Monday, August 22, 2016

Declining Violence In Iraq, Jan-Jul 2016


These are the most complete security statistics collected so far by Musings On Iraq. They cover January to July 2016. The main sources for these numbers are 41 newspapers that are read each day. Those are a mix of Iraqi, western and Arab media outlets. Each security incident mentioned is noted in an Excel spreadsheet with date, location, type of attack, casualties, article title, and link. Additional information comes from Airwars, which covers Coalition air strikes on Iraq and Syria, the United Nations monthly security reports, and Iraq Body Count.

Security incidents are the best barometer of violence in Iraq. That’s because the government is suppressing its losses. In most major clashes with the Islamic State the authorities release no numbers for casualties. Another indicator is the fact that the number of wounded should be two to five times higher than the number of dead, yet almost every month those figures are either roughly equal or there are more killed than injured. In total, there have been 12,673 dead and 18,350 from January to July. While not all attacks are reported, their coverage is far more consistent than casualty figures.

What the numbers reveal is that security is improving across the country. There was a slight increase in attacks during the Islamic State’s spring offensive, but the trend is going downwards. In January 2016 there were an average of 23.3 incidents per day. That went down to 22.6 in February, 21.9 in March, 20.9 in April, 21.6 in May, 21.0 in June, and 17.0 in July.

Broken down by province, incidents have declined in five out of six major battlefields. Out of Anbar, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin only Diyala has seen violence go up in the first seven months of the year. In January there were an average of 1.9 incidents per day in that governorate, which went down to 1.4 per day in March and April, but then climbed back up to 2.0 in July. Kirkuk also saw a slight uptick in the summer from 1.1 in June to 1.4 in July, but that was still below figures seen at the start of the year when there were 2.0 in February, 1.5 in March, 1.6 in April, and 1.9 in May. Otherwise, the numbers have gone down more dramatically in the other provinces. Baghdad for instance, went from 11.6 incidents per day in January and February to 8.9 in June and July.

Two major factors contributed to the downtown. First, after Fallujah was freed there were no more major government campaigns going on, which invoke a large number of counter attacks by the Islamic State. That’s best shown in Anbar where incidents went from 3.6 per day in January to just 1.2 by July due to the liberation of Fallujah. Second, the militants spring offensive ended in the summer and there has been a downtown in their operations since then. Unfortunately, IS’s attacks are cyclical and there has already been an uptick in violence in Baghdad in August. Still, the group is losing ground and re-grouping so security will continue to improve for the rest of the year.

Violence In Iraq Jan-Jul 2016
Month
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan
723
2,418
1,986
Feb
657
1,685
1,724
Mar
681
1,684
2,095
Apr
629
1,835
1,904
May
672
1,612
2,484
Jun
630
2,111
6,449
Jul
530
1,328
1,708
Totals
4,522
12,673
18,350







Anbar
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
112 Incidents
589 Killed
571 Wounded
61 Shootings
12 IEDs
24 Suicide Car
   Bombs
2 Car Bombs
2 Rockets
3 Mortars
1 Motorcycle
   Bomb
   Destroyed
79 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
109 Suicide
   Car Bombs
   Destroyed
44 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
103 Incidents
325 Killed
190 Wounded
49 Shootings
6 IEDs
6 Suicide Car
   Bombs
1 Rocket
2 Artillery
6 Mortars
4 Motorcycle
   Bombs
   Destroyed
81 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
41 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
66 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
102 Incidents
430 Killed
290 Wounded
45 Shootings
9 IEDs
12 Suicide
   Bombers
6 Suicide Car
   Bombs
1 Car Bomb
5 Mortars
58 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
45 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
36 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
95 Incidents
248 Killed
252 Wounded
35 Shootings
13 IEDs
6 Suicide
   Bombers
4 Suicide Car
   Bombs
5 Rockets
10 Mortars
65 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
36 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
51 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
121 Incidents
252 Killed
286 Wounded
38 Shootings
7 IEDs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
5 Suicide Car
   Bombs
2 Car Bombs
8 Mortars
3 Rockets
130 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
68 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
49 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
125 Incidents
794 Killed
4,783 Wounded
39 Shootings
12 IEDs
2 Suicide
   Bombers
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
1 Car Bomb
3 Rockets
6 Mortars
38 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
2 Motorcycle
   Bombs
   Destroyed
24 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
80 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
40 Incidents
77 Killed
29 Wounded
12 Shootings
6 IEDs
2 Suicide Car
   Bombs
2 Mortars
9 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
2 Suicide
   Motorcycle
   Bombers
   Killed
15 Suicide
   Car Bombs
   Destroyed
32 Car Bombs
   Destroyed

