. for Losing Ramadi to ISIS,” Daily Beast, 5/21/15