Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Security In Iraq, 3rd Qtr 2015


The third quarter of 2015 saw a big surge in violence by the Islamic State before a large drop off during the winter. Baghdad, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salahaddin all saw increases in security incidents, while Anbar witnessed a drop, and Diyala was unchanged.

There were a total of 2,042 security incidents recorded from July to September 2015. That averaged out to 22.1 incidents per day. This burst of violence was almost all due to attacks by the Islamic State rather than fighting during government led operations. After that surge in the summer there was a large dip in the winter. For the last quarter of the year there were 1,796 incidents, averaging out to 19.5. That was due to a large drop in attacks in October and November, before going back up in December and January 2016.

Anbar was the only main battlefront that saw a decline in incidents in the third quarter of 2015. They went from an average of 5.1 per day in July to 4.7 in August to 3.6 in September. The government was busy trying to clear the areas around Fallujah and Ramadi and the towns in between, but the Islamic State didn’t seem to take them seriously otherwise there would have been a large number of counterattacks. The violence was still intense with 57 car bombs and 6 suicide bombers. That meant the province was still one of the deadliest in Iraq. From July to August 1,526 were reported dead, and 1,418 wounded. Government shelling and Iraqi and Coalition air strikes led to 511 fatalities with another 747 injured. The fact that there were more dead than wounded recorded in this period was another sign that the authorities were suppressing casualties.

Violence went up and down in Baghdad. There were 9.1 incidents in July, going down to 8.4 in August, only to increase to 9.8 by September. That was a prelude to the huge increase in incidents that would be seen in the 2015-2016 winter when there would be an average of 10-11 incidents per day. That highlighted the shift in emphasis by the Islamic State from conventional fighting to terrorism that would continue into the next year. At the same time, the militants either lost resources or shifted them to other theaters as there were 21 car bombs and 4 suicide bombers in July, going down to 11 in August and 7 in September along with 3 suicide bombers. There would not be 21 car bombs in Baghdad in one month again.

Diyala never really saw as much violence as the rest of the country after the insurgents’ summer 2014 surge. In the 3rd quarter of 2015 there were just around 1 incident per day. Most of those were shootings and IEDs, but the Islamic State was trying mass casualty bombings a couple times a month. In July for example, there were 6 car bombs including one in a market in the middle of the month that caused 285 casualties. That was followed by 5 more car bombs in August, with another in a market leaving 130 dead and wounded. Finally, in September there were 3 vehicle bombs.

There was a slight surge in activity by the Islamic State in Kirkuk from July to September. Incidents went from 0.6 per day in July to 1.4 in August to 1.0 in September. Violence then fell off in the winter to pick up at the start of 2016. Most of those incidents were skirmishes with the peshmerga. IS was also executing a large number of people in Hawija, which is the last district in the province still under its control.

Ninewa was different from the other governorates in Iraq because many of the reported incidents were executions by the Islamic State. It as difficult to ascertain whether all of these actually happened or whether they were propaganda as they mostly came from Kurdish papers connected to the ruling parties. At the same time, residents, people who have fled, and IS’s only propaganda have shown their harsh punishments for breaking their rules. From July to August a total of 1,876 were killed, and 247 wounded. 1,407 of the fatalities were executions. There were also 160 people found in mass graves. Another 204 were reportedly killed in Coalition air strikes, and 167 injured. There were also occasional attacks upon the peshmerga lines.

The number of attacks in Salahaddin were pretty much flat from July to September. There were an average of 2.6 per day in July, 2.9 in August, and 2.6 in September. Most of those took place in Baiji and its refinery. During the quarter, the government forces consistently claimed they had almost freed the area, only to launch a brand new operation immediately afterward. Most of the victorious announcements were propaganda by various Hashd groups. For example, in July one of the main Hashd spokesman claimed that 80% of the refinery was freed and then two days later Asaib Ahl Al-Haq said only 40% was cleared. It wouldn’t be until October that the town and facility was finally liberated. After that attacks in the province would steadily decline up to the present day with only a few brief spurts of insurgent activity.

During the quarter two car bombs were dismantled and destroying in Karbala. Otherwise the Islamic State carried out no attacks in all of southern Iraq. What violence that was reported in that region was political, criminal, or tribal in nature.

Violence In Iraq 3rd Qtr 2015

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
Jul
693
2,721
3,220
Aug
695
2,474
1,789
Sep
654
1,737
1,773
Totals
2,042
6,932
6,782

Violence In Iraq 4th Qtr 2015

Incidents
Killed
Wounded
Oct
598
1,190
1,567
Nov
539
1,216
1,473
Dec
659
1,521
1,430
Totals
1,796
3,927
4,470