Babil
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
12 Incidents
13 Killed
9 Wounded
5 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
6 Incidents
4 Killed
6 Wounded
4 Shootings
3 IEDs
11 Incidents
106 Killed
214 Wounded
3 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Sticky
   Bombs
1 Suicide
   Bombers
1 Suicide
   Truck Bomb
11 Incidents
5 Killed
9 Wounded
3 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
10 Incidents
8 Killed
25 Wounded
3 Shootings
9 IEDs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
   Killed
10 Incidents
1 Killed
4 Wounded
3 Shootings
2 IEDs
9 Incidents
4 Killed
5 Wounded
1 Shooting
7 IEDs
1 Mortar

Baghdad
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
360 Incidents
501 Killed
1,167 Wounded
106 Shootings
172 IEDs
25 Sticky
   Bombs
2 Motorcycle
   Bombs
3 Suicide
   Bombers
3 Car Bombs
4 Mortars
2 Grenades
1 Motorcycle
   Bomb
   Dismantled
1 Car Bomb
   Dismantled
339 Incidents
525 Killed
1,232 Wounded
109 Shootings
172 IEDs
18 Sticky
   Bombs
4 Suicide
   Bombers
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
6 Grenades
4 Mortars
4 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
330 Incidents
394 Killed
1,097 Wounded
81 Shootings
173 IEDs
31 Sticky
   Bombs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
1 Motorcycle
   Bomb
4 Grenades
4 Mortars
3 Suicide
   Bombers
   Arrested/
   Killed
1 Car Bomb
   Destroyed
278 Incidents
419 Killed
1,033 Wounded
62 Shootings
155 IEDs
24 Sticky
   Bombs
4 Suicide
   Bombers
7 Suicide Car
   Bombs
1 Car Bomb
4 Mortars
3 Grenades
2 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed/
   Arrested
2 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
283 Incidents
628 Killed
1,478 Wounded
62 Shootings
151 IEDs
30 Sticky
   Bombs
12 Suicide
   Bombs
1 Motorcycle
   Bomb
10 Suicide Car
   Bombs
3 Car Bombs
4 Mortars
17 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
2 Car Bombs
   Dismantled
267 Incidents
430 Killed
1,241 Wounded
49 Shootings
165 IEDs
24 Sticky
   Bombs
9 Suicide
   Bombers
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
1 Grenade
4 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
277 Incidents
714 Killed
1,400 Wounded
50 Shootings
170 IEDs
21 Sticky
   Bombs
5 Suicide
   Bombers
3 Suicide Car
   Bombs
1 Car Bomb
2 Mortars
2 Rockets
1 Grenade
16 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed/
   Arrested
2 Car Bombs
   Dismantled

Basra
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
3 Incidents
2 Wounded
2 IEDs
1 Grenade
1 Incident
1 IED
2 Incidents
2 Killed
1 Wounded
2 Shootings
3 Incidents
6 Killed
13 Wounded
1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Sound Bomb
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
3 Incidents
4 Wounded
1 Shooting
1 Grenade
2 Incidents
2 IEDs
2 Incidents
2 IEDs

Dhi Qar
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
1 Incident
1 Grenade
-
-
2 Incidents
14 Killed
27 Wounded
1 Suicide
   Bomber
1 Suicide
   Bomber
   Arrested
1 Incident
1 IED
1 Incident
1 IED
1 Incident
1 IED

Diyala
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
60 Incidents
119 Killed
108 Wounded
25 Shootings
23 IEDs
3 Sticky
   Bombs
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
1 Car Bomb
4 Mortars
1 Car Bomb
   Dismantled
37 Incidents
60 Killed
70 Wounded
11 Shootings
15 IEDs
3 Sticky
   Bombs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
1 Mortar
1 Bicycle
   Bomb
   Dismantled
46 Incidents
29 Killed
18 Wounded
8 Shootings
13 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
11 Mortars
2 Suicide
   Bombers
   Arrested
1 Car Bomb
   Dismantled
43 Incidents
29 Killed
40 Wounded
15 Shootings
9 IEDs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
6 Mortars
1 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
1 Car Bomb
   Destroyed
60 Incidents
89 Killed
198 Wounded
28 Shootings
14 IEDs
2 Sticky
   Bombs
2 Suicide
   Bombers
1 Car Bomb
9 Mortars
1 Grenade
1 Car Bomb
   Dismantled
55 Incidents
47 Killed
40 Wounded
23 Shootings
13 IEDs
1 Sticky
   Bombs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
4 Mortars
8 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed/
   Arrested
65 Incidents
53 Killed
52 Wounded
23 Shootings
18 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
4 Mortars
9 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed/
   Arrested
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
   Arrested
2 Car Bombs
   Dismantled

Dohuk
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
-
-
-
-
-
-
1 Incident
2 Killed
2 Wounded
1 IED

Irbil
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
1 Incident
1 Rocket
2 Incidents
2 Killed
1 Shooting
1 Sticky Bom
-
-
-
2 Incidents
10 Wounded
1 Grenade
1 Iranian
   Artillery


