Security In Iraq, 3rd Qtr 2015

The third quarter of 2015 saw a big surge in violence by the Islamic State before a large drop off during the winter. Baghdad, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salahaddin all saw increases in security incidents, while Anbar witnessed a drop, and Diyala was unchanged.

There were a total of 2,042 security incidents recorded from July to September 2015. That averaged out to 22.1 incidents per day. This burst of violence was almost all due to attacks by the Islamic State rather than fighting during government led operations. After that surge in the summer there was a large dip in the winter. For the last quarter of the year there were 1,796 incidents, averaging out to 19.5. That was due to a large drop in attacks in October and November, before going back up in December and January 2016.

Anbar was the only main battlefront that saw a decline in incidents in the third quarter of 2015. They went from an average of 5.1 per day in July to 4.7 in August to 3.6 in September. The government was busy trying to clear the areas around Fallujah and Ramadi and the towns in between, but the Islamic State didn’t seem to take them seriously otherwise there would have been a large number of counterattacks. The violence was still intense with 57 car bombs and 6 suicide bombers. That meant the province was still one of the deadliest in Iraq. From July to August 1,526 were reported dead, and 1,418 wounded. Government shelling and Iraqi and Coalition air strikes led to 511 fatalities with another 747 injured. The fact that there were more dead than wounded recorded in this period was another sign that the authorities were suppressing casualties.

Violence went up and down in Baghdad. There were 9.1 incidents in July, going down to 8.4 in August, only to increase to 9.8 by September. That was a prelude to the huge increase in incidents that would be seen in the 2015-2016 winter when there would be an average of 10-11 incidents per day. That highlighted the shift in emphasis by the Islamic State from conventional fighting to terrorism that would continue into the next year. At the same time, the militants either lost resources or shifted them to other theaters as there were 21 car bombs and 4 suicide bombers in July, going down to 11 in August and 7 in September along with 3 suicide bombers. There would not be 21 car bombs in Baghdad in one month again.

Diyala never really saw as much violence as the rest of the country after the insurgents’ summer 2014 surge. In the 3^rd quarter of 2015 there were just around 1 incident per day. Most of those were shootings and IEDs, but the Islamic State was trying mass casualty bombings a couple times a month. In July for example, there were 6 car bombs including one in a market in the middle of the month that caused 285 casualties. That was followed by 5 more car bombs in August, with another in a market leaving 130 dead and wounded. Finally, in September there were 3 vehicle bombs.

There was a slight surge in activity by the Islamic State in Kirkuk from July to September. Incidents went from 0.6 per day in July to 1.4 in August to 1.0 in September. Violence then fell off in the winter to pick up at the start of 2016. Most of those incidents were skirmishes with the peshmerga. IS was also executing a large number of people in Hawija, which is the last district in the province still under its control.

Ninewa was different from the other governorates in Iraq because many of the reported incidents were executions by the Islamic State. It as difficult to ascertain whether all of these actually happened or whether they were propaganda as they mostly came from Kurdish papers connected to the ruling parties. At the same time, residents, people who have fled, and IS’s only propaganda have shown their harsh punishments for breaking their rules. From July to August a total of 1,876 were killed, and 247 wounded. 1,407 of the fatalities were executions. There were also 160 people found in mass graves. Another 204 were reportedly killed in Coalition air strikes, and 167 injured. There were also occasional attacks upon the peshmerga lines.

The number of attacks in Salahaddin were pretty much flat from July to September. There were an average of 2.6 per day in July, 2.9 in August, and 2.6 in September. Most of those took place in Baiji and its refinery. During the quarter, the government forces consistently claimed they had almost freed the area, only to launch a brand new operation immediately afterward. Most of the victorious announcements were propaganda by various Hashd groups. For example, in July one of the main Hashd spokesman claimed that 80% of the refinery was freed and then two days later Asaib Ahl Al-Haq said only 40% was cleared. It wouldn’t be until October that the town and facility was finally liberated. After that attacks in the province would steadily decline up to the present day with only a few brief spurts of insurgent activity.

During the quarter two car bombs were dismantled and destroying in Karbala. Otherwise the Islamic State carried out no attacks in all of southern Iraq. What violence that was reported in that region was political, criminal, or tribal in nature.

