Violence In Iraq, April 2016

Violence has been slowly creeping back up in Iraq in 2016. The number of reported incidents was higher in the first four months of the year compared to the last quarter of 2015. This was in part due to new government offensives, which led to Islamic State counterattacks. At the same time the militants were carrying out more operations in places like Diyala, Baghdad, and the south. All together that led to a rising tide of attacks.

In April there were 599 reported incidents. That was lower than the 665 recorded in March, the highest amount of the year, but above the 549 in February, and the same as January’s 598. When averaged out there have were 19.2 attacks per day in January, 18.9 in February, 21.4 in March, and 19.9 in April. Those figures compared to 21.9 incidents per day in the third quarter of 2015, and 18.1 in the fourth.

Avg. Attacks Per Day

3^rd Qtr 2015 21.9

4^th Qtr 2015 18.1

Jan 19.2

Feb 18.9

Mar 21.4

Apr 19.9

There have been two causes for the increase in violence in the country. The first was counterattacks to government offensives. That accounted for the 92 incidents in Anbar in April, the 81 in Ninewa, and the 50 in Kirkuk. In Anbar, the government continued to clear out the Ramadi sector, while also freeing Hit and moving into the Hit-Haditha Valley. The operations in Fallujah and Garma however continued to stall going through the same areas that have been fought over for months. In Kirkuk the Hashd and Peshmerga freed Bashir, and in Ninewa a move was made in the Makhmour district south of Mosul. Those all evoked violent responses from the Islamic State. Meanwhile, in Baghdad and Diyala, IS has been launching new terrorist operations, along with bombings in southern Iraq.

The increase was seen in the average attacks per day. In December 2015 there were 2.4 incidents per day in Anbar, than reaching 3.0-3.1 in 2016. Baghdad went from 7.7 per day in December to over 9 in March and April. Diyala saw an average of 0.7 attacks per day in December, and then went to 1.4 per day in March and April. Ninewa was already high at 3.0 attacks per day in December, then dipped to 1.8 and 1.6 in February, before going back up to 2.7 in March and April. Finally, Kirkuk saw 0.7 incidents per day in December and January, and then more than doubled to 1.6 by April.

Attacks In Most Violence Provinces In Iraq Dec 2015-Apr 2016

	Anbar	Baghdad	Diyala	Ninewa	Kirkuk
Dec	2.4	7.7	0.7	3.0	0.7
Jan	3.0	8.5	1.3	1.8	0.7
Feb	3.1	8.9	1.1	1.6	1.7
Mar	3.1	9.9	1.4	2.7	1.4
Apr	3.0	9.1	1.4	2.7	1.6

In Anbar there were 92 attacks, 226 dead and 234 wounded reported in the media for April. Almost all of those casualties came in the center of the province as IS tried to fight back government advances in places like Hit, Baghdadi, Subhait, Kubaisa, while holding its ground in the Fallujah and Garma districts. Almost all of the 111 civilian deaths and 147 injured came from Ramadi. Two mass graves were discovered there, while around 200 people were killed and injured when local leaders encouraged people to return to the city before it was cleared of IEDs. 4 suicide car bombs and 6 suicide bombers also hit the security forces, while they claimed to have killed 65 suicide bombers and blown up 87 car bombs. Those numbers are regularly inflated, and usually can be detected in press reports that start off with one car bomb destroyed in the morning, which becomes several by the end of the day along with some suicide bombers thrown in. Overall, the government has steadily gained ground in the governorate, but has been unable to hold onto the smaller towns, which consistently change hands.

12 were killed in Babil, and another 38 wounded there in 17 incidents. Violence returned to its normally low level in the province in April after two large suicide bombings in March. Almost all of the incidents occurred in the northern section of the governorate where IS moved into after it lost its long time base in Jurf al-Sakhr. Usually there are just a couple shootings and IEDs, which was what occurred in April with 2 sticky bombs, 3 gunfire incidents, and 13 IEDs.