Karbala
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
-
1 Incident
1 Shooting
-
1 Incident
1 Rockets
-
2 Incidents
10 killed
28 Wounded
1 Car Bomb
12 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
3 Car Bombs
   Destroyed


Kirkuk
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
33 Incidents
46 Killed
17 Wounded
13 Shootings
7 IEDs
1 Grenade
58 Incidents
138 Killed
43 Wounded
30 Shootings
66 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
5 Rockets
48 Incidents
94 Killed
159 Wounded
20 Shootings
4 IEDs
8 Rockets
1 Suicide
   Bomber
   Arrested
17 Suicide
  Bombers
   Killed
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
   Destroyed
3 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
50 Incidents
54 killed
124 Wounded
22 Shootings
8 IEDs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
3 Rockets
3 Mortars
8 Suicide
   Bombers
   Arrested
8 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
7 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
61 Incidents
78 Killed
91 Wounded
19 Shootings
20 IEDs
2 Mortars
10 Rockets
1 Suicide
   Bomber
   Killed
6 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
34 Incidents
34 Killed
14 Wounded
16 Shootings
6 IEDs
5 Mortars
1 Car Bomb
   Dismantled
44 Incidents
77 Killed
33 Wounded
21 Shootings
7 IEDs
3 Sticky
   Bombs
1 Rockets
2 Mortars
4 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed/
   Arrested

KRG
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
-
1 Incident
3 Killed
2 Wounded
1 Turkish Air
   Strike
2 Incidents
112 Killed
2 Turkish Air
   Strikes
-
1 Incident
18 Killed
1 Turkish Air
   Strike
-
1 Incident
20 Killed
1 Turkish Air
   Strike

Muthanna
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
-
-
-
-
2 Incidents
38 Killed
86 Wounded
2 Car Bombs
1 Car Bomb
   Dismantled



Ninewa
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
74 Incidents
1,089 Killed
61 Wounded
30 Shootings
17 IEDs
2 Rockets
4 Mortars
10 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
64 Incidents
610 Killed
145 Wounded
23 Shootings
43 IEDs
2 Mortars
4 Rockets
4 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
3 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
9 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
92 Incidents
476 Killed
259 Wounded
33 Shootings
297 IEDs
10 Suicide
   Bombers
7 Suicide Car
   Bombs
2 Chemical
   Rockets
5 Rockets
1 Artillery
6 Mortars
36 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
6 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
3 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
105 Incidents
972 Killed
313 Wounded
28 Shootings
68 IEDs
6 Mortars
4 Rockets
45 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
24 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
30 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
97 Incidents
438 Killed
201 Wounded
47 Shootings
41 IEDs
11 Suicide
   Bombers
5 Car Bombs
8 Mortars
2 Rockets
44 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
23 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
78 Incidents
534 Killed
122 Wounded
37 Shootings
28 IEDs
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
1 Mortar
28 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
3 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
4 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
51 Incidents
276 Killed
68 Wounded
15 Shootings
38 IEDs
1 Suicide
   Bomber
5 Mortars
1 Rocket
17 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed/
   Arrested
15 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
2 Car Bombs
   Destroyed

Qadisiyah
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
-
-
-
-
1 incident
1 Shooting
-
-

Salahaddin
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
66 Incidents
96 Killed
50 Wounded
38 Shootings
2 IEDs
7 Suicide
   Bombers
6 Suicide Car
   Bombs
4 Rockets
1 Grenade
18 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
22 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
13 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
45 Incidents
18 Killed
36 Wounded
32 Shootings
1 IED
1 Suicide Car
   Bomb
2 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
5 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
7 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
48 Incidents
41 Killed
57 Wounded
26 Shootings
4 IEDs
3 Suicide Car
   Bombs
2 Mortars
11 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
14 Suicide
   Car Bombs
   Destroyed
25 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
40 Incidents
83 Killed
93 Wounded
27 Shootings
1 IED
3 Mortars
13 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
3 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
9 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
32 Incidents
68 Killed
115 Wounded
20 Shootings
5 IEDs
8 Suicide
   Bombers
1 Car Bomb
1 Grenade
4 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
53 Incidents
261 Killed
204 Wounded
27 Shootings
14 IEDs
1 Suicide
   Bombers
3 Suicide Car
   Bombs
6 Car Bombs
1 Rockets
2 Mortars
1 Suicide
   Bomber
   Killed
34 Car Bombs
   Destroyed
35 Incidents
104 Killed
118 Wounded
16 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
3 Suicide
   Bombers
2 Mortars
1 Rocket
7 Suicide
   Bombers
   Killed
6 Suicide Car
   Bombs
   Destroyed
13 Car Bombs
   Destroyed

Sulaymaniya
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
1 Incident
1 Wounded
1 Shooting
-
-
-
-
2 Incidents
3 Wounded
1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Incident
1 Wounded
1 Shooting

Wasit
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
-
-
-
-
-
-
3 Incidents
1 Killed
1 Shooting
1 Sound Bomb
1 Grende

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