Violence Has Leveled Off In Iraq

After a big surge in violence during the summer of 2014, things have slowly leveled off in Iraq. Attacks have decreased this year, while casualties have also inched down ever so slowly since June. While the Islamic State (IS) is still attempting to gain back ground and counter attack in certain parts of the country, the government has been able to seize back important territory. Overall, that has led to the security situation stabilizing in Iraq.

After a spike in attacks in January 2015 their numbers have gone down since then. At the start of the year there were 817 security incidents, followed by 655 in February, 689 in March, and 632 in April. When those figures are averaged out it is a more pronounced decline going from 26.3 per day in January, 23.3 per day in February, 22.2 in March, and 21.0 in April. This was happening despite the constant offensives by the Islamic State. While the group might be able to seize the initiative like it did in April by attacking Baiji in Salahaddin and Ramadi in Anbar, its overall capabilities appear to be declining as shown by the attack statistics.

Casualties have been going down as well. In June 2014 there were a total of 7,873 dead and wounded reported in the press. From September 2014 to January 2015 there were just over five thousand casualties, and since February that has dropped to the four thousand range. In January there were 5,203 casualties, 4,413 in February, 4,830 in March, and 4,836 in April.

Deaths and injuries in Iraq have fluctuated over the last few months. In December 2014 there were 2,032 fatalities, but then in January IS went on the offensive in Ninewa and there was heavy fighting in Salahaddin that led to 2,308 deaths. They then went down to 1,730 in February, but then back up to 2,459 in March because of the retaking of Tikrit. In April they declined again to 2,211. That averaged out to 74.4 deaths per day in January, 61.7 in February, 79.3 in March, and 73.7 in April. That’s right around the levels seen in September and October of last year. The number of wounded followed a more straight line going from 2,895 in January to 2,683 in February to 2,371 before going up to 2,625 in April due to the battle for Ramadi. The cause of the discrepancy between the dead and injured is due to the fact that the government is not disclosing casualty figures and the press not being able to cover the entire country adequately. Usually there is anywhere from two to four times as many wounded as killed in armed clashes or bombings. Instead what the press is reporting is almost equal figures for both.

In April the 2,211 dead broke down to two members of the Syrian People’s Protection Units (YPG), 29 Sahwa, 38 peshmerga, 93 Hashd al-Shaabi, 491 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 1,558 civilians. Anbar had the most fatalities due to the fighting in Ramadi with 871, then Salahaddin with 624, Baghdad with 392, 102 in Kirkuk, 97 in Ninewa, 81 in Diyala, 36 in Babil, five in Irbil, two in Maysan, and one in Basra.

The 2,625 wounded were made up of 47 peshmerga, 53 Sahwa, 238 Hashd, 315 ISF, and 1,972 civilians.

Violence In Iraq By Month 2014-2015

Month	Attacks	Deaths	Wounded	Attacks Avg Per Day	Deaths Avg Per Day
Jan 2014	1,014	1,483	2,880	32.7	47.8
Feb	955	1,285	2,531	34.1	45.8
Mar	992	1,606	2,889	32.0	51.8
Apr	990	1,456	2,924	33.0	48.5
May	905	1,462	2,602	29.1	47.1
Jun	905	4,172	3,701	30.1	139.0
Jul	937	2,299	3,319	30.2	74.1
Aug	815	3,211	3,623	26.2	103.5
Sep	713	2,230	3,139	23.7	74.3
Oct	755	2,435	3,170	24.3	78.5
Nov	605	1,931	3,089	20.1	64.3
Dec	689	2,032	3,106	22.2	65.5
Jan 2015	817	2,308	2,895	26.3	74.4
Feb	655	1,730	2,683	23.3	61.7
Mar	689	2,459	2,371	22.2	79.3
Apr	632	2,211	2,625	21.0	73.7