The capital has become the main target of the Islamic State as it loses territory in the country. There were 273 incidents there leading to 413 dead and 1,006 wounded. IS picked up its bombings in the governorate with 4 suicide bombers and 8 car bombs. In comparison there was just 1 suicide bomber and no successful car bombs in Baghdad in March, 4 suicide bombers and 1 car bomb in February, and 3 suicide bombers and 3 car bombs in January. The 8 car bombs in April was the most the province had seen since 11 went off in August 2015.

Southern Baghdad continued to face the most violence. There were 101 incidents there versus 55 in the east, 53 in the north, 43 in the west, 16 in the center, and 5 in unknown locations. The south witnessed a mortar attack, 2 car bombs, 2 grenade attacks, 7 sticky bombs, 16 shootings, and 71 IEDs. In the east incidents were a mixture of IS attacks along with vigilantes, criminals, and Hashd elements, which was shown with 1 stabbing, 3 kidnappings, 4 major robberies, and 13 bodies being dumped there. The capital like the rest of the country has seen a growth in crime with the insecurity. There were 10 kidnappings reported, 14 robberies of sizeable sums of money, and 34 bodies found in the streets during the month.

Violence in Baghdad Apr 2016

Center: 16 – 1 Suicide Bomber Arrested, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Sticky Bombs, 1 Robbery, 3 Shootings, 9 IEDs

East: 42 –1 Suicide Bomber, 1 Grenade, 1 Stabbing, 2 Suicide Car Bombs, 2 Kidnappings, 2

Shooting/Robberies, 5 Sticky Bombs, 3 Robbers, 8 IEDs, 17 shooting

Outer East: 13 – 1 Suicide Truck Bomb, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Shooting/Robbery, 2 Sticky Bombs, 2 Shootings,

6 IEDs

North: 20 – 1 Suicide Bomber, 1 Suicide Car Bomb, 1 Robbery, 1 Mortar, 2 Kidnappings, 2 Sticky Bombs,

4 Shootings, 8 IEDs

Outer North: 33 – 1 Suicide Bomber, 1 Shooting/Robbery, 1 Gunfire/Kidnapping, 2 Suicide Car Bombs,

2 Sticky Bombs, 6 Shootings, 20 IEDs

South: 48 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Robbery, 5 Sticky Bombs, 8 Shootings, 33 IEDs

Outer South: 53 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Suicide Car Bomb, 1 Mortar, 2 Sticky Bombs, 2 Grenades, 8 Shootings,

38 IEDs

West: 24 – 1 Robbery, 1 Shooting/Kidnapping, 1 Shooting/Robbery, 3 Sticky Bombs, 3 Shootings, 14 IEDs

Outer West: 19 – 1 Suicide Bomber Killed, 1 Suicide Bomber, 2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed, 2 Mortars,

2 Shootings, 13 IEDs

Unknown: 5 – 1 Newspaper Raided, 1 Shooting/Robbery, 1 Shooting, 2 Kidnappings

Basra witnessed a change from its usual low-level political violence and tribal conflicts when a suicide car bomb went off in Basra City that killed 5 and wounded 13. That was the first such incident since October 2015. Since IS lost its base in Jurf al-Sakhr, Babil there have been hardly any car bombings in all of southern Iraq. Hitting Basra was another sign that the Islamic State was moving towards terrorism to make up for its defeats on the battlefield.

Similarly, there was a suicide bombing in Dhi Qar, while another was arrested before he could set off his device. The successful bombing killed 14 and wounded another 27. The last time the governorate was bombed was June 2013 when a car bomb went off.

IS has picked up its operations in Diyala with a suicide bomber, another one killed, and a car bomb destroyed. Overall, there were 43 incidents there in April with 29 dead and 40 wounded. Those were spread out over almost every region of the governorate. IS still holds several bases in the province such as Abu Saida and the Hamrin Mountains, which it has used to attack the surrounding provinces, but now is using to hit Diyala as well.

