Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Security In Iraq, 4th Qtr 2015


This is the second article in a series reviewing security in Iraq. These are based upon the most complete numbers collected by Musings On Iraq so far. The basis for these figures are 41 newspapers, which are read each day. These are a collection of Iraq, western, and Arab media outlets. In addition, Airwars, which documents U.S.-led Coalition air strikes in Iraq and Syria, Iraq Body Count, and the United Nations are also consulted. This article covers the fourth quarter of 2015 when there was the last great surge of violence in Iraq.

From October to December 2015 there was a large increase in reported security incidents in Iraq. In October there were 598 incidents, 539 in November, before jumping to 659 in December. That would average out to 19.2 per day, 17.9 and 21.2 for those three months. This surge in violence was due to two factors. First, the Islamic State launched a huge terrorist campaign in Baghdad in the winter. Second, the Kurds launched an operation to free Sinjar in western Ninewa setting off heavy fighting there.

As incidents went up so did casualties. In October there were 1,190 deaths, going up to 1,521 by December. The number wounded actually went down from 1,567 in October to 1,430. In total, there were 1,796 incidents reported leading to 3,927 fatalities, and 4,470 injured for the last quarter of the year. The close alignment between dead and wounded was another sign that Iraqi authorities were not divulging their losses. The number of injured is regularly 2-4 times higher than deaths, but in most major clashes casualties are rarely mentioned, and figures have never been released for any of the large campaigns to free territory since the war started in June 2014.

Violence In Iraq 4th Qtr 2015

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
Oct
598
1,190
1,567
Nov
539
1,216
1,473
Dec
659
1,521
1,430
Totals
1,796
3,927
4,470

During the last quarter of 2015 Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk and Ninewa saw rising violence, while in Anbar the number of attacks was flat, and going down in Salahaddin. As the Islamic State was losing more territory in the country it came to focus upon the capital. There, incidents went from 8.4 in October to 10.8 by December. Similarly, IS began picking up its operations in Diyala at the same time. In November there was a low of just 0.7 incidents per day, which then rose to 1.9 by January 2016. Kirkuk had more fluctuations, but the trend was still upward starting in November when there were 0.5 incidents per day going up to 2.0 by February. Ninewa is different from Iraq’s other provinces because incidents there are just as likely IS executions as clashes with the Iraqi forces. In November however, the Peshmerga started an operation to free Sinjar, which set off a large number of counterattacks leading security figures to rise sharply from 1.6 in October to 3.9 by December. Anbar was one exception to this trend with incidents being flat during the quarter with 2.9 in October, 2.8 in November, and 2.8 in December before going upwards with the liberations of Ramadi and Fallujah leading an uptick in 2016. In Salahaddin things were heading downwards after Baiji was freed in September with incidents going from 3.1 in October to 1.5 by December. This was the Islamic State’s last big surge in attacks as in 2016 overall incidents would steadily decline even with its spring offensive.

Anbar
Oct
Nov
Dec
92 Incidents
187 Killed
105 Wounded
31 Shootings
6 IEDs
3 Suicide Car Bobs
3 Car Bombs
7 Mortars
1 Artillery
1 Rockets
38 Suicide Bombers Killed
29 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
65 Car Bombs Destroyed
86 Incidents
80 Killed
113 Wounded
28 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Suicide Car Bomb
8 Mortars
35 Suicide Bombers Killed
2 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs Killed
66 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
32 Car Bombs Destroyed
89 Incidents
306 Killed
178 Wounded
23 Shootings
2 IEDs
6 Suicide Bombers
12 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Rockets
4 Mortars
29 Suicide Bombers Killed
64 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
24 Car Bombs Destroyed

Babil
Oct
Nov
Dec
7 Incidents
2 Killed
2 Wounded
1 Shooting
2 IEDs
1 Grenade
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
6 Incidents
4 Killed
4 Wounded
3 Shootings
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
5 Incidents
4 Killed
3 Wounded
2 Shootings
2 IEDs