Violence In Iraq 3^rd Qtr 2015

	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
Jul	693	2,721	3,220
Aug	695	2,474	1,789
Sep	654	1,737	1,773
Totals	2,042	6,932	6,782

Violence In Iraq 4^th Qtr 2015

	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
Oct	598	1,190	1,567
Nov	539	1,216	1,473
Dec	659	1,521	1,430
Totals	1,796	3,927	4,470

Anbar

Jul	Aug	Sep
160 Incidents 918 Killed 871 Wounded 77 Shootings 30 IEDs 28 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs 12 Mortars 3 Rockets 33 Suicide Bombers killed 30 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 45 Car Bombs Destroyed	146 Incidents 371 Killed 279 Wounded 58 Shootings 16 IEDs 15 Suicide Car Bombs 8 Mortars 5 Rockets 33 Suicide Bombers Killed 30 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 47 Car Bombs Destroyed	108 Incidents 237 Killed 268 Wounded 48 Shootings 3 IEDs 6 Suicide Bombers 11 Suicide Car Bombs 13 Mortars 1 Rocket 1 Artillery 23 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed 9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 75 Car Bombs Destroyed

Babil

Jul	Aug	Sep
4 Incidents 14 Wounded 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Grenade	8 Incidents 2 Killed 3 Wounded 2 Shootings 1 IED 1 Car Bomb Dismantled	4 Incidents 2 Killed 11 wounded 1 Shooting 2 IEDs

Baghdad

Jul	Aug	Sep
284 Incidents 521 Killed 1,240 Wounded 80 Shootings 135 IEDs 27 Sticky Bombs 4 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 19 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 1 Car Bomb Destroyed	262 Incidents 429 Killed 1,128 Wounded 81 Shootings 121 IEDs 26 Sticky Bombs 1 Motorcycle Bomb 11 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 1 Rockets 12 Car Bombs Destroyed	294 Incidents 384 Killed 973 Wounded 80 Shootings 125 IEDs 32 Sticky Bombs 3 Suicide Bombers 7 Car Bombs 3 Grenades 2 Rockets 2 Suicide Bombers killed 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed 5 Car Bombs Destroyed

Basra

Jul	Aug	Sep
6 Incidents 2 Killed 3 Shootings 2 IEDs	-	3 Incidents 1 Wounded 2 IEDs 1 Sound Bomb

Diyala

Jul	Aug	Sep
45 Incidents 233 Killed 306 Wounded 13 Shootings 18 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 6 Car Bombs 3 Mortars 1 Rockets	45 Incidents 147 Killed 161 Wounded 14 Shootings 10 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs 2 Mortars 8 Car Bombs Destroyed	40 Incidents 82 Killed 85 Wounded 20 Shootings 8 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 3 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 2 Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed 2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed

Dohuk

Jul	Aug	Sep
4 Incidents 12 Killed 16 Wounded 2 Turkish Air Strikes 2 Turkish Shelling	-	-

Irbil

Jul	Aug	Sep
1 Incident 3 Killed  Turkish Air Strike	4 Incidents 45 Killed 13 Wounded Turkish Air Strike	-

Karbala

Jul	Aug	Sep
-	2 Incidents 2 Wounded 1 Shooting 1 Suicide Car Bomb Dismantled	2 Incidents 1 Car Bomb Destroyed

Kirkuk

Jul	Aug	Sep
21 Incidents 31 Killed 33 Wounded 14 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Mortar	45 Incidents 151 Killed 52 Wounded 18 Shootings 7 IEDs 1 Motorcycle Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Car Bombs 1 Grenade 3 Rockets	32 Incidents 83 Killed 172 Wounded 12 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Mortar 1 Rockets 4 Car Bombs Destroyed

KRG

Jul	Aug	Sep
260 Killed 400 Wounded Turkish Air Strikes	1 Incident 130 Killed Turkish Air Strike	4 Incidents 169 Killed 4 Turkish Air Strikes

Ninewa

Jul	Aug	Sep
84 Incidents 468 Killed 84 Wounded 41 Shootings 35 IEDs 1 Mortar 1 Rockets 1 Artillery 1 Suicide Bomber Killed 3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 8 Car Bombs Destroyed	92 Incidents 937 Killed + 760 Killed 35 Wounded 30 Shootings 17 IEDs 4 Rockets 9 Mortars 3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed	86 Incidents 471 Killed 128 Wounded 32 Shootings 37 IEDs 3 Rockets 37 IEDs 3 Rockets 3 Mortars 1 Air Strike 1 Missiles

Qadisiya

Jul	Aug	Sep
-	-	1 Incident

Salahaddin

Jul	Aug	Sep
82 Incidents 270 Killed 251 Wounded 30 Shootings 18 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 9 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 1 Rocket 16 Suicide Bombers Killed 2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 17 Car Bombs Destroyed	90 Incidents 262 Killed 117 Wounded 51 Shootings 11 IEDs 2 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bombs 14 Car Bombs 2 Mortars 5 Suicide Bombers Killed 11 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 162 Car Bombs Destroyed	79 Incidents 305 Killed 135 Wounded 45 Shootings 5 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 4 Mortars 14 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed 15 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 17 Car Bombs Destroyed

Sulaymaniya

Jul	Aug	Sep
1 Incident 1 Killed 3 Wounded 1 Mortar	-	-

Wasit

Jul	Aug	Sep
1 Incident 1 Killed 2 Wounded 1 IED	-	1 Incident 4 Killed 1 Shooting