Anbar
Jul
Aug
Sep
160 Incidents
918 Killed
871 Wounded
77 Shootings
30 IEDs
28 Suicide Car Bombs
3 Car Bombs
12 Mortars
3 Rockets
33 Suicide Bombers killed
30 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
45 Car Bombs Destroyed
146 Incidents
371 Killed
279 Wounded
58 Shootings
16 IEDs
15 Suicide Car Bombs
8 Mortars
5 Rockets
33 Suicide Bombers Killed
30 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
47 Car Bombs Destroyed
108 Incidents
237 Killed
268 Wounded
48 Shootings
3 IEDs
6 Suicide Bombers
11 Suicide Car Bombs
13 Mortars
1 Rocket
1 Artillery
23 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed
9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
75 Car Bombs Destroyed

Babil
Jul
Aug
Sep
4 Incidents
14 Wounded
1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Grenade
8 Incidents
2 Killed
3 Wounded
2 Shootings
1 IED
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
4 Incidents
2 Killed
11 wounded
1 Shooting
2 IEDs

Baghdad
Jul
Aug
Sep
284 Incidents
521 Killed
1,240 Wounded
80 Shootings
135 IEDs
27 Sticky Bombs
4 Suicide Bombers
2 Suicide Car Bombs
19 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
262 Incidents
429 Killed
1,128 Wounded
81 Shootings
121 IEDs
26 Sticky Bombs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
11 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
1 Rockets
12 Car Bombs Destroyed
294 Incidents
384 Killed
973 Wounded
80 Shootings
125 IEDs
32 Sticky Bombs
3 Suicide Bombers
7 Car Bombs
3 Grenades
2 Rockets
2 Suicide Bombers killed
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
5 Car Bombs Destroyed

Basra
Jul
Aug
Sep
6 Incidents
2 Killed
3 Shootings
2 IEDs
-
3 Incidents
1 Wounded
2 IEDs
1 Sound Bomb

Diyala
Jul
Aug
Sep
45 Incidents
233 Killed
306 Wounded
13 Shootings
18 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
6 Car Bombs
3 Mortars
1 Rockets
45 Incidents
147 Killed
161 Wounded
14 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
2 Suicide Car Bombs
3 Car Bombs
2 Mortars
8 Car Bombs Destroyed
40 Incidents
82 Killed
85 Wounded
20 Shootings
8 IEDs
4 Sticky Bombs
3 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
2 Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed
2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
2 Car Bombs Destroyed

Dohuk
Jul
Aug
Sep
4 Incidents
12 Killed
16 Wounded
2 Turkish Air Strikes
2 Turkish Shelling
-
-

Irbil
Jul
Aug
Sep
1 Incident
3 Killed
 Turkish Air Strike
4 Incidents
45 Killed 13 Wounded
Turkish Air Strike
-

Karbala
Jul
Aug
Sep
-
2 Incidents
2 Wounded
1 Shooting
1 Suicide Car Bomb Dismantled
2 Incidents
1 Car Bomb Destroyed

Kirkuk
Jul
Aug
Sep
21 Incidents
31 Killed
33 Wounded
14 Shootings
2 IEDs
1 Mortar
45 Incidents
151 Killed
52 Wounded
18 Shootings
7 IEDs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
1 Suicide Car Bomb
2 Car Bombs
1 Grenade
3 Rockets
32 Incidents
83 Killed
172 Wounded
12 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Mortar
1 Rockets
4 Car Bombs Destroyed

KRG
Jul
Aug
Sep
260 Killed
400 Wounded
Turkish Air Strikes
1 Incident
130 Killed
Turkish Air Strike
4 Incidents
169 Killed
4 Turkish Air Strikes

Ninewa
Jul
Aug
Sep
84 Incidents
468 Killed
84 Wounded
41 Shootings
35 IEDs
1 Mortar
1 Rockets
1 Artillery
1 Suicide Bomber Killed
3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
8 Car Bombs Destroyed
92 Incidents
937 Killed + 760 Killed
35 Wounded
30 Shootings
17 IEDs
4 Rockets
9 Mortars
3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
86 Incidents
471 Killed
128 Wounded
32 Shootings
37 IEDs
3 Rockets
37 IEDs
3 Rockets
3 Mortars
1 Air Strike
1 Missiles

Qadisiya
Jul
Aug
Sep
-
-
1 Incident

Salahaddin
Jul
Aug
Sep
82 Incidents
270 Killed
251 Wounded
30 Shootings
18 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb
9 Suicide Car Bombs
4 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
1 Rocket
16 Suicide Bombers Killed
2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
17 Car Bombs Destroyed

90 Incidents
262 Killed
117 Wounded
51 Shootings
11 IEDs
2 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs
1 Suicide Car Bombs
14 Car Bombs
2 Mortars
5 Suicide Bombers Killed
11 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
162 Car Bombs Destroyed
79 Incidents
305 Killed
135 Wounded
45 Shootings
5 IEDs
2 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Car Bomb
4 Mortars
14 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed
15 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
17 Car Bombs Destroyed

Sulaymaniya
Jul
Aug
Sep
1 Incident
1 Killed
3 Wounded
1 Mortar
-
-

Wasit
Jul
Aug
Sep
1 Incident
1 Killed
2 Wounded
1 IED
-
1 Incident
4 Killed
1 Shooting


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