Baghdad
Oct
Nov
Dec
262 Incidents
373 Killed
1,040 Wounded
55 Shootings
144 IEDs
22 Sticky Bombs
2 Suicide Bombers
4 Suicide Car Bombs
6 Car Bombs
3 Grenades
2 Rockets
1 Mortar
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
261 Incidents
374 Killed
968 Wounded
61 Shootings
132 IEDs
27 Sticky Bombs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
8 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
1 Car Bomb
2 Mortars
1 Grenade
4 Suicide Bombers killed
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
2 Car Bombs Dismantled
335 Incidents
368 Killed
976 Wounded
84 Shootings
173 IEDs
30 Sticky Bombs
1 Bicycle Bomb
1 Motorcycle Bomb
1 Suicide Bomber
4 Mortars
2 Grenades
4 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Car Bomb Dismantled

Basra
Oct
Nov
Dec
5 Incidents
11 Killed
30 Wounded
1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Sound Bomb
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
3 Incidents
2 Killed
2 Shootings
1 Sound Bomb
5 Incidents
1 Killed
2 Wounded
3 Shootings
2 IEDs

Diyala
Oct
Nov
Dec
43 Incidents
105 Killed
166 Wounded
10 Shootings
10 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
13 Mortars
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
22 Incidents
18 Killed
35 Wounded
8 Shootings
4 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
1 Mortar
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
28 Incidents
22 Killed
32 Wounded
8 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
2 Car Bombs
4 Mortars




Irbil
Oct
Nov
Dec
-
1 Incident
1 Shooting
-

Karbala
Oct
Nov
Dec
-
-
1 Incident
1 Shooting
5 Suicide Bombers Killed

Kirkuk
Oct
Nov
Dec
35 Incidents
62 Killed
18 Wounded
13 Shootings
7 IEDs
2 Rockets
1 Mine
16 Incidents
26 Killed
25 Wounded
8 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
4 Suicide Bombers
1 Car Bomb
25 Incidents
42 Killed
15 Wounded
13 Shootings
1 Mortar

KRG
Oct
Nov
Dec
2 Incidents
35 Killed
2 Turkish Air Strikes
-
-

Maysan
Oct
Nov
Dec
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting
-
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting

Najaf
Oct
Nov
Dec
-
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting
-

Ninewa
Oct
Nov
Dec
52 Incidents
279 Killed
34 Wounded
16 Shootings
11 IEDs
1 Grenade
4 Rockets
2 Mortars
80 incidents
636 Killed
184 Wounded
39 Shootings
8 IEDs
8 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
2 Car Bombs
4 Mortars
3 Rockets
29 Suicide Bombers Killed
18 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
121 Incidents
737 Killed
183 Wounded
50 Shootings
33 IEDs
6 Suicide Bombers
2 Suicide Car Bombs
10 Car Bombs
7 Mortars
4 Rockets
22 Suicide Bombers Killed
12 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
3 Car Bombs Destroyed

Qadisiyah
Oct
Nov
Dec
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Sticky Bomb
-
1 Incident
1 Sound Bomb

Salahaddin
Oct
Nov
Dec
97 Incidents
133 Killed
172 Wounded
39 Shootings
20 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
2 Suicide Bombers
7 Suicide Car Bombs
5 Mortars
1 Rockets
1 Boat Bomb Destroyed
8 Suicide Bombers Killed
3 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed
16 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
39 Car Bombs Destroyed
62 Incidents
75 Killed
143 Wounded
41 Shootings
52 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
2 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Mortar
29 Suicide Bombers killed
6 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
29 Car Bombs Destroyed
48 Incidents
40 Killed
41 Wounded
24 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Rockets
3 Mortars
10 Suicide Bombers Killed
5 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
9 Car Bombs Destroyed

Sulaymaniya
Oct
Nov
Dec
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting
1 Incident
1 Wounded
1 Sticky Bomb
-


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