In Karbala there was one incident when some rockets were found before they could be triggered and launched.

During the month the Peshmerga and Hashd were able to liberate the town of Bashir in the south. That provoked a large number of counter attacks by IS, which accounted for reports that 8 suicide bombers were killed, and 15 car bombs destroyed. The fighting in that area accounted for most of the 54 dead, 124 wounded, and 50 incidents in April.

The Iraqi forces continued to struggle with its Makhmour campaign. Very little ground was freed due to bad weather, an initial lack of air support, and green troops who were deploying to combat as a unit for the first time. That led to several stalls, and the government still has not had any major breakthroughs, only some heavy casualties. The operation was launched to secure several bases in the district that house both American and Turkish trainers. Those were still being hit during the month.

In the territory still held by IS in Ninewa, it was carrying out its regular executions. The group reportedly killed 163 people in April. Two mass graves were also discovered with Yazidis and members of the security forces in them. There was also a report that the group executed 250 women for not cooperating. All together there were 81 reported incidents, 612 killed, and 167 wounded for the month.

Violence has dropped off considerably in Salahaddin, which used to regularly have some of the highest attack numbers each month. After the Hashd led offensive freed Baiji, most of the fighting has been limited to skirmishes in the Ajeel and Alas oil fields and the Makhmour Mountains in the northeast, and the rural areas surrounding Samarra in the center. What has changed is that IS elements have re-infiltrated into Baiji and Tikrit. Every week now there are reports of shootings, IEDs, and occasional clashes there as well. With most of the major units moving on to other areas of the province and country that has allowed space for insurgents to move back in. This points to the continuing dilemma for the government to maintain security in freed districts.

There were 13 successful vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in April. Those occurred in Basra, 1, Anbar, 4, and Baghdad, 8. The government claimed it destroyed another 171, an obvious exaggeration. Too many times Iraqi forces claim every major attack includes at least one VBIED and then increase the number blown up as the day progresses. That makes it impossible to determine how many car bombs were actually launched each month, and whether they have gone up or down overall.

Violence In Iraq 2015-16

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	911	2,656	3,032 + 150
FEB	730	2,345	2,366
MAR	820	2,665	2,529
APR	751	2,753	2,621
MAY	674	2,565 + 1,499	1,952 + 646
JUN	708	2,153 + 405	2,174
JUL	688	2,716	3,198 + 4,024
AUG	684	2,440 + 760	1,777
SEP	649	1,731	1,668 + 3,003
OCT	589	1,144	1,555
NOV	530	1,174	1,455 + 124 + 1,322
DEC	553	1,155	1,252 + 5,920
Jan 1-7	150	808	421
Jan 8-14	140	436	417
Jan 15-21	135	275	227
Jan 22-28	132	392	322
Jan 29-31	41	81	334
JAN	598	2,052	1,721
Feb 1-7	146	575	313
Feb 8-14	119	146	323
Feb 15-21	130	225	239
Feb 22-29	153	371	690
FEB	549	1,281	1,566
Mar 1-7	183	321	478
Mar 8-14	168	408	415
Mar 15-21	130	349	409
Mar 22-28	135	213	420
Mar 29-31	49	172	121
MAR	665	1,463	1,843
Apr 1-7	144	239	444
Apr 8-14	141	271	391
Apr 15-21	124	436	242
Apr 22-28	160	413	524
Apr 29-30	30	61	121
APR	599	1,420	1,722

