The Iraqi army, Federal Police and Hashd were moving forward
on November 2, while the Golden Division had a temporary pause for other forces
to catch up with it. The Golden Division entered the outer eastern outskirts of
Mosul, but then halted
as it was far ahead of other units. Being so far ahead opens up the forces to
counterattacks from the flanks and rear by Islamic State fighters. Two of those
eastern areas Gogjali and Karama were declared freed by
the Golden Division, but fighting was still going on in the former and the
latter was just entered. In the south the army and Federal Police seized 15
villages, in the north one more, while the Hashd took 8 in the southwest, although
one was said to have been liberated a few days before. 15 Hashd were killed and
46 wounded during the fighting. Only
occasional press reports have any coverage of casualties.
Some Iraqi units have made better progress than others. So
far the Golden Division has advanced the farthest having
reached the industrial districts of eastern Mosul. The army’s 9th
Division is moving in two columns in the south with one 3.5 km from Mosul and
the other caught up in IS defenses 25 km away. The latter is now giving up that
line of advance and shifting to the east to joint the Golden Division. The
Federal Police are 15 km to the south, the 15th Division 30 km to
the south, and the 16th Division and ex-Governor Nujafi’s Hashd
al-Watani 9 km to the north. The Kurds have stopped their operations and are
digging in 4-10 km northeast of the city. The joint forces are now focusing
upon three main corridors towards Mosul from the west, east and northeast.
The Wall Street Journal interviewed
two commanders in the Golden Division who talked about not repeating the
mistakes made by the Iraqi forces before in Ninewa and the opportunity this
campaign provided to win back locals. General Abbas Jubouri told the Journal
that his unit needed to make sure they did not act like the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF) performed before in the Mosul area, referring to how they
alienated the populace. He went on to note that led to people feeling
marginalized, which opened the door for the Islamic State to gain support.
General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi added that now the population wanted the army to
free them. This highlighted a point
made by Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in a
paper he wrote about past attempts to secure Mosul that this campaign offers
the first opportunity since 2003 for the ISF and central government to win over
the locals and be seen as liberators. Unfortunately the first signs of abuse
have arisen.
Amnesty International received
stories that a Sabawai tribal armed group, Hashd al-Ashairi carried out abuses
in three towns south of Mosul. Amnesty talked with local officials and
eyewitnesses that said the tribal fighters entered Makuk, Tal al-Shaeir and
Douizat al-Sufla before the Iraqi security forces arrived and abused people
they accused of being Islamic State members and sympathizers. That included
beatings, electrocutions, tying people to vehicles and being driven around, as
well as being put into cages. Amnesty believed these actions were not only
motivated by revenge for IS crimes, but tribal feuds as well. Much is put on
the threat of Shiite forces abusing Sunnis in security campaigns, but there are
also tribal groups like this that show Sunni-Sunnis splits, and how deeply the
Iraqi nation has been wounded by the war against the Islamic State, and how
difficult it will be to heal them.
Another Hashd group talked about expanding the war into
Syria after Mosul is liberated. The secretary general of Kataib Sayid
al-Shuhada told
the press that they would fight IS in Syria after Tal Afar was taken. He
joined several others who have made similar comments
in the last few days. There are already thousands of Iraqis fighting in
militias sponsored by Iran to support Assad’s government, but these most recent
words seem to imply that Iraqi units could formally cross the border into Syria
from Ninewa after this campaign is done. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi has said
nothing on this matter, although his National Security Adviser supported the
idea.
In Mosul itself there were more reports
that small resistance groups were attacking IS members. 90 former ISF members
were also said to have been arrested out of fear that they were providing
intelligence to the government and placed in a school converted into a military
outpost.
Finally, Premier Abadi warned Turkey that if they entered
Iraq to take part in the Mosul operation they would pay for it. Turkey’s
Foreign Minister responded by saying that Iraq had no better friend then
Ankara. This was just the latest in the war of words between the two countries,
and came after Turkey deployed extra forces to the border near Tal Afar
threatening the Hashd if they took the town.
SOURCES
Amnesty International, “Iraq: Tribal militia tortured
detainees in revenge attacks during Mosul offensive,” 11/2/16
BBC, “Mosul battle: Iraqi troops secure foothold in eastern
outskirts,” 11/2/16
Buratha News, "Recent development in the field, until 21:45
pm Wednesday 02 11 2016," 11/2/16
Al Forat, "Announcement of freeing 14 villages and reach the
outskirts of Hamam al-Alil," 11/2/16
El-Ghobashy, Tamer and Nabhan, Ali, “Iraqi Forces Show New
Face in Mosul,” Wall Street Journal, 1/2/16
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Nov. 2, 2016,” 11/2/16
Knights, Michael, “How to Secure Mosul, Lessons from
2008-2014,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, October 2016
- “IS conflict: Battle for Mosul on schedule, but not
exactly to plan,” BBC, 11/2/16
Al Mada, "Freed village in Bashiqa and raised the Iraqi flag
over the buildings," 11/2/16
Al Masalah, "Badr announces the liberation of four villages
in Nineveh," 11/2/16
Mostafa, Mohamed, “ISIS inside Syria after liberating Tel
Afar,” Iraqi News, 11/2/16
Rudaw, “After warning by Iraqi PM, Turkey says Baghdad has
no greater friend than Ankara,” 11/2/16
- "MOSUL OFFENSIVE, DAY 17: LIVE UPDATES," 11/2/16
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