Iraq exported another record high in oil in April 2015. The
country surpassed the 3 million barrels a day mark for the first time in over
twenty years. This was due to an increase in exports by the Kurds. Ironically,
Baghdad’s announcement led to a decline in international oil prices showing the
precarious situation the country is in needing to earn as much money as
possible with the decline in prices, but its production driving them down even
more.
Iraq’s April numbers had not been seen since the 1990s. The
country exported an average
of 3.08 million barrels a day, up from 2.98 million in March. The latter was
the previous post-2003 high. The new figures for April were the most since 1990
when Iraq exported 3.5
million barrels per day. Despite the new high it was still below the 3.3
million called for in the 2015
budget.
The record numbers were due to a large increase in Kurdish
exports. In April, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) exported an average
of 450,000 barrels a day for Baghdad. That was the highest amount for the
region since the start of the year, which began at 153,000
barrels to 306,000 in February down to 268,000 in March before dramatically
increasing last month. This was good news for the KRG because it is cash
strapped. In 2014 former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki cut off budget payments
to the region due to its independent oil policy and the KRG has not been able
to pay many of its bills since then. Under the new budget agreement its
payments are largely based upon how much it exports each month.
Kurdistan is still not meeting its budget obligations. Under
the deal the Kurds were to export an average of 550,000
barrels a day. Later that was renegotiated,
and the KRG said it would deliver 375,000 barrels a day the first quarter of
2015, add then 600,000 barrels over the rest of the year to reach an annual
average of 550,000. Instead, during the first three months of the year the
Kurds reached 242,333 barrels. The reason why it has not met its mark is that
the region has continued independent exports to earn money to pay off its
debts. Kurdistan will have to boost its output to much higher levels if it is
to meet its mark. Then again, there may be enough leeway in the agreement that
if it comes close it will not be an issue.
The southern ports continued with their up and down output.
In April they exported an average of 2.62 million barrels a day. That was down
from 2.71 million in March, but higher than February’s 2.29 million and
January’s 2.39 million. The dip was due to two of three of the single point
moorings being taken
off line to prepare for the new Basra Heavy crude the Oil Ministry wants to
market.
Oil prices have been creeping up since the start of the
year, but Iraq’s new high had a negative affect at least for a day. In April
Iraqi crude sold for $51.70 per barrel, up from $48.24 in March, $47.43 in
February, and $41.45 in January. That earned the country $4.8 billion in April.
Still, when news came out about Iraq’s new record high June Brent crude dipped
32 cents. Like everything else the nation has not met its price mark either set
in the 2015 budget, which called for $55 per barrel. Its oil may meet that
amount, but by the time it does it will not be able to earn the amounts that
were predicted. That will pose further problems for the government, as it may
not be able to finance its deficit.
Iraq
Oil Exports & Revenues 2014-15
|
Month
|
Avg.
Exports
|
Avg.
Price
Per
Barrel
|
Earnings
|
|
Jan. 14
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$7.074
|
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$8.001
|
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.507
|
|
Apr
|
2.509
|
$100.69
|
$7.582
|
|
May
|
2.582
|
$100.69
|
$8.077
|
|
Jun
|
2.423
|
$102.96
|
$7.470
|
|
Jul
|
2.442
|
$102.27
|
$7.742
|
|
Aug
|
2.375
|
$97.44
|
$7.172
|
|
Sep
|
2.542
|
$90.76
|
$6.916
|
|
Oct
|
2.432
|
$81.12
|
$6.120
|
|
Nov
|
2.51
|
$70.40
|
$5.25
|
|
Dec
|
2.941
|
$56.59
|
$5.161
|
|
2014
Avg.
|
2.51
|
$92.39
|
$7.013
|
|
Jan
|
2.535
|
$41.45
|
$3.258
|
|
Feb
|
2.597
|
$47.43
|
$3.449
|
|
Mar
|
2.98
|
$48.24
|
$4.46
|
|
Apr
|
3.08
|
$51.70
|
$4.8
|
2015 Oil Exports From
Basra
Jan 2.39 mil/bar/day
Feb 2.29 mil/bar/day
Mar 2.71 mil/bar/day
Apr 2.62 mil/bar/day
2015 Oil Exports By
Kurds
Jan 153,000 bar/day
Feb 306,000 bar/day
Mar 268,000 bar/day
Apr 450,000 bar/day
SOURCES
Al Bawaba, “Iraq’s oil prices drop after hike in crude
output,” 5/4/15
Lando, Ben, “Iraq exports continue upward trend,” Iraq Oil
Report, 5/6/15
Osgood, Patrick and Tahir, Rawaz,
“Budget payment buoys Baghdad-KRG oil deal,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/26/15
Osgood, Patrick, Van Heuvelen,
Ben, “Analysis: 5 key takeaways from Iraq’s 2015 draft budget,” Iraq Oil
report, 1/1/15
Reuters, “(OFFICIAL)-Iraq oil exports hit record 3.08 mln
bpd in April – ministry,” 5/1/15
Springborg, Robert, ed., Oil
and Democracy in Iraq, London, Berkeley, Beirut: London Middle East
Institute, 2007
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