Security By Province Apr 15-21, 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	92 Incidents 226 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 1 Hashd, 111 Civilians, 113 ISF 234 Wounded: 1 Hashd, 2 Sahwa, 84 ISF, 147 Civilians 35 Shootings 13 IEDs 6 Suicide Bombers 4 Suicide Car Bombs 5 Rockets 10 Mortars 65 Suicide Bombers Killed 36 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 51 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	17 Incidents 12 Killed: 2 Hashd, 4 ISF, 6 Civilians 38 Wounded: 9 Hashd, 13 ISF, 16 Civilians 3 Shootings 13 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs
Baghdad	273 Incidents 413 Killed: 8 Sahwa, 21 Hashd, 38 ISF, 346 Civilians 1,006 8 Sahwa, 34 Hashd, 107 ISF, 857 Civilians 62 Shootings 148 IEDs 24 Sticky Bombs 4 Suicide Bombers 7 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 4 Mortars 3 Grenades 2 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested 2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
Basra	3 Incidents 6 Killed: 6 Civilians 13 Wounded: 13 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Sound Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Dhi Qar	2 Incidents 14 Killed: 14 Civilians 27 Wounded: 27 Civilians 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Diyala	43 Incidents 29 Killed: 2 Hashd, 3 ISF, 24 Civilians 40 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 4 ISF, 34 Civilians 15 Shootings 9 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 6 Mortars 1 Suicide Bomber Killed 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Karbala	1 Incident 1 Rockets
Kirkuk	50 Incidents 54 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 3 ISF, 20 Hashd, 30 Civilians 124 Wounded: 3 ISF, 3 Civilians, 9 Peshmerga, 109 Hashd 22 Shootings 8 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 3 Rockets 3 Mortars 8 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested 8 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Ninewa	81 Incidents 612 Killed: 1 Volunteer, 1 Hashd, 50 Peshmerga, 81 ISF, 479 Civilians 167 Wounded: 20 Volunteers, 35 ISF, 112 Peshmerga 28 Shootings 68 IEDs 6 Mortars 4 Rockets 45 Suicide Bombers Killed 24 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 30 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	37 Incidents 54 Killed: 6 ISF, 9 Peshmerga, 10 Civilians, 29 Hashd 73 Wounded: 6 Peshmerga, 7 ISF, 13 Civilians, 47 Hashd 27 Shootings 1 IED 3 Mortars 13 Suicide Bombers Killed 3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 9 Car Bombs Destroyed

Car Bombs In Iraq Apr, 2016

Date	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Apr 1	Hit, Anbar
Apr 2	Hit, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Apr 3
Apr 4	Baghdadi x2, Anbar Meshada & Taji, Baghdad Basra, Basra Baghdadi, Rashad, Shihabi, Subhait, Anbar – 21 destroyed Abu Ghraib, Baghdad – 2 destroyed Nasir, Ninewa – 6 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed	16	35
Apr 5	New Baghdad, Baghdad Baghdadi & Subhait, Anbar – 9 destroyed Tal Ahmed, Kirkuk – 1 destroyed Makhmour, Nasir, Ninewa – 13 destroyed	3	14
Apr 6	Kubaisa, Anbar – 3 destroyed Nasir, Ninewa – 7 destroyed
Apr 7	160 Kilo, Garma, Hit, Anbar – 7 destroyed Tal Ahmed, Kirkuk – 3 Destroyed Hardan, Ninewa – 2 destroyed Shirqat-Baiji Road, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
Totals	7 – 81 Destroyed	19	49
Apr 8	Hit, Anbar – 10 destroyed Makhmour, Ninewa – 7 destroyed
Apr 9	Albu Bali, Anbar Hit & Subhait, Anbar – 6 destroyed	12	2
Apr 10	Bashir, Kirkuk – 3 destroyed Nasir, Ninewa – 1 destroyed Baiji, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
Apr 11
Apr 12	Hit, Anbar – 1 destroyed Nasir, Ninewa – 2 destroyed
Apr 13	Makhmour & Nasir, Ninewa – 3 destroyed
Apr 14	Makhoul, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Totals	1 – 36 Destroyed	12	2
Apr 15
Apr 16	Haj Ali, Ninewa – 4 destroyed
Apr 17	Khasfa, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Apr 18	Bashir & Tel Ahmed, Kirkuk – 5 destroyed
Apr 19	Baghdadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Apr 20
Apr 21	Saqlawiya, Anbar – 1 destroyed Bashir, Kirkuk – 1 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
Totals	0 – 19 Destroyed	-	-
Apr 22
Apr 23	Arab Jabour & Rashidiya, Baghdad Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	10	36
Apr 24
Apr 25	New Baghdad & Shakha, Baghdad Baghdadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed	13	43
Apr 26
Apr 27	Albu Tapah, Garma, Hit Valley & Thar Thar, Anbar – 10 destroyed
Apr 28	Boutaya & Dolab, Anbar – 6 destroyed Baquba, Diyala – 1 destroyed Mahana, Ninewa – 7 destroyed
Totals	4 – 28 Destroyed	23	79
Apr 29	Khazraj, Anbar – 2 destroyed Muhana, Ninewa – 1 destroyed
Apr 30	Nahrawan, Baghdad Noaam, Anbar – 1 destroyed Bashir, Kirkuk – 1 destroyed Makhmour, Ninewa – 1 destroyed	43	19
TOTALS	1 – 6 Destroyed	43	19
GRAND TOTAL	13 – 171 Destroyed	97	149

