Declining Violence In Iraq, Jan-Jul 2016

These are the most complete security statistics collected so far by Musings On Iraq. They cover January to July 2016. The main sources for these numbers are 41 newspapers that are read each day. Those are a mix of Iraqi, western and Arab media outlets. Each security incident mentioned is noted in an Excel spreadsheet with date, location, type of attack, casualties, article title, and link. Additional information comes from Airwars, which covers Coalition air strikes on Iraq and Syria, the United Nations monthly security reports, and Iraq Body Count.

Security incidents are the best barometer of violence in Iraq. That’s because the government is suppressing its losses. In most major clashes with the Islamic State the authorities release no numbers for casualties. Another indicator is the fact that the number of wounded should be two to five times higher than the number of dead, yet almost every month those figures are either roughly equal or there are more killed than injured. In total, there have been 12,673 dead and 18,350 from January to July. While not all attacks are reported, their coverage is far more consistent than casualty figures.

What the numbers reveal is that security is improving across the country. There was a slight increase in attacks during the Islamic State’s spring offensive, but the trend is going downwards. In January 2016 there were an average of 23.3 incidents per day. That went down to 22.6 in February, 21.9 in March, 20.9 in April, 21.6 in May, 21.0 in June, and 17.0 in July.

Broken down by province, incidents have declined in five out of six major battlefields. Out of Anbar, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin only Diyala has seen violence go up in the first seven months of the year. In January there were an average of 1.9 incidents per day in that governorate, which went down to 1.4 per day in March and April, but then climbed back up to 2.0 in July. Kirkuk also saw a slight uptick in the summer from 1.1 in June to 1.4 in July, but that was still below figures seen at the start of the year when there were 2.0 in February, 1.5 in March, 1.6 in April, and 1.9 in May. Otherwise, the numbers have gone down more dramatically in the other provinces. Baghdad for instance, went from 11.6 incidents per day in January and February to 8.9 in June and July.

Two major factors contributed to the downtown. First, after Fallujah was freed there were no more major government campaigns going on, which invoke a large number of counter attacks by the Islamic State. That’s best shown in Anbar where incidents went from 3.6 per day in January to just 1.2 by July due to the liberation of Fallujah. Second, the militants spring offensive ended in the summer and there has been a downtown in their operations since then. Unfortunately, IS’s attacks are cyclical and there has already been an uptick in violence in Baghdad in August. Still, the group is losing ground and re-grouping so security will continue to improve for the rest of the year.

Violence In Iraq Jan-Jul 2016

Month	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan	723	2,418	1,986
Feb	657	1,685	1,724
Mar	681	1,684	2,095
Apr	629	1,835	1,904
May	672	1,612	2,484
Jun	630	2,111	6,449
Jul	530	1,328	1,708
Totals	4,522	12,673	18,350

Anbar

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
112 Incidents 589 Killed 571 Wounded 61 Shootings 12 IEDs 24 Suicide Car    Bombs 2 Car Bombs 2 Rockets 3 Mortars 1 Motorcycle    Bomb    Destroyed 79 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 109 Suicide    Car Bombs    Destroyed 44 Car Bombs    Destroyed	103 Incidents 325 Killed 190 Wounded 49 Shootings 6 IEDs 6 Suicide Car    Bombs 1 Rocket 2 Artillery 6 Mortars 4 Motorcycle    Bombs    Destroyed 81 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 41 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 66 Car Bombs    Destroyed	102 Incidents 430 Killed 290 Wounded 45 Shootings 9 IEDs 12 Suicide    Bombers 6 Suicide Car    Bombs 1 Car Bomb 5 Mortars 58 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 45 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 36 Car Bombs    Destroyed	95 Incidents 248 Killed 252 Wounded 35 Shootings 13 IEDs 6 Suicide    Bombers 4 Suicide Car    Bombs 5 Rockets 10 Mortars 65 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 36 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 51 Car Bombs    Destroyed	121 Incidents 252 Killed 286 Wounded 38 Shootings 7 IEDs 1 Suicide    Bomber 5 Suicide Car    Bombs 2 Car Bombs 8 Mortars 3 Rockets 130 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 68 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 49 Car Bombs    Destroyed	125 Incidents 794 Killed 4,783 Wounded 39 Shootings 12 IEDs 2 Suicide    Bombers 1 Suicide Car    Bomb 1 Car Bomb 3 Rockets 6 Mortars 38 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 2 Motorcycle    Bombs    Destroyed 24 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 80 Car Bombs    Destroyed	40 Incidents 77 Killed 29 Wounded 12 Shootings 6 IEDs 2 Suicide Car    Bombs 2 Mortars 9 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 2 Suicide    Motorcycle    Bombers    Killed 15 Suicide    Car Bombs    Destroyed 32 Car Bombs    Destroyed