Violence In Iraq Apr 2015 By Province

Province	Violence
Anbar	141 Incidents 871 Killed: 322 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 545 Civilians 832 Wounded: 148 ISF, 1 Hashd, 31 Sahwa, 652 Civilians 91 Shootings 9 IEDs 7 Suicide Bombers 22 Suicide Car Bombs 7 Car Bombs 16 Mortars 2 Rockets
Babil	20 Incidents 36 Killed: 11 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 19 Civilians 78 Wounded: 18 ISF, 60 Civilians 3 Shootings 14 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Baghdad	217 Incidents 392 Killed: 18 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 9 Hashd, 359 Civilians 1,160 Wounded: 39 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 20 Hashd, 1,091 Civilians 37 Shootings 118 IEDs 24 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bobs 23 Car Bombs 3 Mortars 2 Rockets 1 Grenade
Basra	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 ISF 1 Shooting
Diyala	57 Incidents 81 Killed: 18 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 3 Hashd, 57 Civilians 150 Wounded: 30 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 74 Hashd, 36 Civilians 28 Shootings 17 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 2 Rockets
Irbil	1 Incident 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 17 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 15 Civilians
Kirkuk	23 Incidents 102 Killed: 2 ISF, 10 Hashd, 18 Peshmerga, 72 Civilians 170 Wounded: 8 ISF, 39 Peshmerga, 94 Hashd, 29 Civilians 14 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Mortars 1 Rockets
Maysan	2 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 2 Shootings
Ninewa	54 Incidents 97 Killed: 9 ISF, 2 YPG, 4 Hashd, 20 Peshmerga, 62 Civilians 25 Wounded: 6 Peshmerga, 19 Civilians 35 Shootings 24 IEDs 1 Artillery
Salahaddin	115 Incidents 624 Killed: 110 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 67 Hashd, 437 Civilians 193 Wounded: 72 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 49 Hashd, 70 Civilians 83 Shootings 17 IEDs 7 Suicide Bombers 5 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Car Bombs 5 Mortars 1 Grenade

Car Bombs in Iraq Apr 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Apr 1
Apr 2	Bab al-Mudham, Baghdad	7	26
Apr 3
Apr 4	Mansour, Baghdad
Apr 5
Apr 6	Imam Abdullah bin Imam Ali al-Hadi shrine, Diyala	4	7
Apr 7
Total	3	11	33
Apr 8
Apr 9
Apr 10	Albu Faraj x5, Ramadi x2, Anbar Karrada, Baghdad	5	13
Apr 11	Baiji Refinery x3, Salahaddin
Apr 12	Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar Baiji Refinery x2, Salahaddin
Apr 13	Amil & Baya, Baghdad	15	60
Apr 14	Mahmudiya, Babil East, Mashtal, Waziriya, Wihda x2, Yarmouk, Baghdad Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	46	97
Total	24	66	170
Apr 15	Shjariya & Sufiya x4, Anbar	1
Apr 16
Apr 17	Baghdadi, Anbar Amil & Habibiya, Baghdad Irbil, Irbil	41	73
Apr 18	Baghdadi x3, Anbar Bashir, Kirkuk	2	7
Apr 19
Apr 20	West of Baiji, Salahaddin	2	4
Apr 21
Total	14	46	84
Apr 22	West of Albu Hayat, Anbar Talibiya, Baghdad Ishaqi, Salahaddin	16	36
Apr 23	Thar Thar x3, Anbar
Apr 24	Thar Thar & Trebil x4, Anbar	21	20
Apr 25	Sakarah, Anbar
Apr 26	Nukhaib, Anbar Mahmudiya, Babil Amil & Khilani Sq, Baghdad	22	58
Apr 27	Amil, Baya, Mansour, Baghdad Qazanya, Diyala	19	50
Apr 28
Total	20	78	164
Apr 29	Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	4
Apr 30	Hurriya, Mansour x2, Sadr City, Talibiya, Baghdad	19	73
Total	6	23	73
APRIL TOTAL	67	224	524

The Islamic State has been ramping up its car bombings since the start of the year. There were 45 in January, 52 in February, 63 in March, and 68 in April. Their frequency has increased as well from 16 days of bombings and an average of 1.4 per day in January to 20 days of explosions and 2.2 per day by April. Vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) are increasingly being used to soften up hard targets in preparation for large operations, and then used in the actual assaults. They are also being employed in counter attacks. In April however IS moved back to striking just as many civilian targets in terrorist attacks as military ones. IS could be turning to more terrorist bombings to make up for its losses on the battlefield. It may also point to an impending summer offensive, which actually usually starts in the spring. Car bombs have traditionally gone up before IS goes into attack mode.