The Islamic State is
currently in a transition phase. It has been defeated on the battlefield and is
switching back to an insurgency while trying to rebuild its cadres. The U.S.
led Coalition recently said that it only numbered around 1,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, a
fraction of the amount it had just a year ago. In September and October the
militant’s newsletter Al-Naba talked about no longer engaging in coventional battles as the
group was suffering heavy losses and facing Coalition air strikes. It now has
to not only get new followers, but set up networks, and find financing now that
it no longer holds any territory in Iraq.
IS has always relied
upon an array of criminal activities to raise money. Recently, a Hashd leader in Diyala for example, told the press that the organization had gotten around $500,000 from
kidnappings in Diyala alone in 2017. Extortion and charging fees on things like
trucking are other means of gathering revenues. There is a huge amount of
rebuilding to be done and Iraq is notoriously corrupt, which opens up the
opportunity for the militants to take advantage of contracts through kickbacks
and protection money. To counter these moves the Iraqi forces need to use
intelligence and police work. It has talked about the former, but is
notoriously weak in the latter, especially because Baghdad made no post-IS
security strategy and has not brought back the local police in many provinces
that were liberated over the last three years. How effective the Islamists are
and whether the Iraqi government can block their rebirth cannot be determined
now. It will take at least a year to see who will win this second battle. It
will be just as important as the last one because it will largely shape whether
Iraq is able to reap the benefits of its victory over the Islamic State or
slide back into terrorism and insurgency.
SOURCES
Hassan, Hassan,
“Insurgents Again: The Islamic State’s Calculated Reversion To Attrition In The
Syria-Iraq Border Region And Beyond,” CTC Sentinel, 12/21/17
Mostafa, Nehal,
“Islamic State collected US$500,000 through abduction in Diyala: Official,”
Iraqi News, 12/26/17
Reuters, “Less than
1,000 IS fighters remain in Iraq and Syria, coalition says,” 12/27/17
Temple-Rason, Dina, “U.S. Moves To Lock Up ISIS’s Abundant
War Chest,” NPR, 6/20/14
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