Babil

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
12 Incidents 13 Killed 9 Wounded 5 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	6 Incidents 4 Killed 6 Wounded 4 Shootings 3 IEDs	11 Incidents 106 Killed 214 Wounded 3 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Sticky    Bombs 1 Suicide    Bombers 1 Suicide    Truck Bomb	11 Incidents 5 Killed 9 Wounded 3 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	10 Incidents 8 Killed 25 Wounded 3 Shootings 9 IEDs 1 Suicide    Bomber    Killed	10 Incidents 1 Killed 4 Wounded 3 Shootings 2 IEDs	9 Incidents 4 Killed 5 Wounded 1 Shooting 7 IEDs 1 Mortar

Baghdad

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
360 Incidents 501 Killed 1,167 Wounded 106 Shootings 172 IEDs 25 Sticky    Bombs 2 Motorcycle    Bombs 3 Suicide    Bombers 3 Car Bombs 4 Mortars 2 Grenades 1 Motorcycle    Bomb    Dismantled 1 Car Bomb    Dismantled	339 Incidents 525 Killed 1,232 Wounded 109 Shootings 172 IEDs 18 Sticky    Bombs 4 Suicide    Bombers 1 Suicide Car    Bomb 6 Grenades 4 Mortars 4 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed	330 Incidents 394 Killed 1,097 Wounded 81 Shootings 173 IEDs 31 Sticky    Bombs 1 Suicide    Bomber 1 Motorcycle    Bomb 4 Grenades 4 Mortars 3 Suicide    Bombers    Arrested/    Killed 1 Car Bomb    Destroyed	278 Incidents 419 Killed 1,033 Wounded 62 Shootings 155 IEDs 24 Sticky    Bombs 4 Suicide    Bombers 7 Suicide Car    Bombs 1 Car Bomb 4 Mortars 3 Grenades 2 Suicide    Bombers    Killed/    Arrested 2 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed	283 Incidents 628 Killed 1,478 Wounded 62 Shootings 151 IEDs 30 Sticky    Bombs 12 Suicide    Bombs 1 Motorcycle    Bomb 10 Suicide Car    Bombs 3 Car Bombs 4 Mortars 17 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 2 Car Bombs    Dismantled	267 Incidents 430 Killed 1,241 Wounded 49 Shootings 165 IEDs 24 Sticky    Bombs 9 Suicide    Bombers 1 Suicide Car    Bomb 1 Grenade 4 Suicide    Bombers    Killed	277 Incidents 714 Killed 1,400 Wounded 50 Shootings 170 IEDs 21 Sticky    Bombs 5 Suicide    Bombers 3 Suicide Car    Bombs 1 Car Bomb 2 Mortars 2 Rockets 1 Grenade 16 Suicide    Bombers    Killed/    Arrested 2 Car Bombs    Dismantled

