There are around fifty different Hashd al-Shaabi groups in
Iraq. They have different backgrounds and histories. A major question is what
will become of them when the war with the Islamic State is over. Some will be
disbanded and their men will return to their homes. Some will be integrated
into the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Some however want to become an
independent military-political force in the country.
Many of the Iranian backed Hashd have made no secret that
they wish to make their presence permanent in the country. A spokesman for the
organization Ahmed al-Asadi told Al
Mada that the Hashd had no political ambitions, but did want to become
institutionalized as part of the security forces. One of the overall Hashd
commanders Abu Muhandis has been pushing
that issue as well. They want the Hashd to have a part of the budget, and
become a permanent military force on par with the army and police.
Some of the Hashd that existed before the war also want to
move into politics. The spokesman for Asaib Ahl Al-Haq told Al
Masalah and a leader from Kataib Hezbollah was quoted in the Iraq
News Network that the military success of the Hashd would help them win in
the next elections. Many of the Hashd consider the current ruling elite as
corrupt, and are positioning itself as the alternative. It already has a
hallowed position amongst many of Iraq’s Shiites, which would be easy to turn
into votes.
Finally, some have claimed they want to become a third force
in Iraq with both military and political wings that would be a check on
Baghdad. As the head of the Khorasani Brigade Hamed al-Jazaeery said
the Hashd should become like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
which is a force in both Iran’s military and politics. A Badr commander took
that a step further saying
that the Hashd should become an alternative government. He meant groups that
would keep a check on Baghdad. Many would like that position to be formalized
after the war.
What is new is that these ambitions have grown with the
Hashd victories. They see themselves as the saviors of the country having
stepped in when the army and police collapsed in the summer of 2014. Why not
turn those successes into political power? Some groups like Badr and Asaib Ahl
Al-Haq are already part of the government having run in previous elections. All
also take inspirations from their benefactors the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah,
which mix their military power with a role in politics. This will be a huge
challenge for Baghdad as the current ruling elite will not want to lose votes
to the Hashd, while being afraid of the armaments of the groups. The Hashd
could just end up being co-opted. On the other hand, the government could be
intimidated and use the ISF to crack down on unruly Hashd leading to armed
conflicts. There is a precedent for this as well as the Sadrists, the Supreme Council,
the Kurdish parties and more all entered politics after 2003 with armed wings. The
Shiite parties used their militias to not only fight the insurgency but to kill
and assassinate each other and take over local governments and ISF units.
Whatever way this plays out it will likely lead to more instability on the
Iraqi political scene.
SOURCES
Hendawi, Hamza and Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Fears in Iraqi
government, army over Shiite militias’ power,” Associated Press, 3/21/16
Iraq News Network, “Kataib Hezbollah: the leaders of the
popular crowd are the future leaders of Iraq,” 6/25/15
Knights, Michael, “Time to Focus on the Wars Within the War
Against the Islamic State,” War on the Rocks, 12/21/15
Al Mada, “The Popular Crowd will turn to the Commander in
Chief,” 3/26/16
Al Masalah, “League of the Righteous suggest their
participation in the upcoming elections,” 7/21/15
Pelham, Nicolas, “ISIS & the Shia Revival in Iraq,” New
York Review of Books, 6/4/15
Shafaq News, “Nouri al-Maliki: the poplar crowd became the
third military force in Iraq,” 4/13/15
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