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "International coalition foils suicide attack on Baghdadi's eastern entrance," Iraqi News, 4/25/16

Alsumaria, "Baghdad Operations announced the death of one soldier and wounding four others blown up in Husseiniya," 4/23/16

Al Forat, "Foil Daash car bomb east of Baghdadi district Anbar," 4/30/16

Al Maalomah, "17 martyrs and wounded from the security forces north of Baghdad from a suicide bomber blowing up," 4/23/16

- "The destruction of a booby-trapped vehicle by Daash south of Mosul," 4/30/16

- "The destruction of three Daash car bombs east of Fallujah," 4/27/16

- "Two suicide bombers killed by aerial bombardment in Thar Thar," 4/27/16

Al Mada, "Daash bombed in al-Baghdadi complex by International Alliance targeting rocket launchers," 4/27/16

- "Death toll in suicide bombing north Baghdad up to 35 dead and wounded," 4/23/16

- "Thwarted a suicide car bomb attack targeting security forces south of Mosul," 4/29/16

- "Turkmen crowd thwarted a suicide car bomb east of al-Bashir," 4/30/16

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "6 Iraqi army members killed, wounded in car bomb explosion south of Baghdad," Iraqi News, 4/25/16

- "Jazeera Operations forces kill 21 ISIS members west of Ramadi, 203 IEDs dismantled," Iraqi News, 4/28/16

- "Security forces foil suicide attack in Karma District, 7 ISIS members killed," Iraqi News, 4/28/16

Morris, Loveday, "Islamic State targets Shiite pilgrims in Iraq, but detonates truck bomb in a market instead," Washington Post, 4/30/16

New Sabah, "Security file," 4/26/16

NINA, "Defense Ministry announces the return of more than /41/ thousand families to Haditha District," 4/23/16

- "Security Forces Foil An Attack For Daash South Of Mosul," 4/28/16

Salaheddin, Sinan, "Iraq: Car Bombing in Baghdad Kills at Least 12 Civilians," Associated Press, 4/25/16

Shafaq News, "Iraqi police finds 2 mass graves in Islamic State-free Ramadi," 4/20/16

Sotaliraq, "Car Bomb dismantled near Baquba government building," 4/28/16

- "Killing and wounding of 11 soldiers in a second car bomb attack in Baghdad," 4/23/16

- "Security committee in Basra council declares the killing and wounding of 18 civilian in bombing in Kakh Street," 4/4/16

- "Some 80 people killed in separate attacks across Iraq," 4/4/16

Xinhua, "24 killed in truck bomb explosion near Iraq's Baghdad," 4/30/16

- "Security forces free 2 villages in Iraq's Anbar, 27 IS militants killed," 4/30/16