Basra

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
3 Incidents 2 Wounded 2 IEDs 1 Grenade	1 Incident 1 IED	2 Incidents 2 Killed 1 Wounded 2 Shootings	3 Incidents 6 Killed 13 Wounded 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Sound Bomb 1 Suicide Car    Bomb	3 Incidents 4 Wounded 1 Shooting 1 Grenade	2 Incidents 2 IEDs	2 Incidents 2 IEDs

Dhi Qar

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
1 Incident 1 Grenade	-	-	2 Incidents 14 Killed 27 Wounded 1 Suicide    Bomber 1 Suicide    Bomber    Arrested	1 Incident 1 IED	1 Incident 1 IED	1 Incident 1 IED

Diyala

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
60 Incidents 119 Killed 108 Wounded 25 Shootings 23 IEDs 3 Sticky    Bombs 1 Suicide Car    Bomb 1 Car Bomb 4 Mortars 1 Car Bomb    Dismantled	37 Incidents 60 Killed 70 Wounded 11 Shootings 15 IEDs 3 Sticky    Bombs 1 Suicide    Bomber 1 Mortar 1 Bicycle    Bomb    Dismantled	46 Incidents 29 Killed 18 Wounded 8 Shootings 13 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 11 Mortars 2 Suicide    Bombers    Arrested 1 Car Bomb    Dismantled	43 Incidents 29 Killed 40 Wounded 15 Shootings 9 IEDs 1 Suicide    Bomber 6 Mortars 1 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 1 Car Bomb    Destroyed	60 Incidents 89 Killed 198 Wounded 28 Shootings 14 IEDs 2 Sticky    Bombs 2 Suicide    Bombers 1 Car Bomb 9 Mortars 1 Grenade 1 Car Bomb    Dismantled	55 Incidents 47 Killed 40 Wounded 23 Shootings 13 IEDs 1 Sticky    Bombs 1 Suicide    Bomber 4 Mortars 8 Suicide    Bombers    Killed/    Arrested	65 Incidents 53 Killed 52 Wounded 23 Shootings 18 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Car    Bomb 4 Mortars 9 Suicide    Bombers    Killed/    Arrested 1 Suicide Car    Bomb    Arrested 2 Car Bombs    Dismantled

Dohuk

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
-	-	-	-	-	-	1 Incident 2 Killed 2 Wounded 1 IED

Irbil

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
1 Incident 1 Rocket	2 Incidents 2 Killed 1 Shooting 1 Sticky Bom	-	-	-	2 Incidents 10 Wounded 1 Grenade 1 Iranian    Artillery

Karbala

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
-	1 Incident 1 Shooting	-	1 Incident 1 Rockets	-	2 Incidents 10 killed 28 Wounded 1 Car Bomb 12 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 3 Car Bombs    Destroyed

Kirkuk

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
33 Incidents 46 Killed 17 Wounded 13 Shootings 7 IEDs 1 Grenade	58 Incidents 138 Killed 43 Wounded 30 Shootings 66 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 5 Rockets	48 Incidents 94 Killed 159 Wounded 20 Shootings 4 IEDs 8 Rockets 1 Suicide    Bomber    Arrested 17 Suicide   Bombers    Killed 1 Suicide Car    Bomb    Destroyed 3 Car Bombs    Destroyed	50 Incidents 54 killed 124 Wounded 22 Shootings 8 IEDs 1 Suicide    Bomber 3 Rockets 3 Mortars 8 Suicide    Bombers    Arrested 8 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 7 Car Bombs    Destroyed	61 Incidents 78 Killed 91 Wounded 19 Shootings 20 IEDs 2 Mortars 10 Rockets 1 Suicide    Bomber    Killed 6 Car Bombs    Destroyed	34 Incidents 34 Killed 14 Wounded 16 Shootings 6 IEDs 5 Mortars 1 Car Bomb    Dismantled	44 Incidents 77 Killed 33 Wounded 21 Shootings 7 IEDs 3 Sticky    Bombs 1 Rockets 2 Mortars 4 Suicide    Bombers    Killed/    Arrested

KRG

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
-	1 Incident 3 Killed 2 Wounded 1 Turkish Air    Strike	2 Incidents 112 Killed 2 Turkish Air    Strikes	-	1 Incident 18 Killed 1 Turkish Air    Strike	-	1 Incident 20 Killed 1 Turkish Air    Strike

Muthanna

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
-	-	-	-	2 Incidents 38 Killed 86 Wounded 2 Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb    Dismantled

Ninewa

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
74 Incidents 1,089 Killed 61 Wounded 30 Shootings 17 IEDs 2 Rockets 4 Mortars 10 Suicide    Bombers    Killed	64 Incidents 610 Killed 145 Wounded 23 Shootings 43 IEDs 2 Mortars 4 Rockets 4 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 3 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 9 Car Bombs    Destroyed	92 Incidents 476 Killed 259 Wounded 33 Shootings 297 IEDs 10 Suicide    Bombers 7 Suicide Car    Bombs 2 Chemical    Rockets 5 Rockets 1 Artillery 6 Mortars 36 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 6 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 3 Car Bombs    Destroyed	105 Incidents 972 Killed 313 Wounded 28 Shootings 68 IEDs 6 Mortars 4 Rockets 45 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 24 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 30 Car Bombs    Destroyed	97 Incidents 438 Killed 201 Wounded 47 Shootings 41 IEDs 11 Suicide    Bombers 5 Car Bombs 8 Mortars 2 Rockets 44 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 23 Car Bombs    Destroyed	78 Incidents 534 Killed 122 Wounded 37 Shootings 28 IEDs 1 Suicide Car    Bomb 1 Mortar 28 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 3 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 4 Car Bombs    Destroyed	51 Incidents 276 Killed 68 Wounded 15 Shootings 38 IEDs 1 Suicide    Bomber 5 Mortars 1 Rocket 17 Suicide    Bombers    Killed/    Arrested 15 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 2 Car Bombs    Destroyed

Qadisiyah

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
-	-	-	-	1 incident 1 Shooting	-	-

Salahaddin

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
66 Incidents 96 Killed 50 Wounded 38 Shootings 2 IEDs 7 Suicide    Bombers 6 Suicide Car    Bombs 4 Rockets 1 Grenade 18 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 22 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 13 Car Bombs    Destroyed	45 Incidents 18 Killed 36 Wounded 32 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Car    Bomb 2 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 5 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 7 Car Bombs    Destroyed	48 Incidents 41 Killed 57 Wounded 26 Shootings 4 IEDs 3 Suicide Car    Bombs 2 Mortars 11 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 14 Suicide    Car Bombs    Destroyed 25 Car Bombs    Destroyed	40 Incidents 83 Killed 93 Wounded 27 Shootings 1 IED 3 Mortars 13 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 3 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 9 Car Bombs    Destroyed	32 Incidents 68 Killed 115 Wounded 20 Shootings 5 IEDs 8 Suicide    Bombers 1 Car Bomb 1 Grenade 4 Car Bombs    Destroyed	53 Incidents 261 Killed 204 Wounded 27 Shootings 14 IEDs 1 Suicide    Bombers 3 Suicide Car    Bombs 6 Car Bombs 1 Rockets 2 Mortars 1 Suicide    Bomber    Killed 34 Car Bombs    Destroyed	35 Incidents 104 Killed 118 Wounded 16 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 3 Suicide    Bombers 2 Mortars 1 Rocket 7 Suicide    Bombers    Killed 6 Suicide Car    Bombs    Destroyed 13 Car Bombs    Destroyed

Sulaymaniya

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
1 Incident 1 Wounded 1 Shooting	-	-	-	-	2 Incidents 3 Wounded 1 Shooting 1 IED	1 Incident 1 Wounded 1 Shooting

Wasit

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
-	-	-	-	-	-	3 Incidents 1 Killed 1 Shooting 1 Sound Bomb 1 Grende